| # generator_v25 — persistence specialists |
| |
| Lineage: v18 → v22 → v23 → v24 → v25. Fork of v24. |
| |
| ## What the lineage established |
| |
| Paired attribution against the reigning king (UID 158) over 1536 fresh windows |
| (July 27-29, two window seeds each) located the gap precisely. Sorting upstream |
| feeds by how often they repeat the previous sample ordered v18's losses almost |
| perfectly: |
| |
| | feed | windows | zero-diff frac | levels | v18 vs king | v24 vs king | |
| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |
| | gbfs_bergen_station_status | 57 | 0.968 | 7 | -76.9% | -53.4% | |
| | nextbike_zagreb_station_status | 87 | 0.949 | 12 | -52.6% | -37.9% | |
| | gbfs_trondheim_station_status | 32 | 0.925 | 9 | -20.8% | -17.5% | |
| | gbfs_bicing_barcelona_station_status | 88 | 0.638 | 20 | +5.6% | +4.4% | |
|
|
| Bergen and Zagreb alone account for about 4 of the 5 percentage points between |
| v18 and the king. These feeds hold a value bit-exact for tens of samples, so |
| their naive-difference scale is tiny and a forecast that drifts even a fraction |
| of one count is punished heavily. |
|
|
| Three attempts narrowed down what actually helps: |
|
|
| * **v22** (dock family + a blanket link rounding all families onto small integer |
| ranges) scored 0.40635 against v18's 0.39113. The targeted part worked (Bergen |
| +32%) but the blanket link coarsened the fine-grained feeds, costing 10% on |
| Barcelona and 49% on German hospitalization counts. |
| * **v23** re-targeted the link on flat fraction rather than capacity. Result |
| discarded: three copies of the run launched at once and overwrote each other's |
| checkpoint directory. |
| * **v24** (dock family only, 14% mass) reached 0.39272, a tie with v18, at full |
| token parity — 9.64B tokens against v18's 9.73B. It won exactly where aimed |
| (Bergen +13.3%, Zagreb +9.6%, NY COVID testing +15.3%) but the mass it took |
| from `ou_stochastic_vol`, `regime_shift`, `integrated`, and `threshold_ar` cost |
| 19.7% on NZ electricity prices over 101 windows, cancelling the gain. |
|
|
| ## Changes in v25 |
|
|
| * New `piecewise_level` family at 11% mass. Levels are held exactly constant for |
| hundreds of steps and broken by rare changes, with a bounded-integer variant |
| (3-40 capacity, unit moves) and a continuous variant. Change rates are drawn |
| log-uniformly over 0.05%-9% of samples, so the corpus spans both the |
| near-frozen feeds and the moderately active ones. Only a quarter of continuous |
| rows carry reading noise; the rest stay bit-exact, which is the property the |
| metric rewards most. |
| * `dock_occupancy` raised to 15% and sharpened toward the flat band the pool |
| actually occupies: swing 0.03-0.6 of capacity (was 0.04-1.1), jump rate |
| 0.002-0.09 (was 0.003-0.2), seasonal amplitude up to 0.30 of capacity (was |
| 0.45). Median flat fraction moves from 0.81 to 0.89. |
| * Funding now comes only from `forecast_tasks` (0.435 → 0.261) and the generic |
| stochastic families. `regime_shift`, `integrated`, `threshold_ar`, |
| `ou_stochastic_vol`, `pulse_outlier`, `tidal_harmonic`, `physical_sensors`, |
| `seasonal_counts`, `intermittent`, `stable_calendar_counts`, and |
| `conditional_stability` are restored to their v18 weights, since those are what |
| serve the spiky price and sensor feeds v24 damaged. |
| * `observation.small_count_rate` stays at 0, so no blanket requantization. |
|
|
| ## Corpus coverage, last 512 points of 2000 series |
|
|
| | | flat >= 0.8 | flat >= 0.90 | flat >= 0.95 | <= 24 levels | |
| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |
| | pool | 43.7% | 23.1% | 11.8% | 64.5% | |
| | v18 | 11.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 13.4% | |
| | v24 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 22.9% | |
| | v25 | 25.6% | 22.5% | 19.8% | 32.0% | |
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|
| Throughput is 799 series/s against v18's 729 measured back-to-back, since both |
| new families are cheaper per row than the `forecast_tasks` mass they replace, so |
| the training budget should not lose tokens. |
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|
