Add temporal generalization results (2019, 2015 time travel tests)
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README.md
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@@ -99,6 +99,22 @@ The model learned **political identity**, not policy platforms:
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- The 3 psychographic variables compress the "culture war" aspects of Canadian politics
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- Model excels at identity/affect prediction, struggles with budget details
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### Implications
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This model is ideal for:
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- The 3 psychographic variables compress the "culture war" aspects of Canadian politics
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- Model excels at identity/affect prediction, struggles with budget details
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## Temporal Generalization
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We tested the model on older CES surveys to measure temporal transfer:
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| Election | Prime Minister | Correlation | Retention |
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|----------|---------------|-------------|-----------|
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| **2021** (training) | Trudeau (Liberal) | r = 0.428 | — |
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| **2019** (same PM) | Trudeau (Liberal) | r = 0.353 | 82% |
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| **2015** (different PM) | Harper (Conservative) | r = 0.206 | 49% |
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**Key Finding**: The model is *government-specific*, not time-specific:
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- **High transfer under same PM**: "Dissatisfied with Trudeau" maintains consistent left-right valence across 2019-2021
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- **Poor transfer across PMs**: "Dissatisfied with Harper" has *opposite* valence (Liberal-leaning in 2015) from "dissatisfied with Trudeau" (Conservative-leaning in 2021)
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This confirms the psychographic compression captures incumbent-relative affect, not arbitrary noise.
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### Implications
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This model is ideal for:
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