| --- |
| license: mit |
| tags: |
| - quant-trading |
| - alpha-model |
| - portfolio-optimization |
| - volatility-forecasting |
| - sentiment-analysis |
| - machine-learning |
| - financial-ai |
| - k2-think-v2 |
| - multi-market |
| - cross-asset |
| language: |
| - en |
| --- |
| |
| # AlphaForge v3.1 โ Multi-Market Institutional-Grade Quantitative Trading System |
|
|
| > **A research-backed, modular, institutional-grade quantitative trading framework supporting 9 global markets.** |
| > |
| > Built for the [Build with K2 Think V2 Challenge](https://build.k2think.ai/) by MBZUAI. |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## ๐ Quick Start |
|
|
| ```bash |
| git clone https://huggingface.co/Premchan369/alphaforge-quant-system |
| pip install -r requirements.txt |
| python main.py --mode full --tickers SPY QQQ AAPL |
| ``` |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## ๐ Live Demo |
|
|
| **[AlphaForge x K2 Think V2 โ Interactive Gradio Space](https://huggingface.co/spaces/Premchan369/alphaforge-k2think)** |
|
|
| Features: real-time multi-market analysis (US, UK, DE, JP, CN, IN, Crypto, Forex, Commodities), AI deep analysis, cross-market portfolio optimization, and direct AI chat. |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## ๐ Multi-Market Coverage |
|
|
| | Market | Suffix | Examples | Currency | Session | |
| |--------|--------|----------|----------|---------| |
| | ๐บ๐ธ **US Equities** | (none) | AAPL, TSLA, SPY, NVDA | USD | 09:30-16:00 ET | |
| | ๐ฌ๐ง **UK Equities** | .L | SHEL.L, ULVR.L, AZN.L | GBP | 08:00-16:30 GMT | |
| | ๐ฉ๐ช **Germany Equities** | .DE | SAP.DE, SIE.DE, ALV.DE | EUR | 09:00-17:30 CET | |
| | ๐ฏ๐ต **Japan Equities** | .T | 7203.T, 9984.T, 6758.T | JPY | 09:00-15:00 JST | |
| | ๐จ๐ณ **China Equities** | .SS/.SZ | 600519.SS, 000858.SZ | CNY | 09:30-15:00 CST | |
| | ๐ฎ๐ณ **India Equities** | .NS | RELIANCE.NS, TCS.NS, INFY.NS | INR | 09:15-15:30 IST | |
| | โฟ **Crypto** | -USD | BTC-USD, ETH-USD, SOL-USD | USD | 24/7 | |
| | ๐ฑ **Forex** | =X | EURUSD=X, GBPUSD=X, USDJPY=X | USD | 24/5 | |
| | ๐ข **Commodities** | =F | GC=F, CL=F, SI=F | USD | 08:20-13:30 ET | |
|
|
| ### Cross-Market Portfolio Optimization |
| The system supports **mixed-asset portfolios** across all markets simultaneously: |
|
|
| ``` |
| Example: AAPL (US) + BTC-USD (Crypto) + EURUSD=X (Forex) + GC=F (Commodities) + SHEL.L (UK) |
| ``` |
|
|
| Auto-detection of market from symbol suffixes enables seamless multi-asset analysis. |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## ๐ง What This Project Is |
|
|
| **AlphaForge** is an institutional-grade quantitative trading system built as a modular open-source Python framework. It was created to: |
|
|
| - Predict multi-asset expected returns (ฮผ) across **9 global markets** |
| - Analyze financial sentiment via FinBERT and LLM embeddings |
| - Forecast volatility (ฯ) and covariance matrices (ฮฃ) |
| - Optimize **cross-market portfolios** with real-world constraints |
| - Price options with ML (beating Black-Scholes) |
| - Run **honest** backtests with walk-forward validation |
| - Control drawdowns with CPPI and Kelly criterion |
| - Guard against data snooping bias |
| - Detect market regimes and adapt strategies |
| - Measure liquidity risk and position capacity |
| - Model transaction costs with market impact |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## ๐ Architecture |
|
|
| ``` |
| โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ |
| โ MULTI-MARKET DATA LAYER โ |
| โ US โ UK โ DE โ JP โ CN โ IN โ Crypto โ Forex โ Commodities โ |
| โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ |
| โ |
| โผ |
| โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ |
| โ MARKET-SPECIFIC NORMALIZATION โ |
| โ Suffix handling โ Currency โ Session timing โ Local holidays โ |
| โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ |
| โ |
| โผ |
| โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ |
| โ UNIFIED ANALYSIS PIPELINE โ |
| โ Technical Indicators โ Regime Detection โ Risk Metrics โ |
| โ Position Sizing โ Liquidity Analysis โ Event Calendar โ |
| โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ |
| โ |
| โผ |
| โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ |
| โ CROSS-MARKET PORTFOLIO โ |
| โ Auto-detect market โ Mixed-asset optimization โ Tx cost model โ |
| โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ |
| ``` |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## ๐ Module Overview (33+ Modules) |
|
|
| | Module | Purpose | Research Basis | |
| |--------|---------|--------------| |
| | `market_data.py` | Multi-market OHLCV fetching with suffix normalization | Standard TA | |
| | `sentiment_model.py` | FinBERT / LLM embeddings for financial sentiment | Yang et al. 2020 (FinBERT) | |
| | `alpha_model.py` | XGBoost + LSTM expected return prediction | Gu et al. 2020 | |
| | `volatility_model.py` | GARCH baseline + LSTM volatility forecasting | Michankow 2025 | |
| | `portfolio_optimizer.py` | Mean-variance with constraints, Black-Litterman | Markowitz 1952 | |
| | `options_model.py` | ML option pricing (5-layer FNN beats BS) | Berger et al. 2023 | |
| | `backtest_engine.py` | Honest backtesting with transaction costs | Lopez de Prado 2018 | |
| | `walk_forward_validation.py` | Expanding/sliding/purged/CPCV splits | Lopez de Prado 2018/2019 | |
| | `wavelet_denoising.py` | Wavelet noise reduction for time series | Lopez Gil 2024 | |
| | `alpha_mining.py` | Genetic programming + LLM-driven factor discovery | gplearn | |
| | `multi_task_learning.py` | Joint optimization: alpha + vol + portfolio | Ong & Herremans 2023 | |
| | `execution_algorithms.py` | TWAP, VWAP, Smart Order Router, Almgren-Chriss | Almgren & Chriss 2001 | |
| | `risk_management.py` | VaR/CVaR (hist/parametric/MC), stress tests | Jorion 2006 | |
| | `market_microstructure.py` | Kyle's lambda, VPIN, Roll measure, OFI, Amihud | Kyle 1985 | |
| | `hyperparameter_sweep.py` | Grid, random, Latin Hypercube sampling | Bergstra & Bengio 2012 | |
| | `gpu_optimization.py` | Flash Attention, AMP, gradient checkpointing | PyTorch best practices | |
| | `rl_execution.py` | PPO-based Deep Hedging optimal execution | Buehler et al. 2019 | |
| | `limit_order_book.py` | Level 2 LOB reconstruction, synthetic message feeds | Gould et al. 2013 | |
| | `market_making.py` | Avellaneda-Stoikov quoting, adverse selection | Avellaneda & Stoikov 2008 | |
| | `synthetic_market_sim.py` | Agent-based modeling, regime switching | LeBaron 2006 | |
| | `online_learning.py` | Per-symbol adaptive models, concept drift | Gama et al. 2014 | |
| | `stat_arb.py` | Cointegration, PCA mean-reversion, lead-lag | Gatev et al. 2006 | |
| | `conformal_prediction.py` | Distribution-free prediction intervals | Shafer & Vovk 2008 | |
| | `feature_store.py` | Microsecond feature computation, per-feature drift | Feature Store best practices | |
| | `adversarial_defense.py` | FGSM attacks, model watermarking, evasion monitoring | Goodfellow et al. 2015 | |
| | `ab_testing.py` | Sequential testing, multiple comparison correction | Johari et al. 2022 | |
| | `correlation_regime.py` | DCC-GARCH dynamic correlations, Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage | Engle 2002 | |
| | `news_data_integration.py` | NewsAPI, RSS, GDELT, Reddit/StockTwits aggregation | Alternative data | |
| | `regime_detection.py` | HMM/GMM market regime classifier, regime-conditioned Sharpe | Hamilton 1989 | |
| | `transaction_cost_model.py` | Square-root market impact, spread, fees, optimal participation | Almgren et al. 2005 | |
| | `drawdown_control.py` | CPPI insurance, fractional Kelly, dynamic leverage | Perold & Sharpe 1988 | |
| | `liquidity_risk.py` | Amihud illiquidity, Kyle's lambda, VPIN, position capacity | Amihud 2002 | |
| | `data_snooping_guard.py` | White's Reality Check, FDR, Bonferroni/Holm | White 2000 | |
| | `event_study.py` | Post-earnings drift, macro events, merger arbitrage | MacKinlay 1997 | |
| | `cross_sectional_factors.py` | Fama-French 5-factor, momentum, quality, low-vol | Fama & French 2015 | |
| | `factor_risk_model.py` | Barra-style multi-factor risk decomposition | Grinold & Kahn 2000 | |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## ๐ Key Metrics & Scoring |
|
|
| | Metric | Description | Target | |
| |--------|-------------|--------| |
| | **Sharpe Ratio** | Risk-adjusted return | > 1.0 | |
| | **Sortino Ratio** | Downside risk-adjusted return | > 1.5 | |
| | **Information Coefficient (IC)** | Predicted vs actual return correlation | > 0.05 | |
| | **Max Drawdown** | Worst peak-to-trough decline | < -20% | |
| | **VaR (95%)** | Value at Risk | Reported | |
| | **CVaR (95%)** | Conditional VaR / Expected Shortfall | Reported | |
| | **Calmar Ratio** | Return / Max Drawdown | > 1.0 | |
| | **Win Rate** | % of positive return days | Reported | |
| | **Profit Factor** | Gross profit / Gross loss | > 1.2 | |
| | **GOAT Score** | Composite 0-100 scoring system | > 70 | |
| | **Regime-Conditioned Sharpe** | Sharpe in current market regime | Contextual | |
| | **Transaction Cost Drag** | Annualized cost of trading | < 2% | |
| | **Liquidity Score** | Amihud illiquidity ranking | Reported | |
| | **Kelly Fraction** | Optimal leverage for growth | < 1.0 (practical) | |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## ๐ Research Foundation |
|
|
| Every major component is backed by published research: |
|
|
| | Component | Citation | Key Finding | |
| |-----------|----------|-------------| |
| | Wavelet Denoising | Lopez Gil 2024 (xLSTM-TS) | `db4` + soft thresholding | |
| | Multi-Task Learning | Ong & Herremans 2023 (MTL-TSMOM) | Joint MTL with negative Sharpe loss | |
| | Walk-Forward Validation | Lopez de Prado 2018/2019 | Purged CV + combinatorial CPCV | |
| | Options Pricing | Berger et al. 2023 | 5-layer FNN beats Black-Scholes | |
| | Volatility | Michankow 2025 | Skewed Student's t LSTM | |
| | RL Execution | Buehler et al. 2019 | Deep Hedging (PPO) | |
| | Market Making | Avellaneda & Stoikov 2008 | Inventory management | |
| | Correlation Regimes | Engle 2002 | DCC-GARCH dynamic correlations | |
| | Regime Detection | Hamilton 1989 | HMM for nonstationary time series | |
| | Transaction Costs | Almgren et al. 2005 | Square-root market impact law | |
| | Drawdown Control | Perold & Sharpe 1988 | CPPI dynamic asset allocation | |
| | Kelly Criterion | Thorp 2006 | Fractional Kelly for practical trading | |
| | Liquidity Risk | Amihud 2002 | Illiquidity premium via price impact ratio | |
| | Data Snooping | White 2000 | Bootstrap reality check for multiple testing | |
| | Event Studies | MacKinlay 1997 | Abnormal return methodology | |
| | Fama-French Factors | Fama & French 2015 | 5-factor asset pricing model | |
| | Factor Risk | Grinold & Kahn 2000 | Multi-factor risk decomposition | |
| | Cross-Market Arbitrage | Gatev et al. 2006 | Pairs trading with cointegration | |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## ๐ Installation |
|
|
| ### Core Dependencies |
| ```bash |
| pip install -r requirements.txt |
| ``` |
|
|
| ### Optional Dependencies (for advanced modules) |
| ```bash |
| pip install gplearn PyWavelets feedparser praw arch requests |
| ``` |
|
|
| ### GPU Support |
| ```bash |
| pip install torch torchvision torchaudio --index-url https://download.pytorch.org/whl/cu121 |
| ``` |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## ๐ Usage |
|
|
| ### Single Market Analysis |
| ```bash |
| # US Equity |
| python main.py --mode full --tickers AAPL --market US |
| |
| # UK Equity |
| python main.py --mode full --tickers SHEL.L --market UK |
| |
| # Crypto |
| python main.py --mode full --tickers BTC-USD --market Crypto |
| |
| # Forex |
| python main.py --mode full --tickers EURUSD=X --market Forex |
| ``` |
|
|
| ### Cross-Market Portfolio Optimization |
| ```bash |
| # Mixed-asset portfolio across 4 markets |
| python main.py --mode portfolio --tickers AAPL,BTC-USD,EURUSD=X,GC=F,SHEL.L |
| ``` |
|
|
| ### Walk-Forward Backtest |
| ```bash |
| python main.py --mode walkforward --tickers AAPL TSLA NVDA --market US |
| ``` |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## ๐ค Contributing |
|
|
| This is an open-source project. Contributions welcome: |
|
|
| 1. Fork the repository |
| 2. Create a feature branch |
| 3. Submit a PR with tests |
| 4. Follow the research-first philosophy |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## ๐ License |
|
|
| MIT License โ see LICENSE |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## ๐ Acknowledgments |
|
|
| - Built for the **Build with K2 Think V2 Challenge** by [MBZUAI](https://mbzuai.ac.ae/) |
| - K2 Think V2 model by [MBZUAI-IFM](https://huggingface.co/MBZUAI-IFM) |
| - Research inspiration from Marcos Lopez de Prado, Avellaneda & Stoikov, and the quantitative finance community |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| *Built by Premchan | AlphaForge v3.1 | 33+ Quant Modules | 9 Global Markets | Institutional-Grade Trading* |
|
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