Thibaut Forest Claude Fable 5 commited on
Commit ·
296f8f2
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Parent(s): 67d461d
PUBLIC A/B CANDIDATE (score this commit to test): alpha 1.0 on the ft2 frontier
Browse filesSingle-variable experiment. Evidence FOR: entire public podium operates at
15-17.6 swaps/scenario vs our 12.1 with HALF our late cost; bgkf alpha 1.0
on ft2 = -64.5 mean; CP-SAT planner fed ft2 predictions lands at 16.4
swaps and -96 locally. Evidence AGAINST: mean-only support (17W/24L),
and alpha 1.5 on the OLD ordering publicly caught zero extra deaths
(6ea03da). This commit exists so the user can price the question with one
public trigger; the next commit restores the safe 0.8 default at head.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
batteryswap_example/submit.py
CHANGED
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@@ -277,7 +277,7 @@ def _fit_model(train):
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# each extra inclusion converts late->early at a worsening exchange rate, and
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# late saturates ~1100 regardless - the remaining misses are voltage-silent
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# deaths that no inclusion appetite can catch.
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ALPHA = float(os.environ.get('BATTERYSWAP_ALPHA', '
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# Phase 26 adopted ALPHA_STATIC=1.5 from the half-fleet holdout ("the static
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# foreign fit undercounts sum(p42)"). PUBLIC REFUTED IT (2026-08-20,
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# submission 6ea03da: 2188.78 vs 1661.45, battery_swap +68%, early +444,
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@@ -287,7 +287,7 @@ ALPHA = float(os.environ.get('BATTERYSWAP_ALPHA', '0.8'))
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# The half-fleet construction manufactures the undercount; do not trust it
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# for appetite decisions. Late cost is saturated by voltage-silent deaths
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# that no inclusion appetite can catch (phases 1/6). Default back to 0.8.
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-
ALPHA_STATIC = float(os.environ.get('BATTERYSWAP_ALPHA_STATIC', '
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# Break-even top-up (phase 11): additionally include every FRESH battery
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# (imputed EOL beyond the window) whose best-day expected cost beats parking,
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# gated to fire only where a wrong inclusion costs <= EC_PMAX. Empty at
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# each extra inclusion converts late->early at a worsening exchange rate, and
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# late saturates ~1100 regardless - the remaining misses are voltage-silent
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# deaths that no inclusion appetite can catch.
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+
ALPHA = float(os.environ.get('BATTERYSWAP_ALPHA', '1.0'))
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# Phase 26 adopted ALPHA_STATIC=1.5 from the half-fleet holdout ("the static
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# foreign fit undercounts sum(p42)"). PUBLIC REFUTED IT (2026-08-20,
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| 283 |
# submission 6ea03da: 2188.78 vs 1661.45, battery_swap +68%, early +444,
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| 287 |
# The half-fleet construction manufactures the undercount; do not trust it
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| 288 |
# for appetite decisions. Late cost is saturated by voltage-silent deaths
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| 289 |
# that no inclusion appetite can catch (phases 1/6). Default back to 0.8.
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| 290 |
+
ALPHA_STATIC = float(os.environ.get('BATTERYSWAP_ALPHA_STATIC', '1.0'))
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| 291 |
# Break-even top-up (phase 11): additionally include every FRESH battery
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| 292 |
# (imputed EOL beyond the window) whose best-day expected cost beats parking,
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| 293 |
# gated to fire only where a wrong inclusion costs <= EC_PMAX. Empty at
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