2084Collective/kalshibench-v1 · Datasets at Hugging Face

id stringlengths 5 30	question stringlengths 16 288	description stringlengths 58 1.97k	category stringclasses 16 values	close_time stringdate 2021-09-01 23:00:00 2025-11-16 23:00:00	ground_truth stringclasses 2 values	market_probability null	series_ticker stringlengths 5 30	source stringclasses 1 value
KXKLARSTRIP	Will Klarna or Stripe IPO first?	If Stripe confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.	Financials	2025-09-19T17:09:26.083997Z	no	null	KXKLARSTRIP	kalshi
KXG7LEADEROUT	Will Shigeru Ishiba leave office next in this set?	If Shigeru Ishiba is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that a leader will leave their position is not sufficient to resolve the Payout Criterion; the individual must actually leave and no longer hold the title. If any leader leaves solely because they have died, then all markets will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death) or another fair price.	Politics	2025-10-22T18:43:14.578514Z	yes	null	KXG7LEADEROUT	kalshi
KXNEXTPOPE	Who will the next Pope be?	If Pablo Virgilio David becomes the first person elected Pope before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes. The person elected must also accept the office.	World	2025-05-08T17:26:39.337569Z	no	null	KXNEXTPOPE	kalshi
KXLALEADEROUT	Will Nicolás Maduro leave office next in this set?	If President of Venezuela is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that a leader will leave their position is not sufficient to resolve the Payout Criterion; the individual must actually leave and no longer hold the title. If any leader leaves solely because they have died, then all markets will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death) or another fair price.	Politics	2025-10-11T22:32:48.090389Z	no	null	KXLALEADEROUT	kalshi
KXEULEADEROUT	Will Ulf Kristersson leave office next in this set?	If the Prime Minister of Sweden is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that a leader will leave their position is not sufficient to resolve the Payout Criterion; the individual must actually leave and no longer hold the title. If any leader leaves solely because they have died, then all markets will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death) or another fair price.	Politics	2025-05-06T23:09:54.892075Z	no	null	KXEULEADEROUT	kalshi
KXASIALEADEROUT	Will Yoon Suk Yeol leave office next in this set?	If the President of South Korea is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that a leader will leave their position is not sufficient to resolve the Payout Criterion; the individual must actually leave and no longer hold the title. If any leader leaves solely because they have died, then all markets will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death) or another fair price.	Politics	2025-04-05T17:23:10.564477Z	yes	null	KXASIALEADEROUT	kalshi
KXJOBLESS	Will initial jobless claims be higher than 350,000 for the week ending August 28, 2021?	If initial jobless claims are greater than 350,000 for the week ending on August 28, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Please see JOBS in the Rulebook for more details.	Economics	2021-09-01T23:00:00Z	no	null	KXJOBLESS	kalshi
KXNYKCOACH	Who will be the head next coach of New York Pro Men's Basketball?	If the next permanent head coach of New York Pro men's Basketball team is Micah Nori, then the market resolves to Yes.	Sports	2025-07-08T14:26:25.840287Z	no	null	KXNYKCOACH	kalshi
KXNONCOMPETEBAN	FTC non-compete ban overturned?	If the FTC's non-compete ban has been overturned by the courts or by Congress by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-10-28T20:28:08.06122Z	yes	null	KXNONCOMPETEBAN	kalshi
KXROMANIATOP	Will Nicușor Dan be 1st in the next Romanian presidential election first round?	If Nicușor Dan receives more votes than any other candidate in the next first round of the Romanian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.	Elections	2025-05-08T16:45:12.786768Z	no	null	KXROMANIATOP	kalshi
KXNEWROLEVOGUE	Who will be the next Editor-in-Chief of Vogue?	If Michael Sebastian is confirmed as the next Editor-in-Chief for Vogue before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.	Companies	2025-09-02T19:49:12.682153Z	no	null	KXNEWROLEVOGUE	kalshi
KXHALFTRIL	When will there be a half-trillionaire?	If there is a person with an estimated net worth of $500 billion or more before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. The Forbes billlionaire list will be checked at 10:00 AM ET daily.	Economics	2025-11-03T15:24:02.141006Z	yes	null	KXHALFTRIL	kalshi
KXGERCOALITION	Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP make up the next government of Germany?	If the CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP make up the next elected government of Germany, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-05-08T20:15:39.457949Z	no	null	KXGERCOALITION	kalshi
KXCANCOALITION	Will Liberal minority make up the next government of Canada?	If the Liberal minority make up the next elected government of Canada, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-05-27T16:25:47.882948Z	yes	null	KXCANCOALITION	kalshi
KXBTCETHATH	Will Ethereum hit an all-time high again before Bitcoin does?	If Ethereum hits an all-time high before Bitcoin, then the market resolves to Yes. The current ATH values are 73265.12 for Bitcoin, and 4848.91 for Ethereum. If neither hit an all-time high between May 2, 2024 and before Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to No. Only values quoted from weekdays the stock market is open will be used. The values for the cryptocurrencies are taken by taking an average of the five minutes of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) and Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI) before any given time, excluding the top 20% and bottom 20% of values.	Crypto	2024-11-15T14:44:51.992585Z	no	null	KXBTCETHATH	kalshi
KXDEBTSHRINK	Will the national debt shrink at any point during the Trump Administration?	If the U.S. federal debt below in any quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification 4/22/25 3:00 AM ET: The value for Q4 2024 is $36,218,605 (recorded in millions of dollars). To be clear, if the Federal Debt (Total Public Debt) is below this value ($36,218,605 million) in Q1, Q2, Q3, or Q4 of 2025, 2026, 2027, or 2028, then the market will resolve to Yes.	Politics	2025-06-04T18:57:44.353263Z	yes	null	KXDEBTSHRINK	kalshi
KXPENNYCONGRESS	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny?	If Congress passes a law that the penny will end before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-05-27T14:40:14.252112Z	yes	null	KXPENNYCONGRESS	kalshi
KXMTMCK	Will Trump rename Denali back to Mt. McKinley?	If Denali is renamed to Mt. McKinley before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-01-23T16:59:08.803738Z	yes	null	KXMTMCK	kalshi
KXEVCREDITS	Will Trump end the electric vehicle tax credit before Jan 20, 2029?	If the electric vehicle tax credit has been eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-07-07T19:52:47.944217Z	yes	null	KXEVCREDITS	kalshi
KXUSIL	Will Trump win his lawsuit against Illinois for its sancutary cities laws?	If the United States District Court for the Northern District of Illinois holds that any of Illinois' laws alleged by the Trump Administration violate the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-07-26T23:42:31.603794Z	no	null	KXUSIL	kalshi
KXDEVASANTRIX	Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Devas in Devas v. Antrix Corp.	If the Supreme Court, in Devas v. Antrix Corp., rules in favor of petitioner, finding that plaintiffs must not prove minimum contacts before federal courts may assert personal jurisdiction over foreign states sued under the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of petitioner, finding that plaintiffs must not prove minimum contacts before federal courts may assert personal jurisdiction over foreign states sued under the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act., then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court finds the writ of certiorari for Devas v. Antrix Corp. to be improperly granted, then the market resolves to No. If the Supreme Court remands Devas v. Antrix Corp. to the lower courts without ruling as described above, then the market resolves to No.	Politics	2025-06-05T18:34:47.616357Z	yes	null	KXDEVASANTRIX	kalshi
KXCATHOLICWISCNOSIN	Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Catholic Charities Bureau in Catholic Charities Bureau v. Wisconsin	If the Supreme Court, in Catholic Charities Bureau v. Wisconsin, rules in favor of petitioner, including by finding that a state violates the First Amendment's Religion Clauses by denying a religious organization an otherwise-available tax exemption because the organization does not meet the state's criteria for religious behavior, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of petitioner, including by finding that a state violates the First Amendment's Religion Clauses by denying a religious organization an otherwise-available tax exemption because the organization does not meet the state's criteria for religious behavior., then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court finds the writ of certiorari for Catholic Charities Bureau v. Wisconsin to be improperly granted, then the market resolves to No. If the Supreme Court remands Catholic Charities Bureau v. Wisconsin to the lower courts without ruling as described above, then the market resolves to No.	Politics	2025-06-05T18:35:00.145912Z	yes	null	KXCATHOLICWISCNOSIN	kalshi
KXBLOMHONICKMAN	Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Blom Bank in Blom Bank SAL v. Honickman, et al.	If the Supreme Court, in Blom Bank SAL v. Honickman, et al., rules in favor of petitioner, finding that Rule 60(b)(6) relief was wrongly granted, including because Rule 60(b)(6)'s stringent standard applies to a post-judgment request to vacate for the purpose of filing an amended complaint, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of petitioner, finding that Rule 60(b)(6) relief was wrongly granted, including because Rule 60(b)(6)'s stringent standard applies to a post-judgment request to vacate for the purpose of filing an amended complaint (If the judgment dismissing the case with prejudice remains in place, and the plaintiffs are not allowed to amend their complaint post-judgment, the Contract will resolve Yes. Any ruling that reinstates the district court’s final judgment – for example, by holding the Second Circuit applied the wrong standard – will cause the Contract to resolve Yes. Even if the Court remands for further consideration under a stricter standard, that counts as Yes, since the extraordinary-relief grant is vacated.), then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court finds the writ of certiorari for Blom Bank SAL v. Honickman, et al. to be improperly granted, then the market resolves to No. If the Supreme Court remands Blom Bank SAL v. Honickman, et al. to the lower courts without ruling as described above, then the market resolves to No.	Politics	2025-06-05T17:02:04.630781Z	yes	null	KXBLOMHONICKMAN	kalshi
KXBECERRABRAIDWOOD	Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of RFK and HHS in Becerra v. Braidwood Management	If the Supreme Court, in Becerra v. Braidwood Management, rules in favor of petitioner and finds that the court of appeals erred in holding that the structure of the Task Force violates the Appointments Clause, U.S. Const. Art. II, § 2, Cl. 2, and/or in declining to sever the statutory provision that it found to unduly insulate the Task Force from the HHS Secretary’s supervision, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of petitioner and finds that the court of appeals erred in holding that the structure of the Task Force violates the Appointments Clause, U.S. Const. Art. II, § 2, Cl. 2, and/or in declining to sever the statutory provision that it found to unduly insulate the Task Force from the HHS Secretary’s supervision (Any decision that reinstates coverage of USPSTF’s A/B recommendations as a federal requirement will resolve Yes), then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court finds the writ of certiorari for Becerra v. Braidwood Management to be improperly granted, then the market resolves to No. If the Supreme Court remands Becerra v. Braidwood Management to the lower courts without ruling as described above, then the market resolves to No.	Politics	2025-07-01T19:01:47.847522Z	yes	null	KXBECERRABRAIDWOOD	kalshi
KXBARNESFELIX	Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Barnes in Barnes v. Felix	If the Supreme Court, in Barnes v. Felix, rules in favor of petitioner and rejects the “moment of the threat” doctrine when evaluating an excessive force claim under the Fourth Amendment, or otherwise favors the Petitioner’s position that all relevant circumstances must be considered, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of petitioner and rejects the “moment of the threat” doctrine when evaluating an excessive force claim under the Fourth Amendment, or otherwise favors the Petitioner’s position that all relevant circumstances must be considered, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court finds the writ of certiorari for Barnes v. Felix to be improperly granted, then the market resolves to No. If the Supreme Court remands Barnes v. Felix to the lower courts without ruling as described above, then the market resolves to No.	Politics	2025-05-20T18:35:01.765026Z	yes	null	KXBARNESFELIX	kalshi
KXAVGMEASLESDJT	What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?	If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 50, then the market resolves to Yes.	Health	2025-03-12T17:03:57.278155Z	yes	null	KXAVGMEASLESDJT	kalshi
KXAMESOHIO	Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Ames in Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services	If the Supreme Court, in Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services, rules in favor of petitioners and eliminates, or no longer requires, the “background circumstances” rule for majority-group plaintiffs, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of petitioners and eliminates, or no longer requires, the “background circumstances” rule for majority-group plaintiffs, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court finds the writ of certiorari for Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services to be improperly granted, then the market resolves to No. If the Supreme Court remands Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services to the lower courts without ruling as described above, then the market resolves to No.	Politics	2025-06-05T18:34:34.702772Z	yes	null	KXAMESOHIO	kalshi
KXAJTOSSEO	Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of A.J.T. in A.J.T. v. Osseo Area Schools	If the Supreme Court, in A.J.T. v. Osseo Area Schools, rules in favor of petitioner, rejecting the heightened 'bad faith or gross misjudgment' standard for Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 and Rehabilitation Act of 1973 school cases, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of petitioner, rejecting the heightened 'bad faith or gross misjudgment' standard for Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 and Rehabilitation Act of 1973 school cases (Any decision that vacates or reverses the Eighth Circuit on this point counts – for example, a ruling that ordinary ADA/Rehabilitation Act standards apply in a manner contradictory to the Eighth Circuit’s ruling would resolve the contract to “Yes.”), then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court finds the writ of certiorari for A.J.T. v. Osseo Area Schools to be improperly granted, then the market resolves to No. If the Supreme Court remands A.J.T. v. Osseo Area Schools to the lower courts without ruling as described above, then the market resolves to No.	Politics	2025-06-12T16:08:18.617287Z	yes	null	KXAJTOSSEO	kalshi
KXADVOCATEBECERRA	Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Advocate Christ Medical Center in Advocate Christ Medical Center v. Becerra	If the Supreme Court, in Advocate Christ Medical Center v. Becerra, rules in favor of petitioners’ interpretation that “entitled to…SSI benefits” includes all who meet SSI eligibility, whether or not they received an SSI payment., then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of petitioners’ interpretation that “entitled to…SSI benefits” includes all who meet SSI eligibility, whether or not they received an SSI payment., then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court finds the writ of certiorari for Advocate Christ Medical Center v. Becerra to be improperly granted, then the market resolves to No. If the Supreme Court remands Advocate Christ Medical Center v. Becerra to the lower courts without ruling as described above, then the market resolves to No.	Politics	2025-04-29T14:37:38.265542Z	yes	null	KXADVOCATEBECERRA	kalshi
KXGOOGLEUS	Will a court find that Google has illegally maintained a monopoly?	If District Court for the District of Columbia rules that Google has illegally maintained a monopoly, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2024-08-06T22:23:17.00758Z	yes	null	KXGOOGLEUS	kalshi
KXOPENAISUIT	Musk wins OpenAI lawsuit?	If Elon Musk wins any of his requested judgments from OpenAI in Superior Court of California for the County of San Francisco by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.	Companies	2024-06-12T20:07:57.847322Z	no	null	KXOPENAISUIT	kalshi
KXPCOIE	Will Perkins Coie win their lawsuit against Trump?	If U.S. District Court for the District of District of Columbia rules that President Trump's Executive Order targeting Perkins Coie is unconstitutional before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-05-03T14:49:39.561889Z	yes	null	KXPCOIE	kalshi
KXAPSUIT	Will the AP win their lawsuit against the White House?	If the United States District Court for the District of Columbia rules that the White House’s prohibition on the Associated Press’ access to the White House is unlawful before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-04-08T23:07:36.03854Z	yes	null	KXAPSUIT	kalshi
KXJAMESBOND	Will Paul King direct James Bond?	If Paul King is chosen to be the director of the 26th James Bond movie the market resolves to Yes.	Entertainment	2025-06-26T01:56:15.519407Z	no	null	KXJAMESBOND	kalshi
KXACTORZELDA	Who will be cast in The Legend Of Zelda?	If Tye Sheridan is cast as Link in The Legend Of Zelda before Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.	Entertainment	2025-07-16T13:39:10.534552Z	no	null	KXACTORZELDA	kalshi
KXIPOSPACEX	When will SpaceX IPO?	If SpaceX confirms an IPO before Sep 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Sep 1, 2025.	Economics	2025-09-01T03:59:00Z	no	null	KXIPOSPACEX	kalshi
KXIPOOPENAI	When will OpenAI IPO?	If OpenAI confirms an IPO before Sep 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Sep 1, 2025.	Economics	2025-09-01T03:59:00Z	no	null	KXIPOOPENAI	kalshi
KXIPOKLARNA	When will Klarna IPO?	If Klarna confirms an IPO before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after May 1, 2027.	Economics	2025-09-02T16:02:30.65813Z	yes	null	KXIPOKLARNA	kalshi
KXIPODISCORD	When will Discord IPO?	If Discord confirms an IPO before Nov 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Nov 1, 2025.	Economics	2025-11-01T03:59:00Z	no	null	KXIPODISCORD	kalshi
KXIPOBEASTINDUSTRIES	When will Beast Industries IPO?	If Beast Industries confirms an IPO before Sep 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Sep 1, 2025.	Economics	2025-09-01T03:59:00Z	no	null	KXIPOBEASTINDUSTRIES	kalshi
KXMEDIARELEASEUPONLY	Will A New Episode of the UpOnly Podcast be released in Worldwide before Nov 1, 2025?	If A New Episode of the UpOnly Podcast has been publicly released worldwide through official channels before Nov 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. The media must be made available to the general public through at least one official distribution channel, including theatrical release, streaming availability, physical media (DVD, Blu-ray), or authorized digital purchase/download. The release must be accessible without special invitations or industry credentials in at least one major metropolitan area if the geography refers to a country. Private screenings, film festivals, leaked content, and torrent availability do not qualify. Trailers and soundtracks do not satisfy the criterion unless the full media is released. Different versions or formats of the same base content (theatrical, director's cut, extended edition) are considered the same media if the core content is substantially identical. Foreign language titles are considered the same media unless otherwise specified.	Entertainment	2025-11-01T04:00:00Z	no	null	KXMEDIARELEASEUPONLY	kalshi
KXSNAPCUTS	How much will the Republican reconcilliation bill cut food stamps funding?	If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 cuts at least $400 billion from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-07-06T01:20:00Z	no	null	KXSNAPCUTS	kalshi
KXREMITTANCERATE	How much will the Republicans tax on remittances be in their reconciliation bill?	If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 sets a tax rate on foreign remittances of at least 7%, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-07-06T01:20:00Z	no	null	KXREMITTANCERATE	kalshi
KXMEDICAIDCUTS	How much will the Republican reconcilliation bill cut Medicaid?	If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 cuts at least $800 billion from the Medicaid, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-07-08T21:44:19.08942Z	yes	null	KXMEDICAIDCUTS	kalshi
KXIRACUTS	How much will the Republican reconcilliation bill cut the Inflation Reduction Act's Energy, Production, and Manufacturing Credits?	If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 cuts at least $600 billion from the IRA's Subtitle D tax credits related to energy, production, and manufacturing, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-07-07T22:31:12.831662Z	no	null	KXIRACUTS	kalshi
KXINCOMERATE	What will Republicans set as the highest income tax rate in their reconciliation bill?	If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 sets a tax rate on ordinary income for the highest tax bracket (excluding surcharges) of at least 39.6, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-07-07T20:32:20.853571Z	no	null	KXINCOMERATE	kalshi
KXEDUCUTS	How much will the Republican reconcilliation bill cut education spending?	If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 cuts at least $5 billion from education spending, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-07-08T19:41:36.138307Z	yes	null	KXEDUCUTS	kalshi
KXWALLSPEND	How much will Republicans increase spending on a Mexican border wall in their reconcilliation bill?	If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 increases spending on a southern border wall by at least $50 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-07-16T15:19:44.731036Z	no	null	KXWALLSPEND	kalshi
KXUSTR	Will Jamieson Greer be confirmed as U.S. Trade Representative by Dec 31, 2026?	If Jamieson Greer is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be U.S. Trade Representative between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-02-26T17:58:35.237623Z	yes	null	KXUSTR	kalshi
KXUNAMB	Will Mike Waltz be confirmed as Ambassador to the United Nations by Dec 31, 2026?	If Mike Waltz is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Ambassador to the United Nations between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-09-22T02:49:17.13466Z	yes	null	KXUNAMB	kalshi
KXTOPSONGRECORDMANCHILD	How long will Manchild be #1?	If Manchild has had the #1 spot on the Billboard Hot 100 for more than 9 consecutive weeks, then the market resolves to Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Billboard. Any references to "Billboard", the "Hot 100," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Billboard and Kalshi. If this event occurs, or the streak ends, the market will close the following 10am ET. This market specifically encompasses the first streak Manchild holds.	Entertainment	2025-06-24T17:15:13.025402Z	no	null	KXTOPSONGRECORDMANCHILD	kalshi
KXTIKTOKSCOTUS	Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of TikTok?	If the Supreme Court rules that the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act is unconstitutional as applied to TikTok Inc. and ByteDance, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-01-17T15:19:40.180457Z	no	null	KXTIKTOKSCOTUS	kalshi
KXTIKTOKINJ	Will the Supreme Court grant TikTok's injunction against a ban?	If the Supreme Court of the United States enjoins the enforcement of the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act’s ban on TikTok from operating within the United States, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-01-17T15:19:59.275908Z	no	null	KXTIKTOKINJ	kalshi
KXSKRMETTI	Will the Supreme Court rule that banning gender-affirming surgery for minors is unconstitutional?	If the Supreme Court rules in US v. Skrmetti that Tennessee Bill 1 violates the Constitution, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-06-18T18:35:36.142679Z	no	null	KXSKRMETTI	kalshi
KXSECVA	Will Doug Collins be confirmed as Secretary of Veterans Affairs by Dec 31, 2026?	If Doug Collins is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Veterans Affairs between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-02-04T20:58:24.93571Z	yes	null	KXSECVA	kalshi
KXSECTREASURY	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Secretary of the Treasury by Dec 31, 2026?	If Kevin Warsh is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of the Treasury between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-01-28T03:32:46.492801Z	no	null	KXSECTREASURY	kalshi
KXSECTRANS	Will Sean Duffy be confirmed as Secretary of Transportation by Dec 31, 2026?	If Sean Duffy is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Transportation between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-01-29T22:39:38.347356Z	yes	null	KXSECTRANS	kalshi
KXSECSTATE	Will Robert O'Brien be confirmed as Secretary of State by Dec 31, 2026?	If Robert O'Brien is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of State between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-01-21T15:00:19.156043Z	no	null	KXSECSTATE	kalshi
KXSECLABOR	Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be confirmed as Secretary of Labor by Dec 31, 2026?	If Lori Chavez-DeRemer is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Labor between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-03-11T15:05:07.526807Z	yes	null	KXSECLABOR	kalshi
KXSECINT	Will Katharine MacGregor be confirmed as Secretary of the Interior by Dec 31, 2026?	If Katharine MacGregor is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of the Interior between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-01-31T14:57:09.36672Z	no	null	KXSECINT	kalshi
KXSECHUD	Will Scott Turner be confirmed as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development by Dec 31, 2026?	If Scott Turner is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Housing and Urban Development between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-02-05T20:19:50.270348Z	yes	null	KXSECHUD	kalshi
KXSECHOMELAND	Will Kristi Noem be confirmed as Secretary of Homeland Security by Dec 31, 2026?	If Kristi Noem is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Homeland Security between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-01-27T19:52:35.484396Z	yes	null	KXSECHOMELAND	kalshi
KXSECHHS	Will Joseph Ladapo be confirmed as Secretary of Health and Human Services by Dec 31, 2026?	If Joseph Ladapo is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Health and Human Services between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-02-13T17:45:47.505055Z	no	null	KXSECHHS	kalshi
KXSECENERGY	Will Mike Dunleavy be confirmed as Secretary of Energy by Dec 31, 2026?	If Mike Dunleavy is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Energy between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-02-04T14:35:11.559138Z	no	null	KXSECENERGY	kalshi
KXSECED	Will Linda McMahon be confirmed as Secretary of Education by Dec 31, 2026?	If Linda McMahon is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Education between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-03-03T23:47:19.008604Z	yes	null	KXSECED	kalshi
KXSECDEF	Will Mike Gallagher be confirmed as Secretary of Defense by Dec 31, 2026?	If Mike Gallagher is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Defense between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-01-25T05:39:04.042035Z	no	null	KXSECDEF	kalshi
KXSECCOM	Will Howard Lutnick be confirmed as Secretary of Commerce by Dec 31, 2026?	If Howard Lutnick is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Commerce between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-02-19T01:23:05.600114Z	yes	null	KXSECCOM	kalshi
KXSECCHAIR	Will Patrick Byrne be confirmed as SEC Chair by Dec 31, 2026?	If Patrick Byrne is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be SEC Chair between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-04-10T01:25:18.095758Z	no	null	KXSECCHAIR	kalshi
KXSECAGRO	Will Brooke Rollins be confirmed as Secretary of Agriculture by Dec 31, 2026?	If Brooke Rollins is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Agriculture between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-02-15T15:19:08.725378Z	yes	null	KXSECAGRO	kalshi
KXSECAG	Will Pam Bondi be confirmed as Attorney General by Dec 31, 2026?	If Pam Bondi is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Attorney General between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-02-05T13:24:46.878651Z	yes	null	KXSECAG	kalshi
KXROMANIATOP2	Who will win the first round of the Romanian presidential election?	If Călin Georgescu win the first round of the Romanian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-05-19T01:29:12.897224Z	no	null	KXROMANIATOP2	kalshi
KXROMANIABAN	Will Călin Georgescu be banned from the Romanian presidential election?	If Călin Georgescu is banned from competing in the Romanian presidential election on the day of the next first round, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-05-04T20:55:44.417723Z	yes	null	KXROMANIABAN	kalshi
KXROLLINGLOUD	Will Yo Yo Honey Singh be part of the lineup for Rolling Loud India in 2027?	If Yo Yo Honey Singh is announced as part of the initial lineup of Rolling Loud India, then the market resolves to Yes.	Entertainment	2025-09-08T17:04:40.336441Z	no	null	KXROLLINGLOUD	kalshi
KXRECCOST	How much will the Republicans' reconciliation bill cost?	If the cost of the next budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 is at least $6 trillion, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-07-07T20:00:15.066333Z	no	null	KXRECCOST	kalshi
KXQBIDEDUCT	What will the qualified business income (QBI) deduction be in the Republican reconciliation bill?	If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 sets the qualified business income (QBI) deudction to be at least 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-07-16T15:27:57.866212Z	yes	null	KXQBIDEDUCT	kalshi
KXPENNY	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny?	If the U.S. announces that the penny will end production before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that the penny will end is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the penny will continue production for some time.	Politics	2025-02-10T22:12:10.086657Z	yes	null	KXPENNY	kalshi
KXOSTP	Will Michael Kratsios be confirmed as OSTP Director by Dec 31, 2026?	If Michael Kratsios is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be OSTP Director between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-03-25T23:08:32.012474Z	yes	null	KXOSTP	kalshi
KXOMB	Will Russell Vought be confirmed as OMB Director by Dec 31, 2026?	If Russell Vought is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be OMB Director between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-02-07T19:52:58.29449Z	yes	null	KXOMB	kalshi
KXNYVOTING	Will the New York Court of Appeals rule in favor of allowing noncitizens to vote in municipal elections?	If the New York Court of Appeals has ruled on Fosella v. Adams and has ruled that New York’s municipal voter law is lawful before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-03-20T18:30:40.617929Z	no	null	KXNYVOTING	kalshi
KXNEXTCOACHOUTNBA	Who will be the next coach out in pro men's basketball?	If the head coach of Utah leaves (or announces they will leave) before any other head coach before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Interim/temporary coaches are not considered for the purposes of this market.	Sports	2025-11-15T16:23:34.210407Z	no	null	KXNEXTCOACHOUTNBA	kalshi
KXMOLDOVACOALITION	Will PN form the next government in Moldova?	If a coalition that includes PN is part of the next elected ruling government of Moldova before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government. This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances. Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description. Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.	Politics	2025-11-02T16:29:20.35301Z	no	null	KXMOLDOVACOALITION	kalshi
KXMEXAMB	Will Trump's Ambassador to Mexico be Kari Lake?	If Kari Lake is announced or appointed as the Ambassador to Mexico for President Trump, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2024-12-11T15:22:00Z	no	null	KXMEXAMB	kalshi
KXLEAVELECORNU	Will Sébastien Lecornu leave Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027?	If Sébastien Lecornu has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of France or has actually left as Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes upon either an official announcement of departure or actual departure from office. An announcement must be made by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the governing body of the office and reported by at least one Source Agency. Announcements of leaving more than one year from the statement do not resolve the market to Yes. Leaving office includes resignation, termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or term expiration without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining office do NOT qualify. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion. Forced departures satisfy the criterion even without prior announcement.	Politics	2025-10-13T16:01:04.878129Z	yes	null	KXLEAVELECORNU	kalshi
KXJUULFLAVOR	When will JUUL release Café Latte to the public?	If JUUL releases Café Latte to the public before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.	Companies	2025-07-19T18:32:41.147583Z	no	null	KXJUULFLAVOR	kalshi
KXISAMB	Will Mike Huckabee be confirmed as by Dec 31, 2026?	If Mike Huckabee is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Ambassador to Israel between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-04-09T20:47:23.109564Z	yes	null	KXISAMB	kalshi
KXGPTS	Will OpenAI release a model called GPT4.5 before one called GPT5?	If OpenAI releases a large language model called GPT4.5 before one called GPT5, before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If neither model is released before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to No.	Science and Technology	2025-02-27T20:38:23.471176Z	yes	null	KXGPTS	kalshi
KXGARLAND	Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of 'ghost gun' regulation?	If the Supreme Court rules in favor of Garland in Garland v. VanDerStok, then the market resolves to Yes. Specifically, if the Supreme Court’s initial ruling in Garland v. VanDerStok holds: 1. That a weapon parts kit that is designed to or may readily be complete, assembled, restored or otherwise converted to expel a projectile by the action of an explosive is a “firearm” regulated by the Gun Control Act of 1968; and/or 2. a partially complete, disassembled, or nonfunctional frame or receiver that is designed to or may readily be completed, assembled, restored, or otherwise converted to function as a frame or receiver is a “frame or receiver” regulated by the same Act; then the market resolves to Yes. If the Court remands the case without doing either, then the market resolves to No.	Politics	2025-03-26T17:49:57.721599Z	yes	null	KXGARLAND	kalshi
KXFTC	Will Mark Meador be confirmed as FTC commissioner by Dec 31, 2026?	If Mark Meador is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be FTC commissioner between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-04-10T21:46:10.170011Z	yes	null	KXFTC	kalshi
KXFIRSTEPSTEINGTA	Will more Epstein files happen before GTA VI?	If the release of new Epstein files happens before the public release of GTA VI, then the market resolves to Yes. The documents must discuss Epstein in connection with the associate, rather than simply be about them -- e.g. releasing a document about Bill Gates' charitable foundation would not resolve the market to Yes, even if they were connected. The Payout Criterion requires "previously unreleased" documents. These must contain novel material not previously available to the public. Documents that are merely re-released, repackaged, or newly publicized versions of already available information do not qualify	Social	2025-08-26T02:21:11.838293Z	yes	null	KXFIRSTEPSTEINGTA	kalshi
KXFDVWLFI	Will World Liberty Financial FDV be above 15B at 10:00 AM ET on Jan 1, 2027?	If World Liberty Financial (WLFI)'s fully diluted valuation (FDV) as displayed on CoinGecko is above 15B at exactly 10:00 AM ET on the day after its launch, then the market resolves to Yes. The FDV must be the value shown in the "FDV" field on the coin's main CoinGecko page, not calculated from other metrics. If no data is available at the specified time, the last FDV value shown before that time on the date will be used. If the coin is delisted from CoinGecko before the measurement date, the last recorded FDV will be used and the market will resolve immediately. Token migrations to new smart contract addresses are tracked continuously. If CoinGecko changes its FDV calculation methodology, the value displayed at the measurement time under the FDV label will be used regardless. Post-redenomination FDV values (after splits/reverse splits) will be used. All values are in USD as shown on CoinGecko. Values can be expressed in millions (M), billions (B), or trillions (T) format.	Crypto	2025-09-11T08:30:28.195008Z	yes	null	KXFDVWLFI	kalshi
KXFDVPLASMA	Will Plasma FDV be above $6000000000 at 10:00 AM ET on Jan 1, 2027?	If Plasma (XPL)'s fully diluted valuation (FDV) as displayed on CoinGecko is above 6000000000 at exactly 10:00 AM ET on the day after its launch, then the market resolves to Yes. The FDV must be the value shown in the "FDV" field on the coin's main CoinGecko page, not calculated from other metrics. If no data is available at the specified time, the last FDV value shown before that time on the date will be used. If the coin is delisted from CoinGecko before the measurement date, the last recorded FDV will be used and the market will resolve immediately. Token migrations to new smart contract addresses are tracked continuously. If CoinGecko changes its FDV calculation methodology, the value displayed at the measurement time under the FDV label will be used regardless. Post-redenomination FDV values (after splits/reverse splits) will be used. All values are in USD as shown on CoinGecko. Values can be expressed in millions (M), billions (B), or trillions (T) format.	Crypto	2025-09-29T23:05:23.572095Z	yes	null	KXFDVPLASMA	kalshi
KXFDAVAPE	Will the Supreme Court rule against the FDA's flavored vape ban?	If the Supreme Court rules in FDA v. Wages and White Lion Investments that the FDA's rejection of plaintiff's flavored e-cigarette application was arbitrary and capricious, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-04-02T16:14:34.423932Z	no	null	KXFDAVAPE	kalshi
KXFDA	Will Marty Makary be confirmed as FDA Administrator by Dec 31, 2026?	If Marty Makary is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be FDA Administrator between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-03-27T14:16:05.225677Z	yes	null	KXFDA	kalshi
KXFBI	Will Andrew Bailey be confirmed as Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation by Dec 31, 2026?	If Andrew Bailey is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-02-20T19:25:41.890404Z	no	null	KXFBI	kalshi
KXEPA	Will Lee Zeldin be confirmed as EPA Administrator by Dec 31, 2026?	If Lee Zeldin is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be EPA Administrator between November 8, 2024 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-01-29T23:13:29.862261Z	yes	null	KXEPA	kalshi
KXENDOWMENTRATE	How much will Republicans increase the university endowment tax in their reconciliation bill?	If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 sets the tax rate for net investment income for universities to at least 7%, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-07-07T20:33:04.425308Z	yes	null	KXENDOWMENTRATE	kalshi
KXDRAKEUMGSUIT	Will Drake win his lawsuit against UMG?	If UMG is held liable for any claim against Drake, then the market resolves to Yes. This market only concerns the initial judgement of the Southern District of New York. Appeals will not be considered.	Entertainment	2025-10-10T16:00:00Z	no	null	KXDRAKEUMGSUIT	kalshi
KXDNI	Will Robert O'Brien be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by Dec 31, 2026?	If Robert O'Brien is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Director of National Intelligence between November 14, 2024 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-02-12T23:28:04.152493Z	no	null	KXDNI	kalshi
KXDEFENSESPEND	How much will Republicans increase defense spending in their reconcilliation bill?	If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 increases defense spending by at least $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-07-07T22:40:28.159627Z	no	null	KXDEFENSESPEND	kalshi
KXDEDUCT	What will the standard deduction be in the Republican reconciliation bill?	If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 sets the standard deduction for married couples filing jointly to be at least $30 thousand, then the market resolves to Yes.	Politics	2025-07-07T20:39:53.107175Z	yes	null	KXDEDUCT	kalshi

KXKLARSTRIP

Will Klarna or Stripe IPO first?

If Stripe confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

Financials

2025-09-19T17:09:26.083997Z

no

null

KXKLARSTRIP

kalshi

KXG7LEADEROUT

Will Shigeru Ishiba leave office next in this set?

If Shigeru Ishiba is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that a leader will leave their position is not sufficient to resolve the Payout Criterion; the individual must actually leave and no longer hold the title. If any leader leaves solely because they have died, then all markets will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death) or another fair price.

Politics

2025-10-22T18:43:14.578514Z

yes

null

KXG7LEADEROUT

kalshi

KXNEXTPOPE

Who will the next Pope be?

If Pablo Virgilio David becomes the first person elected Pope before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes. The person elected must also accept the office.

World

2025-05-08T17:26:39.337569Z

no

null

KXNEXTPOPE

kalshi

KXLALEADEROUT

Will Nicolás Maduro leave office next in this set?

If President of Venezuela is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that a leader will leave their position is not sufficient to resolve the Payout Criterion; the individual must actually leave and no longer hold the title. If any leader leaves solely because they have died, then all markets will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death) or another fair price.

Politics

2025-10-11T22:32:48.090389Z

no

null

KXLALEADEROUT

kalshi

KXEULEADEROUT

Will Ulf Kristersson leave office next in this set?

If the Prime Minister of Sweden is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that a leader will leave their position is not sufficient to resolve the Payout Criterion; the individual must actually leave and no longer hold the title. If any leader leaves solely because they have died, then all markets will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death) or another fair price.

Politics

2025-05-06T23:09:54.892075Z

no

null

KXEULEADEROUT

kalshi

KXASIALEADEROUT

Will Yoon Suk Yeol leave office next in this set?

If the President of South Korea is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that a leader will leave their position is not sufficient to resolve the Payout Criterion; the individual must actually leave and no longer hold the title. If any leader leaves solely because they have died, then all markets will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death) or another fair price.

Politics

2025-04-05T17:23:10.564477Z

yes

null

KXASIALEADEROUT

kalshi

KXJOBLESS

Will initial jobless claims be higher than 350,000 for the week ending August 28, 2021?

If initial jobless claims are greater than 350,000 for the week ending on August 28, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Please see JOBS in the Rulebook for more details.

Economics

2021-09-01T23:00:00Z

no

null

KXJOBLESS

kalshi

KXNYKCOACH

Who will be the head next coach of New York Pro Men's Basketball?

If the next permanent head coach of New York Pro men's Basketball team is Micah Nori, then the market resolves to Yes.

Sports

2025-07-08T14:26:25.840287Z

no

null

KXNYKCOACH

kalshi

KXNONCOMPETEBAN

FTC non-compete ban overturned?

If the FTC's non-compete ban has been overturned by the courts or by Congress by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-10-28T20:28:08.06122Z

yes

null

KXNONCOMPETEBAN

kalshi

KXROMANIATOP

Will Nicușor Dan be 1st in the next Romanian presidential election first round?

If Nicușor Dan receives more votes than any other candidate in the next first round of the Romanian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Elections

2025-05-08T16:45:12.786768Z

no

null

KXROMANIATOP

kalshi

KXNEWROLEVOGUE

Who will be the next Editor-in-Chief of Vogue?

If Michael Sebastian is confirmed as the next Editor-in-Chief for Vogue before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Companies

2025-09-02T19:49:12.682153Z

no

null

KXNEWROLEVOGUE

kalshi

KXHALFTRIL

When will there be a half-trillionaire?

If there is a person with an estimated net worth of $500 billion or more before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. The Forbes billlionaire list will be checked at 10:00 AM ET daily.

Economics

2025-11-03T15:24:02.141006Z

yes

null

KXHALFTRIL

kalshi

KXGERCOALITION

Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP make up the next government of Germany?

If the CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP make up the next elected government of Germany, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-05-08T20:15:39.457949Z

no

null

KXGERCOALITION

kalshi

KXCANCOALITION

Will Liberal minority make up the next government of Canada?

If the Liberal minority make up the next elected government of Canada, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-05-27T16:25:47.882948Z

yes

null

KXCANCOALITION

kalshi

KXBTCETHATH

Will Ethereum hit an all-time high again before Bitcoin does?

If Ethereum hits an all-time high before Bitcoin, then the market resolves to Yes. The current ATH values are 73265.12 for Bitcoin, and 4848.91 for Ethereum. If neither hit an all-time high between May 2, 2024 and before Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to No. Only values quoted from weekdays the stock market is open will be used. The values for the cryptocurrencies are taken by taking an average of the five minutes of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) and Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI) before any given time, excluding the top 20% and bottom 20% of values.

Crypto

2024-11-15T14:44:51.992585Z

no

null

KXBTCETHATH

kalshi

KXDEBTSHRINK

Will the national debt shrink at any point during the Trump Administration?

If the U.S. federal debt below in any quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification 4/22/25 3:00 AM ET: The value for Q4 2024 is $36,218,605 (recorded in millions of dollars). To be clear, if the Federal Debt (Total Public Debt) is below this value ($36,218,605 million) in Q1, Q2, Q3, or Q4 of 2025, 2026, 2027, or 2028, then the market will resolve to Yes.

Politics

2025-06-04T18:57:44.353263Z

yes

null

KXDEBTSHRINK

kalshi

KXPENNYCONGRESS

Will the U.S. get rid of the penny?

If Congress passes a law that the penny will end before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-05-27T14:40:14.252112Z

yes

null

KXPENNYCONGRESS

kalshi

KXMTMCK

Will Trump rename Denali back to Mt. McKinley?

If Denali is renamed to Mt. McKinley before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-01-23T16:59:08.803738Z

yes

null

KXMTMCK

kalshi

KXEVCREDITS

Will Trump end the electric vehicle tax credit before Jan 20, 2029?

If the electric vehicle tax credit has been eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-07-07T19:52:47.944217Z

yes

null

KXEVCREDITS

kalshi

KXUSIL

Will Trump win his lawsuit against Illinois for its sancutary cities laws?

If the United States District Court for the Northern District of Illinois holds that any of Illinois' laws alleged by the Trump Administration violate the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-07-26T23:42:31.603794Z

no

null

KXUSIL

kalshi

KXDEVASANTRIX

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Devas in Devas v. Antrix Corp.

If the Supreme Court, in Devas v. Antrix Corp., rules in favor of petitioner, finding that plaintiffs must not prove minimum contacts before federal courts may assert personal jurisdiction over foreign states sued under the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of petitioner, finding that plaintiffs must not prove minimum contacts before federal courts may assert personal jurisdiction over foreign states sued under the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act., then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court finds the writ of certiorari for Devas v. Antrix Corp. to be improperly granted, then the market resolves to No. If the Supreme Court remands Devas v. Antrix Corp. to the lower courts without ruling as described above, then the market resolves to No.

Politics

2025-06-05T18:34:47.616357Z

yes

null

KXDEVASANTRIX

kalshi

KXCATHOLICWISCNOSIN

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Catholic Charities Bureau in Catholic Charities Bureau v. Wisconsin

If the Supreme Court, in Catholic Charities Bureau v. Wisconsin, rules in favor of petitioner, including by finding that a state violates the First Amendment's Religion Clauses by denying a religious organization an otherwise-available tax exemption because the organization does not meet the state's criteria for religious behavior, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of petitioner, including by finding that a state violates the First Amendment's Religion Clauses by denying a religious organization an otherwise-available tax exemption because the organization does not meet the state's criteria for religious behavior., then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court finds the writ of certiorari for Catholic Charities Bureau v. Wisconsin to be improperly granted, then the market resolves to No. If the Supreme Court remands Catholic Charities Bureau v. Wisconsin to the lower courts without ruling as described above, then the market resolves to No.

Politics

2025-06-05T18:35:00.145912Z

yes

null

KXCATHOLICWISCNOSIN

kalshi

KXBLOMHONICKMAN

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Blom Bank in Blom Bank SAL v. Honickman, et al.

If the Supreme Court, in Blom Bank SAL v. Honickman, et al., rules in favor of petitioner, finding that Rule 60(b)(6) relief was wrongly granted, including because Rule 60(b)(6)'s stringent standard applies to a post-judgment request to vacate for the purpose of filing an amended complaint, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of petitioner, finding that Rule 60(b)(6) relief was wrongly granted, including because Rule 60(b)(6)'s stringent standard applies to a post-judgment request to vacate for the purpose of filing an amended complaint (If the judgment dismissing the case with prejudice remains in place, and the plaintiffs are not allowed to amend their complaint post-judgment, the Contract will resolve Yes. Any ruling that reinstates the district court’s final judgment – for example, by holding the Second Circuit applied the wrong standard – will cause the Contract to resolve Yes. Even if the Court remands for further consideration under a stricter standard, that counts as Yes, since the extraordinary-relief grant is vacated.), then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court finds the writ of certiorari for Blom Bank SAL v. Honickman, et al. to be improperly granted, then the market resolves to No. If the Supreme Court remands Blom Bank SAL v. Honickman, et al. to the lower courts without ruling as described above, then the market resolves to No.

Politics

2025-06-05T17:02:04.630781Z

yes

null

KXBLOMHONICKMAN

kalshi

KXBECERRABRAIDWOOD

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of RFK and HHS in Becerra v. Braidwood Management

If the Supreme Court, in Becerra v. Braidwood Management, rules in favor of petitioner and finds that the court of appeals erred in holding that the structure of the Task Force violates the Appointments Clause, U.S. Const. Art. II, § 2, Cl. 2, and/or in declining to sever the statutory provision that it found to unduly insulate the Task Force from the HHS Secretary’s supervision, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of petitioner and finds that the court of appeals erred in holding that the structure of the Task Force violates the Appointments Clause, U.S. Const. Art. II, § 2, Cl. 2, and/or in declining to sever the statutory provision that it found to unduly insulate the Task Force from the HHS Secretary’s supervision (Any decision that reinstates coverage of USPSTF’s A/B recommendations as a federal requirement will resolve Yes), then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court finds the writ of certiorari for Becerra v. Braidwood Management to be improperly granted, then the market resolves to No. If the Supreme Court remands Becerra v. Braidwood Management to the lower courts without ruling as described above, then the market resolves to No.

Politics

2025-07-01T19:01:47.847522Z

yes

null

KXBECERRABRAIDWOOD

kalshi

KXBARNESFELIX

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Barnes in Barnes v. Felix

If the Supreme Court, in Barnes v. Felix, rules in favor of petitioner and rejects the “moment of the threat” doctrine when evaluating an excessive force claim under the Fourth Amendment, or otherwise favors the Petitioner’s position that all relevant circumstances must be considered, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of petitioner and rejects the “moment of the threat” doctrine when evaluating an excessive force claim under the Fourth Amendment, or otherwise favors the Petitioner’s position that all relevant circumstances must be considered, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court finds the writ of certiorari for Barnes v. Felix to be improperly granted, then the market resolves to No. If the Supreme Court remands Barnes v. Felix to the lower courts without ruling as described above, then the market resolves to No.

Politics

2025-05-20T18:35:01.765026Z

yes

null

KXBARNESFELIX

kalshi

KXAVGMEASLESDJT

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?

If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 50, then the market resolves to Yes.

Health

2025-03-12T17:03:57.278155Z

yes

null

KXAVGMEASLESDJT

kalshi

KXAMESOHIO

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Ames in Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services

If the Supreme Court, in Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services, rules in favor of petitioners and eliminates, or no longer requires, the “background circumstances” rule for majority-group plaintiffs, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of petitioners and eliminates, or no longer requires, the “background circumstances” rule for majority-group plaintiffs, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court finds the writ of certiorari for Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services to be improperly granted, then the market resolves to No. If the Supreme Court remands Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services to the lower courts without ruling as described above, then the market resolves to No.

Politics

2025-06-05T18:34:34.702772Z

yes

null

KXAMESOHIO

kalshi

KXAJTOSSEO

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of A.J.T. in A.J.T. v. Osseo Area Schools

If the Supreme Court, in A.J.T. v. Osseo Area Schools, rules in favor of petitioner, rejecting the heightened 'bad faith or gross misjudgment' standard for Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 and Rehabilitation Act of 1973 school cases, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of petitioner, rejecting the heightened 'bad faith or gross misjudgment' standard for Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 and Rehabilitation Act of 1973 school cases (Any decision that vacates or reverses the Eighth Circuit on this point counts – for example, a ruling that ordinary ADA/Rehabilitation Act standards apply in a manner contradictory to the Eighth Circuit’s ruling would resolve the contract to “Yes.”), then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court finds the writ of certiorari for A.J.T. v. Osseo Area Schools to be improperly granted, then the market resolves to No. If the Supreme Court remands A.J.T. v. Osseo Area Schools to the lower courts without ruling as described above, then the market resolves to No.

Politics

2025-06-12T16:08:18.617287Z

yes

null

KXAJTOSSEO

kalshi

KXADVOCATEBECERRA

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Advocate Christ Medical Center in Advocate Christ Medical Center v. Becerra

If the Supreme Court, in Advocate Christ Medical Center v. Becerra, rules in favor of petitioners’ interpretation that “entitled to…SSI benefits” includes all who meet SSI eligibility, whether or not they received an SSI payment., then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of petitioners’ interpretation that “entitled to…SSI benefits” includes all who meet SSI eligibility, whether or not they received an SSI payment., then the market resolves to Yes. If the Supreme Court finds the writ of certiorari for Advocate Christ Medical Center v. Becerra to be improperly granted, then the market resolves to No. If the Supreme Court remands Advocate Christ Medical Center v. Becerra to the lower courts without ruling as described above, then the market resolves to No.

Politics

2025-04-29T14:37:38.265542Z

yes

null

KXADVOCATEBECERRA

kalshi

KXGOOGLEUS

Will a court find that Google has illegally maintained a monopoly?

If District Court for the District of Columbia rules that Google has illegally maintained a monopoly, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2024-08-06T22:23:17.00758Z

yes

null

KXGOOGLEUS

kalshi

KXOPENAISUIT

Musk wins OpenAI lawsuit?

If Elon Musk wins any of his requested judgments from OpenAI in Superior Court of California for the County of San Francisco by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Companies

2024-06-12T20:07:57.847322Z

no

null

KXOPENAISUIT

kalshi

KXPCOIE

Will Perkins Coie win their lawsuit against Trump?

If U.S. District Court for the District of District of Columbia rules that President Trump's Executive Order targeting Perkins Coie is unconstitutional before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-05-03T14:49:39.561889Z

yes

null

KXPCOIE

kalshi

KXAPSUIT

Will the AP win their lawsuit against the White House?

If the United States District Court for the District of Columbia rules that the White House’s prohibition on the Associated Press’ access to the White House is unlawful before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-04-08T23:07:36.03854Z

yes

null

KXAPSUIT

kalshi

KXJAMESBOND

Will Paul King direct James Bond?

If Paul King is chosen to be the director of the 26th James Bond movie the market resolves to Yes.

Entertainment

2025-06-26T01:56:15.519407Z

no

null

KXJAMESBOND

kalshi

KXACTORZELDA

Who will be cast in The Legend Of Zelda?

If Tye Sheridan is cast as Link in The Legend Of Zelda before Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Entertainment

2025-07-16T13:39:10.534552Z

no

null

KXACTORZELDA

kalshi

KXIPOSPACEX

When will SpaceX IPO?

If SpaceX confirms an IPO before Sep 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Sep 1, 2025.

Economics

2025-09-01T03:59:00Z

no

null

KXIPOSPACEX

kalshi

KXIPOOPENAI

When will OpenAI IPO?

If OpenAI confirms an IPO before Sep 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Sep 1, 2025.

Economics

2025-09-01T03:59:00Z

no

null

KXIPOOPENAI

kalshi

KXIPOKLARNA

When will Klarna IPO?

If Klarna confirms an IPO before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after May 1, 2027.

Economics

2025-09-02T16:02:30.65813Z

yes

null

KXIPOKLARNA

kalshi

KXIPODISCORD

When will Discord IPO?

If Discord confirms an IPO before Nov 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Nov 1, 2025.

Economics

2025-11-01T03:59:00Z

no

null

KXIPODISCORD

kalshi

KXIPOBEASTINDUSTRIES

When will Beast Industries IPO?

If Beast Industries confirms an IPO before Sep 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Sep 1, 2025.

Economics

2025-09-01T03:59:00Z

no

null

KXIPOBEASTINDUSTRIES

kalshi

KXMEDIARELEASEUPONLY

Will A New Episode of the UpOnly Podcast be released in Worldwide before Nov 1, 2025?

If A New Episode of the UpOnly Podcast has been publicly released worldwide through official channels before Nov 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. The media must be made available to the general public through at least one official distribution channel, including theatrical release, streaming availability, physical media (DVD, Blu-ray), or authorized digital purchase/download. The release must be accessible without special invitations or industry credentials in at least one major metropolitan area if the geography refers to a country. Private screenings, film festivals, leaked content, and torrent availability do not qualify. Trailers and soundtracks do not satisfy the criterion unless the full media is released. Different versions or formats of the same base content (theatrical, director's cut, extended edition) are considered the same media if the core content is substantially identical. Foreign language titles are considered the same media unless otherwise specified.

Entertainment

2025-11-01T04:00:00Z

no

null

KXMEDIARELEASEUPONLY

kalshi

KXSNAPCUTS

How much will the Republican reconcilliation bill cut food stamps funding?

If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 cuts at least $400 billion from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-07-06T01:20:00Z

no

null

KXSNAPCUTS

kalshi

KXREMITTANCERATE

How much will the Republicans tax on remittances be in their reconciliation bill?

If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 sets a tax rate on foreign remittances of at least 7%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-07-06T01:20:00Z

no

null

KXREMITTANCERATE

kalshi

KXMEDICAIDCUTS

How much will the Republican reconcilliation bill cut Medicaid?

If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 cuts at least $800 billion from the Medicaid, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-07-08T21:44:19.08942Z

yes

null

KXMEDICAIDCUTS

kalshi

KXIRACUTS

How much will the Republican reconcilliation bill cut the Inflation Reduction Act's Energy, Production, and Manufacturing Credits?

If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 cuts at least $600 billion from the IRA's Subtitle D tax credits related to energy, production, and manufacturing, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-07-07T22:31:12.831662Z

no

null

KXIRACUTS

kalshi

KXINCOMERATE

What will Republicans set as the highest income tax rate in their reconciliation bill?

If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 sets a tax rate on ordinary income for the highest tax bracket (excluding surcharges) of at least 39.6, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-07-07T20:32:20.853571Z

no

null

KXINCOMERATE

kalshi

KXEDUCUTS

How much will the Republican reconcilliation bill cut education spending?

If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 cuts at least $5 billion from education spending, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-07-08T19:41:36.138307Z

yes

null

KXEDUCUTS

kalshi

KXWALLSPEND

How much will Republicans increase spending on a Mexican border wall in their reconcilliation bill?

If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 increases spending on a southern border wall by at least $50 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-07-16T15:19:44.731036Z

no

null

KXWALLSPEND

kalshi

KXUSTR

Will Jamieson Greer be confirmed as U.S. Trade Representative by Dec 31, 2026?

If Jamieson Greer is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be U.S. Trade Representative between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-02-26T17:58:35.237623Z

yes

null

KXUSTR

kalshi

KXUNAMB

Will Mike Waltz be confirmed as Ambassador to the United Nations by Dec 31, 2026?

If Mike Waltz is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Ambassador to the United Nations between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-09-22T02:49:17.13466Z

yes

null

KXUNAMB

kalshi

KXTOPSONGRECORDMANCHILD

How long will Manchild be #1?

If Manchild has had the #1 spot on the Billboard Hot 100 for more than 9 consecutive weeks, then the market resolves to Yes. **This market and these products have not been endorsed by Billboard. Any references to "Billboard", the "Hot 100," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Billboard and Kalshi.** If this event occurs, or the streak ends, the market will close the following 10am ET. This market specifically encompasses the first streak Manchild holds.

Entertainment

2025-06-24T17:15:13.025402Z

no

null

KXTOPSONGRECORDMANCHILD

kalshi

KXTIKTOKSCOTUS

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of TikTok?

If the Supreme Court rules that the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act is unconstitutional as applied to TikTok Inc. and ByteDance, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-01-17T15:19:40.180457Z

no

null

KXTIKTOKSCOTUS

kalshi

KXTIKTOKINJ

Will the Supreme Court grant TikTok's injunction against a ban?

If the Supreme Court of the United States enjoins the enforcement of the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act’s ban on TikTok from operating within the United States, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-01-17T15:19:59.275908Z

no

null

KXTIKTOKINJ

kalshi

KXSKRMETTI

Will the Supreme Court rule that banning gender-affirming surgery for minors is unconstitutional?

If the Supreme Court rules in US v. Skrmetti that Tennessee Bill 1 violates the Constitution, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-06-18T18:35:36.142679Z

no

null

KXSKRMETTI

kalshi

KXSECVA

Will Doug Collins be confirmed as Secretary of Veterans Affairs by Dec 31, 2026?

If Doug Collins is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Veterans Affairs between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-02-04T20:58:24.93571Z

yes

null

KXSECVA

kalshi

KXSECTREASURY

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Secretary of the Treasury by Dec 31, 2026?

If Kevin Warsh is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of the Treasury between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-01-28T03:32:46.492801Z

no

null

KXSECTREASURY

kalshi

KXSECTRANS

Will Sean Duffy be confirmed as Secretary of Transportation by Dec 31, 2026?

If Sean Duffy is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Transportation between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-01-29T22:39:38.347356Z

yes

null

KXSECTRANS

kalshi

KXSECSTATE

Will Robert O'Brien be confirmed as Secretary of State by Dec 31, 2026?

If Robert O'Brien is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of State between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-01-21T15:00:19.156043Z

no

null

KXSECSTATE

kalshi

KXSECLABOR

Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be confirmed as Secretary of Labor by Dec 31, 2026?

If Lori Chavez-DeRemer is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Labor between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-03-11T15:05:07.526807Z

yes

null

KXSECLABOR

kalshi

KXSECINT

Will Katharine MacGregor be confirmed as Secretary of the Interior by Dec 31, 2026?

If Katharine MacGregor is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of the Interior between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-01-31T14:57:09.36672Z

no

null

KXSECINT

kalshi

KXSECHUD

Will Scott Turner be confirmed as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development by Dec 31, 2026?

If Scott Turner is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Housing and Urban Development between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-02-05T20:19:50.270348Z

yes

null

KXSECHUD

kalshi

KXSECHOMELAND

Will Kristi Noem be confirmed as Secretary of Homeland Security by Dec 31, 2026?

If Kristi Noem is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Homeland Security between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-01-27T19:52:35.484396Z

yes

null

KXSECHOMELAND

kalshi

KXSECHHS

Will Joseph Ladapo be confirmed as Secretary of Health and Human Services by Dec 31, 2026?

If Joseph Ladapo is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Health and Human Services between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-02-13T17:45:47.505055Z

no

null

KXSECHHS

kalshi

KXSECENERGY

Will Mike Dunleavy be confirmed as Secretary of Energy by Dec 31, 2026?

If Mike Dunleavy is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Energy between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-02-04T14:35:11.559138Z

no

null

KXSECENERGY

kalshi

KXSECED

Will Linda McMahon be confirmed as Secretary of Education by Dec 31, 2026?

If Linda McMahon is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Education between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-03-03T23:47:19.008604Z

yes

null

KXSECED

kalshi

KXSECDEF

Will Mike Gallagher be confirmed as Secretary of Defense by Dec 31, 2026?

If Mike Gallagher is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Defense between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-01-25T05:39:04.042035Z

no

null

KXSECDEF

kalshi

KXSECCOM

Will Howard Lutnick be confirmed as Secretary of Commerce by Dec 31, 2026?

If Howard Lutnick is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Commerce between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-02-19T01:23:05.600114Z

yes

null

KXSECCOM

kalshi

KXSECCHAIR

Will Patrick Byrne be confirmed as SEC Chair by Dec 31, 2026?

If Patrick Byrne is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be SEC Chair between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-04-10T01:25:18.095758Z

no

null

KXSECCHAIR

kalshi

KXSECAGRO

Will Brooke Rollins be confirmed as Secretary of Agriculture by Dec 31, 2026?

If Brooke Rollins is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Secretary of Agriculture between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-02-15T15:19:08.725378Z

yes

null

KXSECAGRO

kalshi

KXSECAG

Will Pam Bondi be confirmed as Attorney General by Dec 31, 2026?

If Pam Bondi is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Attorney General between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-02-05T13:24:46.878651Z

yes

null

KXSECAG

kalshi

KXROMANIATOP2

Who will win the first round of the Romanian presidential election?

If Călin Georgescu win the first round of the Romanian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-05-19T01:29:12.897224Z

no

null

KXROMANIATOP2

kalshi

KXROMANIABAN

Will Călin Georgescu be banned from the Romanian presidential election?

If Călin Georgescu is banned from competing in the Romanian presidential election on the day of the next first round, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-05-04T20:55:44.417723Z

yes

null

KXROMANIABAN

kalshi

KXROLLINGLOUD

Will Yo Yo Honey Singh be part of the lineup for Rolling Loud India in 2027?

If Yo Yo Honey Singh is announced as part of the initial lineup of Rolling Loud India, then the market resolves to Yes.

Entertainment

2025-09-08T17:04:40.336441Z

no

null

KXROLLINGLOUD

kalshi

KXRECCOST

How much will the Republicans' reconciliation bill cost?

If the cost of the next budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 is at least $6 trillion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-07-07T20:00:15.066333Z

no

null

KXRECCOST

kalshi

KXQBIDEDUCT

What will the qualified business income (QBI) deduction be in the Republican reconciliation bill?

If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 sets the qualified business income (QBI) deudction to be at least 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-07-16T15:27:57.866212Z

yes

null

KXQBIDEDUCT

kalshi

KXPENNY

Will the U.S. get rid of the penny?

If the U.S. announces that the penny will end production before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that the penny will end is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the penny will continue production for some time.

Politics

2025-02-10T22:12:10.086657Z

yes

null

KXPENNY

kalshi

KXOSTP

Will Michael Kratsios be confirmed as OSTP Director by Dec 31, 2026?

If Michael Kratsios is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be OSTP Director between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-03-25T23:08:32.012474Z

yes

null

KXOSTP

kalshi

KXOMB

Will Russell Vought be confirmed as OMB Director by Dec 31, 2026?

If Russell Vought is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be OMB Director between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-02-07T19:52:58.29449Z

yes

null

KXOMB

kalshi

KXNYVOTING

Will the New York Court of Appeals rule in favor of allowing noncitizens to vote in municipal elections?

If the New York Court of Appeals has ruled on Fosella v. Adams and has ruled that New York’s municipal voter law is lawful before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-03-20T18:30:40.617929Z

no

null

KXNYVOTING

kalshi

KXNEXTCOACHOUTNBA

Who will be the next coach out in pro men's basketball?

If the head coach of Utah leaves (or announces they will leave) before any other head coach before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Interim/temporary coaches are not considered for the purposes of this market.

Sports

2025-11-15T16:23:34.210407Z

no

null

KXNEXTCOACHOUTNBA

kalshi

KXMOLDOVACOALITION

Will PN form the next government in Moldova?

If a coalition that includes PN is part of the next elected ruling government of Moldova before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government. This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances. Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description. Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.

Politics

2025-11-02T16:29:20.35301Z

no

null

KXMOLDOVACOALITION

kalshi

KXMEXAMB

Will Trump's Ambassador to Mexico be Kari Lake?

If Kari Lake is announced or appointed as the Ambassador to Mexico for President Trump, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2024-12-11T15:22:00Z

no

null

KXMEXAMB

kalshi

KXLEAVELECORNU

Will Sébastien Lecornu leave Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027?

If Sébastien Lecornu has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of France or has actually left as Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes upon either an official announcement of departure or actual departure from office. An announcement must be made by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the governing body of the office and reported by at least one Source Agency. Announcements of leaving more than one year from the statement do not resolve the market to Yes. Leaving office includes resignation, termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or term expiration without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining office do NOT qualify. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion. Forced departures satisfy the criterion even without prior announcement.

Politics

2025-10-13T16:01:04.878129Z

yes

null

KXLEAVELECORNU

kalshi

KXJUULFLAVOR

When will JUUL release Café Latte to the public?

If JUUL releases Café Latte to the public before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Companies

2025-07-19T18:32:41.147583Z

no

null

KXJUULFLAVOR

kalshi

KXISAMB

Will Mike Huckabee be confirmed as by Dec 31, 2026?

If Mike Huckabee is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Ambassador to Israel between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-04-09T20:47:23.109564Z

yes

null

KXISAMB

kalshi

KXGPTS

Will OpenAI release a model called GPT4.5 before one called GPT5?

If OpenAI releases a large language model called GPT4.5 before one called GPT5, before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If neither model is released before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to No.

Science and Technology

2025-02-27T20:38:23.471176Z

yes

null

KXGPTS

kalshi

KXGARLAND

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of 'ghost gun' regulation?

If the Supreme Court rules in favor of Garland in Garland v. VanDerStok, then the market resolves to Yes. Specifically, if the Supreme Court’s initial ruling in Garland v. VanDerStok holds: 1. That a weapon parts kit that is designed to or may readily be complete, assembled, restored or otherwise converted to expel a projectile by the action of an explosive is a “firearm” regulated by the Gun Control Act of 1968; and/or 2. a partially complete, disassembled, or nonfunctional frame or receiver that is designed to or may readily be completed, assembled, restored, or otherwise converted to function as a frame or receiver is a “frame or receiver” regulated by the same Act; then the market resolves to Yes. If the Court remands the case without doing either, then the market resolves to No.

Politics

2025-03-26T17:49:57.721599Z

yes

null

KXGARLAND

kalshi

KXFTC

Will Mark Meador be confirmed as FTC commissioner by Dec 31, 2026?

If Mark Meador is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be FTC commissioner between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-04-10T21:46:10.170011Z

yes

null

KXFTC

kalshi

KXFIRSTEPSTEINGTA

Will more Epstein files happen before GTA VI?

If the release of new Epstein files happens before the public release of GTA VI, then the market resolves to Yes. The documents must discuss Epstein in connection with the associate, rather than simply be about them -- e.g. releasing a document about Bill Gates' charitable foundation would not resolve the market to Yes, even if they were connected. The Payout Criterion requires "previously unreleased" documents. These must contain novel material not previously available to the public. Documents that are merely re-released, repackaged, or newly publicized versions of already available information do not qualify

Social

2025-08-26T02:21:11.838293Z

yes

null

KXFIRSTEPSTEINGTA

kalshi

KXFDVWLFI

Will World Liberty Financial FDV be above 15B at 10:00 AM ET on Jan 1, 2027?

If World Liberty Financial (WLFI)'s fully diluted valuation (FDV) as displayed on CoinGecko is above 15B at exactly 10:00 AM ET on the day after its launch, then the market resolves to Yes. The FDV must be the value shown in the "FDV" field on the coin's main CoinGecko page, not calculated from other metrics. If no data is available at the specified time, the last FDV value shown before that time on the date will be used. If the coin is delisted from CoinGecko before the measurement date, the last recorded FDV will be used and the market will resolve immediately. Token migrations to new smart contract addresses are tracked continuously. If CoinGecko changes its FDV calculation methodology, the value displayed at the measurement time under the FDV label will be used regardless. Post-redenomination FDV values (after splits/reverse splits) will be used. All values are in USD as shown on CoinGecko. Values can be expressed in millions (M), billions (B), or trillions (T) format.

Crypto

2025-09-11T08:30:28.195008Z

yes

null

KXFDVWLFI

kalshi

KXFDVPLASMA

Will Plasma FDV be above $6000000000 at 10:00 AM ET on Jan 1, 2027?

If Plasma (XPL)'s fully diluted valuation (FDV) as displayed on CoinGecko is above 6000000000 at exactly 10:00 AM ET on the day after its launch, then the market resolves to Yes. The FDV must be the value shown in the "FDV" field on the coin's main CoinGecko page, not calculated from other metrics. If no data is available at the specified time, the last FDV value shown before that time on the date will be used. If the coin is delisted from CoinGecko before the measurement date, the last recorded FDV will be used and the market will resolve immediately. Token migrations to new smart contract addresses are tracked continuously. If CoinGecko changes its FDV calculation methodology, the value displayed at the measurement time under the FDV label will be used regardless. Post-redenomination FDV values (after splits/reverse splits) will be used. All values are in USD as shown on CoinGecko. Values can be expressed in millions (M), billions (B), or trillions (T) format.

Crypto

2025-09-29T23:05:23.572095Z

yes

null

KXFDVPLASMA

kalshi

KXFDAVAPE

Will the Supreme Court rule against the FDA's flavored vape ban?

If the Supreme Court rules in FDA v. Wages and White Lion Investments that the FDA's rejection of plaintiff's flavored e-cigarette application was arbitrary and capricious, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-04-02T16:14:34.423932Z

no

null

KXFDAVAPE

kalshi

KXFDA

Will Marty Makary be confirmed as FDA Administrator by Dec 31, 2026?

If Marty Makary is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be FDA Administrator between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-03-27T14:16:05.225677Z

yes

null

KXFDA

kalshi

KXFBI

Will Andrew Bailey be confirmed as Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation by Dec 31, 2026?

If Andrew Bailey is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-02-20T19:25:41.890404Z

no

null

KXFBI

kalshi

KXEPA

Will Lee Zeldin be confirmed as EPA Administrator by Dec 31, 2026?

If Lee Zeldin is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be EPA Administrator between November 8, 2024 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-01-29T23:13:29.862261Z

yes

null

KXEPA

kalshi

KXENDOWMENTRATE

How much will Republicans increase the university endowment tax in their reconciliation bill?

If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 sets the tax rate for net investment income for universities to at least 7%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-07-07T20:33:04.425308Z

yes

null

KXENDOWMENTRATE

kalshi

KXDRAKEUMGSUIT

Will Drake win his lawsuit against UMG?

If UMG is held liable for any claim against Drake, then the market resolves to Yes. This market only concerns the initial judgement of the Southern District of New York. Appeals will not be considered.

Entertainment

2025-10-10T16:00:00Z

no

null

KXDRAKEUMGSUIT

kalshi

KXDNI

Will Robert O'Brien be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by Dec 31, 2026?

If Robert O'Brien is the first person confirmed by the Senate to be Director of National Intelligence between November 14, 2024 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-02-12T23:28:04.152493Z

no

null

KXDNI

kalshi

KXDEFENSESPEND

How much will Republicans increase defense spending in their reconcilliation bill?

If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 increases defense spending by at least $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-07-07T22:40:28.159627Z

no

null

KXDEFENSESPEND

kalshi

KXDEDUCT

What will the standard deduction be in the Republican reconciliation bill?

If the first budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 sets the standard deduction for married couples filing jointly to be at least $30 thousand, then the market resolves to Yes.

Politics

2025-07-07T20:39:53.107175Z

yes

null

KXDEDUCT

kalshi