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2 REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2022 Review of the Economy 2022 2 Contents List of Figures 6 List of Tables 7 List of Appendices 8 Abbreviations 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 15 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY 21 Global Overview 21 Advanced Economies and the Euro Zone 24 Emerging and Developing Asia 26 Latin America and the Caribbean 27 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF CARICOM STATES 31 Overview 31 Barbados 32 Jamaica 34 Guyana 36 ECCU/OECS 37 THE REAL ECONOMY 43 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 43 Overview 43 Quarterly GDP 45 Calendar 2022 Forecast 47 PETROLEUM 48 Overview 48 January to March 2022 48 EXPLORATION AND EXTRACTION 50 Exploration and Development Activity 50 3 TENACITY AND STABILITY IN THE FACE OF GLOBAL CHALLENGES Review of the Economy 2022 3 Drilling 54 Crude Oil and Condensate Extraction 56 Natural Gas Extraction 61 REFINING (incl. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 311 |
LNG) 66 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) 66 Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) 70 MANUFACTURE OF PETROCHEMICALS 71 AGRICULTURE 76 Overview 76 Domestic Agriculture 77 Export Agriculture 85 MANUFACTURING 85 CONSTRUCTION 89 TOURISM 90 INFLATION 94 PRODUCTIVITY 97 POPULATION 98 LABOUR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT 99 Unemployment 99 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS 107 INTRODUCTION 107 REVENUE 109 EXPENDITURE 114 FINANCING 120 GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT AND DEBT SERVICE 120 TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO CREDIT RATINGS 131 Moody’s Investors Service 131 Standard and Poor’s Global Ratings Services 134 4 REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2022 Review of the Economy 2022 4 Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) 135 REST OF THE NON-FINANCIAL PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS 137 Overview 137 Cash Operations 139 Current Transfers from Central Government 141 Capital Expenditure 142 Capital Transfers from Central Government 143 Overall Balance 144 THE MONETARY SECTOR 146 Monetary Conditions 146 Central Bank Operations 146 Exchange Rates/Foreign Exchange Market 146 Money Supply and Commercial Banks’ Deposits and Credits 148 Interest Rates 149 Liquidity 151 FINANCIAL SECTOR PERFORMANCE 152 Capital Market Activity 152 Trinidad and Tobago Securities and Exchange Commission 152 Equity Markets 154 Primary Debt Market Activity 155 Secondary Bond Market Activity 155 Mutual Funds Industry 156 REGULATORY DEVELOPMENTS 158 TRADE AND PAYMENTS 164 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 164 HERITAGE AND STABILISATION FUND 166 BALANCE OF VISIBLE TRADE 168 CARICOM TRADE 169 5 TENACITY AND STABILITY IN THE FACE OF GLOBAL CHALLENGES Review of the Economy 2022 5 TRADE POLICY DEVELOPMENTS 170 Combating Illicit Trade in Goods 170 Business Reform 171 TRADE AGREEMENTS 171 Partial Scope Agreements 171 CARICOM Trade Agreements 173 CARIFORUM-European Union Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) 173 CARIFORUM-UK Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) 174 6 REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2022 Review of the Economy 2022 6 List of Figures Figure 1: Real GDP Growth for Major Economic Regions 2018-2022 | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 784 |
GDP Growth for Major Economic Regions 2018-2022 ............................................................................ 22 Figure 2: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Major Economic Regions 2018-2022 ............................................................. 23 Figure 3: Growth Rates of Selected CARICOM Countries .............................................................................................. 32 Figure 4: ECCU Real GDP Growth ................................................................................................................................ 38 Figure 5: Tourist Arrivals ................................................................................................................................................ 39 Figure 6: Development and Exploratory Drilling ............................................................................................................ 56 Figure 7: Monthly Average Oil and Gas Prices ................................................................................................................ 61 Figure 8: Natural Gas Production and Utilisation ............................................................................................................ 63 Figure 9: Exports of LNG by Destination....................................................................................................................... 69 Figure 10: Production of NGLs (Propane, Butane and Natural Gasoline) ....................................................................... 71 Figure 11: Petrochemical Prices (Ammonia, Urea and Methanol) .................................................................................... 75 Figure 12: Composition of Food Crop Production (October to December 2021) ........................................................... 79 Figure 13: Inflation – Percentage Change (Year-on-Year) ............................................................................................... 95 Figure 14: Number of Persons Unemployed by Age Group | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 376 |
14: Number of Persons Unemployed by Age Group .......................................................................................... 102 Figure 15: Central Government Fiscal Operations ........................................................................................................ 108 Figure 16: Central Government Revenue ...................................................................................................................... 109 Figure 17: Central Government Expenditure ................................................................................................................ 115 Figure 18: Major Components of Current Expenditure ................................................................................................. 116 Figure 19: Components of Transfers and Subsidies ....................................................................................................... 119 Figure 20: Composition of Total General Government Debt ........................................................................................ 121 Figure 21: Composition of Adjusted General Government Debt .................................................................................. 122 Figure 22: Central Government Debt Service and Revenue........................................................................................... 128 Figure 23: General Government Debt and Debt Servicing ............................................................................................ 129 Figure 24: Currency Composition of Adjusted Central Government Debt Stock .......................................................... 130 Figure 25: Average Time to Maturity of Adjusted Central Government Debt Stock 2015-2022 .................................... 131 Figure 26: Performance Indicators of the Rest of the Non-Financial Public Sector ....................................................... 138 7 TENACITY AND STABILITY IN THE FACE OF GLOBAL CHALLENGES Review of the Economy 2022 7 Figure 27: Exchange Rates - | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 386 |
of the Economy 2022 7 Figure 27: Exchange Rates - Selling Rate (TT$ per US$) ............................................................................................... 148 Figure 28: Repo Rate and Prime Lending Rate .............................................................................................................. 150 Figure 29: Commercial Banks’ Weighted Average Deposit and Loan Spread ................................................................. 150 Figure 30: Liquidity Indicators ...................................................................................................................................... 152 Figure 31: Composition of Mutual Funds Industry ....................................................................................................... 157 List of Tables Table 1: Macroeconomic Indicators for Selected Economies 30 Table 2: Macroeconomic Indicators for Selected CARICOM Economies 42 Table 3: Economic Performance of Trinidad and Tobago’s Energy and Non-Energy Sectors 44 Table 4: Annual Average Oil and Gas Prices 60 Table 5: Domestic Production of Agricultural Products 78 Table 6: Air Arrivals, Cruise Vessels and Passenger Arrivals 91 Table 7: Labour Force and Unemployment by Age Group (Hundreds/'00) 103 Table 8: Labour Force and Unemployment by Gender (Hundreds/'00) 104 Table 9: Trinidad and Tobago Credit Rating History by Moody’s Investors Service: 2008 - 2021 133 Table 10: Trinidad and Tobago Credit Rating History by Standard and Poor’s Ratings Services: 2009 - 2022 135 Table 11: Trinidad and Tobago Credit Rating History by Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited: 2013 – 2021 136 Table 12: Commercial Banks and Non-Bank Financial Institutions Foreign Currency Sales and Purchases (US$ Million) 147 Table 13: Total TTSEC Registrants 153 Table 14: Trinidad and Tobago: Summary Balance of Payments (US$ Million) 167 8 REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2022 Review of the Economy 2022 8 List of Appendices Appendix 1 Gross Domestic Product of Trinidad and Tobago at | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 565 |
Gross Domestic Product of Trinidad and Tobago at Constant (2012) Market Prices /TT$ Millions/ 175 Appendix 2 Gross Domestic Product of Trinidad and Tobago at Constant (2012) Market Prices /Percentage Change/ 176 Appendix 3 Gross Domestic Product of Trinidad and Tobago at Constant (2012) Market Prices /Percentage Contribution/ 177 Appendix 4 Gross Domestic Product of Trinidad and Tobago at Market Prices (Current Prices) /TT$ Millions/ 178 Appendix 5 Gross Domestic Product of Trinidad and Tobago at Market Prices (Current Prices) /Percentage Change/ 179 Appendix 6 Gross Domestic Product of Trinidad and Tobago at Market Prices (Current Prices) /Percentage Contribution/ 180 Appendix 7 Development and Exploratory Drilling and Domestic Crude Production 181 Appendix 8 Natural Gas Production and Utilisation 182 Appendix 9 Liquefied Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids Production and Export and Refinery Throughput 183 Appendix 10 Petrochemical Production and Export /Tonnes ‘000/ 184 Appendix 11 Change in the Index of Retail Prices /Percentage Change/ 185 Appendix 12 Change in Productivity and Average Weekly Earnings /Percentage Change/ 186 Appendix 13 Population, Labour Force and Employment (Mid-year) 187 Appendix 14 Mid-year Estimates of Population by Age 188 Appendix 15 Labour Force by Industry and Employment Status (CSSP Estimates) /Hundreds (‘00)/ 189 Appendix 16 Exchange Rate for Selected Currencies 190 Appendix 17 Money Supply /TT$ Millions/ 191 Appendix 18 Commercial Banks’ Liquid Assets /TT$ Millions/ 192 Appendix 19 Commercial Banks’ Domestic Credit /TT$ Millions/ 193 Appendix 20 Commercial Banks’ Interest Rates 194 Appendix 21 Secondary Market Activities 195 Appendix 22 Central Government Fiscal Operations /TT$ Millions/ 196 Appendix 23 Central Government Revenue /TT$ Millions/ 197 Appendix 24 Central Government Expenditure and Net Lending /TT$ Millions/ 198 Appendix 25 Central Government Budget Financing /TT$ Millions/ 199 9 TENACITY AND STABILITY IN THE FACE OF GLOBAL CHALLENGES Review of the Economy 2022 9 | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 629 |
OF GLOBAL CHALLENGES Review of the Economy 2022 9 Appendix 26 General Government Debt and Debt Service /TT$ Millions/ 200 Appendix 27 Cash Statement of Operations for the Rest of the Non-Financial Public Sector /TT$ Millions/ 201 Appendix 28 Trinidad and Tobago - Net Foreign Reserves /US$ Millions/ 202 Appendix 29 Balance of Visible Trade /TT$ Millions/ 203 Appendix 30 Trade with CARICOM Countries /TT$ Millions/ 204 1 0 REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2022 Review of the Economy 2022 10 Abbreviations AATT Airports Authority of Trinidad and Tobago AEs Advanced Economies AGL Agostini Limited AHL Angostura Holdings Limited AITTF Anti-Illicit Trade Task Force AML/CFT/CPF Anti-Money Laundering, Combatting the Financing of Terrorism and Counter Proliferation Financing ARV Annual Rental Value ATI All Trinidad and Tobago Index Atlantic Atlantic LNG Company of Trinidad and Tobago ATM Average Time to Maturity AUM Assets Under Management BEPS Base Erosion and Profit Shifting BERT Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation BIR Board of Inland Revenue BOLT Build, Own, Lease and Transfer bp basis point BPTT BP Trinidad and Tobago BTU British Thermal Units CAF Corporación Andina De Fomento - Development Bank of Latin America CAL Caribbean Airlines Limited CARICOM Caribbean Community CariCRIS Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited CBB Central Bank of Barbados CBI Citizenship by Investment CBTT Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago CEBL Columbus Energy Bonasse Limited CFATF Caribbean Financial Action Task CGCL Caribbean Gas Chemical Limited CIS Collective Investment Scheme CLI Cross Listed Index CLICO Colonial Life Insurance Company Limited CNY Chinese Yuan Renminbi CPI (Stock Exchange) Composite Price Index CPI Consumer Price Index CreativeTT Trinidad and Tobago Creative Industries Company Limited CRH Churchill-Roosevelt Highway CSO Central Statistical Office DeNovo DeNovo Energy DESALCOTT Desalination Company of Trinidad and Tobago DPI Index of Domestic Production 1 1 TENACITY AND STABILITY IN THE FACE OF GLOBAL | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 565 |
1 1 TENACITY AND STABILITY IN THE FACE OF GLOBAL CHALLENGES Review of the Economy 2022 11 E&P Exploration and Production EBI Export Booster Initiative EC Eastern Caribbean ECCU Eastern Caribbean Currency Union ECMA East Coast Marine Area EFD Extended Field Development EFF Extended Fund Facility EIU Economist Intelligence Unit EMDEs Emerging Market and Developing Economies EMI Electronic Money Issuer EOG EOG Resources Trinidad Limited EPA Economic Partnership Agreement e TecK Evolving TecKnologies and Enterprise Development Company Limited EU European Union EUR Euros EXIM-TT Export Import Bank of Trinidad and Tobago FATCA Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act FCB First Citizens Bank Limited FCL Flexible Credit Line FDI Foreign Direct Investment Fitch Fitch Ratings FIUTT Financial Intelligence Unit of Trinidad and Tobago FOMC Federal Open Market Committee FREE Ukraine Financing of Recovery from Economic Emergency in Ukraine FRF Fiscal Responsibility Framework FUR Follow Up Report GATE Government Assistance for Tertiary Education GDP Gross Domestic Product GFA General Framework Agreement GML Guardian Media Limited GoRTT Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago GTL Gas-To-Liquids HDC Housing Development Corporation Heritage/HPCL Heritage Petroleum Company Limited HS Harmonized System HSF Heritage and Stabilisation Fund IA Insurance Act IAIS International Association of Insurance Supervisors IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICF International Certification Fund ICT Information and Communication Technology IDB Inter-American Development Bank IDF Infrastructure Development Fund IDR Issuer Default Rating 1 2 REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2022 Review of the Economy 2022 12 IGA Inter-Governmental Agreement ILO International Labour Organization IMF International Monetary Fund IPSC Incremental Production Service Contract ITC International Trade Centre KYC Know Your Client Lake Asphalt Lake Asphalt of Trinidad and Tobago (1978) Limited LEAs Law Enforcement Authorities LJWB LJ Williams Limited LNDW | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 494 |
Authorities LJWB LJ Williams Limited LNDW Large Natural Disaster Window LNG Liquefied Natural Gas LO/FO Lease Out/Farmout LRC Legislative Review Committee MALF Ministry of Agriculture, Land and Fisheries MEEI Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries MER Mutual Evaluation Report MFN Most Favored Nation MHTL Methanol Holdings (Trinidad) Limited ML/TF/PF Money Laundering, Terrorist Financing and Proliferation Financing mmBTU million British Thermal Units M1-A Narrow Money MoL Ministry of Labour MOLO medium octane, low octane Moody’s Moody’s Investors Service MOV Maintenance of Value MPC Monetary Policy Committee MTI Ministry of Trade and Industry M2 Broad Money MTS National Maintenance Training and Security Company Limited NAV Net Asset Value NCC National Carnival Commission NCMA North Coast Marine Area NFM National Flour Mills Limited NGC National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited NGLs Natural Gas Liquids NHNP National Highway Network Programme NHSL National Helicopter Services Limited NIDCO National Infrastructure Development Company Limited NIIP Net International Investment Position NIPDEC National Insurance and Property Development Company NLCB National Lotteries Control Board NPL Non-Performing Loan NPMC Trinidad and Tobago National Petroleum Marketing Company Limited NPOs Non-Profit Organisations 1 3 TENACITY AND STABILITY IN THE FACE OF GLOBAL CHALLENGES Review of the Economy 2022 13 NQCL National Quarries Company Limited NRA National Risk Assessment NRF Natural Resources Fund NRWRP National Reforestation and Watershed Rehabilitation Programme NSAI Netherland, Sewell and Associates Inc. OCM One Caribbean Media Limited OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OMO Open Market Operation OPEC+ Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allied countries Paria Paria Fuel Trading Company Limited PATT (State Enterprise) Port Authority of Trinidad and Tobago PATT Poultry Association of Trinidad and Tobago PCML Portfolio Credit Management Limited PEACE Public Expenditures for | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 506 |
Management Limited PEACE Public Expenditures for Administrative Capacity Endurance in Ukraine Perenco Perenco Trinidad and Tobago Petrotrin Petroleum Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited PLIPDECO Point Lisas Industrial Port Development Corporation Limited PLNL Point Lisas Nitrogen Limited PPGPL Phoenix Park Gas Processors Limited PPVS Pheonix Park Valve Station PSC Production Sharing Contract PSIP Public Sector Investment Programme PSSEP Public Sector Smart Energy Programme PSTA Partial Scope Trade Agreement PTSC Public Transport Service Corporation R/P Reserves to Production RBC Royal Bank of Canada RBL Republic Bank Limited RBTT Royal Bank of Trinidad and Tobago RCF Rapid Credit Facility RPI Retail Price Index RFI Rapid Financing Instrument S&P Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings SDR Special Drawing Rights SECC South East Coast Consortium SEZ Special Economic Zones SEZA Special Economic Zones Act Shell Shell Trinidad and Tobago Limited SKN St. Kitts and Nevis SLL Short-term Liquidity Line SME Small and Medium-sized Enterprises SPS Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures SVG St. Vincent and the Grenadines 1 4 REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2022 Review of the Economy 2022 14 SWAP Sector Wide Approach Programme SWMCOL Trinidad and Tobago Solid Waste Management Company Limited T&TEC Trinidad and Tobago Electricity Commission TBT Technical Barriers to Trade TCL Trinidad Cement Limited TIEAA Tax Information Exchange Agreements (United States of America) Act TNA Trinidad Northern Areas Touchstone Touchstone Exploration Trinidad Limited TRHA Tobago Regional Health Authority TRINGEN Trinidad Nitrogen Company Limited Trinity Trinity Exploration and Production Limited TROC Trinidad Onshore Compression TRR Technically Recoverable Resources TSTT Telecommunications Service of Trinidad and Tobago TTD Trinidad and Tobago Dollars TTMA Trinidad and Tobago Manufacturers’ Association TTMF Trinidad and Tobago Mortgage Finance Company Limited TTNGL Trinidad and Tobago NGL Limited TTSE Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange TTSEC Trinidad and Tobago | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 524 |
Tobago Stock Exchange TTSEC Trinidad and Tobago Securities and Exchange Commission UAN Urea Ammonium Nitrate UCL Unilever Caribbean Limited UDeCOTT Urban Development Corporation of Trinidad and Tobago Limited UK United Kingdom UN United Nations USA United States of America USD United States Dollars UTC Trinidad and Tobago Unit Trust Corporation VAT Value Added Tax VRF Valuation Return Form VMCOTT Vehicle Management Corporation of Trinidad and Tobago Limited WADR Weighted Average Deposit Rate WALR Weighted Average Lending Rate WASA Water and Sewerage Authority WB World Bank WEO World Economic Outlook WITCO West Indian Tobacco Company Limited WTI West Texas Intermediate WTTX Wireless to the "X" 1 5 TENACITY AND STABILITY IN THE FACE OF GLOBAL CHALLENGES Review of the Economy 2022 15 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The tentative post-pandemic recovery was derailed in 2022 as the global economy was confronted by a rare convergence of misfortunes, triggered largely by the unprecedented war in Ukraine which has escalated into a costly humanitarian crisis. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 268 |
Following a sharp rebound in global growth of 6.1 percent in 2021, growth is estimated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to slow to 3.2 percent in 2022, consequent to a more uncertain outlook which the IMF has characterized as overly tilted to the downside.
According to the IMF, Emerging and Developing Europe will be the weakest performing economy for 2022, contracting by 1.6 percent largely on account of a deep economic decline in Russia (-6.0 percent). | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 126 |
Growth in Advanced Economies will decelerate to 2.5 percent in 2022 from 5.2 percent in 2021 due to lower growth in the United Kingdom, Euro Area and the United States.
Latin America and the Caribbean is forecast to record lower growth of 3.0 percent (from 6.9 percent in 2021), due to challenges stemming from tightening global financial conditions and social tensions due to energy and food insecurities, which further threaten growth prospects. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 116 |
Growth in Emerging and Developing Asia is estimated at 4.6 percent.
Domestically, the Ministry of Finance estimates that real economic activity in Trinidad and Tobago will grow by 2.0 percent in 2022, following a contraction of 1.0 percent in 2021.
According to the latest available quarterly GDP data from the Central Statistical Office (CSO), Trinidad and Tobago recorded a marginal contraction of 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2022. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 124 |
The flat outturn was supported by growth of 2.2 percent in the Non-Energy Sector, offset by a decline of 5.1 percent in the Energy Sector.
Preliminary indications for the second quarter of calendar 2022 however point to moderately positive growth, bolstered by strong performance in the Non-Energy Sector.
This was however muted by the underperformance of the Energy Sector in the second quarter. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 101 |
Nevertheless, based on the continued recovery of the Energy-Sector and better prospects for Energy Sector activity for the remainder of the year; the Ministry of Finance is anticipating overall positive growth for 2022.
In 2022, oil and gas prices have spiked, with natural gas prices reaching highs last seen in 2008.
As at mid-September 2022, average natural gas prices were more than 91 percent higher than prices for the same period of 2021. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 118 |
Moreover, average crude oil prices rose by more that 55 percent during the year.
Increased demand for gas for use in cooling systems, amid increasingly scorching temperatures in some countries, coupled with relatively low inventory levels, has placed upward pressure on natural gas prices.
Gas prices have also been inflated due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has resulted in reduced European usage of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 99 |
The surge in crude oil prices was primarily attributed to a rise in demand 1 6 REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2022 Review of the Economy 2022 16 as economies emerged from pandemic lockdowns, as well as fall out from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Persistent demand for fossil fuels, given ongoing challenges with the global energy transition, has also placed upward pressure on oil prices.
These international developments are expected to positively impact Nominal GDP and Government earnings in Trinidad and Tobago. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 123 |
The Central Statistical Office has estimated Nominal GDP at Purchaser Prices at $165,315.0 million in calendar 2021; a positive development when compared to the Ministry of Finance expectations as at the time of the Budget 2022.
The Ministry therefore now forecasts Nominal GDP to rise to $190,770.8 million in calendar 2022 or $184,406.9 million in fiscal year terms. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 113 |
The period average Headline inflation rate, as measured by the year-on-year rate of change in the All Items Retail Price Index (RPI) for the period, rose from 3.8 percent in January 2022, to 4.7 percent in the seven-month period to July 2022.
This was due to stronger pricing pressures within both the food and core components of the RPI. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 94 |
The productivity of all workers in all industries in Trinidad and Tobago further expanded by 33.7 percent during the first quarter of fiscal 2022, from a gain of 22.1 percent during the comparative period one year earlier.
This was underpinned by improvements in productivity in five (5) industries, namely, Assembly Type and Related Products; Drink and Tobacco; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Exploration and Production of Oil and Natural Gas; and Natural Gas Refining. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 109 |
Trinidad and Tobago’s mid-year estimates of population contracted by 0.1 percent from 1,367,558 persons in 2021 to 1,365,805 persons in 2022.
The provisional estimate is consequent to the incidence of COVID-19 related deaths during the twelve-month period July 2021 to June 2022, coupled with normally occurring deaths and declining births.
The provisional death rate per thousand persons is accordingly estimated to increase from 9.8 in 2021 to 13.4 in 2022. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 151 |
In contrast, the country's provisional birth rate per thousand persons is estimated to decrease marginally from 10.4 to 10.3.
Following a surge in quarterly unemployment rates in the first half of fiscal 2021, the rate of joblessness eased over the subsequent four quarters (April 2021 to March 2022). | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 85 |
This can be attributed to the gradual removal of restrictions previously implemented to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 virus, the reopening of the country’s borders and ultimately the full resumption of most domestic economic activities.
The rate of unemployment stood at 5.1 percent during the first quarter of calendar 2022. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 73 |
The 2022 budgeted revenue of $43,333.1 million (27.7 percent of GDP) was based on an oil price of US$65.00 per barrel and a natural gas price of US$3.75 per million of British thermal units (mmBtu).
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 7 TENACITY AND STABILITY IN THE FACE OF GLOBAL CHALLENGES Review of the Economy 2022 17 Expenditure was estimated at $52,428.9 million and Central Government Operations was expected to result in an estimated deficit of $9,095.8 million or 5.8 percent of GDP. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 163 |
Energy prices however continued to rally at elevated levels during fiscal 2022 and as a result, revenues were recalibrated at the time of the Mid-Year Budget at an estimated oil price of US$95.00 per barrel and a natural gas price of US$5.00 per mmBtu for the remainder of fiscal 2022 (June to September, 2022).
Total Revenue and Grants was then estimated at $47,458.8 million, while Total Expenditure was increased to $55,189.4 million. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 134 |
Central Government Operations was therefore expected to yield a deficit of $7,730.6 million, or 4.2 percent of GDP.
Since the Mid-Year Review, with more recent data coming to hand, Total Revenue and Grants is now expected to amount to $51,641.1 million, or 28.0 percent of GDP for fiscal 2022 based on Revised Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 104 |
Total Expenditure is also now anticipated to be $54,074.1 million, or 29.3 percent of GDP and Central Government operations are now expected to realize an Overall Deficit of $2,433.0 million, or 1.3 percent of GDP.
Total General Government Debt moved from $137,377.5 million in fiscal 2021 to $139,421.6 million in fiscal 2022.
This figure comprises Adjusted General Government Debt ($129,745.3 million) plus borrowings for Open Market Operations (OMOs) at $9,676.3 million. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 160 |
Total General Government Debt is anticipated to decrease by 0.5 percent from $141,100.6 million in calendar 2021 to $140,398.6 million at the end of calendar 2022.
It is anticipated that the Adjusted General Government Debt, which comprises Central Government Domestic Debt, Central Government External Debt and Non-Self Serviced Government Guaranteed Debt, will increase by 2.3 percent from $126,807.2 million in fiscal 2021 to $129,745.3 million by the end of fiscal 2022. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 151 |
Adjusted General Government Debt as a percentage of GDP is estimated to decrease to 70.4 percent at the end of fiscal 2022 from 79.5 percent at the end of fiscal 2021.
Adjusted General Government Debt is expected to decrease by $74.0 million or 0.1 percent from $130,796.3 million in calendar 2021 to $130,722.3 by the end of calendar 2022. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 118 |
Adjusted General Government Debt as a percentage of GDP is anticipated to decrease to 68.5 percent by the end of calendar 2022 from 79.1 percent at the end of calendar 2021.
Central Government Domestic Debt is projected to rise by 2.6 percent from $64,468.3 million in fiscal 2021 to $66,165.1 million in fiscal 2022.
Central Government External Debt is projected to rise by 2.9 percent from $31,167.3 million in fiscal 2021 to $32,070.9 million in fiscal 2022. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 164 |
Central Government Domestic Debt is anticipated to decrease by $1,313.3 million or 1.9 percent from $67,478.1 in calendar 2021 to $66,165.1 million at the end of calendar 2022.
Central Government External Debt is estimated to decrease by 0.9 percent from $32,349.8 million in calendar 2021 to $32,070.9 million by the end of calendar 2022. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 124 |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 8 REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2022 Review of the Economy 2022 18 Total Central Government Debt Service is expected to decrease by 4.9 percent or $493.9 million, from $10,116.2 million in fiscal 2021 to $9,622.3 million in fiscal 2022; $5,740.7 million being principal repayments and $3,881.6 million, interest payments. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 127 |
Over the period October 2021 to June 2022, the fiscal operations of the Rest of the Non-Financial Public Sector strengthened significantly, resulting in an Operating Surplus of $1,434.6 million, in comparison to the operating deficit of $2,479.2 million recorded for the same period of fiscal 2021.
The 2022 performance comprised an Operating Surplus of $3,507.7 million from State Enterprises, which was partially offset by an Operating Deficit of $2,073.1 million from Public Utilities. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 140 |
Current Transfers to the Rest of the Non-Financial Public Sector from Central Government increased by 78.6 percent to $3,065.4 million as at June 2022, compared to $1,716.5 million reported as at June 2021.
The higher Current Transfers to State Enterprises and Public Utilities were mainly for interest payments on loans, deficit/operational financing and subsidy payments for the sale of petrol. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 106 |
On the other hand, Capital Transfers from Central Government contracted by $50.8 million over the first three quarters of fiscal 2022 to $2,132.9 million, primarily on account of reduced transfers for capital spending to Public Utilities; namely the Water and Sewerage Authority (WASA) and Airports Authority of Trinidad and Tobago (AATT). | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 87 |
After covering Other Operational Costs and Capital Expenditure which rose by 64.0 percent, the Overall Balance of the Rest of the Non-Financial Public Sector nevertheless improved substantially from a surplus of $881.2 million during October 2020 to June 2021, to a surplus of $1,663.8 million in the corresponding period of fiscal 2022.
Trinidad and Tobago is currently assigned ratings of investment grade by S&P (BBB-/A-3) and non- investment grade by Moody’s (Ba1 and Ba2). | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 142 |
CariCRIS has not yet issued its 2022 rating for Trinidad and Tobago.
Therefore, the 2021 investment-grade rating of CariAA holds.
In July 2022, S&P revised Trinidad and Tobago’s outlook to stable from negative.
This was the first positive action on Trinidad and Tobago’s rating taken by S&P over the last fifteen (15) years.
Moody’s, and CariCRIS also view Trinidad and Tobago’s outlook as ‘Stable’. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 137 |
Sales of foreign exchange by authorised dealers to the public amounted to US$5,661.1 million, 35.9 percent higher than the amount sold (US$4,165.9 million) over the period October 2020 to August 2021.
Purchases by authorised dealers of foreign exchange from the public (except the Central Bank) amounted to US$4,716.2 million which was 51.3 percent higher than the US$3,117.9 million purchased in the same period a year earlier. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 131 |
Purchases from the Central Bank amounted to US$1,150.0 million over the eleven-month period, 1.2 percent lower than the amount sold (US$1,164.3 million) over the comparative period one year prior.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 9 TENACITY AND STABILITY IN THE FACE OF GLOBAL CHALLENGES Review of the Economy 2022 19 The weighted average TT/US dollar selling rate for August 2022 stood at US$1.00 = TT$6.7798, a marginal 0.05 percent appreciation from US$1.00 = TT$6.7833 in October 2021 (Appendix 16 and Figure 24). | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 185 |
Likewise, the TT dollar appreciated by 3.2 percent against the Canadian dollar, by 13.0 percent against the UK pound, and by 12.9 percent against the Euro over the period October 2021 to August 2022.
As the economy recovered from the effects of the pandemic, monetary aggregates decreased before rebounding towards the end of the first half of 2022. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 96 |
Though the amount of cash in circulation remained strong, Narrow Money (M1-A) was adversely impacted by the decline in demand deposits which occurred as the economy reopened and businesses and consumers drew down deposits.
Likewise, Broad Money (M2) declined toward the end of 2021 and into early 2022, but rebounded in June 2022.
Commercial bank credit to the private sector grew in tandem with increased business activity subsequent to the reopening of the economy in March 2022. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 125 |
Trinidad and Tobago’s stock market registered subdued performances during the nine-month period ending June 2022.
The Composite Price Index (CPI) marginally declined by 1.5 percent to 1,381.6 in June 2022 from 1,402.6 one year earlier (Appendix 21).
The market weakening was spurred by a year-on-year decrease of 18.9 percent in the Cross Listed Index (CLI), reflective of challenging market conditions in regional markets, despite the 5.6 percent increase in the All Trinidad and Tobago Index (ATI). | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 152 |
During the period October 2021 to June 2022, 4 private placements valued at $3,437.8 million were issued on the primary debt market.
This compares to 21 placements valued at $13,181.0 million, during the same period one year prior.
Trading activity on the secondary government bond market was subdued in the first nine months of fiscal 2022, as only 3 trades at a face value of $1.9 million were executed. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 120 |
This represents a significant reduction from the 23 trades valued at $103.3 million during the corresponding period of fiscal 2021.
Contrastingly, the corporate bond market recorded 248 trades valued at $107.5 million in the same review period; up from the 117 trades at $39.5 million in the previous financial year.
Over the first nine months of fiscal 2022, activity in the mutual funds industry slowed. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 111 |
Aggregate funds under management decreased by 1.6 percent to $51,996.4 million compared to a 6.1 percent increase in the same period one year prior.
The restrained performance was attributable to declines in Fixed Income funds of 5.0 percent to $28,537.2 million, ‘Other funds’ of 1.9 percent to $455.8 million, and Equity funds of 0.6 percent to $8,555.9 million. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 118 |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 0 REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2022 Review of the Economy 2022 20 For calendar year 2021, Trinidad and Tobago’s Balance of Payments registered a deficit of US$74.2 million, which was significantly smaller than the pre-COVID-19 deficit of US$646.1 million logged in 2019, but a reversal nonetheless from the overall surplus of US$24.8 million recorded in 2020.
Despite this deficit, the Current Account recorded a strong surplus, on account of high energy exports earnings. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 156 |
Contributing to the overall deficit, however, was a net outflow of US$1,630.9 million in the Financial Account.
As at August 2022, Trinidad and Tobago’s Gross Official Reserves stood at US$6,807.0 million or 8.5 months of prospective import cover; down from US$6,879.6 million, but up from 8.4 months of prospective import cover at the end of December 2021. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 116 |
The reduction largely stemmed from outflows, mainly Central Bank interventions in the domestic foreign exchange market, which outpaced the level of foreign exchange inflows over the period.
As at August 12, 2022 the Net Asset Value (NAV) of the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund (HSF) stood at US$5,029.6million, a reduction of US$434.3 million compared to the September 2021 position of US$5,463.9 million. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 119 |
The NAV of the HSF has been fluctuating during the year due to elevated market volatility and an increase in investor uncertainty.
The Fund was however boosted by an estimated $1.1 billion injection on September 23, 2022. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 60 |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 1 TENACITY AND STABILITY IN THE FACE OF GLOBAL CHALLENGES Review of the Economy 2022 21 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY1 Global Overview Advanced Economies and the Euro Zone Emerging and Developing Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Global Overview The tentative post-pandemic recovery was derailed in 2022 as the global economy was confronted by a rare ‘confluence of calamities’2, triggered largely by the unprecedented war in Ukraine which has escalated into a costly humanitarian crisis. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 147 |
Global output faltered significantly, as the world’s three largest economies, the United States, China, and the Euro Zone stalled, with dire consequences for the global outlook.
Beleaguered by geopolitical tensions, embattled trade routes, food and energy insecurities and volatile financial markets, the global economic order in 2022 finds itself at a daunting crossroads. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 90 |
Consequently, as at July 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated global growth to be at 3.2 percent in 2022, down from 6.1 percent in 2021 (Figure 1).
This was a further downward revision from its October 2021 and April 2022 projections.
In 2023, global growth is forecast to be lower (2.9 percent) as risks to the outlook remain highly skewed to the downside. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 121 |
Similarly, the World Bank (WB) has estimated decelerated growth from 5.7 percent in 2021 to 2.9 percent in 2022 followed by an average of 3.0 percent in 2023, amid lingering supply and demand imbalances, COVID-19 resurgences and waning policy support.
1 IMF World Economic Outlook July 2022; Fiscal Monitor April 2022; IMF Country Reports; the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) country reports; WB Global Economic Prospects June 2022. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 139 |
2 IMF says global economy faces ‘confluence of calamities’ in biggest test since World War I, May 23, 2022.
2 2 REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2022 Review of the Economy 2022 22 Figure 1: Real GDP Growth for Major Economic Regions 2018-2022 Source: The IMF’s World Economic Outlook, July 2022 Growth in major Advanced Economies in 2022 and 2023 is anticipated to be generally muted. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 136 |
The IMF estimates that growth in the Euro Zone is also likely to be constrained in 2022 due to weaker economic activity in France, Germany, and Spain, as a result of the spill-over effects from the war in Ukraine.
The IMF also assumes tighter financial conditions, with the European Central Bank discontinuing net asset purchases as of July 1, 2022 and raising policy rates for the first time since 2011. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 102 |
In Emerging and Developing Asia, the estimated sharp slowdown in China’s economy will negatively impact the region, while growth for 2022 in Latin America and the Caribbean is estimated to be stronger than previously projected as a result of a more robust recovery in large economies such as Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and Chile.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has compounded supply chain disruptions in critical sectors, including agriculture, automotive, energy and food. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 107 |
The conflict in Ukraine has also contributed to product-line closures, transport delays and spiralling input costs.
These issues have, in turn, contributed to a challenging mix of rising prices and decelerating economic growth, a phenomenon resonant of the 1970s era of stagflation. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 65 |
In Europe, after several years of relative price stability, extreme weather events ravaged harvests, while the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, idled its once-hectic Black Sea ports and laid waste its once-fertile fields. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 50 |
With both countries accounting for a quarter of global exports of wheat, a fifth of barley and maize and more than half of sunflower oil, the Russia/Ukraine conflict has significantly contributed to burgeoning global -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Percentage (%) Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Global THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY 2 3 TENACITY AND STABILITY IN THE FACE OF GLOBAL CHALLENGES Review of the Economy 2022 23 food prices. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 180 |
In May 2022, the United Nations (UN) warned that the coming months threaten ‘the spectre of global food shortages’3 that could last for years.
Beyond food output and sluggish supply, the conflict has also had negative spill-over effects on fertilisers, as both countries are also large manufacturers of potash-based crop nutrients.
Additionally, prices for natural gas, a key input to fertiliser manufacture, have soared due to the war. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 112 |
This confluence of factors is expected to keep food prices well-elevated in the next year.
Broadening price pressures in 2022 have led to end of year inflation estimates of 5.9 percent in Advanced Economies from 5.2 percent in 2021, 4.0 percent in Emerging and Developing Asia from 3.0 percent in 2021 and 12.1 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean from 11.6 percent in 2021 (Figure 2). | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 121 |
Figure 2: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Major Economic Regions 2018-2022 Source: The IMF’s World Economic Outlook, July 2022 Amid the threat of deteriorating global economic conditions, the IMF, as at the end of July 2022, has allocated a total of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) 660.7 billion (equivalent to about US$943.0 billion) to boost global liquidity. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 113 |
This included the largest-ever allocation of about SDR 456.0 billion approved in August 2021 to help meet urgent financing needs and alleviate the economic fallout of the catastrophic humanitarian crises worldwide.
Subsequently, in April 2022, the IMF approved the establishment of an Administered Account for Ukraine in a 3 Secretary-General's remarks to the Global Food Security Call to Action Ministerial, May 18, 2022. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 111 |
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Percent (%) World Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Asia Latin America and the Caribbean THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY 2 4 REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2022 Review of the Economy 2022 24 response to several member countries’ requests to provide donors with a secure vehicle to enable direct financial assistance to Ukraine. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 125 |
Concurrently, in March 2022, the WB approved a supplemental budget support package of $489 million for Ukraine, called Financing of Recovery from Economic Emergency in Ukraine (FREE Ukraine).
This package comprised a supplemental loan for $350 million and guarantees in the amount of $139 million.
The WB also mobilized grant financing of $134 million and parallel financing of $100 million, resulting in total mobilised support of $723 million. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 115 |
Subsequently, in June 2022, the WB approved $1.49 billion of additional financing for Ukraine under the Public Expenditures for Administrative Capacity Endurance in Ukraine (PEACE) Project, part of a total support package of nearly $13.0 billion in emergency financing.
As at the end of July 2022, the World Bank had disbursed more than $6.3 billion of this financing. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 99 |
Advanced Economies and the Euro Zone In 2022 and 2023 Advanced Economies and the Euro Zone, notably European economies, are facing three simultaneous headwinds: escalating inflation; slowing external demand; and spill-over effects from the crisis in Ukraine.
Of critical concern is the curtailment of supplies of Russian natural gas which is now down roughly 60.0 percent as compared to June 2021. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 99 |
As of early July 2022, Russian gas deliveries to Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, Denmark, and the Netherlands have already been disrupted while supplies to Germany, Italy, France and others have been reduced.
The United States’ economy has recovered rapidly from the pandemic due largely to a sizable policy stimulus; the American Rescue Plan which totalled US$1.9 trillion. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 86 |
Unemployment has returned to end-2019 levels and the fiscal deficit is now declining rapidly; public debt however still surpasses its pre-pandemic levels and is anticipated to continue to rise as a share of GDP over the medium-term. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 57 |
On September 21, 2022, in a bid to subdue inflation and withdraw from monetary accommodation, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 72 |
Against this policy rate backdrop, the U.S. economy is expected to decelerate in 2022/2023; narrowly escaping recession, with growth slowing to 2.3 percent in 2022 and 1.0 percent in 2023, from 5.7 percent in 2021.
The chief downside risk is sudden monetary tightening which may stem from an intensification of the Ukraine war, continued shutdowns in China, a rapid upswing in inflation, or an acceleration in nominal wages. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 128 |
THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY 2 5 TENACITY AND STABILITY IN THE FACE OF GLOBAL CHALLENGES Review of the Economy 2022 25 Likewise, spurred by robust policy support, well-executed vaccination campaigns and rising consumption, the Japanese economy is projected to maintain growth of 1.7 percent, similar to the previous year and following a contraction of 4.5 percent in 2020. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 105 |
While Japan has weathered the pandemic well in comparison to other advanced economies, its habitual COVID-19 containment measures have contributed to a deceleration of the much-anticipated recovery.
In addition, given Japan’s close trade ties with China, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China poses downside risk to external demand. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 77 |
In Europe’s largest economy, Germany, a nascent recovery in late 2021 and early 2022 was subsequently eclipsed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, unleashing new headwinds just when automobile production and services activity were on the rebound. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 62 |
A confluence of curtailment of gas flows from Russia, higher energy prices, lack of key intermediate inputs, weaker external demand and confidence, along with tighter financial conditions will all contribute to projected weaker growth of 1.2 percent in 2022 and 0.8 percent in 2023; down from 2.9 percent in 2021. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 84 |
Further, surging energy costs are reducing the current account surplus and fuelling price pressures, with end of period inflation registering 5.7 percent and 8.0 percent in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
Uncertainty remains high, with a clear and present danger of a persistent shut-off of the Russian gas exports to Europe.
In the United Kingdom (UK)4, the rise in wholesale gas prices and retail energy prices have intensified inflationary pressures and have led to a deterioration in the economic outlook. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 125 |
Whilst the IMF had earlier expected a slowing of growth in the UK economy to 3.2 percent in 2022 from 7.4 percent in 2021, the Bank of England in its August 2022 Monetary Policy Report, has projected that the UK economy will enter into a recession in the final quarter of 2022.
In June 2022, the UK’s CPI rose by 9.4 percent, the highest inflation rate in decades.
For calendar 2022, inflation in the UK was expected by the IMF to rise to 9.5 percent, up from 5.4 percent in 2021. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 156 |
Notwithstanding, unemployment was expected to remain contained at 4.2 percent, down slightly from its 2021 level of 4.5 percent, reflecting continued tightness in the labour market.
In its July 2022 update, the IMF also projected that the UK’s fiscal deficit would nearly halve to 4.3 percent in 2022, from 8.0 percent in 2021.
In Singapore, deft containment measures coupled with pragmatic policy support spurred an impressive recovery. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 123 |
In 2021, real GDP growth reached 7.6 percent, exceeding pre-COVID levels and making Singapore one of the top performing advanced economies.
The recovery has however, been uneven, as exemplified by activity in tourism-related, consumer-facing and construction sectors remaining below pre-pandemic levels.
In 2022, growth is projected to remain above potential in the near term at 3.7 percent, bolstered mainly by extensive 4 Bank of England, Monetary Policy Report, August 2022; IMF WEO July 2022. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 137 |
THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY 2 6 REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2022 Review of the Economy 2022 26 vaccinations and the release of pent-up demand as the economy reopens.
Headline inflation is, however, projected to rise to 4.8 percent in 2022, before moderating to 2.3 percent.
Emerging and Developing Asia5 For Emerging and Developing Asia, a projected downturn in growth of 4.6 and 5.0 percent in 2022 and 2023, respectively, from 7.3 percent in 2021, reflects mainly decelerations of the Chinese and Indian economies. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 166 |
Also weighing heavily on growth will be the ramifications of the war in Ukraine specifically, increased trade policy uncertainty and stressed supply chains in a region once hailed for its spectacular growth.
Together with weakening growth, inflationary pressures are rising above central bank targets, driven by a global surge in food and fuel costs.
In China, a zero-COVID strategy accompanied by strict lockdowns have subdued economic activity in various regions. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 96 |
Consequently, real GDP is expected to slow substantially from 8.1 percent in 2021 to 3.3 percent in 2022, the slowest in over four decades.
The slowdown in China will have negative repercussions for the global economy, as Shanghai, for example, one of the affected cities, is a major global supply chain hub.
Further, the crisis engulfing China’s property sector will negatively impact growth, with global implications for the country’s trading partners. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 117 |
Despite China’s recent slowdown however, signs of a rebound in economic activity are emerging, led by private consumption.
As such, growth is forecast at 4.6 percent in 2023.
In India, growth slowed in the first half of 2022 as activity was interrupted by a surge in COVID-19 cases, resumption of mobility restrictions, and by the shock waves transmitted by the war in Ukraine.
The recovery is further threatened by headwinds from rising inflation. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 112 |
Although the unemployment rate has been reduced to pre-COVID levels, the labour force participation rate also remains below pre-pandemic levels and many workers have opted for lower-paying and less-secure jobs.
India’s growth rate in fiscal year 2021 was 8.7 percent, with the release of pent-up demand.
However, growth is forecast to reduce to 7.4 percent in fiscal 2022; with supply chain disruptions and geopolitical upheaval. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 115 |
Growth will however be buttressed by fixed investments by both the private sector and the government, in response to incentives and reforms to improve the business climate. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 33 |
In Malaysia, following stringent nationwide lockdowns in 2021 due to the ominous Delta variant, an export– oriented manufacturing sector which remained active during lockdowns will enable growth of approximately 5.7 5 Comprises 29 countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Kiribati, Lao P.D.R., Malaysia, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and Vietnam. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 167 |
THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY 2 7 TENACITY AND STABILITY IN THE FACE OF GLOBAL CHALLENGES Review of the Economy 2022 27 percent in 2022.
However, the depths of the wounds inflicted by the pandemic are likely to have long-term scarring and the recovery remains uneven, mired in significant downside risks.
Tourism and agriculture have been especially hit given the interactive nature of tourism and the labour shortage that arose in the agriculture sector due to a decreased migrant flow. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 132 |
In addition, a worse-than-expected slowdown in China, Malaysia’s largest trading partner, as well as long-standing political uncertainty and the war in Ukraine could portend further adversity in Malaysia.
Latin America and the Caribbean6 The economies of Latin America and the Caribbean have staged a robust post-pandemic rebound, but challenges stemming from global financial conditions are threatening the horizon. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 87 |
During the first half of the year, the reopening of important sectors such as travel and hospitality and the relaxing of pent-up demand augured well for the economies, allowing for a solid expansion and for employment to return to pre-pandemic levels.
However, the region is expected to face formidable challenges in the second half of 2022, including social tensions due to energy and food insecurities and tightening global financial conditions. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 100 |
As a result, 3.0 percent growth is anticipated in 2022; down from 6.9 percent in 2021.
Among the largest economies, Chile and Colombia have registered a robust rebound; buttressed by strong growth in services.
This in part, is due to the economies’ fiscal stimulus in late 2021.
Mexico’s economic output is yet to regain its pre-pandemic level as services and construction continue to lag.
Colombia’s economic rebound in 2021 was among the fastest in the region. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 137 |
However, growth is projected at 5.8 percent in 2022, down from a high of 10.6 percent in 2021, led by a rise in household consumption, supported by pent-up domestic demand, robust remittance inflows and resumption of consumer credit.
While GDP has already returned to pre-pandemic levels, employment has paled in comparison and macroeconomic disparities have emerged. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 97 |
Strong demand, coupled with supply limitations and increasing commodity prices, have led to mounting inflation which is projected to increase to 6.9 percent (end of period) in 2022, from 5.6 percent in 2021.
Further, external risks remain imminent and an intensification of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine may exacerbate volatility in financial and commodity markets. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 92 |
Domestic risks are also tilted to the downside, including 6 Comprises 32 countries: Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, and Venezuela. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 145 |
THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY 2 8 REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2022 Review of the Economy 2022 28 uncertainty around the progression of the pandemic and slower implementation of the infrastructure agenda and peace accords.
In June 2022, Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla, was elected Colombia’s first leftist president.
Likewise, strong fundamentals, well-gauged policy frameworks and a track record in policy implementation have supported Chile’s endurance of the pandemic. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 125 |
GDP rebounded by 11.7 percent in 2021 and is expected to grow by 1.5 percent in 2022, and narrow to 0.5 percent in 2023.
Private consumption and fixed investment are expected to decline in 2022 to 2023 as pent-up demand dissipates, extraordinary liquidity balances built up during the pandemic are reduced, and credit conditions tighten.
In May 2022, Chile accepted an IMF offer of a one-year Short-term Liquidity Line (SLL) arrangement, amounting to about US$3.5 billion. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 147 |
This is the first ever arrangement under the SLL which was established in April 2020.
Access to the SLL would provide an additional layer of support as Chile exits the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) agreement, which provided a temporary buffer against extreme external risks.
With a formidable rebound of 10.4 percent in 2021 after contracting by 9.9 percent in 2020, Argentina’s economic expansion continued apace in 2022, driven by robust domestic demand. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 120 |
Growth is anticipated at 4.0 percent in 2022, as the war in Ukraine is expected to have limited impact, given Argentina’s relatively closed economy and due to the services sector’s dynamism following the removal of pandemic restrictions.
In March, 2022, the IMF approved Argentina’s request for a 30-month SDR 31.914 billion (about US$44 billion or 1,001 percent of quota) Extended Arrangement. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 114 |
This programme, if credibly implemented, would assist in curbing high inflation, fortify public finances and debt sustainability, improve reserve coverage, and allow a gradual re- access to international capital markets.
In Brazil, growth is expected to fall sharply to 1.7 percent in 2022, from 4.6 percent in 2021.
The IMF also projects inflation to decline to 7.0 percent in 2022, down from a high of 10.1 in 2021. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 120 |
According to the World Bank, after a solid start to 2022, growth is expected to wane over the year, owing to the squeeze on real incomes from inflation, stalling investment growth, and heightened domestic policy uncertainty.
Programmes to allow extraordinary withdrawals from unemployment insurance funds, accelerate social security payments, and extend concessional loans will offer some relief to households, but possibly at the cost of further intensifying inflation. | https://transfered-docs-lawep.s3.amazonaws.com/thematic1e/pw_1/1725652123696.pdf | https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Review-of-the-Economy-2022.pdf | Trinidad and Tobago | 96 |
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