Thibaut Forest Claude Opus 5 (1M context) commited on
Commit
2000281
·
1 Parent(s): 227c214

Phase 54: exhaustive re-adjudication complete (zero survivors); CV settles - exact leave-one-building-out, single value, champion 1877.3

Browse files
Files changed (1) hide show
  1. EXPERIMENTS.md +44 -0
EXPERIMENTS.md CHANGED
@@ -2853,3 +2853,47 @@ under the deployment-shaped instruments.** Champion 3c7b883 / current head
2853
  (static @ 0.8, cert and pooling off) stands. Endgame per the user's mechanics
2854
  (private = user-selected past versions): score the current head publicly; if
2855
  ~1661, select the head for private (robustness-hardened); else select 3c7b883.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2853
  (static @ 0.8, cert and pooling off) stands. Endgame per the user's mechanics
2854
  (private = user-selected past versions): score the current head publicly; if
2855
  ~1661, select the head for private (robustness-hardened); else select 3c7b883.
2856
+
2857
+ ## Phase 54 - full re-adjudication complete + the CV settles (user-driven)
2858
+
2859
+ ### (a) The exhaustive re-try of every rejected idea (user directive)
2860
+
2861
+ 10-agent sweep over the entire EXPERIMENTS.md candidate history on the
2862
+ then-current instrument pair, base reproduced at 1661.65 in every arm.
2863
+ All planners (14 arms, +343..+954, all REJECT), all model families (4 slices,
2864
+ ~50 arms, zero ALIVE - logbag==logistic now confirmed on four instruments),
2865
+ all feature re-adds (calendar/vproj/ranks/fht_days/temp30/dbz/stale2 -
2866
+ REJECT; temp_mean upgraded from 'absorbed' to actively harmful +54.5),
2867
+ timing target days-to-crossing (+35.2 REJECT, with the label-process
2868
+ refinement that the administrative EOL is stamped ~AT the confirmation day,
2869
+ not +3d after), and the 87-config timing-knob grid whose single nominal
2870
+ survivor cfg59 (ec_margin 0.6 / emergency_day 48, -6.61 +/- 3.10, 6W/0L/42T)
2871
+ was killed on the building-OOF surface (+14.97 +/- 22.05) - textbook
2872
+ best-of-87 selection noise with the cert-first W/T profile. The peer session's
2873
+ parallel building-OOF candidate sweep confirmed 23 of 24 rejections and
2874
+ parked its one coin-flip survivor (rankavg25fht: wf-OOF panel -48.6 at
2875
+ 17W/16L, self-fit +17.8 with catches -2, static multi-seed never run).
2876
+
2877
+ ### (b) THE SCORE - the CV settles (user decisions, in order)
2878
+
2879
+ 1. Building split is the score, always (not the self-fit 1661.7).
2880
+ 2. Foreign buildings' FULL history (before and after the origin) is legal
2881
+ training data - deployment itself hands the model future-of-origin
2882
+ foreign-building knowledge, and it removes the cold-start distortion.
2883
+ 3. Per-building planning (cv lobo) was specified, built, and superseded the
2884
+ same day: it breaks the count rule by construction (129 zero-swap-death
2885
+ building-scenarios, recall 0.367 vs 0.542; per-device thresholds fix the
2886
+ recall - 0.766 at p*=0.10 - confirming the break was count granularity,
2887
+ not prediction). Kept as a diagnostic.
2888
+ 4. Final protocol: EXACT leave-one-building-out predictions (24 models, each
2889
+ trained on the other 23 buildings' full closed history), ONE full-fleet
2890
+ plan per scenario, single value = ALL-48 mean.
2891
+
2892
+ **Champion on the final CV: `cv all48oof` SCORE = 1877.3** (72 s per run;
2893
+ 5-fold approximation was 1913.3; panel 1857.7). Reference chain for level
2894
+ sanity: self-fit 1661.7 < exact-LOBO 1877.3 < 5-fold-OOF 1913.3 - more
2895
+ foreign training data helps, self-building identity flatters by ~200.
2896
+
2897
+ Everything is judged against 1877.3 paired per scenario from here, sched-flat
2898
+ rule in force. Public best remains 3c7b883 at 1661.45; private selection
2899
+ recommendation unchanged (score the hardened head publicly, then select).