Auto-sync: 2026-06-29 02:18:16 (part 3)

results/paper_analysis.md

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # Paper Analysis
 
-Generated: `2026-06-29T06:12:41+00:00`
+Generated: `2026-06-29T06:15:24+00:00`
 
 ## Main Seed Statistics
 

results/paper_core_results.md

@@ -45,6 +45,7 @@ and the remaining clean-to-same-state proposal gap is `+21.74 pp`.
 | K4 mean-by-type residual retrieval + source-progress prior 0.05 | No | No | 35.13% | +5.39 pp | A stronger measured-progress prior over-selects nonzero residuals and drops below the plateau |
 | K4 mean-by-type residual retrieval + source-score prior 0.015/0.020 | No | No | 35.25% | +5.51 pp | Full train reward score, including terminal success, also replaces the typed prior without improving it |
 | K4 mean-by-type residual retrieval + source-score prior 0.025 | No | No | 35.19% | +5.45 pp | A stronger reward-score prior drops below the plateau |
+| K4 mean-by-type residual retrieval, no-op-only residuals | No | No | 35.19% | +5.45 pp | Removing wrong-gripper residuals loses one success versus the 35.25% safe-family plateau; the core gain is sparse no-op/tangent repair, with wrong-gripper acting only as a marginal helper |
 | K4 mean-by-type residual retrieval + no-op prior + source-progress gate | No | No | 34.72-35.19% | +4.99-5.45 pp | Train-source progress viability is a near-tie/negative gate; soft threshold 0.25 is closest, while stricter thresholds over-abstain below the no-op plateau |
 | K4 task-relative mean-by-type residual retrieval + no-op prior 0.03 | No | No | 34.43% | +4.70 pp | Task-relative target/reference pose retrieval underperforms the raw-metric no-op plateau |
 | K4 kernel-weighted residual consensus + no-op prior 0.03 | No | No | 35.13-35.19% | +5.39-5.45 pp | Distance-weighted tangent interpolation is plausible but does not beat equal mean-consensus no-op plateau |
@@ -87,19 +88,20 @@ Suggested main-table rows:
 12. K4 train-state residual retrieval, mean-by-type tangent consensus
 13. K4 mean-by-type residual retrieval + no-op prior plateau, canonical 0.03
 14. K4 mean-by-type residual retrieval + source-progress/source-score prior diagnostics
-15. Source-progress viability gate diagnostics
-16. K2/K4 task-relative retrieval metric diagnostics
-17. K4 kernel-weighted residual consensus + no-op prior diagnostics
-18. K4 field-softmax residual barycenter + margin diagnostics
-19. K4 mean-by-type residual retrieval + wrong-gripper typed-prior diagnostics
-20. K2 broad tangent ray-search
-21. Residual-tangent distillation policy
-22. Residual+Gaussian hybrid, K32 sigma0.35
-23. Lattice, near-miss only
-24. Lattice, no expert
-25. Lattice, no expert + policy baseline candidate
-26. Lattice, full
-27. Oracle ceiling
+15. K4 mean-by-type residual retrieval + no-op-only family diagnostic
+16. Source-progress viability gate diagnostics
+17. K2/K4 task-relative retrieval metric diagnostics
+18. K4 kernel-weighted residual consensus + no-op prior diagnostics
+19. K4 field-softmax residual barycenter + margin diagnostics
+20. K4 mean-by-type residual retrieval + wrong-gripper typed-prior diagnostics
+21. K2 broad tangent ray-search
+22. Residual-tangent distillation policy
+23. Residual+Gaussian hybrid, K32 sigma0.35
+24. Lattice, near-miss only
+25. Lattice, no expert
+26. Lattice, no expert + policy baseline candidate
+27. Lattice, full
+28. Oracle ceiling
 
 Suggested claim:
 
@@ -109,7 +111,7 @@ Suggested claim:
 > progress/reward-score prior gives the strongest clean gain so far, while ungated KNN residual
 > retrieval, field-gradient ascent, broader non-expert BC targets, field-teacher/tangent distillation, z-score/task-relative retrieval,
 > train-family reliability priors, policy-relative anchoring, residual+Gaussian hybrids,
-> source-progress viability gates, overly strong train-outcome priors, tangent consensus, kernel-weighted tangent interpolation, field-softmax tangent barycenters, tangent ray-search, wrong-gripper typed priors, and same-state policy-baseline fallback fail to improve the main rows.
+> source-progress viability gates, no-op-only family masking, overly strong train-outcome priors, tangent consensus, kernel-weighted tangent interpolation, field-softmax tangent barycenters, tangent ray-search, wrong-gripper typed priors, and same-state policy-baseline fallback fail to improve the main rows.
 > The large effect appears only when the field is queried on
 > same-state intervention proposals, and the mechanism is isolated to local near-miss
 > counterfactual geometry.

results/paper_story_memo.md

@@ -33,6 +33,7 @@ when queried on proposal geometry that matches those local counterfactuals.
 | Tangent ray-search does not beat the typed-prior clean row | K1/K2 tight scale-grid ray search reach 34.84%; K2 broad reaches 34.96%; K4 tight reaches 34.55%, all below the no-op-prior row at 35.25% | Near-tie/negative diagnostic |
 | Typed no-op residual prior improves the clean bridge | CPU smoke `14883591` passed; bonuses 0.025/0.03/0.035 tie at 35.25%, while 0.01/0.02/0.05/0.08 are slightly lower | Current best clean diagnostic |
 | Wrong-gripper typed prior does not add a new clean bridge | wrong-gripper-only reaches 35.19%; no-op+wrong-gripper 0.02 ties 35.25%; no-op+wrong-gripper 0.04 drops to 35.13% | Negative/tie diagnostic |
+| No-op-only residuals nearly preserve the clean bridge | excluding wrong-gripper residuals gives 35.19% with either no-op bonus 0.03 or source-score bonus 0.02, one success below the 35.25% safe-family plateau | Mechanism sharpened: wrong-gripper is marginal, not core |
 | The proposal gap is now quantified | `paper_analysis.md` reports best clean +5.51 pp over canonical h16, same-state no-expert +27.25 pp, leaving a +21.74 pp clean-to-same-state gap | Core paper tension |
 | Policy fallback is not the same-state mechanism | adding a policy baseline candidate to the no-expert same-state lattice drops 56.99% to 40.70% even with margin 0.00 | Negative diagnostic |
 | Z-score retrieval metric does not help | z-score rows reach 32.23-32.81%, below raw retrieval | Negative diagnostic |
@@ -67,14 +68,15 @@ clean proposal result, the intended main rows are:
 15. K4 mean-by-type tangent consensus + typed no-op prior 0.025-0.035: 35.25%
 16. K4 mean-by-type tangent consensus + train-source progress prior: 35.25% at bonus 0.03; 35.13% at bonus 0.05
 17. K4 mean-by-type tangent consensus + train-source reward-score prior: 35.25% at bonuses 0.015/0.020; 35.19% at 0.025
-18. Source-progress viability gates: 35.19% / 34.96% / 34.72% for thresholds 0.25 / 0.50 / 0.75
-19. K4 kernel-weighted tangent consensus / + no-op prior: 34.96% / 35.19%
-20. K4 field-softmax tangent transport / best margin sweep: 34.96% / 35.19%
-21. Wrong-gripper prior / no-op+wrong-gripper prior: 35.19% / 35.25%
-22. K2 broad tangent ray-search: 34.96%
-23. K1/K2 tight tangent ray-search: 34.84% / 34.84%
-24. K4 tight tangent ray-search: 34.55%
-25. Residual-tangent distillation policy: 28.87%
+18. K4 mean-by-type tangent consensus, no-op-only residuals: 35.19% with either no-op bonus 0.03 or source-score bonus 0.02
+19. Source-progress viability gates: 35.19% / 34.96% / 34.72% for thresholds 0.25 / 0.50 / 0.75
+20. K4 kernel-weighted tangent consensus / + no-op prior: 34.96% / 35.19%
+21. K4 field-softmax tangent transport / best margin sweep: 34.96% / 35.19%
+22. Wrong-gripper prior / no-op+wrong-gripper prior: 35.19% / 35.25%
+23. K2 broad tangent ray-search: 34.96%
+24. K1/K2 tight tangent ray-search: 34.84% / 34.84%
+25. K4 tight tangent ray-search: 34.55%
+26. Residual-tangent distillation policy: 28.87%
 26. Z-score residual retrieval: 32.23-32.81%
 27. Task-relative residual retrieval metric: 34.26-34.43%
 28. Train-family reliability prior: 33.28-33.33%
@@ -111,9 +113,9 @@ test-time search. The cleaner novelty is:
 
 ## Job Status
 
-Last checked: `2026-06-29 05:54 UTC`. The source-score bonus-prior batch
-completed after passing CPU/unit smokes, and the paper table/paired analysis now
-include progress and reward-score train-outcome priors.
+Last checked: `2026-06-29 06:13 UTC`. The no-op-only residual-family ablation
+completed after CPU smokes and GPU arrays, and the paper table/paired analysis
+now include both full safe-family and no-op-only train-outcome prior rows.
 
 - `14858328`-`14858333`: completed train-split `field_selected_noexpert_bc5`;
   direct rollout is 26.84%, field-guided best is 27.65%.
@@ -253,6 +255,13 @@ include progress and reward-score train-outcome priors.
   Bonuses `0.015` and `0.020` tie the current best at 35.25%; bonus `0.025`
   reaches 35.19%. Summary jobs `14897126`/`14897127`/`14897128` and rebuild job
   `14897129` completed.
+- `14897548`/`14897549`: completed no-op-only CPU rollout smokes after excluding
+  wrong-gripper residuals from the safe residual family.
+- `14897563`/`14897564`: completed no-op-only GPU arrays. Both no-op bonus
+  `0.03` and source-score bonus `0.02` reach 35.19%, one success below the
+  35.25% safe-family plateau. Summary jobs `14897565`/`14897566` and rebuild
+  job `14897567` were submitted; local summary/analysis rebuilds were also run
+  while the CPU summary job was still pending.
 - `14869627`: completed CPU Apptainer smoke for the new residual scale-grid
   selector. It selected index `3` on a two-residual/two-scale toy case and
   returned the expected action `0.20`, validating the candidate expansion and
@@ -277,9 +286,10 @@ include progress and reward-score train-outcome priors.
   the current best clean deployment diagnostic, not as a SOTA claim. The
   continuous train-source progress prior at bonus 0.03 ties this result without
   a hand typed no-op prior; train-source reward-score priors at 0.015/0.020 also
-  tie it. This is a cleaner story hook but still not a higher SOTA number. The
-  completed K2/ray-search rows are near-ties that support the sparse-intervention
-  story.
+  tie it. The no-op-only family ablation reaches 35.19%, so wrong-gripper
+  residuals are a marginal helper rather than the core mechanism. This is a
+  cleaner story hook but still not a higher SOTA number. The completed
+  K2/ray-search rows are near-ties that support the sparse-intervention story.
 - Use `results/paper_analysis.md` for paired seed deltas, per-task gaps, and
   selection histograms when writing reviewer-facing tables.
 - Treat z-score and task-relative retrieval metrics, source-progress viability gates,

scripts/build_paper_analysis.py

@@ -163,6 +163,38 @@ METHODS = [
             "k4s040_safe_margin0p20_mean_by_type_noopbonus0p03_srcprog0p25_summary.json"
         ),
     ),
+    MethodSpec(
+        key="residual_k4_consensus_margin015_noopbonus003",
+        label="K4 mean-by-type tangent consensus, margin 0.15, no-op bonus 0.03",
+        summary_path=(
+            "h16_policy_ckpt_near_miss_policy_bc5_bestpt_retrieval_residual_"
+            "k4s040_safe_margin0p15_mean_by_type_noopbonus0p03_summary.json"
+        ),
+    ),
+    MethodSpec(
+        key="residual_k4_consensus_margin025_noopbonus003",
+        label="K4 mean-by-type tangent consensus, margin 0.25, no-op bonus 0.03",
+        summary_path=(
+            "h16_policy_ckpt_near_miss_policy_bc5_bestpt_retrieval_residual_"
+            "k4s040_safe_margin0p25_mean_by_type_noopbonus0p03_summary.json"
+        ),
+    ),
+    MethodSpec(
+        key="residual_k4_consensus_margin015_srcscorebonus002",
+        label="K4 mean-by-type tangent consensus, margin 0.15, source-score bonus 0.02",
+        summary_path=(
+            "h16_policy_ckpt_near_miss_policy_bc5_bestpt_retrieval_residual_"
+            "k4s040_safe_margin0p15_mean_by_type_srcscorebonus0p02_summary.json"
+        ),
+    ),
+    MethodSpec(
+        key="residual_k4_consensus_margin025_srcscorebonus002",
+        label="K4 mean-by-type tangent consensus, margin 0.25, source-score bonus 0.02",
+        summary_path=(
+            "h16_policy_ckpt_near_miss_policy_bc5_bestpt_retrieval_residual_"
+            "k4s040_safe_margin0p25_mean_by_type_srcscorebonus0p02_summary.json"
+        ),
+    ),
     MethodSpec(
         key="residual_k4_consensus_nooponly_noopbonus003",
         label="K4 mean-by-type tangent consensus, no-op-only residuals, no-op bonus 0.03",

scripts/build_paper_table_status.py

@@ -465,6 +465,46 @@ SPECS = [
         story_role="soft train-source viability gate for sparse residual transport",
         pending_job="14894438/14894439",
     ),
+    ResultSpec(
+        key="retrieval_residual_k4_mean_margin015_noopbonus003",
+        label="K4 mean-by-type residual retrieval, scale 0.40, margin 0.15, no-op bonus 0.03",
+        path="h16_policy_ckpt_near_miss_policy_bc5_bestpt_retrieval_residual_k4s040_safe_margin0p15_mean_by_type_noopbonus0p03_summary.json",
+        clean_deployment="yes",
+        same_state_proposals="no",
+        expert_proposal="no",
+        story_role="advantage-abstention margin fine sweep for sparse residual transport",
+        pending_job="14897841/14897845",
+    ),
+    ResultSpec(
+        key="retrieval_residual_k4_mean_margin025_noopbonus003",
+        label="K4 mean-by-type residual retrieval, scale 0.40, margin 0.25, no-op bonus 0.03",
+        path="h16_policy_ckpt_near_miss_policy_bc5_bestpt_retrieval_residual_k4s040_safe_margin0p25_mean_by_type_noopbonus0p03_summary.json",
+        clean_deployment="yes",
+        same_state_proposals="no",
+        expert_proposal="no",
+        story_role="advantage-abstention margin fine sweep for sparse residual transport",
+        pending_job="14897842/14897846",
+    ),
+    ResultSpec(
+        key="retrieval_residual_k4_mean_margin015_srcscorebonus002",
+        label="K4 mean-by-type residual retrieval, scale 0.40, margin 0.15, source-score bonus 0.02",
+        path="h16_policy_ckpt_near_miss_policy_bc5_bestpt_retrieval_residual_k4s040_safe_margin0p15_mean_by_type_srcscorebonus0p02_summary.json",
+        clean_deployment="yes",
+        same_state_proposals="no",
+        expert_proposal="no",
+        story_role="advantage-abstention margin fine sweep with measured train-source prior",
+        pending_job="14897843/14897847",
+    ),
+    ResultSpec(
+        key="retrieval_residual_k4_mean_margin025_srcscorebonus002",
+        label="K4 mean-by-type residual retrieval, scale 0.40, margin 0.25, source-score bonus 0.02",
+        path="h16_policy_ckpt_near_miss_policy_bc5_bestpt_retrieval_residual_k4s040_safe_margin0p25_mean_by_type_srcscorebonus0p02_summary.json",
+        clean_deployment="yes",
+        same_state_proposals="no",
+        expert_proposal="no",
+        story_role="advantage-abstention margin fine sweep with measured train-source prior",
+        pending_job="14897844/14897848",
+    ),
     ResultSpec(
         key="retrieval_residual_k4_mean_nooponly_noopbonus003",
         label="K4 mean-by-type residual retrieval, scale 0.40, margin 0.20, no-op-only residuals, no-op bonus 0.03",