model_cards/B3.md

Model Card · B3 — Is this event High or Low priority?

Generated 2026-09-02 from reports/ — do not edit by hand.

What this model answers

Is this event High or Low priority?

Caveats

• NOT A PREDICTION (F13). priority is a deterministic operational rule: corridor status predicts High at 99.84%, with 13 exceptions in 8,173 events.
• Scores near 1.0 reflect that rule, not learned structure. Reporting them as modelling performance would be misleading.

Results

Ranked by PR-AUC ↑ (higher is better). Every family that ran is listed, including those that lost — the comparison is the deliverable. Figures are means over 5 chronological folds, ± one standard deviation.

Model	Family	PR-AUC ↑	ROC-AUC ↑	Brier ↓	Best F1 ↑	Fit	Beats baseline
catboost	gbdt	0.9999 ± 0.000	0.9998	0.0022	0.9990	2s	yes
hist_gbm	gbdt	0.9998 ± 0.000	0.9997	0.0032	0.9985	2s	yes
lightgbm	gbdt	0.9997 ± 0.001	0.9997	0.0016	0.9992	3s	yes
xgboost	gbdt	0.9994 ± 0.001	0.9992	0.0028	0.9982	1s	yes
random_forest	trees	0.9974 ± 0.005	0.9980	0.0394	0.9975	0s	yes
extra_trees	trees	0.9972 ± 0.005	0.9977	0.0730	0.9975	0s	yes
logistic	linear	0.9934 ± 0.008	0.9951	0.0060	0.9975	0s	yes
prior	baseline	0.6146 ± 0.024	0.5000	0.2370	0.7611	0s	baseline

Best learned family: catboost at 0.9999, +62.7% against the strongest baseline (prior at 0.6146).

Reproduction

make data && make ingest && make features
make train-b

Seed 42. Splits are chronological, never random.