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SEIRD Model for Qatar Covid-19 Outbreak: A Case Study
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| The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop mathematical-statistical models of the outbreak for policy and planning purposes. This work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model using Susceptibles, Exposed, Infected, Recovered and Deaths status through time. A Bayesian Framework i... |
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Stabilizing COVID-19 Infections in US by Feedback Control based Test and Quarantine
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| COVID-19 has caused an unprecedented amount of mental and economic turmoil with ever increasing fatality and no vaccination in sight Here, feedback control theory based regulation of daily tests and quarantine is proposed to guarantee prescribed degree of exponential decay in number of infections A dynamic model of COV... |
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Epidemiological profile and performance of triage decision-making process of COVID-19 suspected cases in southern Tunisia
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| INTRODUCTION: During an epidemic, screening processes can play a crucial role in limiting the spread of the infection. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiological profile of COVID-19 suspected cases and to evaluate the performance of the triage process in predicting COVID-19 in Southern Tunisia. METHODS: ... |
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Surveillance of COVID-19 Pandemic using Hidden Markov Model
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| COVID-19 pandemic has brought the whole world to a stand-still over the last few months. In particular the pace at which pandemic has spread has taken everybody off-guard. The Governments across the world have responded by imposing lock-downs, stopping/restricting travel and mandating social distancing. On the positive... |
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Covid-19 virus diffusion in Italy: Data quality and methodological challenges
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| In early 2020, it emerged in Italy a large outbreak of Covid-19, the infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In this context, producing as accurate as possible forecasting models was crucial both for the containment of the epidemic and for the planning of effective pol... |
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Spreading of COVID-19 in Italy as the spreading of a wave packet
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| We find that the spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy can be described as the propagation of a wave packet in a dispersive medium where the effect of lockdown is simulated by the dispersion relation of the medium. We start expanding a previous statistical analysis based on the official data provided by the Itali... |
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Early Detection of COVID-19 Epidemic Using Search Engine Query Data
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| Background: Early warnings of emerging infectious disease are crucial to prevent epidemics. However, in the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, traditional infectious disease surveillance failed to deliver a warning alert. The aim of this work is to develop search-engine-based surveillance methods for the early warni... |
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Using a genetic algorithm to fit parameters of a COVID-19 SEIR model for US states
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| Background: A Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model was developed to forecast the spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in the United States and the implications of re-opening and hospital resource utilization The model relies on the specification of various parameters that characterize the virus and... |
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The Research of SEIJR Model with Time-Delay based on 2019-nCov
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| A global epidemic disease known as the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) had seriously hit the most area around the whole world causing unpredictable loss of manpower and finance during the past one year. Modeling the spread and development of infectious diseases represented by new Coronavirus has become an important part ... |
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New dynamical behaviour of the coronavirus (2019-ncov) infection system with non-local operator from reservoirs to people
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| The mathematical accepts while analysing the evolution of real word problems magnetizes the attention of many scholars In this connection, we analysed and find the solution for nonlinear system exemplifying the most dangerous and deadly virus called coronavirus The six ordinary differential equations of fractional orde... |
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A data driven agent-based model that recommends non-pharmaceutical interventions to suppress Coronavirus disease 2019 resurgence in megacities
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| Before herd immunity against Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is achieved by mass vaccination, science-based guidelines for non-pharmaceutical interventions are urgently needed to reopen megacities. This study integrated massive mobile phone tracking records, census data and building characteristics into a spatially... |
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Rapid review of the existing COVID-19 Case Definitions: A Bayesian Approach model to COVID-19 Case Definitions: A Research Article
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| Background: Since December 2019, the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has rapidly spread around the world leading to a pandemic with more than 3,000,000 infected people and more than 200,000 death. Several case definitions have been released and revised by countries and organizations. However, collectivization of c... |
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The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic course in Saudi Arabia: A dynamic epidemiological model
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| OBJECTIVE: Saudi Arabia ranks second in the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the Eastern Mediterranean region. It houses the two most sacred religious places for Muslims: Mecca and Medina. It is important to know what the trend in case numbers will be in the next 4–6 months, especially during the ... |
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The Geographical Distribution of Probable COVID-19 Patients Transferred by Tehran Emergency Medical Services;a Cross Sectional Study
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| Introduction: Mapping of COVID-19 infection in the city can help us know more about how the disease is distributed and spread This study was conducted to investigate the geographical distribution of probable COVID-19 patients who were transferred to destination hospitals by emergency medical services (EMS) in the first... |
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Modeling Effectiveness of Partial Lockdown in Breaking Covid-19 Transmission Chain in Malaysia
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| The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) was first reported in Wuhan, China in early December 2019. On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization declared Covid-19 a worldwide pandemic. Within six months, this highly infectious disease has rapidly spread over 200 countries in six continents, infecting more than 12 mil... |
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Can mathematical modelling solve the current Covid-19 crisis?
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| Since COVID-19 transmission started in late January, mathematical modelling has been at the forefront of shaping the decisions around different non-pharmaceutical interventions to confine its’ spread in the UK and worldwide. This Editorial discusses the importance of modelling in understanding Covid-19 spread, highligh... |
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The collective wisdom in the COVID-19 research: comparison and synthesis of epidemiological parameter estimates in preprints and peer-reviewed articles.
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| OBJECTIVES We aimed to explore the collective wisdom of preprints related to COVID-19 by comparing and synthesizing with results of peer-reviewed publications. METHODS PubMed, Google Scholar, medRxiv, bioRxiv, arXiv, and SSRN were searched for papers about the estimation of four epidemiological parameters of the COVID-... |
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The Influence of Potential Infection on the Relationship between Temperature and Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in China
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| Considering the impact of the number of potential new coronavirus infections in each city, this paper explores the relationship between temperature and cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in mainland China through the non-parametric method. In this paper, the floating population of each city in Wuhan is taken as a p... |
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How we should respond to the Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 outbreak: A German perspective
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| BACKGROUND: In the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic Germany missed to set up efficient containment measures. Consequently, the number of cases increased exponentially until a lockdown was implemented to suppress the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Fortunately, Germany has a high capability for coronavirus lab testing and mor... |
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Estimation of COVID-19 epidemiology curve of the United States using genetic programming algorithm
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| Estimation of the epidemiology curve for the COVID-19 pandemic can be a very computationally challenging task Thus far, there have been some implementations of artificial intelligence (AI) methods applied to develop epidemiology curve for a specific country However, most applied AI methods generated models that are alm... |
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Global analysis of daily new COVID-19 cases reveals many static-phase countries including US and UK potentially with unstoppable epidemics
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| The COVID-19 epidemics are differentially progressing in different countries. Here, comparative analyses of daily new cases reveal that 61 most affected countries can be classified into four types: downward (22), upward (20), static-phase (12) and uncertain ones (7). In particular, the 12 static-phase countries includi... |
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Forecasting the COVID-19 epidemic: the case of New Zealand
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| We estimate a statistical model for COVID-19 cases and deaths in New Zealand. New Zealand is an important test case for statistical and theoretical research into the dynamics of the global pandemic since it went through a full cycle of infections. We choose functional forms for infections and deaths that incorporate im... |
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Policy disparities in fighting COVID-19 among Japan, Italy, Singapore and China
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| OBJECTIVE: In order to provide experiences for international epidemic control, this study systematically summarized the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevention and control policies in Japan, Italy, China and Singapore, and also analyzed the possible inequalities that exist in these response approaches to improve... |
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Forecasting the effect of social distancing on COVID-19 autumn-winter outbreak in the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires
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| Forecasting the extent of the domestic health risk of epidemics by mathematical modeling is a useful tool for evaluating the feasibility of policies for controlling outbreaks The objective of this study was to develop a time-dependent dynamic simulation model to forecast the COVID-19 autumn-winter outbreak in the metro... |
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Comparative prediction of confirmed cases with COVID-19 pandemic by machine learning, deterministic and stochastic SIR models
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| In this paper, we propose a machine learning technics and SIR models (deterministic and stochastic cases) with numerical approximations to predict the number of cases infected with the COVID-19, for both in few days and the following three weeks. Like in [1] and based on the public data from [2], we estimate parameters... |
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Real-World Implications of a Rapidly Responsive COVID-19 Spread Model with Time-Dependent Parameters via Deep Learning: Model Development and Validation
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| BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major disruptions worldwide since March 2020. The experience of the 1918 influenza pandemic demonstrated that decreases in the infection rates of COVID-19 do not guarantee continuity of the trend. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop a precise spread model of COVI... |
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Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Global Prediction Using Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Method of ANN Trained with Grey Wolf Optimizer
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| Advancement of the novel models for time-series prediction of COVID-19 is of utmost importance Machine learning (ML) methods have recently shown promising results The present study aims to engage an artificial neural network-integrated by grey wolf optimizer for COVID-19 outbreak predictions by employing the Global dat... |
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Simple method for estimating daily and total COVID-19 deaths using a Gumbel model
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| The purpose of the present paper is to introduce a method for forecasting daily and total numbers of COVID-19-associated deaths. We apply the Gumbel distribution function for the analysis of time series data of the first wave. The Gumbel distribution function F(t) has a notable property of F(t) = 1/2.718 at the node (p... |
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RLIM: A Recursive and Latent Infection Model for COVID-19 Prediction and Turning Point in United States
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| Initially found at Hubei, Wuhan and identified as a novel virus of coronavirus family by WHO, COVID-19 has spread worldwide with an exponentially speed, causing millions of death and public fear. Currently, COVID19 has brought a secondary wave within U.S., India, Brazil and other parts of the world. However, its transm... |
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Study of ARIMA and least square support vector machine (LS-SVM) models for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 confirmed cases in the most affected countries
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| Discussions about the recently identified deadly coronavirus disease (COVID-19) which originated in Wuhan, China in December 2019 are common around the globe now. This is an infectious and even life-threatening disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It has rapidly spread to ... |
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Analytical Study Based Modeling for Covid-19 Using Advance Technology
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| Computer based intelligence innovations and apparatuses assume a key job in each part of the COVID-19 emergency reaction. Understanding the infection and quickening clinical exploration on medications and medicines is one of the factor. Recognizing and diagnosing the infection, and anticipating its advancement helping ... |
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More meat, more covid-19 cases? comparative study between usa and china in importing mutton
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| Mutton is known as a source of fat Too much fat can cause high blood pressure and hypertension which is more vulnerable to get infected by COVID-19 This study has a purpose to observe if there is a correlation between meat consumption and the number of COVID cases in the USA and China This study is a quantitative type ... |
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New strategy to control covid-19 pandemic using lead/lag compensator
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| COVID-19 is still the main worldwide issue since the outbreak. Many strategies were implemented such as suppression, mitigation, and mathematical-engineering strategies, to control this pandemic. In this work, a lead/lag compensator is proposed to control an unstable Covid-19 nonlinear system after using some required ... |
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CovidNet: To Bring Data Transparency in the Era of COVID-19
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| Timely, creditable, and fine-granular case information is vital for local communities and individual citizens to make rational and data-driven responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper presents CovidNet, a COVID-19 tracking project associated with a large scale epidemic dataset, which was initiated by 1Point3Acres... |
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Expecting individuals’ body reaction to Covid-19 based on statistical Naïve Bayes technique
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| Covid-19, what a strange, unpredictable mutated virus. It has baffled many scientists, as no firm rule has yet been reached to predict the effect that the virus can inflict on people if they are infected with it. Recently, many researches have been introduced for diagnosing Covid-19; however, none of them pay attention... |
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Kaplan-Meier Type Survival Curves for COVID-19: A Health Data Based Decision-Making Tool
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| Countries are recording health information on the global spread of COVID-19 using different methods, sometimes changing the rules after a few days. All of them are publishing the number of new individuals infected, recovered and dead individuals, along with some supplementary material. These data are often recorded in ... |
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COVID-19 Pandemic: Power Law Spread and Flattening of the Curve
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| In this paper, we analyze the real-time infection data of COVID-19 epidemic for nine nations Our analysis is up to May 04, 2020 South Korea, China, Italy, France, Spain, and Germany have either flattened or close to flattening their epidemic curves USA and Japan have transitioned to a linear regime, while India is stil... |
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A stochastic epidemic model of COVID-19 disease
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| To model the evolution of diseases with extended latency periods and the presence of asymptomatic patients like COVID-19, we define a simple discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model We include both latent periods as well as the presence of quarantine areas, to capture the evolutionary dynamics of such diseases ... |
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Investigating the Role of Environmental Transmission in COVID-19 Dynamics: A Mathematical Model Based Study
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| A mathematical model with environmental transmission has been proposed and analyzed to investigate its role in the transmission dynamics of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. Two expressions for the basic reproduction number R 0 have been analytically derived using the next generation matrix method. The two expressions com... |
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Airports, highways and COVID-19: An analysis of spatial dynamics in Brazil
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| Introduction The high transmissibility and infectivity of the new coronavirus, the high proportion of asymptomatic transmitters and the rapid and continuous spatial displacement of people, by the different mechanisms of locomotion, are elements that can contribute to the dissemination of COVID-19 This study aims to des... |
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An Empirical Mode Decomposition Fuzzy Forecast Model for COVID-19
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| At present, the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is ravaging the world, bringing great impact on people’s life safety and health as well as the healthy development of economy and society, so the research on the prediction of the development trend of the epidemic is crucial. In this paper, we focus on the prevention... |
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Mathematical prediction of the time evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy by a Gauss error function and Monte Carlo simulations
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| In this paper are presented mathematical predictions on the evolution in time of the number of positive cases in Italy of the COVID-19 pandemic based on official data and on the use of a function of the type of a Gauss error function, with four parameters, as a cumulative distribution function. We have analyzed the ava... |
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Modeling and analysis of the dynamics of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) with Caputo fractional derivative
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| The new emerged infectious disease that is known the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), which is a high contagious viral infection that started in December 2019 in China city Wuhan and spread very fast to the rest of the world This infection caused million of infected cases globally and still pose an alarming situation fo... |
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The effect of sociodemographic factors on COVID-19 incidence of 342 cities in China: a geographically weighted regression model analysis
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| BACKGROUND: Since December 2019, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread quickly among the population and brought a severe global impact. However, considerable geographical disparities in the distribution of COVID-19 incidence existed among different cities. In this study, we aimed to explore the effect of s... |
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Is 14-Days a Sensible Quarantine Length for COVID-19? Examinations of Some Associated Issues with a Case Study of COVID-19 Incubation Times
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| To confine the spread of an infectious disease, setting a sensible quarantine time is crucial. To this end, it is imperative to well understand the distribution of incubation times of the disease. Regarding the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, 14-days is commonly taken as a quarantine time to curb the virus spread in balanci... |
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Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding process
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| COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the recently discovered coronavirus SARS-Cov-2. The disease became pandemic affecting many countries globally, including Brazil. Considering the expansion process and particularities during the initial stages of the epidemic, we aimed to analyze the spatial and spatiotemporal... |
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Prediction New Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia Using Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) Methods
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| The addition of Covid-19 cases is still uncontrolled, especially in Indonesia. Often the addition of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia always experiences a significant upward trend after a slightly loose government policy. This is because the government does not think there will be a spike in cases after cases go down. This ... |
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BETS: The dangers of selection bias in early analyses of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic
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| The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has quickly grown from a regional outbreak in Wuhan, China to a global pandemic. Early estimates of the epidemic growth and incubation period of COVID-19 may have been biased due to sample selection. Using detailed case reports from 14 locations in and outside mainland China, we ... |
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COVID-19 Prediction model using Machine Learning
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| The outbreak of the deadly virus COVID-19 is said to infect 17.3Cr people around the globe since 2019. This outbreak is continuously affecting a lot of new people till this day and, most of it is said to under control. However, vaccines introduced around the world can help mitigate the risk of the virus. Apart from med... |
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Social restriction versus herd immunity policies in the early phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: A mathematical modelling study
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| BACKGROUND: Two main strategies to cope with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic-lockdown (social restriction) and non-lockdown (herd immunity plan)-have been implemented in several countries. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to statistically compare the outcomes of the two strategies, represented by data from T... |
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From the index case to global spread: The global mobility based modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic implies higher infection rate and lower detection ratio than current estimates
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| Background: Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, multiple efforts of modelling of the geo-temporal transmissibility of the virus have been undertaken, but none describes the pandemic spread at the global level. The aim of this research is to provide a high-resolution global model of the pandemic that overcomes ... |
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Understanding the epidemic course in order to improve epidemic forecasting
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| Abstract The epidemic course of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has been differently divided according to its transmission pattern and the infection and mortality status, and such efforts for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been lacking Does every epidemic have a unique epidemic course? Can we... |
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Estimating and mitigating the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound associated with reopening of international borders in Vietnam: a modelling study
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| BACKGROUND: Vietnam has emerged as one of the world's leading success stories in responding to COVID-19. After a prolonged period of little to no transmission, there was an outbreak of unknown source in July, 2020, in the Da Nang region, but the outbreak was quickly suppressed. We aimed to use epidemiological, behaviou... |
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Using Unstated Cases to Correct for COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak and Its Impact on Easing the Intervention for Qatar
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| SIMPLE SUMMARY: A modified SIR model was applied to provide COVID-19 pandemic analysis and predictions for Gulf Cooperation Council countries, as well as representative countries in Europe and New York City. We estimated reported, infected, and unreported cases from cumulative reported cases and simulated data. We also... |
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Multicriteria Recommender System: A New Model for Determining risk level of COVID-19 in Indonesia
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| Coronavirus has spread all over the world and brought significant impact to everyday life. This highly infectious virus calls for new strategies and policies that are able to suppress its transmission rate. One of the ways is by lockdown. However, lockdown is not an infallible solution and it brings with it negative im... |
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Correlation Analysis of the Population Emigration Rate in Wuhan and the Trend of Novel Pneumonia in Hubei Province
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| Background: The ongoing outbreak of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) poses a challenge for China We speculated that the emigration rate of Wu |
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Modeling Propagation of COVID-19 in the UK
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| COVID-19 was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. From the beginning, this disease has been the subject of various scientific studies. Due to the large amount of data related to the spread of COVID-19 and the high speed of changes, particularly in modeling and forecasting works, it is required to update t... |
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A data-driven assessment of early travel restrictions related to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 within mainland China
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| Two months after it was firstly reported, the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 has already spread worldwide. However, the vast majority of reported infections have occurred in China. To assess the effect of early travel restrictions adopted by the health authorities in China, we have implemented an epidemic metapopul... |
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Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of public health measures to control COVID-19: a modelling study
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| Background The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in China, which caused a respiratory disease known as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since its discovery, the virus has spread to over 100 countries and claimed more than 4000 deaths. This study aimed to assess the effe... |
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Understanding and Strengthening the Emergency Management and Comprehensive Disaster Reduction in China’s Rural Areas: Lessons from Coping with the COVID-19 Epidemic
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| Community based bottom-up design is the foundation of national emergency management system The outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic in early 2020 is a major test of emergency management capability in rural China This paper first describes the necessity of strengthening the emergency management design in rural areas of China T... |
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Strong correlations between power-law growth of COVID-19 in four continents and the inefficiency of soft quarantine strategies
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| In this work, we analyze the growth of the cumulative number of confirmed infected cases by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) until March 27, 2020, from countries of Asia, Europe, North America, and South America. Our results show that (i) power-law growth is observed in all countries; (ii) by using the distance correlati... |
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Impact of intervention methods on COVID-19 transmission in Shenzhen
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| By March 31, 2020, COVID-19 had spread to more than 200 countries. Over 750,000 confirmed cases were reported, leading to more than 36,000 deaths. In this study, we analysed the efficiency of various intervention strategies to prevent infection by the virus, SARS-CoV-2, using an agent-based SEIIR model, in the fully ur... |
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Impact of the healthcare potential in the European countries on infections and mortality caused by Covid-19
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| The COVID-19 outbreak posed several challenges to healthcare professionals in treating patients: limiting the spread of infection; develop appropriate short-term strategies; and formulating long-term plans. Each of the affected countries had specific capacities before the outbreak began. This potential may have helped ... |
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Quarantining arriving travelers in the era of COVID-19: balancing the risk and benefits a learning experience from Bahrain
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| The quarantine period imposed to travelers in many countries due to COVID19 is a major obstacle for any traveler Lifting the quarantine period could lead to significant improvement in people's quality of life and any country's economy Bahrain have used two quarantine models from arriving passengers We report data about... |
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Predicting the incidence of COVID-19 using data mining
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| BACKGROUND: The high prevalence of COVID-19 has made it a new pandemic. Predicting both its prevalence and incidence throughout the world is crucial to help health professionals make key decisions. In this study, we aim to predict the incidence of COVID-19 within a two-week period to better manage the disease. METHODS:... |
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Population flow drives spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China
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| Sudden, large-scale and diffuse human migration can amplify localized outbreaks of disease into widespread epidemics1-4. Rapid and accurate tracking of aggregate population flows may therefore be epidemiologically informative. Here we use 11,478,484 counts of mobile phone data from individuals leaving or transiting thr... |
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S-E-I-R model solution for malaysia covid-19 pandemic projection
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| Since the COVID-19 pandemic started at the end of December 2019, Malaysia has experienced their worst nightmare of the first wave trajectory, and now evolving in the second wave pandemic to have even worst scenario with higher fatality rate. The strategy carried out by the Malaysian government has proved the effectiven... |
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A fractional-order model of COVID-19 with a strong Allee effect considering the fear effect spread by social networks to the community and the existence of the silent spreaders during the pandemic stage
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| End of 2019, the world has experienced a virus known as COVID-19, which almost changed everything in our daily and social lives. Every day, experts in medicine, economics, finance, and many different fields inform the community through the media or social networks about the virus, the effects, and changes in our "new l... |
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Modeling and Simulation: A study on predicting the outbreak of COVID- 19 in Saudi Arabia
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| The novel coronavirus (Covid-19) infection has resulted in an ongoing pandemic affecting health system and economy of more than 200 countries around the world. Mathematical models are used to predict the biological and epidemiological trends of an epidemic and develop methods for controlling it. In this work, we use ma... |
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Controlling the Spread of COVID-19: Optimal Control Analysis
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| Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a disease caused by Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2). It was declared on March 11, 2020, by the World Health Organization as pandemic disease. The disease has neither approved medicine nor vaccine and has made government and scholars search for drastic ... |
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Influence of mobility, population and effective reproductive number (R) on the transmission of Coronavirus
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| The present investigation reviews the potential causes of the novel Corona virus (COVID-19) spread based on various parameters studied At the onset of COVID-19 pandemic there were number of parameters that were believed to be the dominating factor, and the demand of present scenario is to determine the potential variab... |
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Assessing the strength of case growth trends in the coronavirus pandemic
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| The ability to distinguish between erratic and systematic patterns of change in case count data is crucial for assessing and projecting the course of disease outbreaks. Here, it is shown that measuring the strength of trends can provide information that is not readily captured by commonly used descriptive indicators. I... |
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A Predictive Model for the Evolution of COVID-19
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| We predict the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in several countries using a logistic model The model uses a regression analysis based on the least-squares fitting In particular, the growth rate of the infection has been fitted as an exponential decay, as compared to a linear decay, reported previously in logistic mo... |
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COVID 19 Peak Time Prediction via a Gradient Boosting Method
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| The outbreak of COVID-19 has caught humanity off guard Peak-times differ in countries based on their characteristics and precautions taken by governments In this study, we aimed to determine relative importance of indicators on the spread and to assist non-peaked countries to estimate their peak-times Gradient Boosting... |
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The Impact of COVID-19 Confinement on Regional Mobility of Spatial-Temporal Social Networks
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| Over the past few months, COVID-19 has emerged to the world as a new threat to humanity and communities, expanding from a few small infected cities to hundreds of countries around the world impacting businesses, education, economics, and almost every activity associated with human life This had led many researchers and... |
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Another look at a good approximation of data for the distribution of COVID-19 in Cuba/ Otra mirada hacia una correcta aproximación de datos para la distribución de la COVID-19 en Cuba
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| ABSTRACT In the article "Adjustment of population growth curve applied to Covid-19 in Cuba", the authors propose six types of models to approximate data from the distribution of COVID-19 in Cuba, while giving a clear answer to the possible advantages of some considerations. In this paper, we study intrinsic properties ... |
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Forecasting cumulative covid-19 cases in malaysia and rising to unprecedented levels
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| Background: COVID-19 outbreak is being studied throughout the world Adding more analysis to date strengthening the information about the illness Here, we analysis the data of Malaysian Ministry of Health from February 15, 2020 until January 10, 2021 was analysed using linear regression model statistical analysis with a... |
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Management strategies in a SEIR model of COVID 19 community spread
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| The 2019 Novel Corona virus infection (COVID-19) is an ongoing public health emergency of international focus. Significant gaps persist in our knowledge of COVID-19 epidemiology, transmission dynamics, investigation tools and management, despite (or possibly because of) the fact that the outbreak is an unprecedented gl... |
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Effects of climatological parameters on the outbreak spread of COVID-19 in highly affected regions of Spain
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| The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is infecting the human population, killing people, and destroying livelihoods. This research sought to explore the associations of daily average temperature (AT) and air quality (PM(2.5)) with the daily new cases of COVID-19 in the top four regions of Spain (Castilla y Leon, Castilla... |
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Parametric analysis of early data on COVID-19 expansion in selected European countries
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| We analyze the early data on COVID-19 expansion in selected European countries using an analytical parametric model. A description of the time dependence of the disease expansion and a method to evaluate trends of the expansion are proposed. Several features are observed in the data, namely a high predictability of the... |
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A mathematical modeling with optimal control strategy of transmission of covid-19 pandemic virus
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| In this paper, we propose a mathematical modeling that describe the dynamics of transmission of the novel Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19), between potential people and infected people without symptoms, and those infected people with symptoms and then people with serious complications, as well as those under health surveill... |
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Review and prospects of strategies and measures for typhoon-related disaster risk reduction under public emergencies in TC region
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| The unexpectedly outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020, as a public emergency, has impacted the way of human behavior deeply and widely in today's society, including the countermeasures of typhoon-related disaster risk reduction and preparedness in the Members of Typhoon Committee (TC). This paper briefed the impacts due ... |
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Effect of changing case definitions for COVID-19 on the epidemic curve and transmission parameters in mainland China: a modelling study
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| BACKGROUND: When a new infectious disease emerges, appropriate case definitions are important for clinical diagnosis and for public health surveillance. Tracking case numbers over time is important to establish the speed of spread and the effectiveness of interventions. We aimed to assess whether changes in case defini... |
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Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Epidemic Data Analysis and Regional Prevention and Control Research
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| At the beginning of 2020, a war without smoke of gunpowder came Scientific prevention and accurate policy implementation is the key to epidemic prevention and control General secretary Xi Jinping stressed the importance of using big data to strengthen the tracing and monitoring of the epidemic situation With 1 6 billio... |
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Analysis of the Spread of COVID-19 in the USA with a Spatio-Temporal Multivariate Time Series Model
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| With the rapid spread of the pandemic due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the virus has already led to considerable mortality and morbidity worldwide, as well as having a severe impact on economic development. In this article, we analyze the state-level correlation between COVID-19 risk and weather/climate ... |
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Predicting COVID‐19 Cases From Atmospheric Parameters Using Machine Learning Approach
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| The dynamical nature of COVID‐19 cases in different parts of the world requires robust mathematical approaches for prediction and forecasting. In this study, we aim to (a) forecast future COVID‐19 cases based on past infections, (b) predict current COVID‐19 cases using PM2.5, temperature, and humidity data, using four ... |
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DeepTrack: Monitoring and Exploring Spatio-Temporal Data - A Case of Tracking COVID-19
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| Spatio-temporal data analysis is very important in many time-critical applications We take Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) as an example, and the key questions that everyone will ask every day are: how does Coronavirus spread? where are the high-risk areas? where have confirmed cases around me? Interactive data analytic... |
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The Data set for Patient Information Based Algorithm to Predict Mortality Cause by COVID-19
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| Abstract The data of COVID-19 disease in China and then in South Korea were collected daily from several different official websites. The collected data included 33 death cases in Wuhan city of Hubei province during early outbreak as well as confirmed cases and death toll in some specific regions, which were chosen as ... |
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Practice of Online Prevention and Control, Diagnosis and Treatment Model for COVID-19 in Large Com?prehensive Hospitals
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| 新型冠状病毒肺炎作为乙类传染病,采取甲类传染病的防控措施 面对四川地区医疗资源分配不均的现状、传统信息传播途径带来的风险和严峻复杂的防控形势,四川大学华西医院结合自身实际和优势,对新型冠状病毒疫情形势下在线防控与诊疗模式进行探索实践 通过线上快速全覆盖培训医卫人员,面向大众及特定个体进行科普宣教、在线诊疗咨询、5G远程会诊等方式实现信息资源、专家资源和技术资源的共享,为打赢疫情防控阻击战贡献华西智慧 |
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Exploring the Parent-Child Landscape Pattern after COVID-19
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| This article discusses the design of parent-child landscape space, in the 5-minute life circle, that is getting more and more attention in the late stage of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) By studying the theory and practice of current parent-child landscape design, combined with the age characteristics of children, it ... |
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Estimating Effectiveness of Preventing Measures for 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19)
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| This paper implements the infection process of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) in an agent-based model and compares the effectiveness of multiple infection prevention measures. In the model, 1120 virtual residents agents live in two towns where they commute to office or school and visiting stores. The model ... |
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Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria.
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| A mathematical model is designed and used to study the transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The model, which was rigorously analysed and parametrized using COVID-19 data published by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), was used to assess the community-wide impact of various control and m... |
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Naive forecast for COVID-19 in Utah based on the South Korea and Italy models-the fluctuation between two extremes
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| Differences in jurisdictional public health actions have played a significant role in the relative success of local communities in combating and containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We forecast the possible COVID-19 outbreak in one US state (Utah) by applying empirical data from South Korea and Italy, two countries that i... |
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Characterization of partially observed epidemics through Bayesian inference: application to COVID-19
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| We demonstrate a Bayesian method for the "real-time" characterization and forecasting of partially observed COVID-19 epidemic. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients. The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch... |
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### Response:
Strong policies control the spread of COVID‐19 in China
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| OBJECTIVE: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) outbroke in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, affecting more than 200 countries and regions. This study aimed to predict the development of the epidemic with specific interventional policies applied in China and evaluate their effectiveness. METHODS: COVID‐19 data of Hubei... |
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Interpretation of the Basic and Effective Reproduction Number
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| In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (R(0)) is a term that describes the expected number of infections generated by 1 case in a susceptible population. At the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, R(0) was frequently referenced by the public health community and the wider public. Howe... |
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Inferring key epidemiological parameters and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 based on a modified SEIR model
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| This study aims to establish a model-based framework for inferring key transmission characteristics of the newly emerging outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), especially the epidemic dynamics under quarantine conditions Inspired by the shifting therapeutic levels and capacity at different stages of the ... |
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Bayesian hierarchical model for mapping positive patient COVID-19 in Surabaya, Indonesia
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| Covid-19 is a disease caused by the coronavirus and has infected the world population not only in developing countries like Indonesia but also in developed countries like the United States of America The spread of the disease originating from Wuhan in China is evenly distributed throughout the world Surabaya, as one of... |
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Additional time series features for preciseness improvement of LSTM-based COVID-19 spread forecasting model
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| The COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly since 2019. The worldwide uncontrollable outbreak has caused health and economic damage. Multiple deep learning predictable models have been proposed to forecast COVID-19 spread that can help monitor the situation. To improve preciseness of predicted results, we propose multiple... |
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Short-term forecasts and long-term mitigation evaluations for the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province, China
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| As an emerging infectious disease, the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has developed into a global pandemic. During the initial spreading of the virus in China, we demonstrated the ensemble Kalman filter performed well as a short-term predictor of the daily cases reported in Wuhan City. Second, we used an individua... |
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