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Deterministic Probability Thresholding & Hybrid Bayesian Inference

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Agentic Reliability Framework (ARF)

GitHub License Python Versions Hugging Face Spaces

Open‑source advisory engine for cloud infrastructure governance.
ARF provides provably safe, mathematically grounded recommendations—approve, deny, or escalate—when users request provisioning, configuration, or access changes.


🔍 What We Do

  • Bayesian Online Learning – Fast, conjugate updates for per‑category risk using beta‑binomial models.
  • Offline Pattern Discovery – Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC/NUTS) logistic regression captures complex interactions (time‑of‑day, user role, environment).
  • Composable Policy Algebra – Build fine‑grained rules with AND/OR/NOT combinators.
  • Semantic Memory – FAISS‑based retrieval of similar past incidents for context‑aware decisions.
  • Deterministic Probability Thresholds (DPT) – Clear approve/deny/escalate decisions based on calibrated failure probabilities.

📊 Key Mathematical Insights

Concept Implementation
Conjugate Priors Per‑category Beta priors, updated online with outcomes.
HMC Sampling Logistic regression with NUTS, serialized to JSON for hot‑loading.
Risk Fusion Dynamic weighted combination of conjugate, hyperprior, and HMC estimates.
DPT Approve if P(failure) < 0.2; Deny if > 0.8; otherwise Escalate.

🚀 Quick Links


đź§Ş Try It Now

Click the Spaces below to interact with live demos. The v4 Space showcases the full Bayesian engine with real‑time risk scoring and policy evaluation.


🤝 Contributing

ARF is open source under the Apache 2.0 license. We welcome contributions of all kinds—code, documentation, ideas, or feedback.


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