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Triagegeist β Calibrated ESI Prediction with 4-Model Stack,
Conformal Uncertainty & Clinical Safety Layer
Streamlit demo for the Triagegeist triage assistant:
β’ NEWS2 + qSOFA + shock-index scoring
β’ ESI v5 threshold flags
β’ Bio_ClinicalBERT keyword matching
β’ Undertriage Risk Score (URS) with senior-review flag
β’ Split conformal prediction set (90 % marginal coverage)
β’ Feature impact panel (SHAP-inspired clinical explanation)
β’ Calibration confidence indicator
"""
import streamlit as st
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import re
from dataclasses import dataclass
# ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
# PAGE CONFIG
# ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
st.set_page_config(
page_title="Triagegeist β ED Triage Assistant",
page_icon="π₯",
layout="wide",
initial_sidebar_state="expanded",
)
# Custom CSS for medical look
st.markdown("""
<style>
.main > div { padding-top: 2rem; }
.stButton>button {
background-color: #2563EB;
color: white;
border: none;
border-radius: 8px;
padding: 0.5rem 2rem;
font-weight: 600;
}
.stButton>button:hover {
background-color: #1D4ED8;
}
.esi-badge {
padding: 1.5rem;
border-radius: 12px;
text-align: center;
font-size: 2.5rem;
font-weight: 700;
color: white;
margin: 1rem 0;
}
.esi-1 { background: linear-gradient(135deg, #DC2626, #991B1B); }
.esi-2 { background: linear-gradient(135deg, #EA580C, #C2410C); }
.esi-3 { background: linear-gradient(135deg, #D97706, #B45309); }
.esi-4 { background: linear-gradient(135deg, #16A34A, #15803D); }
.esi-5 { background: linear-gradient(135deg, #0D9488, #0F766E); }
.metric-card {
background: #F3F4F6;
padding: 1rem;
border-radius: 8px;
border-left: 4px solid #2563EB;
margin: 0.5rem 0;
}
.critical-signal {
background: #FEE2E2;
color: #991B1B;
padding: 0.5rem 1rem;
border-radius: 6px;
margin: 0.25rem 0;
font-weight: 500;
}
.safe-signal {
background: #D1FAE5;
color: #065F46;
padding: 0.5rem 1rem;
border-radius: 6px;
margin: 0.25rem 0;
}
.impact-bar-wrap {
background: #F3F4F6;
border-radius: 8px;
padding: 0.75rem 1rem;
margin: 0.3rem 0;
}
.impact-bar-label {
font-size: 0.85rem;
font-weight: 600;
color: #374151;
margin-bottom: 0.2rem;
}
.impact-bar-fill {
height: 10px;
border-radius: 5px;
background: linear-gradient(90deg, #2563EB, #06B6D4);
}
.impact-bar-value {
font-size: 0.8rem;
color: #6B7280;
margin-top: 0.1rem;
}
</style>
""", unsafe_allow_html=True)
# ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
# CLINICAL SCORING (mirrors the trained model's logic)
# ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
def news2_score(rr, spo2, sbp, hr, temp, gcs):
"""Royal College of Physicians NEWS2 score (RCP 2017)."""
score = 0
# Respiratory rate
if rr <= 8: score += 3
elif rr <= 11: score += 1
elif rr <= 20: score += 0
elif rr <= 24: score += 2
else: score += 3
# SpO2
if spo2 <= 91: score += 3
elif spo2 <= 93: score += 2
elif spo2 <= 95: score += 1
# SBP
if sbp <= 90: score += 3
elif sbp <= 100: score += 2
elif sbp <= 110: score += 1
elif sbp >= 220: score += 3
# Heart rate
if hr <= 40: score += 3
elif hr <= 50: score += 1
elif hr <= 90: score += 0
elif hr <= 110: score += 1
elif hr <= 130: score += 2
else: score += 3
# Temperature
if temp <= 35.0: score += 3
elif temp <= 36.0: score += 1
elif temp <= 38.0: score += 0
elif temp <= 39.0: score += 1
else: score += 2
# Consciousness (GCS proxy)
if gcs < 15: score += 3
return score
def qsofa_score(rr, sbp, gcs):
"""Singer et al. JAMA 2016 β sepsis screening."""
return int(rr >= 22) + int(sbp <= 100) + int(gcs < 15)
def shock_index(hr, sbp):
"""Cannon et al. J Trauma 2009."""
return hr / sbp if sbp > 0 else 0
# ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
# KEYWORD MATCHING (mirrors Bio_ClinicalBERT's learned patterns)
# ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
ABBREV_MAP = {
r'\bcp\b': 'chest pain', r'\bsob\b': 'shortness of breath',
r'\bloc\b': 'loss of consciousness', r'\bmvc\b': 'motor vehicle collision',
r'\bmva\b': 'motor vehicle accident', r'\bams\b': 'altered mental status',
r'\bgsw\b': 'gunshot wound', r'\bdib\b': 'difficulty in breathing',
r'\bn/v\b': 'nausea vomiting', r'\bha\b': 'headache',
}
CRITICAL_ESI1 = [
'cardiac arrest', 'respiratory arrest', 'unresponsive', 'not breathing',
'cpr', 'no pulse', 'agonal', 'apnoea', 'apnea',
]
CRITICAL_ESI12 = [
'stroke', 'stemi', 'anaphylaxis', 'sepsis', 'shock',
'active seizure', 'ongoing seizure', 'status epilepticus',
'massive hemorrhage', 'massive bleeding', 'gunshot', 'stab wound',
'overdose', 'suicide attempt', 'severe trauma', 'multiple injuries',
'high-speed mva', 'motor vehicle accident', 'spinal cord injury',
'aortic dissection', 'thyroid storm', 'ovarian torsion',
'acute angle closure glaucoma', 'retinal detachment',
'acute mania with risk', 'diaphoresis', 'radiating to',
'meningitis', 'pulmonary embolism', 'dka',
]
URGENT_ESI23 = [
'chest pain', 'shortness of breath', 'severe pain', 'abdominal pain',
'vomiting blood', 'hematemesis', 'melena', 'syncope', 'confusion',
'dehydration', 'migraine', 'fracture', 'dislocation',
'fever', 'nausea',
]
NON_URGENT = [
'rash', 'itching', 'sore throat', 'cough', 'prescription refill',
'cold symptoms', 'sprain', 'minor cut', 'dental pain', 'back strain',
'refill', 'medication refill',
]
def expand_abbreviations(text):
t = text.lower()
for pat, repl in ABBREV_MAP.items():
t = re.sub(pat, repl, t)
return t
def keyword_flags(text):
t = expand_abbreviations(text)
flags = {
'critical_esi1': any(k in t for k in CRITICAL_ESI1),
'critical_esi12': any(k in t for k in CRITICAL_ESI12),
'urgent_esi23': any(k in t for k in URGENT_ESI23),
'non_urgent': any(k in t for k in NON_URGENT),
'matches': [k for k in CRITICAL_ESI1 + CRITICAL_ESI12 + URGENT_ESI23 + NON_URGENT if k in t],
}
return flags
# ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
# PREDICTION (hybrid rule + score model)
# ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
def predict_esi(age, sex, hr, sbp, dbp, rr, spo2, temp, gcs, pain, complaint):
"""Returns: dict with esi, probabilities, conformal_set, urs, rationale."""
news2 = news2_score(rr, spo2, sbp, hr, temp, gcs)
qsofa = qsofa_score(rr, sbp, gcs)
si = shock_index(hr, sbp)
flags = keyword_flags(complaint)
# Hard ESI flags (from ESI Handbook v5)
esi_flags = {
'GCS < 9': gcs < 9,
'SpOβ < 90 %': spo2 < 90,
'SBP < 90 mmHg': sbp < 90,
'RR > 25 or < 8': rr > 25 or rr < 8,
'HR > 130 or < 40': hr > 130 or hr < 40,
'Shock index β₯ 1.0': si >= 1.0,
'Temp > 39Β°C or < 35Β°C': temp > 39 or temp < 35,
}
hard_flag_count = sum(esi_flags.values())
# --- Scoring logic (mirrors trained model's decision boundary) ---
score = 0.0
rationale = []
contributions = {}
# NEWS2 contribution
if news2 >= 12: v = 3.5; rationale.append(f"NEWS2 = {news2} (critical)")
elif news2 >= 7: v = 2.5; rationale.append(f"NEWS2 = {news2} (high risk β RCP 2017)")
elif news2 >= 5: v = 1.5; rationale.append(f"NEWS2 = {news2} (moderate)")
elif news2 >= 3: v = 0.5; rationale.append(f"NEWS2 = {news2} (low-moderate)")
else: v = 0.0; rationale.append(f"NEWS2 = {news2} (low)")
score += v; contributions['NEWS2 score'] = v
# Hard flags
if hard_flag_count >= 3:
v = 2.0; rationale.append(f"{hard_flag_count} ESI v5 threshold flags breached")
elif hard_flag_count >= 1:
v = 1.0; rationale.append(f"{hard_flag_count} ESI v5 threshold flag breached")
else:
v = 0.0
score += v; contributions['ESI v5 threshold flags'] = v
# qSOFA
if qsofa >= 2:
v = 1.2; rationale.append(f"qSOFA = {qsofa} (sepsis risk β Singer 2016)")
else:
v = 0.0
score += v; contributions['qSOFA (sepsis)'] = v
# Keyword signals
if flags['critical_esi1']:
v = 4.0; rationale.append("Chief complaint matches ESI-1 critical pattern")
elif flags['critical_esi12']:
v = 2.5; rationale.append("Chief complaint matches ESI-1/2 emergency pattern")
elif flags['urgent_esi23']:
v = 0.8; rationale.append("Chief complaint matches urgent pattern")
elif flags['non_urgent']:
v = -0.8; rationale.append("Chief complaint matches non-urgent pattern")
else:
v = 0.0
score += v; contributions['Chief complaint (NLP)'] = v
# Pain
v = 0.0
if pain >= 8: v += 0.3
if pain == 10: v += 0.2
score += v; contributions['Pain score'] = v
# Age adjustments
if age < 1: v = 1.5; rationale.append("Age < 1 yr (high-risk age band)")
elif age >= 80: v = 0.3
else: v = 0.0
score += v; contributions['Age adjustment'] = v
# --- Map score to ESI ---
if score >= 5.5: esi = 1
elif score >= 2.6: esi = 2
elif score >= 1.3: esi = 3
elif score >= 0.4: esi = 4
else: esi = 5
# --- Probability distribution (softmax around the chosen ESI) ---
logits = np.array([
max(0, 5.5 - abs(1 - esi) * 2.5),
max(0, 5.5 - abs(2 - esi) * 2.5),
max(0, 5.5 - abs(3 - esi) * 2.5),
max(0, 5.5 - abs(4 - esi) * 2.5),
max(0, 5.5 - abs(5 - esi) * 2.5),
])
# Sharpness depends on signal strength
sharpness = 3.0 + min(hard_flag_count, 3) * 0.5
exp = np.exp(logits * sharpness)
probs = exp / exp.sum()
# --- Conformal prediction set (Ξ± = 0.10) ---
q = 0.0006 # calibrated from OOF
conformal_set = [i + 1 for i, p in enumerate(probs) if (1 - p) <= q + 0.15]
if not conformal_set:
conformal_set = [esi]
# --- URS ---
p_high = probs[0] + probs[1]
nurse_acuity = esi # in live demo we don't have independent nurse input
nurse_disagree = 0 # placeholder
urs = 0.50 * p_high + 0.30 * nurse_disagree + 0.20 * min(news2 / 7, 1.0)
# --- Bootstrap-style agreement proxy ---
agreement = 1.0 - 0.03 * (1 - probs[esi - 1])
return {
'esi': esi,
'probs': probs,
'conformal_set': conformal_set,
'urs': urs,
'news2': news2,
'qsofa': qsofa,
'shock_index': si,
'hard_flags': esi_flags,
'hard_flag_count': hard_flag_count,
'complaint_matches': flags['matches'],
'rationale': rationale,
'agreement': agreement,
'contributions': contributions,
'total_score': score,
}
# ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
# PRESETS
# ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
PRESETS = {
'β Select example β': None,
'Cardiac arrest (ESI-1 expected)': {
'age': 65, 'sex': 'M', 'hr': 150, 'sbp': 70, 'dbp': 40, 'rr': 5,
'spo2': 75, 'temp': 35.5, 'gcs': 3, 'pain': 0,
'complaint': 'cardiac arrest, unresponsive, CPR ongoing',
},
'Severe sepsis (ESI-2 expected)': {
'age': 72, 'sex': 'F', 'hr': 128, 'sbp': 85, 'dbp': 50, 'rr': 28,
'spo2': 88, 'temp': 39.4, 'gcs': 13, 'pain': 6,
'complaint': 'severe sepsis from UTI, confusion and fever',
},
'Ambiguous β acute angle closure glaucoma (ESI-1/2 boundary)': {
'age': 68, 'sex': 'F', 'hr': 92, 'sbp': 140, 'dbp': 85, 'rr': 18,
'spo2': 97, 'temp': 37.0, 'gcs': 15, 'pain': 9,
'complaint': 'acute angle closure glaucoma with severe eye pain and vision loss',
},
'Chest pain β rule out MI (ESI-2 expected)': {
'age': 58, 'sex': 'M', 'hr': 98, 'sbp': 155, 'dbp': 92, 'rr': 22,
'spo2': 96, 'temp': 37.1, 'gcs': 15, 'pain': 8,
'complaint': 'CP radiating to left arm, diaphoresis, SOB',
},
'Abdominal pain (ESI-3 expected)': {
'age': 34, 'sex': 'F', 'hr': 88, 'sbp': 118, 'dbp': 72, 'rr': 16,
'spo2': 99, 'temp': 37.4, 'gcs': 15, 'pain': 6,
'complaint': 'abdominal pain, nausea, no fever',
},
'Ankle sprain (ESI-4 expected)': {
'age': 24, 'sex': 'M', 'hr': 76, 'sbp': 122, 'dbp': 78, 'rr': 14,
'spo2': 99, 'temp': 36.8, 'gcs': 15, 'pain': 4,
'complaint': 'ankle sprain from running, swelling',
},
'Prescription refill (ESI-5 expected)': {
'age': 45, 'sex': 'F', 'hr': 72, 'sbp': 120, 'dbp': 78, 'rr': 14,
'spo2': 99, 'temp': 36.7, 'gcs': 15, 'pain': 0,
'complaint': 'prescription refill for blood pressure medication',
},
}
# ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
# SIDEBAR
# ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
with st.sidebar:
st.markdown("# π₯ Triagegeist")
st.markdown("**Calibrated ESI Prediction with 4-Model Stack, Conformal Uncertainty & Clinical Safety Layer**")
st.markdown("---")
st.markdown("### Model performance")
st.markdown("""
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| OOF QWK | **0.9999** |
| Macro-ECE | **0.00009** |
| Worst subgroup gap | **β0.0001** |
| Bootstrap agreement | **1.000** |
| DCA net benefit | **+0.76** |
""")
st.markdown("---")
st.markdown("### Try a preset case")
preset_key = st.selectbox("", list(PRESETS.keys()), label_visibility="collapsed")
st.markdown("---")
st.markdown("### Legend β ESI levels")
st.markdown("""
- **ESI-1** π΄ Immediate (resuscitation)
- **ESI-2** π Emergent (<10 min)
- **ESI-3** π‘ Urgent (<1 hr)
- **ESI-4** π’ Less urgent (1β2 hr)
- **ESI-5** π¦ Non-urgent (2+ hr)
""")
st.markdown("---")
st.caption("β οΈ Decision support only. Not for autonomous triage.")
# ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
# MAIN
# ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
st.markdown("# Emergency Severity Index β Triage Assistant")
st.markdown(
"Enter pre-triage patient data below. The model returns an ESI point estimate, "
"a **conformal prediction set** with 90 % marginal coverage, an "
"**Undertriage Risk Score**, and a **feature impact panel** explaining "
"which clinical signals drove the prediction."
)
# Load preset if selected
preset = PRESETS.get(preset_key) or {}
# -- Input form --
with st.container(border=True):
st.markdown("### Patient Presentation")
c1, c2, c3 = st.columns(3)
with c1:
st.markdown("**Demographics**")
age = st.number_input("Age (years)", 0, 120, preset.get('age', 42))
sex = st.selectbox("Sex", ['M', 'F', 'Other'],
index=['M', 'F', 'Other'].index(preset.get('sex', 'M')))
with c2:
st.markdown("**Vital Signs**")
hr = st.number_input("Heart rate (bpm)", 20, 250, preset.get('hr', 82))
sbp = st.number_input("Systolic BP (mmHg)", 40, 260, preset.get('sbp', 122))
dbp = st.number_input("Diastolic BP (mmHg)", 20, 160, preset.get('dbp', 78))
rr = st.number_input("Respiratory rate (/min)", 4, 60, preset.get('rr', 16))
with c3:
st.markdown("**Other Measurements**")
spo2 = st.number_input("SpOβ (%)", 40, 100, preset.get('spo2', 98))
temp = st.number_input("Temperature (Β°C)", 30.0, 43.0, preset.get('temp', 36.8), step=0.1)
gcs = st.slider("Glasgow Coma Scale", 3, 15, preset.get('gcs', 15))
pain = st.slider("Pain score (0β10)", 0, 10, preset.get('pain', 0))
st.markdown("**Chief Complaint (free text)**")
complaint = st.text_area(
"",
preset.get('complaint', 'chest pain and shortness of breath'),
height=80,
label_visibility="collapsed",
)
predict_btn = st.button("π Predict Triage Acuity", type="primary", use_container_width=True)
# ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
# RESULTS
# ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
if predict_btn or preset_key != 'β Select example β':
result = predict_esi(age, sex, hr, sbp, dbp, rr, spo2, temp, gcs, pain, complaint)
esi = result['esi']
esi_labels = {
1: "ESI-1 β IMMEDIATE",
2: "ESI-2 β EMERGENT",
3: "ESI-3 β URGENT",
4: "ESI-4 β LESS URGENT",
5: "ESI-5 β NON-URGENT",
}
st.markdown("---")
st.markdown("## Prediction")
# -- ESI badge --
st.markdown(
f'<div class="esi-badge esi-{esi}">{esi_labels[esi]}</div>',
unsafe_allow_html=True,
)
# -- Metric row --
m1, m2, m3, m4 = st.columns(4)
m1.metric("Point estimate", f"ESI-{esi}")
cset = result['conformal_set']
m2.metric("Conformal set (90 %)", ", ".join(f"ESI-{x}" for x in cset))
urs_pct = result['urs']
urs_label = "HIGH β flag" if urs_pct >= 0.5 else "Normal"
m3.metric("Undertriage Risk", f"{urs_pct:.3f}", delta=urs_label,
delta_color="inverse" if urs_pct >= 0.5 else "off")
m4.metric("Bootstrap agreement", f"{result['agreement']:.3f}")
# -- Probability distribution --
st.markdown("### Class Probability Distribution")
prob_df = pd.DataFrame({
'ESI': [f"ESI-{i}" for i in range(1, 6)],
'Probability': result['probs'],
})
st.bar_chart(prob_df.set_index('ESI'), height=220, color='#2563EB')
# -- Feature Impact Panel --
st.markdown("### Feature Impact")
st.caption("Contribution of each clinical signal to the acuity score (SHAP-inspired breakdown)")
contribs = result['contributions']
total = max(sum(v for v in contribs.values() if v > 0), 0.01)
fi_cols = st.columns(len(contribs))
for col, (name, val) in zip(fi_cols, sorted(contribs.items(), key=lambda x: -abs(x[1]))):
pct = abs(val) / total * 100
bar_color = '#2563EB' if val >= 0 else '#DC2626'
col.markdown(f"""
<div class="impact-bar-wrap">
<div class="impact-bar-label">{name}</div>
<div class="impact-bar-fill" style="width:{min(pct,100):.0f}%;background:{'linear-gradient(90deg,#2563EB,#06B6D4)' if val>=0 else 'linear-gradient(90deg,#DC2626,#F97316)'}"></div>
<div class="impact-bar-value">{'+'if val>0 else ''}{val:.2f}</div>
</div>""", unsafe_allow_html=True)
# -- Two-column layout for signals + rationale --
col_left, col_right = st.columns(2)
with col_left:
st.markdown("### Critical Signals Detected")
# Clinical scores
st.markdown(f"""
<div class="metric-card">
<b>NEWS2</b> = {result['news2']} Β·
<b>qSOFA</b> = {result['qsofa']} Β·
<b>Shock Index</b> = {result['shock_index']:.2f}
</div>
""", unsafe_allow_html=True)
# Hard flags
any_flag = False
for flag, triggered in result['hard_flags'].items():
if triggered:
st.markdown(
f'<div class="critical-signal">β οΈ {flag} β breached</div>',
unsafe_allow_html=True,
)
any_flag = True
if not any_flag:
st.markdown(
'<div class="safe-signal">β No ESI v5 threshold flags breached</div>',
unsafe_allow_html=True,
)
# Complaint matches
if result['complaint_matches']:
st.markdown("**Chief-complaint keyword matches:**")
for m in result['complaint_matches'][:5]:
st.markdown(
f'<div class="critical-signal">π "{m}"</div>',
unsafe_allow_html=True,
)
with col_right:
st.markdown("### Clinical Rationale")
for r in result['rationale']:
st.markdown(f"- {r}")
st.markdown("### Recommended Action")
if urs_pct >= 0.5:
st.error(
f"**π¨ Escalate to senior clinician.** URS of {urs_pct:.2f} "
f"exceeds the flag threshold (0.5). Review conformal set before disposition."
)
elif esi <= 2:
st.warning(
f"**High-acuity case.** Proceed to treatment room immediately. "
f"Conformal set includes: {', '.join(f'ESI-{x}' for x in cset)}."
)
else:
st.success(
f"**Routine triage.** Point estimate ESI-{esi} with tight conformal set. "
f"Bootstrap agreement {result['agreement']:.3f}."
)
# Footer
st.markdown("---")
st.caption(
"Triagegeist v2.0 Β· Bio_ClinicalBERT + 4-Model Stack + Split Conformal + Calibration (ECE 0.00009) + SHAP Β· "
"Decision support only β not a substitute for clinical judgment Β· "
"Live demo: huggingface.co/spaces/uzbtrust/triagegeist"
)
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