Divergence is signal. So is convergence.
#4
by AFOS-Analytics1 - opened
For weeks our Brazil 2026 monitor showed prediction markets pricing the race with a wider margin than the polls. Today both narrowed in the same direction.
Today's read, with the sources: https://www.afos-analytics.com/en/daily/2026-06-29
We publish the full series, market-implied odds next to the registered polls. The method's track record is open across 9 elections in 9 countries on Harvard Dataverse (CC BY): https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/afos-analytics
