| --- |
| library_name: pytorch |
| license: mit |
| pipeline_tag: other |
| tags: |
| - wildfire |
| - geospatial |
| - weather |
| - earth-observation |
| - foundation-models |
| - evaluation |
| - pytorch |
| pretty_name: WildFIRE-FM |
| --- |
| |
| <div align="center"> |
|
|
| <h1 align="center">WildFIRE-FM</h1> |
|
|
| <h3 align="center">A wildfire-specialized reference backbone for fixed-contract Earth-FM transfer evaluation</h3> |
|
|
| <p align="center"><b>Five seeded PyTorch checkpoints, paper-aligned evaluation artifacts, final figure previews, and source-data access notes for 12-hour wildfire occupancy prediction on a 5 km California grid.</b></p> |
|
|
| <p> |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/papers/2605.18911"><img alt="Paper" src="https://img.shields.io/badge/Paper-HF%20Paper%20Page-blue?style=flat-square"></a> |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM/resolve/main/paper/wildfire_fm_evaluation_contracts.pdf"><img alt="Paper PDF" src="https://img.shields.io/badge/Paper-compiled%20PDF-0F5C5F?style=flat-square"></a> |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM/tree/main/models/wildfire_fm/checkpoints"><img alt="Checkpoints" src="https://img.shields.io/badge/Checkpoints-5%20seeds-C66B2D?style=flat-square"></a> |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM/blob/main/models/wildfire_fm/modeling_unet.py"><img alt="PyTorch" src="https://img.shields.io/badge/PyTorch-model%20code-EE4C2C?style=flat-square&logo=pytorch&logoColor=white"></a> |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM/blob/main/data_sources/DATA_SOURCES.md"><img alt="Data notes" src="https://img.shields.io/badge/Data-source%20notes-536065?style=flat-square"></a> |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM/tree/main/artifacts/results"><img alt="Results" src="https://img.shields.io/badge/Results-sanitized%20summaries-0F5C5F?style=flat-square"></a> |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM/tree/main/assets"><img alt="Figures" src="https://img.shields.io/badge/Figures-final%20previews-C66B2D?style=flat-square"></a> |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM/blob/main/data_sources/DATA_SOURCES.md"><img alt="Grid" src="https://img.shields.io/badge/Grid-5%20km%20EPSG%3A5070-0F5C5F?style=flat-square"></a> |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM#quick-start"><img alt="Input" src="https://img.shields.io/badge/Input-16%20channels-C66B2D?style=flat-square"></a> |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM#task-contract-snapshot"><img alt="Tasks" src="https://img.shields.io/badge/Contracts-6%20task%20views-536065?style=flat-square"></a> |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM/blob/main/LICENSE"><img alt="License" src="https://img.shields.io/badge/License-MIT-0F5C5F?style=flat-square"></a> |
| </p> |
|
|
| <p> |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/papers/2605.18911"><b>Read the paper</b></a> · |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM/tree/main/models/wildfire_fm/checkpoints"><b>Download checkpoints</b></a> · |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM#quick-start"><b>Load the model</b></a> · |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM#task-contract-snapshot"><b>Inspect task-contract results</b></a> |
| </p> |
|
|
| <h3>5 Seeded Checkpoints · 16-Channel Gridded Input · 12-Hour Occupancy Lead · 6 Fixed Task-Contract Views</h3> |
|
|
| <p> |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM#why-wildfire-fm">Why WildFIRE-FM</a> · |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM#release-navigation">Release Navigation</a> · |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM#visual-tour">Visual Tour</a> · |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM#quick-start">Quick Start</a> · |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM#task-contract-snapshot">Task Snapshot</a> · |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM#data-sources">Data Sources</a> · |
| <a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM#how-to-cite">How to Cite</a> |
| </p> |
|
|
| </div> |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| <p align="center"> |
| <img src="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM/resolve/main/assets/wildfire_fm_model_card.svg" alt="WildFIRE-FM overview" width="95%"> |
| </p> |
|
|
| ## Release Navigation |
|
|
| <table> |
| <tr> |
| <td width="33%" valign="top"> |
| <h3><a href="https://huggingface.co/papers/2605.18911">Paper Page</a></h3> |
| <p>Visit the paper page on Hugging Face for the full manuscript, discussions, and related research.</p> |
| </td> |
| <td width="33%" valign="top"> |
| <h3><a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM/tree/main/models/wildfire_fm/checkpoints">Model Checkpoints</a></h3> |
| <p>Access five seeded WildFIRE-FM weights with manifest metadata and SHA-256 hashes for release auditing.</p> |
| </td> |
| <td width="33%" valign="top"> |
| <h3><a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM/blob/main/models/wildfire_fm/modeling_unet.py">Model Code</a></h3> |
| <p>Inspect the compact U-Net implementation used to load the released wildfire occupancy backbone.</p> |
| </td> |
| </tr> |
| <tr> |
| <td width="33%" valign="top"> |
| <h3><a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM#quick-start">Quick Start</a></h3> |
| <p>Clone the repository, instantiate the model, load a seeded checkpoint, and run the artifact check.</p> |
| </td> |
| <td width="33%" valign="top"> |
| <h3><a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM#task-contract-snapshot">Task Snapshot</a></h3> |
| <p>View the final-paper task-contract summary for occupancy, spread, retrieval, burned area, smoke, and heat.</p> |
| </td> |
| <td width="33%" valign="top"> |
| <h3><a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM/tree/main/artifacts/results">Numeric Artifacts</a></h3> |
| <p>Use sanitized CSV and JSON summaries that back the public model-card tables and figure previews.</p> |
| </td> |
| </tr> |
| <tr> |
| <td width="33%" valign="top"> |
| <h3><a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM#visual-tour">Visual Tour</a></h3> |
| <p>Browse final-paper previews for matching-rule sensitivity, selection regret, and task-form ranking changes.</p> |
| </td> |
| <td width="33%" valign="top"> |
| <h3><a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM/blob/main/data_sources/DATA_SOURCES.md">Data Sources</a></h3> |
| <p>See the public provider links and roles for HRRR, FIRMS, LANDFIRE, WRC, LandScan, WFIGS, and MTBS.</p> |
| </td> |
| <td width="33%" valign="top"> |
| <h3><a href="https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM#repository-layout">Repository Layout</a></h3> |
| <p>Find where checkpoints, manifests, scripts, paper outputs, and release documentation live in this Hub repo.</p> |
| </td> |
| </tr> |
| </table> |
| |
| --- |
|
|
| ## Why WildFIRE-FM |
|
|
| Wildfire Earth-FM transfer scores depend strongly on the contract used for comparison: task form, metric, matching rule, spatial scope, and head-selection criterion. The paper studies these choices by holding outputs or features fixed and then changing only the evaluation contract. |
|
|
| WildFIRE-FM is the in-region reference model used in those comparisons. It is trained for 12-hour gridded wildfire occupancy on a California 5 km grid, then evaluated under the same task-specific contracts as the transferred Earth-FM backbones. |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## Key Features |
|
|
| - **Wildfire-specialized reference model:** Compact U-Net for 12-hour occupancy prediction on a projected California grid. |
| - **Five seeded checkpoints:** Seeds `1`, `7`, `42`, `99`, and `123` are released with manifest hashes. |
| - **Fixed-contract artifacts:** Compact summaries cover matching-rule, head-selection, and task-form comparisons from the final paper. |
| - **Source-data aware release:** Provider links and data roles are documented for each public resource used by the study. |
| - **Paper-aligned previews:** Figure assets summarize selection regret, supporting-task rank changes, and primary-task rank changes. |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## Quick Start |
|
|
| Clone the Hub repository or download the files you need: |
|
|
| ```bash |
| git clone https://huggingface.co/RAI-Lab/Wildfire-FM |
| cd Wildfire-FM |
| ``` |
|
|
| Load a seeded checkpoint: |
|
|
| ```python |
| import torch |
| from models.wildfire_fm.modeling_unet import UNetSmallFlex |
| |
| model = UNetSmallFlex( |
| in_ch=16, |
| base=32, |
| dropout=0.1, |
| norm_type="group", |
| norm_groups=8, |
| use_aux_spatial_head=True, |
| ) |
| checkpoint = torch.load( |
| "models/wildfire_fm/checkpoints/seed_1/best_firms_prauc.pt", |
| map_location="cpu", |
| ) |
| state = checkpoint.get("model", checkpoint) |
| model.load_state_dict(state) |
| model.eval() |
| ``` |
|
|
| The checkpoint expects the same 16-channel gridded input described in the paper and in `data_sources/DATA_SOURCES.md`. |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## Task-Contract Snapshot |
|
|
| | Task contract | Best final-paper mean | Winner | |
| |---|---:|---| |
| | Occupancy union F1 | `60.1506 ± 7.5865` percent | ClimaX | |
| | Fire-spread spatial F1 | `80.9700 ± 2.0200` percent | WildFIRE-FM | |
| | Final burned-area log-RMSE | `1.1657 ± 0.0126`, lower is better | WildFIRE-FM | |
| | Analog retrieval nDCG@10 | `0.5099 ± 0.0336` | WildFIRE-FM | |
| | Smoke PM2.5 RMSE | `4.4403 ± 0.0488`, lower is better | AlphaEarth | |
| | Extreme-heat RMSE-C | `0.2179 ± 0.0043`, lower is better | WildFIRE-FM | |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## How To Cite |
|
|
| If you use WildFIRE-FM, the released checkpoints, the fixed-contract evaluation artifacts, or the paper-aligned scripts, please cite: |
|
|
| ```bibtex |
| @misc{wildfire_fm_evaluation_contracts_2026, |
| title = {Does Your Wildfire Prediction Model Actually Work, or Just Score Well?}, |
| author = {Yangshuang Xu and Yuyang Dai and Liling Chang and Qi Wang and Yushun Dong}, |
| year = {2026}, |
| note = {WildFIRE-FM model and fixed-contract wildfire evaluation artifacts} |
| } |
| ``` |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| WildFIRE-FM is released to make wildfire Earth-FM transfer comparisons easier to inspect, reproduce at the artifact level, and evaluate under explicit contracts. |
