HEAD: flat alpha 1.4 for public A/B (user call) - bgkf 1498.3, podium operating point; revert = both alpha defaults 1.0

batteryswap_example/submit.py

@@ -431,7 +431,7 @@ def _fit_model(train):
 # each extra inclusion converts late->early at a worsening exchange rate, and
 # late saturates ~1100 regardless - the remaining misses are voltage-silent
 # deaths that no inclusion appetite can catch.
-ALPHA = float(os.environ.get('BATTERYSWAP_ALPHA', '1.0'))
+ALPHA = float(os.environ.get('BATTERYSWAP_ALPHA', '1.4'))
 # Phase 26 adopted ALPHA_STATIC=1.5 from the half-fleet holdout ("the static
 # foreign fit undercounts sum(p42)"). PUBLIC REFUTED IT (2026-08-20,
 # submission 6ea03da: 2188.78 vs 1661.45, battery_swap +68%, early +444,
@@ -441,7 +441,16 @@ ALPHA = float(os.environ.get('BATTERYSWAP_ALPHA', '1.0'))
 # The half-fleet construction manufactures the undercount; do not trust it
 # for appetite decisions. Late cost is saturated by voltage-silent deaths
 # that no inclusion appetite can catch (phases 1/6). Default back to 0.8.
-ALPHA_STATIC = float(os.environ.get('BATTERYSWAP_ALPHA_STATIC', '1.0'))
+# 2026-08-23 night (user call): flat alpha 1.4 on the CURRENT ordering for
+# a public A/B - bgkf 1498.3 (-43.0 vs 1541.3, count-coupled: swaps
+# 2.27->2.97/fleet = the podium's 15-18/scen operating point; NOT
+# per-origin significant, 19W/24L - the mean is carried by death-heavy
+# origins, which is exactly what the public read arbitrates). The 2189
+# refutation above was alpha 1.5 on the OLD ordering; untested on ft2.
+# Both knobs at 1.4 (static path governs held-out/public fleets).
+# Rehearsal /tmp/subtest2: 520->688 swaps (+32.3%), 43/48 scenarios.
+# Revert to the measured-1575.31 config: both defaults back to 1.0.
+ALPHA_STATIC = float(os.environ.get('BATTERYSWAP_ALPHA_STATIC', '1.4'))
 # Break-even top-up (phase 11): additionally include every FRESH battery
 # (imputed EOL beyond the window) whose best-day expected cost beats parking,
 # gated to fire only where a wrong inclusion costs <= EC_PMAX. Empty at