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| // A well-formed forecast is a candidate for manual resolution. Source prose is not a | |
| // resolver, and no automatic resolver is registered for generic chat cards. Keep the | |
| // candidate checks aligned with engine/experimental_p/ingest_cards.py. | |
| export type NeedleCardLike = { | |
| kind?: string; | |
| resolution_date?: string | null; | |
| dated_metric?: string | null; | |
| threshold?: number | null; | |
| threshold_dir?: string | null; | |
| probability?: number | null; | |
| }; | |
| export type NeedleVerdict = { | |
| // Reserved for a server-verified outcome/resolver contract. Never inferred from model text. | |
| scorable: false; | |
| structured: boolean; | |
| reason: string; | |
| }; | |
| const VAGUE_METRIC = /^(n\/?a|tbd|to be determined|unknown|various|multiple( sources)?|the market|market data|news|reports?|analysts?|sources?|public data|official data)\.?$/i; | |
| export function validResolutionDate(value: unknown): value is string { | |
| if (typeof value !== 'string' || !/^\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}$/.test(value)) return false; | |
| const time = Date.parse(`${value}T00:00:00Z`); | |
| return Number.isFinite(time) && new Date(time).toISOString().slice(0, 10) === value; | |
| } | |
| /** Assess structure only. A future date, source URL, resolver name or claimed outcome supplied | |
| * by the model cannot make a card automatically scorable. Manual review remains available. */ | |
| export function needleVerdict(card: NeedleCardLike, now: Date = new Date()): NeedleVerdict { | |
| const no = (reason: string): NeedleVerdict => ({scorable: false, structured: false, reason}); | |
| if (!card || typeof card !== 'object') return no('no forecast'); | |
| const rd = typeof card.resolution_date === 'string' ? card.resolution_date.trim() : ''; | |
| if (!validResolutionDate(rd)) return no('no valid dated resolution'); | |
| if (rd <= now.toISOString().slice(0, 10)) return no('resolution date is not in the future'); | |
| const metric = typeof card.dated_metric === 'string' ? card.dated_metric.trim() : ''; | |
| if (metric.length < 8 || VAGUE_METRIC.test(metric)) return no('no proposed resolution source'); | |
| if (card.kind !== 'binary' && card.kind !== 'conditional' && card.kind !== 'bayes') { | |
| if (typeof card.threshold !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(card.threshold)) return no('no numeric threshold'); | |
| if (!['>=', '>', '<=', '<'].includes(card.threshold_dir ?? '')) return no('no threshold direction'); | |
| } | |
| if (typeof card.probability !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(card.probability) || card.probability < 0 || card.probability > 1) return no('probability must be between 0 and 1'); | |
| return {scorable: false, structured: true, reason: 'manual resolution required; source and outcome are unverified'}; | |
| } | |