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Title: Bandwidth selection for kernel estimation in mixed multi-dimensional spaces
Abstract: Kernel estimation techniques, such as mean shift, suffer from one major drawback: the kernel bandwidth selection. The bandwidth can be fixed for all the data set or can vary at each points. Automatic bandwidth selection becomes a real challenge in case of multidimensional heterogeneous features. This paper presents a solution to this problem. It is an extension of which was based on the fundamental property of normal distributions regarding the bias of the normalized density gradient. The selection is done iteratively for each type of features, by looking for the stability of local bandwidth estimates across a predefined range of bandwidths. A pseudo balloon mean shift filtering and partitioning are introduced. The validity of the method is demonstrated in the context of color image segmentation based on a 5-dimensional space.
Title: Nonparametric estimation for L\'evy processes from low-frequency observations
Abstract: We suppose that a L\'evy process is observed at discrete time points. A rather general construction of minimum-distance estimators is shown to give consistent estimators of the L\'evy-Khinchine characteristics as the number of observations tends to infinity, keeping the observation distance fixed. For a specific $C^2$-criterion this estimator is rate-optimal. The connection with deconvolution and inverse problems is explained. A key step in the proof is a uniform control on the deviations of the empirical characteristic function on the whole real line.
Title: Uniform limit laws of the logarithm for nonparametric estimators of the regression function in presence of censored data
Abstract: In this paper, we establish uniform-in-bandwidth limit laws of the logarithm for nonparametric Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighted (I.P.C.W.) estimators of the multivariate regression function under random censorship. A similar result is deduced for estimators of the conditional distribution function. The uniform-in-bandwidth consistency for estimators of the conditional density and the conditional hazard rate functions are also derived from our main result. Moreover, the logarithm laws we establish are shown to yield almost sure simultaneous asymptotic confidence bands for the functions we consider. Examples of confidence bands obtained from simulated data are displayed.
Title: Toward Psycho-robots
Abstract: We try to perform geometrization of psychology by representing mental states, <<ideas>>, by points of a metric space, <<mental space>>. Evolution of ideas is described by dynamical systems in metric mental space. We apply the mental space approach for modeling of flows of unconscious and conscious information in the human brain. In a series of models, Models 1-4, we consider cognitive systems with increasing complexity of psychological behavior determined by structure of flows of ideas. Since our models are in fact models of the AI-type, one immediately recognizes that they can be used for creation of AI-systems, which we call psycho-robots, exhibiting important elements of human psyche. Creation of such psycho-robots may be useful improvement of domestic robots. At the moment domestic robots are merely simple working devices (e.g. vacuum cleaners or lawn mowers) . However, in future one can expect demand in systems which be able not only perform simple work tasks, but would have elements of human self-developing psyche. Such AI-psyche could play an important role both in relations between psycho-robots and their owners as well as between psycho-robots. Since the presence of a huge numbers of psycho-complexes is an essential characteristic of human psychology, it would be interesting to model them in the AI-framework.
Title: Adjusted Viterbi training for hidden Markov models
Abstract: To estimate the emission parameters in hidden Markov models one commonly uses the EM algorithm or its variation. Our primary motivation, however, is the Philips speech recognition system wherein the EM algorithm is replaced by the Viterbi training algorithm. Viterbi training is faster and computationally less involved than EM, but it is also biased and need not even be consistent. We propose an alternative to the Viterbi training -- adjusted Viterbi training -- that has the same order of computational complexity as Viterbi training but gives more accurate estimators. Elsewhere, we studied the adjusted Viterbi training for a special case of mixtures, supporting the theory by simulations. This paper proves the adjusted Viterbi training to be also possible for more general hidden Markov models.
Title: Bootstrapping Deep Lexical Resources: Resources for Courses
Abstract: We propose a range of deep lexical acquisition methods which make use of morphological, syntactic and ontological language resources to model word similarity and bootstrap from a seed lexicon. The different methods are deployed in learning lexical items for a precision grammar, and shown to each have strengths and weaknesses over different word classes. A particular focus of this paper is the relative accessibility of different language resource types, and predicted ``bang for the buck'' associated with each in deep lexical acquisition applications.
Title: Learning for Dynamic Bidding in Cognitive Radio Resources
Abstract: In this paper, we model the various wireless users in a cognitive radio network as a collection of selfish, autonomous agents that strategically interact in order to acquire the dynamically available spectrum opportunities. Our main focus is on developing solutions for wireless users to successfully compete with each other for the limited and time-varying spectrum opportunities, given the experienced dynamics in the wireless network. We categorize these dynamics into two types: one is the disturbance due to the environment (e.g. wireless channel conditions, source traffic characteristics, etc.) and the other is the impact caused by competing users. To analyze the interactions among users given the environment disturbance, we propose a general stochastic framework for modeling how the competition among users for spectrum opportunities evolves over time. At each stage of the dynamic resource allocation, a central spectrum moderator auctions the available resources and the users strategically bid for the required resources. The joint bid actions affect the resource allocation and hence, the rewards and future strategies of all users. Based on the observed resource allocation and corresponding rewards from previous allocations, we propose a best response learning algorithm that can be deployed by wireless users to improve their bidding policy at each stage. The simulation results show that by deploying the proposed best response learning algorithm, the wireless users can significantly improve their own performance in terms of both the packet loss rate and the incurred cost for the used resources.
Title: Autoencoder, Principal Component Analysis and Support Vector Regression for Data Imputation
Abstract: Data collection often results in records that have missing values or variables. This investigation compares 3 different data imputation models and identifies their merits by using accuracy measures. Autoencoder Neural Networks, Principal components and Support Vector regression are used for prediction and combined with a genetic algorithm to then impute missing variables. The use of PCA improves the overall performance of the autoencoder network while the use of support vector regression shows promising potential for future investigation. Accuracies of up to 97.4 % on imputation of some of the variables were achieved.
Title: Supervised Machine Learning with a Novel Kernel Density Estimator
Abstract: In recent years, kernel density estimation has been exploited by computer scientists to model machine learning problems. The kernel density estimation based approaches are of interest due to the low time complexity of either O(n) or O(n*log(n)) for constructing a classifier, where n is the number of sampling instances. Concerning design of kernel density estimators, one essential issue is how fast the pointwise mean square error (MSE) and/or the integrated mean square error (IMSE) diminish as the number of sampling instances increases. In this article, it is shown that with the proposed kernel function it is feasible to make the pointwise MSE of the density estimator converge at O(n^-2/3) regardless of the dimension of the vector space, provided that the probability density function at the point of interest meets certain conditions.
Title: A note on calculating autocovariances of periodic ARMA models
Abstract: An analytically simple and tractable formula for the start-up autocovariances of periodic ARMA (PARMA) models is provided.
Title: Bayesian Classification and Regression with High Dimensional Features
Abstract: This thesis responds to the challenges of using a large number, such as thousands, of features in regression and classification problems. There are two situations where such high dimensional features arise. One is when high dimensional measurements are available, for example, gene expression data produced by microarray techniques. For computational or other reasons, people may select only a small subset of features when modelling such data, by looking at how relevant the features are to predicting the response, based on some measure such as correlation with the response in the training data. Although it is used very commonly, this procedure will make the response appear more predictable than it actually is. In Chapter 2, we propose a Bayesian method to avoid this selection bias, with application to naive Bayes models and mixture models. High dimensional features also arise when we consider high-order interactions. The number of parameters will increase exponentially with the order considered. In Chapter 3, we propose a method for compressing a group of parameters into a single one, by exploiting the fact that many predictor variables derived from high-order interactions have the same values for all the training cases. The number of compressed parameters may have converged before considering the highest possible order. We apply this compression method to logistic sequence prediction models and logistic classification models. We use both simulated data and real data to test our methods in both chapters.
Title: On Birnbaum-Saunders Inference
Abstract: The Birnbaum-Saunders distribution, also known as the fatigue-life distribution, is frequently used in reliability studies. We obtain adjustments to the Birnbaum--Saunders profile likelihood function. The modified versions of the likelihood function were obtained for both the shape and scale parameters, i.e., we take the shape parameter to be of interest and the scale parameter to be of nuisance, and then consider the situation in which the interest lies in performing inference on the scale parameter with the shape parameter entering the modeling in nuisance fashion. Modified profile maximum likelihood estimators are obtained by maximizing the corresponding adjusted likelihood functions. We present numerical evidence on the finite sample behavior of the different estimators and associated likelihood ratio tests. The results favor the adjusted estimators and tests we propose. A novel aspect of the profile likelihood adjustments obtained in this paper is that they yield improved point estimators and tests. The two profile likelihood adjustments work well when inference is made on the shape parameter, and one of them displays superior behavior when it comes to performing hypothesis testing inference on the scale parameter. Two empirical applications are briefly presented.
Title: Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of periodic GARCH processes
Abstract: This paper establishes the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) for a GARCH process with periodically time-varying parameters. We first give a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a strictly periodically stationary solution for the periodic GARCH (P-GARCH) equation. As a result, it is shown that the moment of some positive order of the P-GARCH solution is finite, under which we prove the strong consistency and asymptotic normality (CAN) of the QMLE without any condition on the moments of the underlying process.
Title: Simulated Annealing: Rigorous finite-time guarantees for optimization on continuous domains
Abstract: Simulated annealing is a popular method for approaching the solution of a global optimization problem. Existing results on its performance apply to discrete combinatorial optimization where the optimization variables can assume only a finite set of possible values. We introduce a new general formulation of simulated annealing which allows one to guarantee finite-time performance in the optimization of functions of continuous variables. The results hold universally for any optimization problem on a bounded domain and establish a connection between simulated annealing and up-to-date theory of convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods on continuous domains. This work is inspired by the concept of finite-time learning with known accuracy and confidence developed in statistical learning theory.
Title: Two polynomial representations of experimental design
Abstract: In the context of algebraic statistics an experimental design is described by a set of polynomials called the design ideal. This, in turn, is generated by finite sets of polynomials. Two types of generating sets are mostly used in the literature: Groebner bases and indicator functions. We briefly describe them both, how they are used in the analysis and planning of a design and how to switch between them. Examples include fractions of full factorial designs and designs for mixture experiments.
Title: Supervised learning on graphs of spatio-temporal similarity in satellite image sequences
Abstract: High resolution satellite image sequences are multidimensional signals composed of spatio-temporal patterns associated to numerous and various phenomena. Bayesian methods have been previously proposed in (Heas and Datcu, 2005) to code the information contained in satellite image sequences in a graph representation using Bayesian methods. Based on such a representation, this paper further presents a supervised learning methodology of semantics associated to spatio-temporal patterns occurring in satellite image sequences. It enables the recognition and the probabilistic retrieval of similar events. Indeed, graphs are attached to statistical models for spatio-temporal processes, which at their turn describe physical changes in the observed scene. Therefore, we adjust a parametric model evaluating similarity types between graph patterns in order to represent user-specific semantics attached to spatio-temporal phenomena. The learning step is performed by the incremental definition of similarity types via user-provided spatio-temporal pattern examples attached to positive or/and negative semantics. From these examples, probabilities are inferred using a Bayesian network and a Dirichlet model. This enables to links user interest to a specific similarity model between graph patterns. According to the current state of learning, semantic posterior probabilities are updated for all possible graph patterns so that similar spatio-temporal phenomena can be recognized and retrieved from the image sequence. Few experiments performed on a multi-spectral SPOT image sequence illustrate the proposed spatio-temporal recognition method.
Title: Low Dimensional Embedding of fMRI datasets
Abstract: We propose a novel method to embed a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) dataset in a low-dimensional space. The embedding optimally preserves the local functional coupling between fMRI time series and provides a low-dimensional coordinate system for detecting activated voxels. To compute the embedding, we build a graph of functionally connected voxels. We use the commute time, instead of the geodesic distance, to measure functional distances on the graph. Because the commute time can be computed directly from the eigenvectors of (a symmetric version) the graph probability transition matrix, we use these eigenvectors to embed the dataset in low dimensions. After clustering the datasets in low dimensions, coherent structures emerge that can be easily interpreted. We performed an extensive evaluation of our method comparing it to linear and nonlinear techniques using synthetic datasets and in vivo datasets. We analyzed datasets from the EBC competition obtained with subjects interacting in an urban virtual reality environment. Our exploratory approach is able to detect independently visual areas (V1/V2, V5/MT), auditory areas, and language areas. Our method can be used to analyze fMRI collected during ``natural stimuli''.
Title: A quantile-copula approach to conditional density estimation
Abstract: We present a new non-parametric estimator of the conditional density of the kernel type. It is based on an efficient transformation of the data by quantile transform. By use of the copula representation, it turns out to have a remarkable product form. We study its asymptotic properties and compare its bias and variance to competitors based on nonparametric regression.
Title: Algebraic causality: Bayes nets and beyond
Abstract: The relationship between algebraic geometry and the inferential framework of the Bayesian Networks with hidden variables has now been fruitfully explored and exploited by a number of authors. More recently the algebraic formulation of Causal Bayesian Networks has also been investigated in this context. After reviewing these newer relationships, we proceed to demonstrate that many of the ideas embodied in the concept of a ``causal model'' can be more generally expressed directly in terms of a partial order and a family of polynomial maps. The more conventional graphical constructions, when available, remain a powerful tool.
Title: The causal manipulation of chain event graphs
Abstract: Discrete Bayesian Networks have been very successful as a framework both for inference and for expressing certain causal hypotheses. In this paper we present a class of graphical models called the chain event graph (CEG) models, that generalises the class of discrete BN models. It provides a flexible and expressive framework for representing and analysing the implications of causal hypotheses, expressed in terms of the effects of a manipulation of the generating underlying system. We prove that, as for a BN, identifiability analyses of causal effects can be performed through examining the topology of the CEG graph, leading to theorems analogous to the back-door theorem for the BN.
Title: Mutual information for the selection of relevant variables in spectrometric nonlinear modelling
Abstract: Data from spectrophotometers form vectors of a large number of exploitable variables. Building quantitative models using these variables most often requires using a smaller set of variables than the initial one. Indeed, a too large number of input variables to a model results in a too large number of parameters, leading to overfitting and poor generalization abilities. In this paper, we suggest the use of the mutual information measure to select variables from the initial set. The mutual information measures the information content in input variables with respect to the model output, without making any assumption on the model that will be used; it is thus suitable for nonlinear modelling. In addition, it leads to the selection of variables among the initial set, and not to linear or nonlinear combinations of them. Without decreasing the model performances compared to other variable projection methods, it allows therefore a greater interpretability of the results.
Title: Fast Algorithm and Implementation of Dissimilarity Self-Organizing Maps
Abstract: In many real world applications, data cannot be accurately represented by vectors. In those situations, one possible solution is to rely on dissimilarity measures that enable sensible comparison between observations. Kohonen's Self-Organizing Map (SOM) has been adapted to data described only through their dissimilarity matrix. This algorithm provides both non linear projection and clustering of non vector data. Unfortunately, the algorithm suffers from a high cost that makes it quite difficult to use with voluminous data sets. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm that provides an important reduction of the theoretical cost of the dissimilarity SOM without changing its outcome (the results are exactly the same as the ones obtained with the original algorithm). Moreover, we introduce implementation methods that result in very short running times. Improvements deduced from the theoretical cost model are validated on simulated and real world data (a word list clustering problem). We also demonstrate that the proposed implementation methods reduce by a factor up to 3 the running time of the fast algorithm over a standard implementation.
Title: A Bayesian Approach to Network Modularity
Abstract: We present an efficient, principled, and interpretable technique for inferring module assignments and for identifying the optimal number of modules in a given network. We show how several existing methods for finding modules can be described as variant, special, or limiting cases of our work, and how the method overcomes the resolution limit problem, accurately recovering the true number of modules. Our approach is based on Bayesian methods for model selection which have been used with success for almost a century, implemented using a variational technique developed only in the past decade. We apply the technique to synthetic and real networks and outline how the method naturally allows selection among competing models.
Title: Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Latent Class Models For Contingency Table Data
Abstract: Statistical models with latent structure have a history going back to the 1950s and have seen widespread use in the social sciences and, more recently, in computational biology and in machine learning. Here we study the basic latent class model proposed originally by the sociologist Paul F. Lazarfeld for categorical variables, and we explain its geometric structure. We draw parallels between the statistical and geometric properties of latent class models and we illustrate geometrically the causes of many problems associated with maximum likelihood estimation and related statistical inference. In particular, we focus on issues of non-identifiability and determination of the model dimension, of maximization of the likelihood function and on the effect of symmetric data. We illustrate these phenomena with a variety of synthetic and real-life tables, of different dimension and complexity. Much of the motivation for this work stems from the "100 Swiss Francs" problem, which we introduce and describe in detail.
Title: Locally Adaptive Nonparametric Binary Regression
Abstract: A nonparametric and locally adaptive Bayesian estimator is proposed for estimating a binary regression. Flexibility is obtained by modeling the binary regression as a mixture of probit regressions with the argument of each probit regression having a thin plate spline prior with its own smoothing parameter and with the mixture weights depending on the covariates. The estimator is compared to a single spline estimator and to a recently proposed locally adaptive estimator. The methodology is illustrated by applying it to both simulated and real examples.
Title: On The Density Estimation by Super-Parametric Method
Abstract: The super-parametric density estimators and its related algorism were suggested by Y. -S. Tsai et al [7]. The number of parameters is unlimited in the super- parametric estimators and it is a general theory in sense of unifying or connecting nonparametric and parametric estimators. Before applying to numerical examples, we can not give any comment of the estimators. In this paper, we will focus on the implementation, the computer programming, of the algorism and strategies of choosing window functions. B-splines, Bezier splines and covering windows are studied as well. According to the criterion of the convergence conditions for Parzen window, the number of the window functions shall be, roughly, proportional to the number of samples and so is the number of the variables. Since the algorism is designed for solving the optimization of likelihood function, there will be a set of nonlinear equations with a large number of variables. The results show that algorism suggested by Y. -S. Tsai is very powerful and effective in the sense of mathematics, that is, the iteration procedures converge and the rates of convergence are very fast. Also, the numerical results of different window functions show that the approach of super-parametric density estimators has ushered a new era of statistics.
Title: Une adaptation des cartes auto-organisatrices pour des donn\'ees d\'ecrites par un tableau de dissimilarit\'es
Abstract: Many data analysis methods cannot be applied to data that are not represented by a fixed number of real values, whereas most of real world observations are not readily available in such a format. Vector based data analysis methods have therefore to be adapted in order to be used with non standard complex data. A flexible and general solution for this adaptation is to use a (dis)similarity measure. Indeed, thanks to expert knowledge on the studied data, it is generally possible to define a measure that can be used to make pairwise comparison between observations. General data analysis methods are then obtained by adapting existing methods to (dis)similarity matrices. In this article, we propose an adaptation of Kohonen's Self Organizing Map (SOM) to (dis)similarity data. The proposed algorithm is an adapted version of the vector based batch SOM. The method is validated on real world data: we provide an analysis of the usage patterns of the web site of the Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et Automatique, constructed thanks to web log mining method.
Title: Self-organizing maps and symbolic data
Abstract: In data analysis new forms of complex data have to be considered like for example (symbolic data, functional data, web data, trees, SQL query and multimedia data, ...). In this context classical data analysis for knowledge discovery based on calculating the center of gravity can not be used because input are not $^p$ vectors. In this paper, we present an application on real world symbolic data using the self-organizing map. To this end, we propose an extension of the self-organizing map that can handle symbolic data.
Title: Fast Selection of Spectral Variables with B-Spline Compression
Abstract: The large number of spectral variables in most data sets encountered in spectral chemometrics often renders the prediction of a dependent variable uneasy. The number of variables hopefully can be reduced, by using either projection techniques or selection methods; the latter allow for the interpretation of the selected variables. Since the optimal approach of testing all possible subsets of variables with the prediction model is intractable, an incremental selection approach using a nonparametric statistics is a good option, as it avoids the computationally intensive use of the model itself. It has two drawbacks however: the number of groups of variables to test is still huge, and colinearities can make the results unstable. To overcome these limitations, this paper presents a method to select groups of spectral variables. It consists in a forward-backward procedure applied to the coefficients of a B-Spline representation of the spectra. The criterion used in the forward-backward procedure is the mutual information, allowing to find nonlinear dependencies between variables, on the contrary of the generally used correlation. The spline representation is used to get interpretability of the results, as groups of consecutive spectral variables will be selected. The experiments conducted on NIR spectra from fescue grass and diesel fuels show that the method provides clearly identified groups of selected variables, making interpretation easy, while keeping a low computational load. The prediction performances obtained using the selected coefficients are higher than those obtained by the same method applied directly to the original variables and similar to those obtained using traditional models, although using significantly less spectral variables.
Title: Resampling methods for parameter-free and robust feature selection with mutual information
Abstract: Combining the mutual information criterion with a forward feature selection strategy offers a good trade-off between optimality of the selected feature subset and computation time. However, it requires to set the parameter(s) of the mutual information estimator and to determine when to halt the forward procedure. These two choices are difficult to make because, as the dimensionality of the subset increases, the estimation of the mutual information becomes less and less reliable. This paper proposes to use resampling methods, a K-fold cross-validation and the permutation test, to address both issues. The resampling methods bring information about the variance of the estimator, information which can then be used to automatically set the parameter and to calculate a threshold to stop the forward procedure. The procedure is illustrated on a synthetic dataset as well as on real-world examples.
Title: 1953: An unrecognized summit in human genetic linkage analysis
Abstract: This paper summarizes and discusses the methodological research in human genetic linkage analysis, leading up to and following from the paper of C. A. B. Smith presented as a Royal Statistical Society discussion paper in 1953. This paper was given as the Fisher XXVII Memorial Lecture, in Cambridge, December 4, 2006.
Title: Estimating copula measure using ranks and subsampling: a simulation study
Abstract: We describe here a new method to estimate copula measure. From N observations of two variables X and Y, we draw a huge number m of subsamples (size n<N), and we compute the joint ranks in these subsamples. Then, for each bivariate rank (p,q) (0<p,q<n+1), we count the number of subsamples such that there exist an observation of the subsample with bivariate rank (p,q). This counting gives an estimate of the density of the copula. The simulation study shows that this method seems to gives a better than the usual kernel method. The main advantage of this new method is then we do not need to choose and justify the kernel. In exchange, we have to choose a subsample size: this is in fact a problem very similar to the bandwidth choice. We have then reduced the overall difficulty.
Title: Flexible least squares for temporal data mining and statistical arbitrage
Abstract: A number of recent emerging applications call for studying data streams, potentially infinite flows of information updated in real-time. When multiple co-evolving data streams are observed, an important task is to determine how these streams depend on each other, accounting for dynamic dependence patterns without imposing any restrictive probabilistic law governing this dependence. In this paper we argue that flexible least squares (FLS), a penalized version of ordinary least squares that accommodates for time-varying regression coefficients, can be deployed successfully in this context. Our motivating application is statistical arbitrage, an investment strategy that exploits patterns detected in financial data streams. We demonstrate that FLS is algebraically equivalent to the well-known Kalman filter equations, and take advantage of this equivalence to gain a better understanding of FLS and suggest a more efficient algorithm. Promising experimental results obtained from a FLS-based algorithmic trading system for the S&P 500 Futures Index are reported.