"A natural experiment: the market changed its mind in 4 days (Brazil 2026)"
#2
by AFOS-Analytics1 - opened
📊 A natural experiment captured in the data this week
The open dataset (prediction markets × polls × press, Brazil 2026) just recorded a clean intra-week reversal: the
Lula–Flávio Polymarket gap moved +11.3 → +6.1 → +13.25pp over Jun 2–8. The market priced a right-wing
reconsolidation thesis and unwound it in four days.
It's a useful testbed for studying how prediction markets absorb and discard narratives — the daily snapshots let
you trace the full arc, not just the endpoints.
Dataset (CC BY 4.0): huggingface.co/datasets/AFOS-Analytics1/brazil-2026-electoral-divergence
Methodology (Apache 2.0): github.com/AFOS-Analytics