Persistence, 1 degree

Holds the most recent analysis constant at every lead hour, on a 1 degree global grid (181 x 360, pole to pole inclusive, longitude 0-360).

Input is a 0.25 degree analysis; the 1 degree grid is a strict subset of it, so the model selects the collocated points rather than interpolating. No values are invented.

Output is temperature_2m in Kelvin, shaped (lead, lat, lon), at 6-hourly steps to +168h.

Why persistence

Persistence is the standard reference forecast in meteorology. It is trivial to compute and its error curve is known in advance -- small at short leads, growing steadily -- which makes it useful as a skill floor and as a check that a scoring pipeline is behaving.

Files

predict.py -- run(inputs, declaration, init_time)
earthboi.yaml -- the declaration: variables, lead hours, grid

Licence

MIT.