Thibaut Forest Claude Fable 5 commited on
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PUBLIC A/B CANDIDATE (score this commit to test): alpha 1.0 on the ft2 frontier

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Single-variable experiment. Evidence FOR: entire public podium operates at
15-17.6 swaps/scenario vs our 12.1 with HALF our late cost; bgkf alpha 1.0
on ft2 = -64.5 mean; CP-SAT planner fed ft2 predictions lands at 16.4
swaps and -96 locally. Evidence AGAINST: mean-only support (17W/24L),
and alpha 1.5 on the OLD ordering publicly caught zero extra deaths
(6ea03da). This commit exists so the user can price the question with one
public trigger; the next commit restores the safe 0.8 default at head.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Files changed (1) hide show
  1. batteryswap_example/submit.py +2 -2
batteryswap_example/submit.py CHANGED
@@ -277,7 +277,7 @@ def _fit_model(train):
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  # each extra inclusion converts late->early at a worsening exchange rate, and
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  # late saturates ~1100 regardless - the remaining misses are voltage-silent
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  # deaths that no inclusion appetite can catch.
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- ALPHA = float(os.environ.get('BATTERYSWAP_ALPHA', '0.8'))
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  # Phase 26 adopted ALPHA_STATIC=1.5 from the half-fleet holdout ("the static
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  # foreign fit undercounts sum(p42)"). PUBLIC REFUTED IT (2026-08-20,
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  # submission 6ea03da: 2188.78 vs 1661.45, battery_swap +68%, early +444,
@@ -287,7 +287,7 @@ ALPHA = float(os.environ.get('BATTERYSWAP_ALPHA', '0.8'))
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  # The half-fleet construction manufactures the undercount; do not trust it
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  # for appetite decisions. Late cost is saturated by voltage-silent deaths
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  # that no inclusion appetite can catch (phases 1/6). Default back to 0.8.
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- ALPHA_STATIC = float(os.environ.get('BATTERYSWAP_ALPHA_STATIC', '0.8'))
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  # Break-even top-up (phase 11): additionally include every FRESH battery
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  # (imputed EOL beyond the window) whose best-day expected cost beats parking,
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  # gated to fire only where a wrong inclusion costs <= EC_PMAX. Empty at
 
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  # each extra inclusion converts late->early at a worsening exchange rate, and
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  # late saturates ~1100 regardless - the remaining misses are voltage-silent
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  # deaths that no inclusion appetite can catch.
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+ ALPHA = float(os.environ.get('BATTERYSWAP_ALPHA', '1.0'))
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  # Phase 26 adopted ALPHA_STATIC=1.5 from the half-fleet holdout ("the static
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  # foreign fit undercounts sum(p42)"). PUBLIC REFUTED IT (2026-08-20,
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  # submission 6ea03da: 2188.78 vs 1661.45, battery_swap +68%, early +444,
 
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  # The half-fleet construction manufactures the undercount; do not trust it
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  # for appetite decisions. Late cost is saturated by voltage-silent deaths
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  # that no inclusion appetite can catch (phases 1/6). Default back to 0.8.
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+ ALPHA_STATIC = float(os.environ.get('BATTERYSWAP_ALPHA_STATIC', '1.0'))
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  # Break-even top-up (phase 11): additionally include every FRESH battery
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  # (imputed EOL beyond the window) whose best-day expected cost beats parking,
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  # gated to fire only where a wrong inclusion costs <= EC_PMAX. Empty at