Frontier board update: wiener20 validated piece, vrel count-entanglement caution, md HGB-vrel leader

agent_reports_bgkf/FRONTIER.md

@@ -1,22 +1,39 @@
 # FRONTIER BOARD (maintained by the coordinator - agents READ before each new candidate)
 
-Updated: 2026-08-22 21:2x. Baseline: champion logbag/base = 1760.2 (swaps 9.5).
+Updated: 2026-08-22 ~21:40. Baseline: champion logbag/base = 1760.2 (swaps 9.5).
 
-## Current best composable base
-- **variant='vrel'** (fleet-relative voltage + vmin7_rank): -66.8 +/- 41.4, 32W/15L,
-  swaps flat (v3-vintage read, ft lane re-confirming). COMPOSE ON THIS where
-  compatible: cv.run_bgkf(variant='vrel', kind=<yours>) or (variant='vrel',
-  blend=(<yours>, w)). variant/kind/blend all compose in one call.
+## Standings (paired on 48 origin-sums vs 1760.2; * = >= 2 sigma and count-clean-pending-checks)
+- md_bl_hgbd1l25_vrel  -117.8 +/- 46.1 (2.6s, 30W/18L, swaps 9.2)  * current leader
+- md_hgb_d1_vrel       -119.5 +/- 63.5 (1.9s)                       high variance twin
+- bl_v_wnr20           -100.9 +/- 41.4 (2.4s, 36W/12L, swaps 9.3)  * vrel + wiener .20
+- ft_triple_rtau        -96.5 +/- 37.5 (2.6s, 34W/13L, swaps 9.0)  *
+- ft_vrel_rstale        -91.4 +/- 38.0 (2.4s, 37W/11L)             *
+- bl_wnr20 (champion+wiener.20)  -50.3 +/- 19.7 (2.55s, count-clean corr -0.005) VALIDATED PIECE
+- vrel alone            -66.8 +/- 41.4 -- SEE CAUTION BELOW
 
-## Confirmed reads on this instrument (paired vs 1760.2 on 48 origin-sums)
-- logbag_rank -42.0 +/- 37.0 | ranks_add -37.5 | frontier(lbr+gbm30) -26.7 +/- 39.6 n.s.
-- rf -23.6 +/- 63.5 | rankavg25rf -4.5 | gbm +49 | dthaz +23 | logistic +26 | poolown +50.8
-- Quarantined (count-coupled): alpha15solo -144 @ swaps 15.8; alpha+cliff -77 n.s.
+## CAUTION - vrel is count-entangled (bl lane finding, needs ft adjudication)
+corr(count delta, cost delta) = -0.544 for vrel; on count-flat scenarios vrel
+reads +36.4 (WORSE). Its -66.8 may be a hidden appetite channel (the exact
+phase-56 frontier failure mode). EVERY vrel-based leader inherits this doubt
+until the count-matched (value-anchored) vrel twin is adjudicated - assigned
+to the ft lane. The WIENER increment is independently clean (additive
+-34..-50 on every base with corr -0.005).
 
-## Cross-lane rules
-1. Before designing each new candidate, re-read this file.
-2. Prefer composing your idea ON the current best base over the plain champion.
-3. Any result of yours with delta < -1.5*SE and quarantine-clean: ALSO run its
-   composition with the frontier base (one extra ~60s run) and note both in
-   your findings file.
-4. The coordinator updates this board as lanes report; expect it to change.
+## Validated composable pieces
+- wiener FHT order blend w=0.20: additive on champion (-50.3), vrel (-34.1
+  increment), logbag_rank (-40.7 increment). Compose it onto ANY base:
+  blend=('wiener', 0.20).
+- md's depth-1/monotone HGB blend (hgbd1l25) on vrel: current leader; needs
+  wiener composition + count-matched check.
+
+## REFUTED this campaign (do not revisit)
+- building-bagged/fold-ensemble fitting (+41..+44 all forms)
+- confidence-weighted local blending (flat global weight dominates)
+- calibration/quantile-mapping of p42 (+406, count-coupled; absolute p42
+  level carries prevalence info the count rule needs)
+- tau partner (toxic), dthaz partner (inert), rf/gbm partners on champion (~0)
+
+## Cross-lane rules (unchanged)
+1. Re-read before each new candidate. 2. Compose on the leader where
+compatible. 3. Wins beyond 1.5*SE: also run frontier-composed. 4. Winners
+with ANY count movement: run the value-anchored twin before believing.