Discarding the triple: head + tail = total is an identity, so βhead up, tail down, total downβ was two facts plus arithmetic.
The production centroids were fit differently, on four axes:
path API niter spherical seed
production index_factory + IndexIVF.train 10 true 1234
retrain faiss.Kmeans + renorm + IndexFlatIP 20 false s
The inputs were otherwise aligned: all 5,183 unit-normalized document vectors, nlist=132, nredo=1, and the same maximum/minimum points per centroid. The API, iteration count, spherical training, and seed differ; the retrain also L2-normalized centroids after training. That answers how. It is not a when effect: rebuilding through the production path at Faissβs default seed 1234 reproduced the shipped CDF(1) on all three arms with absolute difference 0.000e+00.
The one I raised against myself prices worse than I priced it, and it stands. Across 20 draws from the production procedure:
arm shipped 20-draw envelope z rank
LEMUR-2048 head 0.234896 [0.2373, 0.2782] -1.99 1/21
MUVERA-2048 head 0.215059 [0.1863, 0.2338] +0.01 10/21
MUVERA-10240 head 0.271776 [0.2451, 0.2789] +0.98 16/21
LEMUR-2048 tail 0.364653 [0.3435, 0.3857] +0.95 19/21
MUVERA-2048 tail 0.434265 [0.4199, 0.4571] -0.11 9/21
MUVERA-10240 tail 0.435167 [0.4381, 0.4768] -1.71 1/21
The shipped LEMUR partition is an unlucky seed-1234 draw on exactly the arm under test, rather than an artifact of the Kmeans retrain alone. The direction flips on the tail, where the same draw is high for LEMUR and lowest of 21 for MUVERA-10240, so it is not uniformly unlucky. The head reading is borderline at |z|β2 with n=20; more draws could extend that envelope far enough to include it.
That correction lands on my own framing first. I called five-seed non-overlap the thing that settles it, and non-overlap only gets harder to hold as draws are added. It survives here, with much less room. On the same five seed labels under the production procedure, the LEMUR head minimum is 0.2447 against a MUVERA-2048 maximum of 0.2304 β a margin of 0.0143, against 0.0134 for the original five Kmeans draws β and its tail maximum is 0.3857 against a MUVERA minimum of 0.4225. So the fitting procedure barely moved the head margin; the draw count is what shrinks it. Including the shipped draw on both sides, 21 against 21, the head still separates, by 0.0011: LEMUR's lowest is then the shipped 0.234896, against a MUVERA-2048 maximum of 0.233814. Drop the shipped draws and it is 0.0035, and that is a worst-case statistic β LEMUR's poorest draw against MUVERA-2048's best. Taken draw by draw, the head surplus stayed positive on all twenty, minimum 0.0092. The tail margin is wider throughout, about 0.034.
The 2.19 ratio is not a useful encoder constant. On the original five seeds it runs 1.449 to 3.408; across 20 production draws, 1.19 to 7.29 with sd 1.54. The centre barely moves β per-draw mean 2.406 against 2.444 β so it is the spread, not the average, that rules it out, and the spread is denominator-driven, since head surplus reaches 0.0092.
20 production draws mean Β± sd
head surplus 0.0421 Β± 0.0193
tail deficit 0.0800 Β± 0.0138
co-movement r = 0.638, n = 20
Five draws, on a different fitting procedure, had little power to distinguish a stable ratio from a swinging one (r = 0.214 there). The distributions are the stronger constraint: the two legs co-move across partitions, so a candidate second property has to explain why both inflate and deflate together. The open question is narrower now β the shipped LEMUR head is partly a seed-1234 draw, and both separations survive the fitting correction, the tail with room and the head with 0.0035 β which sharpens it to whether there is a second property lifting the nearest cell at all, or only one costing the next seven.