{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# CYB004 Baseline Classifier — Inference Example\n",
    "\n",
    "End-to-end demo: load the trained XGBoost and PyTorch MLP models from the Hugging Face repo and predict the **phishing campaign phase** of a new per-timestep telemetry record.\n",
    "\n",
    "**Models predict one of 7 phases:** `target_reconnaissance`, `infrastructure_setup`, `lure_crafting`, `email_delivery`, `victim_engagement`, `credential_harvesting`, `post_compromise_escalation`.\n",
    "\n",
    "**This is a baseline reference model**, not a production email-security platform. See the model card for full metrics and limitations."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## 1. Install dependencies"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "%pip install --quiet xgboost torch safetensors pandas numpy huggingface_hub"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## 2. Download model artifacts from Hugging Face"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download\n",
    "\n",
    "REPO_ID = \"xpertsystems/cyb004-baseline-classifier\"\n",
    "\n",
    "files = {}\n",
    "for name in [\"model_xgb.json\", \"model_mlp.safetensors\",\n",
    "             \"feature_engineering.py\", \"feature_meta.json\",\n",
    "             \"feature_scaler.json\"]:\n",
    "    files[name] = hf_hub_download(repo_id=REPO_ID, filename=name)\n",
    "    print(f\"  downloaded: {name}\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import sys, os\n",
    "fe_dir = os.path.dirname(files[\"feature_engineering.py\"])\n",
    "if fe_dir not in sys.path:\n",
    "    sys.path.insert(0, fe_dir)\n",
    "\n",
    "from feature_engineering import (\n",
    "    transform_single, load_meta, INT_TO_LABEL, build_department_lookup\n",
    ")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## 3. Load models and metadata"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import json\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import torch\n",
    "import torch.nn as nn\n",
    "import xgboost as xgb\n",
    "from safetensors.torch import load_file\n",
    "\n",
    "meta = load_meta(files[\"feature_meta.json\"])\n",
    "with open(files[\"feature_scaler.json\"]) as f:\n",
    "    scaler = json.load(f)\n",
    "\n",
    "N_FEATURES = len(meta[\"feature_names\"])\n",
    "N_CLASSES = len(meta[\"int_to_label\"])\n",
    "print(f\"feature count: {N_FEATURES}\")\n",
    "print(f\"class count:   {N_CLASSES}\")\n",
    "print(f\"label classes: {list(meta['int_to_label'].values())}\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# XGBoost\n",
    "xgb_model = xgb.XGBClassifier()\n",
    "xgb_model.load_model(files[\"model_xgb.json\"])\n",
    "\n",
    "# MLP architecture (must match training)\n",
    "class PhaseMLP(nn.Module):\n",
    "    def __init__(self, n_features, n_classes=7, hidden1=128, hidden2=64, dropout=0.3):\n",
    "        super().__init__()\n",
    "        self.net = nn.Sequential(\n",
    "            nn.Linear(n_features, hidden1),\n",
    "            nn.BatchNorm1d(hidden1),\n",
    "            nn.ReLU(),\n",
    "            nn.Dropout(dropout),\n",
    "            nn.Linear(hidden1, hidden2),\n",
    "            nn.BatchNorm1d(hidden2),\n",
    "            nn.ReLU(),\n",
    "            nn.Dropout(dropout),\n",
    "            nn.Linear(hidden2, n_classes),\n",
    "        )\n",
    "    def forward(self, x):\n",
    "        return self.net(x)\n",
    "\n",
    "mlp_model = PhaseMLP(N_FEATURES, n_classes=N_CLASSES)\n",
    "mlp_model.load_state_dict(load_file(files[\"model_mlp.safetensors\"]))\n",
    "mlp_model.eval()\n",
    "print(\"models loaded\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## 4. Build the department lookup\n",
    "\n",
    "Per-department topology features (employee_count, MFA enrollment, gateway architecture, DMARC level, etc.) are pulled from `victim_topology.csv` and merged into each timestep record by `target_department_id`."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "from huggingface_hub import snapshot_download\n",
    "\n",
    "ds_path = snapshot_download(repo_id=\"xpertsystems/cyb004-sample\", repo_type=\"dataset\")\n",
    "\n",
    "dept_lookup = build_department_lookup(\n",
    "    os.path.join(ds_path, \"victim_topology.csv\")\n",
    ")\n",
    "print(f\"loaded {len(dept_lookup)} department profiles\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## 5. Prediction helper"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "MU = np.array(scaler[\"mean\"], dtype=np.float32)\n",
    "SD = np.array(scaler[\"std\"],  dtype=np.float32)\n",
    "\n",
    "def predict_phase(record: dict) -> dict:\n",
    "    \"\"\"Predict the campaign phase for one per-timestep telemetry record.\n",
    "\n",
    "    Per-department topology features are pulled automatically via\n",
    "    `target_department_id` from the dept_lookup loaded above.\n",
    "    \"\"\"\n",
    "    dept_id = int(record.get(\"target_department_id\", -1))\n",
    "    dept_aggs = dept_lookup.get(dept_id, {})\n",
    "    X = transform_single(record, meta, victim_aggregates=dept_aggs)\n",
    "\n",
    "    xgb_proba = xgb_model.predict_proba(X)[0]\n",
    "    xgb_label = INT_TO_LABEL[int(np.argmax(xgb_proba))]\n",
    "\n",
    "    Xs = ((X - MU) / SD).astype(np.float32)\n",
    "    with torch.no_grad():\n",
    "        logits = mlp_model(torch.tensor(Xs))\n",
    "        mlp_proba = torch.softmax(logits, dim=1).numpy()[0]\n",
    "    mlp_label = INT_TO_LABEL[int(np.argmax(mlp_proba))]\n",
    "\n",
    "    return {\n",
    "        \"xgboost\": {\n",
    "            \"label\": xgb_label,\n",
    "            \"probabilities\": {INT_TO_LABEL[i]: float(p) for i, p in enumerate(xgb_proba)},\n",
    "        },\n",
    "        \"mlp\": {\n",
    "            \"label\": mlp_label,\n",
    "            \"probabilities\": {INT_TO_LABEL[i]: float(p) for i, p in enumerate(mlp_proba)},\n",
    "        },\n",
    "    }"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## 6. Run on an example record\n",
    "\n",
    "Real `email_delivery` event lifted from the sample dataset: a nation-state APT campaign at timestep 13, with homoglyph substitution evasion active and 58 emails sent. Both models should predict `email_delivery`."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Real timestep record from the sample dataset (true phase: email_delivery)\n",
    "example_record = {\n",
    "    \"timestep\": 13,\n",
    "    \"emails_sent_cumulative\": 58,\n",
    "    \"click_through_rate\": 0.1158,\n",
    "    \"credential_submission_rate\": 0.0713,\n",
    "    \"gateway_detection_score\": 0.7327,\n",
    "    \"lure_personalisation_score\": 0.7507,\n",
    "    \"evasion_technique_active\": \"homoglyph_substitution\",\n",
    "    \"target_department_id\": 10,\n",
    "    \"actor_capability_tier\": \"nation_state_apt\",\n",
    "}\n",
    "\n",
    "result = predict_phase(example_record)\n",
    "\n",
    "print(f\"XGBoost  ->  {result['xgboost']['label']}\")\n",
    "for lbl, p in sorted(result['xgboost']['probabilities'].items(), key=lambda x: -x[1])[:5]:\n",
    "    print(f\"    P({lbl:30s}) = {p:.4f}\")\n",
    "\n",
    "print(f\"\\nMLP      ->  {result['mlp']['label']}\")\n",
    "for lbl, p in sorted(result['mlp']['probabilities'].items(), key=lambda x: -x[1])[:5]:\n",
    "    print(f\"    P({lbl:30s}) = {p:.4f}\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Note: when the two models disagree\n",
    "\n",
    "XGBoost and the MLP can disagree on mid-pipeline phases (`victim_engagement`, `credential_harvesting`) where timestep windows overlap. The per-class F1 in the model card identifies which phases are robustly predicted vs. which are not. In a SOC workflow, conflicting predictions are worth surfacing for human review."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## 7. Batch prediction on the sample dataset"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "\n",
    "traj = pd.read_csv(f\"{ds_path}/campaign_trajectories.csv\")\n",
    "\n",
    "# Drop the leaky column the model was never trained on\n",
    "traj = traj.drop(columns=[\"delivery_outcome\"], errors=\"ignore\")\n",
    "\n",
    "# Score the first 200 timesteps\n",
    "sample = traj.head(200).copy()\n",
    "preds = [predict_phase(row.to_dict())[\"xgboost\"][\"label\"] for _, row in sample.iterrows()]\n",
    "sample[\"xgb_pred\"] = preds\n",
    "\n",
    "ct = pd.crosstab(sample[\"campaign_phase\"], sample[\"xgb_pred\"],\n",
    "                 rownames=[\"true\"], colnames=[\"pred\"])\n",
    "print(\"Confusion on first 200 sample rows (XGBoost):\")\n",
    "print(ct)\n",
    "acc = (sample[\"campaign_phase\"] == sample[\"xgb_pred\"]).mean()\n",
    "print(f\"\\nbatch accuracy on first 200 rows (in-distribution): {acc:.4f}\")\n",
    "print(\"\\nNote: these rows include training-set campaigns. See validation_results.json\\n\"\n",
    "      \"for proper held-out test metrics from disjoint campaigns.\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## 8. Next steps\n",
    "\n",
    "- See `validation_results.json` for held-out test metrics (15 disjoint campaigns, ~580 timesteps).\n",
    "- See `multi_seed_results.json` for the across-10-seeds robustness picture (accuracy 0.649 ± 0.038, ROC-AUC 0.937 ± 0.010).\n",
    "- See `ablation_results.json` for per-feature-group contribution. `timestep` carries the dominant signal.\n",
    "- The model card explains why `actor_capability_tier` was *not* used as the target despite being the README's headline use case.\n",
    "- For the full 335k-row CYB004 dataset and commercial licensing, contact **pradeep@xpertsystems.ai**."
   ]
  }
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