| cff-version: 1.2.0 | |
| message: "If you use this dataset, please cite it as below." | |
| title: "AFOS · Canada 2025 Electoral Divergence Dataset" | |
| abstract: >- | |
| Open dataset cross-referencing opinion polls and prediction markets for Canada's | |
| 2025 federal election (House of Commons, 28 April 2025), with explicit poll-versus-market | |
| divergence rather than a blended average. Polls measure party vote share; the market prices | |
| the probability of winning the most seats (FPTP plurality). The market swung from ~85% | |
| Conservative in January to ~80% Liberal in April while vote shares stayed close; the Liberals | |
| won the most seats. Poll figures compiled deterministically from public pollster releases | |
| (via the Wikipedia aggregation); market odds from Polymarket. | |
| type: dataset | |
| authors: | |
| - name: "AFOS Analytics" | |
| website: "https://afos-analytics.com" | |
| keywords: | |
| - elections | |
| - Canada | |
| - opinion polls | |
| - prediction markets | |
| - divergence | |
| - open data | |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 | |
| repository: "https://huggingface.co/datasets/AFOS-Analytics1/canada-2025-electoral-divergence" | |
| url: "https://afos-analytics.com" | |
| version: "2026.06" | |
| date-released: "2026-06-11" | |