model_cards/B2.md

Model Card · B2 — Will this event require a road closure?

Generated 2026-09-02 from reports/ — do not edit by hand.

What this model answers

Will this event require a road closure?

Caveats

• 8.727% positive class. Read PR-AUC against that prevalence, not against 1.0 - the best family is a 4.1x lift over it.

Results

Ranked by PR-AUC ↑ (higher is better). Every family that ran is listed, including those that lost — the comparison is the deliverable. Figures are means over 5 chronological folds, ± one standard deviation.

Model	Family	PR-AUC ↑	ROC-AUC ↑	Brier ↓	Best F1 ↑	Fit	Beats baseline
catboost	gbdt	0.3615 ± 0.071	0.7684	0.0688	0.4323	3s	yes
random_forest	trees	0.3578 ± 0.080	0.7723	0.0712	0.4326	1s	yes
lightgbm	gbdt	0.3471 ± 0.060	0.7583	0.0746	0.4144	6s	yes
xgboost	gbdt	0.3445 ± 0.081	0.7565	0.0703	0.4093	1s	yes
logistic	linear	0.3304 ± 0.065	0.7584	0.0713	0.3818	0s	yes
hist_gbm	gbdt	0.3269 ± 0.061	0.7366	0.0724	0.3855	7s	yes
extra_trees	trees	0.3024 ± 0.083	0.7443	0.0734	0.3883	0s	yes
prior	baseline	0.0873 ± 0.015	0.5000	0.0798	0.1602	0s	baseline

Best learned family: catboost at 0.3615, 4.1x the strongest baseline (prior at 0.0873).

Reproduction

make data && make ingest && make features
make train-b

Seed 42. Splits are chronological, never random.