Brettapps/aus-gallops-tipper

Australian Gallops Tipper

LightGBM ranker model for ranking Australian thoroughbred race fields. The model uses FormFav-derived form/field variables and Racing Australia result labels from a Supabase ml_feature_matrix style dataset.

Intended Use

• Rank runners within a single Australian gallops race.
• Estimate field-normalized win probabilities.
• Support form analysis and model research.

This is not financial advice and must not be treated as a guaranteed betting system.

Feature Logic

Numerical inputs are min-max scaled within each race_id, so each horse is evaluated relative to its field. Lower-is-better variables such as barrier, days since run, last start margin, and last 600m rank are inverted after scaling.

The model also receives expert bucket scores:

• Speed map and pace: 25%
• Form and class: 25%
• Track and environment: 20%
• Sectionals: 15%
• Humans and market: 15%

This baseline was trained from the local 2026-08-01 FormFav and Racing Australia comparison archives. Several unavailable live variables are currently proxy-filled, including true early sectionals, last-start weight, jockey/trainer historical strike rate, and market firming. Treat this as a first real data artifact, not a production betting model.

Validation Metrics

• mode: ranker
• rows: 1292
• train_rows: 1024
• validation_rows: 268
• races: 124
• train_races: 99
• validation_races: 25
• top1_accuracy: 0.24
• mean_ndcg_at_3: 0.3809487605714332
• race_normalized_log_loss: 0.3578525368255854
• roc_auc: 0.6179423868312758

Feature Importance

• expert_prior_score: 1110.0574
• form_class_score: 950.1305
• rel_sectional_vs_class_avg: 857.8760
• rel_api_index: 829.7493
• rel_barrier: 760.1593
• speed_map_score: 736.7255
• rel_margin_beaten_last_start: 707.3938
• sectionals_score: 660.5257
• rel_track_condition_win_pct: 609.6845
• rel_last_600m_rank: 548.6328
• track_env_score: 510.0266
• rel_distance_mastery_pct: 320.8251
• rel_early_speed_rating: 81.1268
• projected_settling_position: 18.3684
• rel_days_since_last_run: 6.8742
• rel_market_firm_factor: 0.0000
• rel_jockey_trainer_strike_rate: 0.0000
• rel_track_layout_score: 0.0000
• human_market_score: 0.0000
• rel_weight_delta: 0.0000

Files

• model.joblib: trained LightGBM estimator
• model.txt: native LightGBM booster text dump
• preprocessing.json: feature schema and race-relative scaling metadata
• training_config.json: training settings
• metrics.json: validation metrics
• feature_importance.csv: gain-based feature importance