Thibaut Forest Claude Opus 5 (1M context) commited on
Commit ·
2000281
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Parent(s): 227c214
Phase 54: exhaustive re-adjudication complete (zero survivors); CV settles - exact leave-one-building-out, single value, champion 1877.3
Browse files- EXPERIMENTS.md +44 -0
EXPERIMENTS.md
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@@ -2853,3 +2853,47 @@ under the deployment-shaped instruments.** Champion 3c7b883 / current head
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(static @ 0.8, cert and pooling off) stands. Endgame per the user's mechanics
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(private = user-selected past versions): score the current head publicly; if
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~1661, select the head for private (robustness-hardened); else select 3c7b883.
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(static @ 0.8, cert and pooling off) stands. Endgame per the user's mechanics
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(private = user-selected past versions): score the current head publicly; if
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~1661, select the head for private (robustness-hardened); else select 3c7b883.
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## Phase 54 - full re-adjudication complete + the CV settles (user-driven)
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### (a) The exhaustive re-try of every rejected idea (user directive)
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10-agent sweep over the entire EXPERIMENTS.md candidate history on the
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then-current instrument pair, base reproduced at 1661.65 in every arm.
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All planners (14 arms, +343..+954, all REJECT), all model families (4 slices,
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~50 arms, zero ALIVE - logbag==logistic now confirmed on four instruments),
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all feature re-adds (calendar/vproj/ranks/fht_days/temp30/dbz/stale2 -
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REJECT; temp_mean upgraded from 'absorbed' to actively harmful +54.5),
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timing target days-to-crossing (+35.2 REJECT, with the label-process
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refinement that the administrative EOL is stamped ~AT the confirmation day,
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not +3d after), and the 87-config timing-knob grid whose single nominal
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survivor cfg59 (ec_margin 0.6 / emergency_day 48, -6.61 +/- 3.10, 6W/0L/42T)
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was killed on the building-OOF surface (+14.97 +/- 22.05) - textbook
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best-of-87 selection noise with the cert-first W/T profile. The peer session's
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parallel building-OOF candidate sweep confirmed 23 of 24 rejections and
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parked its one coin-flip survivor (rankavg25fht: wf-OOF panel -48.6 at
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17W/16L, self-fit +17.8 with catches -2, static multi-seed never run).
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### (b) THE SCORE - the CV settles (user decisions, in order)
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1. Building split is the score, always (not the self-fit 1661.7).
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2. Foreign buildings' FULL history (before and after the origin) is legal
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training data - deployment itself hands the model future-of-origin
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foreign-building knowledge, and it removes the cold-start distortion.
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3. Per-building planning (cv lobo) was specified, built, and superseded the
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same day: it breaks the count rule by construction (129 zero-swap-death
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building-scenarios, recall 0.367 vs 0.542; per-device thresholds fix the
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recall - 0.766 at p*=0.10 - confirming the break was count granularity,
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not prediction). Kept as a diagnostic.
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4. Final protocol: EXACT leave-one-building-out predictions (24 models, each
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trained on the other 23 buildings' full closed history), ONE full-fleet
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plan per scenario, single value = ALL-48 mean.
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**Champion on the final CV: `cv all48oof` SCORE = 1877.3** (72 s per run;
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5-fold approximation was 1913.3; panel 1857.7). Reference chain for level
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sanity: self-fit 1661.7 < exact-LOBO 1877.3 < 5-fold-OOF 1913.3 - more
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foreign training data helps, self-building identity flatters by ~200.
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Everything is judged against 1877.3 paired per scenario from here, sched-flat
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rule in force. Public best remains 3c7b883 at 1661.45; private selection
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recommendation unchanged (score the hardened head publicly, then select).
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