Thibaut Forest Claude Fable 5 commited on
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Parent(s): 7330221
EXPERIMENTS: Phase 61 entry
Browse filesCo-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- EXPERIMENTS.md +23 -0
EXPERIMENTS.md
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STANDING RECOMMENDATION unchanged: public-trigger 3f9bf12/head; private =
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3f9bf12 unless publicly refuted, else 3c7b883; never 698401a.
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STANDING RECOMMENDATION unchanged: public-trigger 3f9bf12/head; private =
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3f9bf12 unless publicly refuted, else 3c7b883; never 698401a.
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## Phase 61 - team solution evaluated ON our bgkf; operating-point finding; alpha-1.0 A/B prepared
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User directive: run the team repo's stack under our CV and adopt structural
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changes if they improve it. Full port (panel rebuilt on our dataset with
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81/81 exact EOL reproduction; model retrained building-OOF, h42 AUC 0.961;
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CP-SAT planner) plus four mix-and-match decompositions. NO ADOPTION:
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their full stack +228 vs ft2 (p .017, over-buys on ~90-device fold
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fleets); their ordering loses decisively anchored (+412, monotone
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dose-response at every weight); our ft2 model driving their CP-SAT lands
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at -96.3 mean but 16.4 swaps/scen, 25W/23L, Wilcoxon .72 = count-carried,
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mean-only. Instrument caveat recorded: their machinery targets 460-920
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device fleets; our folds are ~90 - public is the only cross-pipeline
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arbiter (them 1493.65 vs us 1661.45).
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OPERATING-POINT FINDING (leaderboard decomposition): the entire podium
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swaps 15-17.6/scenario with ~60-70 late-days/scen vs our 12.1 swaps and
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121 late-days; the CP-SAT mix independently lands at the podium's
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operating point on our predictions. The alpha-1.5 public failure (6ea03da,
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zero catches) was on the OLD ordering; whether ft2's ordering converts
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extra appetite publicly is the one open question a public trigger can
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answer. PREPARED: commit 296f8f2 = alpha 1.0 on ft2 (single variable,
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selectable for public scoring); head 7d7632c keeps the safe 0.8.
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