AFOS-Analytics1/usa-2024-electoral-divergence

AFOS · USA 2024 Electoral Divergence Dataset

🌐 English · Español · Português

Open dataset cross-referencing opinion polls × prediction markets × press coverage for the 2024 U.S. presidential election (election day 5 November 2024, Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump), built in the same spirit as the AFOS Brazil 2026 dataset: sources are reported side by side with explicit divergence, not blended into a single average, including where the market was wrong.

Maintained by AFOS Analytics. Part of AFOS's expansion of its electoral-divergence method beyond Brazil. No personal data, only public electoral information.

📚 Academic release: this dataset also has a citable, versioned deposit on Harvard Dataverse, DOI 10.7910/DVN/3DJCW5, in the AFOS Analytics collection (alongside the Brazil 2026 dataset). Cite: Felipe, Andre, 2026, "AFOS - USA 2024 Electoral Divergence Dataset", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/3DJCW5, Harvard Dataverse, V1.

---

English

What makes 2024 a uniquely honest case: two markets disagreed.

On the eve of the vote (4 Nov 2024), Polymarket's two big election markets pointed in opposite directions, and the result vindicated one while refuting the other:

Signal	Eve of vote (4 Nov)	Result	Verdict
Winner market (electoral college, US$ 3.7 bn, the largest election market in history)	Trump 56.4% × Harris 43.5%	Trump won the presidency (312-226)	✅ right
Popular-vote market (US$ 628 M)	Trump 25.7% × Harris 74.1%	Trump won the popular vote	❌ wrong
National polls (7-day avg vote share)	Trump 47.8% × Harris 48.4% (near-tie)	Trump +1.5pp (49.8% × 48.3%)	within margin of error

The winner market's conviction that Trump would win ran well ahead of a poll near-tie, and was validated. The popular-vote market did the opposite, favoring Harris, and missed (a Republican had not won the popular vote since 2004). The polls, often maligned, landed close. We report all three, the market's hit and its miss, because the validator is the real result, not a flattering narrative.

Contents (start with the polls):

Path	Rows	Content
polls/usa-national-polls.csv	3,691	National general-election voting intention (Harris & Trump), long format (one row per candidate × poll), from FiveThirtyEight's 2024 poll database. Full provenance: pollster, rating, methodology, sample, population (LV/RV/A), source URL.
data/usa-winner-market-timeseries.csv	613	PRIMARY AXIS. Daily Polymarket win-probability (Trump & Harris) from the "Presidential Election Winner 2024" market, electoral college, US$ 3.7 bn total volume.
data/usa-popularvote-market-timeseries.csv	615	COUNTERPOINT. Daily win-probability from the "Popular Vote Winner 2024" market (US$ 628 M), the market that favored Harris and erred.
data/usa-poll-aggregate-timeseries.csv	1,322	7-day trailing average of national poll vote share (Trump & Harris).
data/usa-divergence-timeseries.csv	218	Market × poll divergence, winner-market win-probability vs poll vote share, daily, for the Harris-Trump head-to-head period (after Biden withdrew, 21 Jul 2024).
press/usa-2024-press-timeline.csv	7	Curated, Wayback-archived press timeline cross-referencing the market×poll tension as it unfolded (the AFOS press axis).
data/usa-case-summary.json	n/a	Validated-case summary (result, both markets, polls, honesty note).
data/usa-winner-poly-raw.json, data/usa-popularvote-poly-raw.json	n/a	Raw Polymarket payloads (event + per-candidate price histories), kept for provenance.

_{Market data fetched from Polymarket's gamma-api + clob (US-resolving function). The divergence axis uses the winner (electoral-college) market, because that is where the market diverged from the poll near-tie and was validated; the popular-vote market is included in full as an honest counterpoint. naive_gap_pp = market win-probability − poll vote share: different units (probability vs share), reported raw and not scale-reconciled.}

⚖️ The reading, why divergence (and honesty) beats the average

• Winner market × polls, the validated signal. Through the Harris-Trump race the winner market kept Trump favored to win (probability about 49-63%) while national polls measured a near-tie in vote share (Trump about 45-48%). The market's conviction led the poll near-tie by roughly +3 to +16 points of win-probability, and the result (Trump) validated it.
• Popular-vote market, the honest miss. The same platform's popular-vote market favored Harris (74% on the eve) and was wrong: Trump won the popular vote (49.8% × 48.3%). Two markets, opposite calls, one right and one wrong, a caution that prediction markets are not monolithic and not infallible.
• The polls were close. 2024 national polls clustered around a tie; Trump's +1.5pp popular-vote win sat within normal polling error. This was not a "polling failure", a point the post-election coverage makes explicitly (see the press timeline).

📰 Press timeline, the third axis (market × poll × press)

The defining meta-story of 2024 was the market-versus-polls divergence itself, covered in real time. Each anchor below was verified live and preserved in the Internet Archive Wayback Machine for permanent citation. Primary sources (AP race call, WSJ "Théo" original) are attributed even where linked via an accessible carrier (NPR/PBS/NBC).

Date	Outlet	Maps to	Headline
18 Oct 2024	Fortune	market × poll diverge	"A handful of pro-Trump bettors have dumped more than $25 million into Polymarket, swaying election odds in his favor"
21 Oct 2024	Al Jazeera	poll near-tie	"Early voting in full swing… Harris and Trump tied in polls"
24 Oct 2024	NBC News (orig. WSJ)	market conviction	"French trader bet over $28 million on Trump election win using 4 Polymarket accounts"
6 Nov 2024	NPR (orig. AP)	result (validator)	"Donald Trump wins the White House, according to AP race call"
6 Nov 2024	PBS NewsHour (orig. AP)	result (validator)	"AP Race Call: Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania"
8 Nov 2024	CNN	market vindicated	"How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn't"
30 Nov 2024	NBC News	poll post-mortem (honesty)	"What the 2024 polls got right, and what they got wrong"

Full URLs and Wayback snapshots in press/usa-2024-press-timeline.csv / .json.

Provenance, attribution & license

Polls, FiveThirtyEight (CC BY 4.0). Poll toplines come from FiveThirtyEight's public 2024 president-poll database. FiveThirtyEight was wound down in 2025 and its live endpoint no longer serves the CSV; this dataset uses the Internet Archive Wayback Machine snapshot of 4 Nov 2024 (archived CSV), a frozen, permanently citable copy. The CC BY 4.0 attribution obligation does not lapse with the site: please credit FiveThirtyEight / ABC News (compiler) and the original polling firms (e.g. NYT/Siena, Marquette, Emerson, Quinnipiac). Nothing is imputed or smoothed; missing values are left blank.

Market odds come from the public Polymarket markets. Press anchors are public articles, archived in the Wayback Machine.

License (dual): data → CC BY 4.0 (LICENSE-CC-BY-4.0); code/scripts → Apache 2.0 (LICENSE-APACHE-2.0), matching the AFOS repo root and Hugging Face mirror. Please attribute AFOS Analytics, FiveThirtyEight / ABC News, and the original pollsters.

Cite: AFOS Analytics. USA 2024 Electoral Divergence Dataset. Hugging Face, 2026. CC BY 4.0. (see CITATION.cff)

Disclaimer: observational research. Not investment advice, not voting guidance.

---

Español

Dataset abierto que cruza encuestas × mercados de predicción × cobertura de prensa para la elección presidencial de EE. UU. 2024 (5 nov 2024, Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump), con divergencia explícita entre fuentes, incluido dónde el mercado se equivocó.

Lo que hace de 2024 un caso singularmente honesto: dos mercados se contradijeron. En la víspera (4 nov):

• Mercado de ganador (colegio electoral, US$ 3,7 bn, el mayor mercado electoral de la historia): Trump 56,4% × Harris 43,5% → acertó (Trump ganó la presidencia, 312-226).
• Mercado de voto popular (US$ 628 M): Trump 25,7% × Harris 74,1% → se equivocó (Trump ganó el voto popular; ningún republicano lo ganaba desde 2004).
• Encuestas (promedio 7 días): Trump 47,8% × Harris 48,4% (empate técnico); resultado Trump +1,5pp (49,8% × 48,3%), dentro del margen de error.

El eje de divergencia usa el mercado de ganador (donde el mercado divergió del empate de las encuestas y fue validado); el de voto popular se incluye completo como contrapunto honesto. naive_gap_pp = probabilidad de ganar del mercado − voto de la encuesta (unidades distintas, sin reconciliar).

• polls/usa-national-polls.csv, intención de voto nacional (Harris & Trump), formato largo, de la base de FiveThirtyEight (3.691 filas).
• data/usa-winner-market-timeseries.csv / usa-popularvote-market-timeseries.csv, probabilidad diaria de Polymarket (colegio = eje; voto popular = contrapunto).
• data/usa-divergence-timeseries.csv, divergencia mercado × encuesta (probabilidad de ganar vs voto), periodo Harris-Trump.
• press/usa-2024-press-timeline.csv, línea de tiempo de prensa curada y archivada en Wayback (mercado × encuesta × prensa).

La lectura: el mercado de ganador acertó frente al empate de las encuestas (señal validada); el de voto popular falló (contrapunto honesto); las encuestas quedaron cerca. El validador es el resultado real, no un relato favorable.

Fuentes/licencia: encuestas de FiveThirtyEight / ABC News (CC BY 4.0, vía snapshot de Wayback del 4 nov 2024), atribuir a FiveThirtyEight y a las encuestadoras originales; odds de Polymarket; prensa archivada en Wayback. Licencia dual: datos CC BY 4.0, scripts Apache 2.0. Atribuir a AFOS Analytics. Investigación observacional; no es asesoría de inversión ni orientación de voto.

---

Português

Dataset aberto cruzando pesquisas × mercados de previsão × cobertura de imprensa para a eleição presidencial dos EUA 2024 (5/nov/2024, Kamala Harris × Donald Trump), com divergência explícita entre fontes, inclusive onde o mercado errou.

O que torna 2024 um caso singularmente honesto: dois mercados se contradisseram. Na véspera (4/nov):

• Mercado de vencedor (colégio eleitoral, US$ 3,7 bi, o maior mercado eleitoral da história): Trump 56,4% × Harris 43,5% → acertou (Trump venceu a presidência, 312-226).
• Mercado de voto popular (US$ 628 M): Trump 25,7% × Harris 74,1% → errou (Trump venceu o voto popular; republicano não ganhava o voto popular desde 2004).
• Pesquisas (média de 7 dias): Trump 47,8% × Harris 48,4% (empate técnico); resultado Trump +1,5pp (49,8% × 48,3%), dentro da margem de erro.

O eixo de divergência usa o mercado de vencedor (onde o mercado divergiu do empate das pesquisas e foi validado); o de voto popular entra completo como contraponto honesto. naive_gap_pp = probabilidade de vencer do mercado − voto da pesquisa (unidades diferentes, não reconciliado).

• polls/usa-national-polls.csv, intenção de voto nacional (Harris & Trump), formato longo, da base do FiveThirtyEight (3.691 linhas).
• data/usa-winner-market-timeseries.csv / usa-popularvote-market-timeseries.csv, probabilidade diária do Polymarket (colégio = eixo; voto popular = contraponto).
• data/usa-divergence-timeseries.csv, divergência mercado × pesquisa (probabilidade de vencer vs voto), período Harris-Trump.
• press/usa-2024-press-timeline.csv, linha do tempo de imprensa curada e arquivada no Wayback (mercado × pesquisa × imprensa).

⚖️ A leitura, por que a divergência (e a honestidade) supera a média

• Mercado de vencedor × pesquisas, o sinal validado. O mercado manteve Trump favorito a vencer (cerca de 49-63%) enquanto as pesquisas mediam empate no voto (cerca de 45-48%). A convicção do mercado ia +3 a +16 pontos à frente do empate, e o resultado (Trump) validou.
• Mercado de voto popular, o erro honesto. O mesmo Polymarket dava Harris (74% na véspera) e errou. Dois mercados, chamadas opostas, um certo e um errado, alerta de que mercados de previsão não são monolíticos nem infalíveis.
• As pesquisas ficaram perto. Trump +1,5pp no voto popular ficou dentro do erro amostral; não foi "pesquisa furada" (a imprensa pós-eleição diz isso explicitamente).

Fontes/licença: pesquisas do FiveThirtyEight / ABC News (CC BY 4.0, via snapshot do Wayback de 4/nov/2024), atribuir ao FiveThirtyEight e aos institutos originais; odds do Polymarket; imprensa arquivada no Wayback. Licença dual: dados CC BY 4.0, scripts Apache 2.0. Atribuir a AFOS Analytics. Pesquisa observacional; não é recomendação de investimento nem orientação de voto.

---

Sources / Fuentes / Fontes: FiveThirtyEight 2024 president polls (CC BY 4.0, via Wayback) · Polymarket (winner + popular-vote markets) · curated press (AP/NPR/PBS, Fortune, CNN, NBC, Al Jazeera, Wayback-archived). Column definitions in DATA_DICTIONARY.md.

Structural context (World Bank)

Beyond the divergence data, this dataset ships data/usa-structural-context.csv: official, open World Bank indicators that frame the country, governance (Worldwide Governance Indicators, 0-100 scale) plus economy & education (World Development Indicators: population, GDP, GDP per capita, inflation, public education spending, expected years of schooling). These are annual structural indicators that contextualize the country; they do not predict the electoral outcome. Columns are documented in DATA_DICTIONARY.md.