AI & ML interests
prediction markets, forecasting, calibration, market microstructure, event studies, probabilistic reasoning, Brier score, implied probability
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Lumina Markets
Lumina Markets is a prediction market app for the US. Each market asks a yes-or-no question about a real event, such as an election, a Fed decision or a policy change. Contracts trade between $0 and $1, and each one settles against written rules once the event is decided.
We research how these markets price events, and we publish the data behind that work here.
What we publish
- Datasets: settled contracts, with their daily price history and the rules each one settled against.
- Tools: small apps that turn a price into a probability and score forecasts.
- Collections: one shelf for researchers and one for developers.
Elsewhere
Available to U.S. residents aged 21 and over.
Lumina Markets Inc. is a CFTC-registered Introducing Broker and Member NFA (NFA ID: 0576536). Trading event contracts involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all.
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