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Title: Entropy Concentration and the Empirical Coding Game
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Abstract: We give a characterization of Maximum Entropy/Minimum Relative Entropy inference by providing two `strong entropy concentration' theorems. These theorems unify and generalize Jaynes' `concentration phenomenon' and Van Campenhout and Cover's `conditional limit theorem'. The theorems characterize exactly in what sense a prior distribution Q conditioned on a given constraint, and the distribution P, minimizing the relative entropy D(P ||Q) over all distributions satisfying the constraint, are `close' to each other. We then apply our theorems to establish the relationship between entropy concentration and a game-theoretic characterization of Maximum Entropy Inference due to Topsoe and others.
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Title: A simulation study comparing likelihood and non-likelihood approaches in analyzing overdispersed count data
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Abstract: Overdispersed count data are modelled with likelihood and non-likelihood approaches. Likelihood approaches include the Poisson mixtures with three distributions, the gamma, the lognormal, and the inverse Gaussian distributions. Non-likelihood approaches include the robust sandwich estimator and quasilikelihood. In this simulation study, overdispersed count data were simulated under the Poisson mixtures with the gamma, the lognormal and the inverse Gaussian distributions, then analyzed with the five likelihood and non-likelihood approaches. Our results indicated that 1) when the count data are mildly overdispersed, there are virtually no differences in type I error rate, standard error of the main effect, and empirical power among the five methods; 2) when the count data are very overdispersed, none of these five approaches is robust to model misspecification as evaluated by type I error rate, standard error of the main effect, and empirical power. This simulation study raises caution on using non-likelihood method for analyzing very overdispered count data because of likely higher type I error and inappropriate power levels. Unlike non-likelihood approaches, likelihood approaches allow for statistical tests based on likelihood ratios and for checking model fit and provide basis for power and sample size calculations. When likelihood approaches are used, we suggest comparing likelihood values to select the appropriate parametric method for analyzing very overdispersed count data.
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Title: Variable Neighborhood Search for the University Lecturer-Student Assignment Problem
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Abstract: The paper presents a study of local search heuristics in general and variable neighborhood search in particular for the resolution of an assignment problem studied in the practical work of universities. Here, students have to be assigned to scientific topics which are proposed and supported by members of staff. The problem involves the optimization under given preferences of students which may be expressed when applying for certain topics. It is possible to observe that variable neighborhood search leads to superior results for the tested problem instances. One instance is taken from an actual case, while others have been generated based on the real world data to support the analysis with a deeper analysis. An extension of the problem has been formulated by integrating a second objective function that simultaneously balances the workload of the members of staff while maximizing utility of the students. The algorithmic approach has been prototypically implemented in a computer system. One important aspect in this context is the application of the research work to problems of other scientific institutions, and therefore the provision of decision support functionalities.
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Title: Applications of Universal Source Coding to Statistical Analysis of Time Series
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Abstract: We show how universal codes can be used for solving some of the most important statistical problems for time series. By definition, a universal code (or a universal lossless data compressor) can compress any sequence generated by a stationary and ergodic source asymptotically to the Shannon entropy, which, in turn, is the best achievable ratio for lossless data compressors. We consider finite-alphabet and real-valued time series and the following problems: estimation of the limiting probabilities for finite-alphabet time series and estimation of the density for real-valued time series, the on-line prediction, regression, classification (or problems with side information) for both types of the time series and the following problems of hypothesis testing: goodness-of-fit testing, or identity testing, and testing of serial independence. It is important to note that all problems are considered in the framework of classical mathematical statistics and, on the other hand, everyday methods of data compression (or archivers) can be used as a tool for the estimation and testing. It turns out, that quite often the suggested methods and tests are more powerful than known ones when they are applied in practice.
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Title: A New Framework of Multistage Estimation
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Abstract: In this paper, we have established a unified framework of multistage parameter estimation. We demonstrate that a wide variety of statistical problems such as fixed-sample-size interval estimation, point estimation with error control, bounded-width confidence intervals, interval estimation following hypothesis testing, construction of confidence sequences, can be cast into the general framework of constructing sequential random intervals with prescribed coverage probabilities. We have developed exact methods for the construction of such sequential random intervals in the context of multistage sampling. In particular, we have established inclusion principle and coverage tuning techniques to control and adjust the coverage probabilities of sequential random intervals. We have obtained concrete sampling schemes which are unprecedentedly efficient in terms of sampling effort as compared to existing procedures.
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Title: Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Success of the Nuclear Norm Heuristic for Rank Minimization
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Abstract: Minimizing the rank of a matrix subject to constraints is a challenging problem that arises in many applications in control theory, machine learning, and discrete geometry. This class of optimization problems, known as rank minimization, is NP-HARD, and for most practical problems there are no efficient algorithms that yield exact solutions. A popular heuristic algorithm replaces the rank function with the nuclear norm--equal to the sum of the singular values--of the decision variable. In this paper, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition that quantifies when this heuristic successfully finds the minimum rank solution of a linear constraint set. We additionally provide a probability distribution over instances of the affine rank minimization problem such that instances sampled from this distribution satisfy our conditions for success with overwhelming probability provided the number of constraints is appropriately large. Finally, we give empirical evidence that these probabilistic bounds provide accurate predictions of the heuristic's performance in non-asymptotic scenarios.
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Title: Predictive Hypothesis Identification
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Abstract: While statistics focusses on hypothesis testing and on estimating (properties of) the true sampling distribution, in machine learning the performance of learning algorithms on future data is the primary issue. In this paper we bridge the gap with a general principle (PHI) that identifies hypotheses with best predictive performance. This includes predictive point and interval estimation, simple and composite hypothesis testing, (mixture) model selection, and others as special cases. For concrete instantiations we will recover well-known methods, variations thereof, and new ones. PHI nicely justifies, reconciles, and blends (a reparametrization invariant variation of) MAP, ML, MDL, and moment estimation. One particular feature of PHI is that it can genuinely deal with nested hypotheses.
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Title: Exploring Large Feature Spaces with Hierarchical Multiple Kernel Learning
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Abstract: For supervised and unsupervised learning, positive definite kernels allow to use large and potentially infinite dimensional feature spaces with a computational cost that only depends on the number of observations. This is usually done through the penalization of predictor functions by Euclidean or Hilbertian norms. In this paper, we explore penalizing by sparsity-inducing norms such as the l1-norm or the block l1-norm. We assume that the kernel decomposes into a large sum of individual basis kernels which can be embedded in a directed acyclic graph; we show that it is then possible to perform kernel selection through a hierarchical multiple kernel learning framework, in polynomial time in the number of selected kernels. This framework is naturally applied to non linear variable selection; our extensive simulations on synthetic datasets and datasets from the UCI repository show that efficiently exploring the large feature space through sparsity-inducing norms leads to state-of-the-art predictive performance.
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Title: When is there a representer theorem? Vector versus matrix regularizers
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Abstract: We consider a general class of regularization methods which learn a vector of parameters on the basis of linear measurements. It is well known that if the regularizer is a nondecreasing function of the inner product then the learned vector is a linear combination of the input data. This result, known as the \em representer theorem, is at the basis of kernel-based methods in machine learning. In this paper, we prove the necessity of the above condition, thereby completing the characterization of kernel methods based on regularization. We further extend our analysis to regularization methods which learn a matrix, a problem which is motivated by the application to multi-task learning. In this context, we study a more general representer theorem, which holds for a larger class of regularizers. We provide a necessary and sufficient condition for these class of matrix regularizers and highlight them with some concrete examples of practical importance. Our analysis uses basic principles from matrix theory, especially the useful notion of matrix nondecreasing function.
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Title: ECOLANG - Communications Language for Ecological Simulations Network
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Abstract: This document describes the communication language used in one multiagent system environment for ecological simulations, based on EcoDynamo simulator application linked with several intelligent agents and visualisation applications, and extends the initial definition of the language. The agents actions and perceptions are translated into messages exchanged with the simulator application and other agents. The concepts and definitions used follow the BNF notation (Backus et al. 1960) and is inspired in the Coach Unilang language (Reis and Lau 2002).
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Title: Agent-based Ecological Model Calibration - on the Edge of a New Approach
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Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to present a new approach to ecological model calibration -- an agent-based software. This agent works on three stages: 1- It builds a matrix that synthesizes the inter-variable relationships; 2- It analyses the steady-state sensitivity of different variables to different parameters; 3- It runs the model iteratively and measures model lack of fit, adequacy and reliability. Stage 3 continues until some convergence criteria are attained. At each iteration, the agent knows from stages 1 and 2, which parameters are most likely to produce the desired shift on predicted results.
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Title: A Regularized Method for Selecting Nested Groups of Relevant Genes from Microarray Data
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Abstract: Gene expression analysis aims at identifying the genes able to accurately predict biological parameters like, for example, disease subtyping or progression. While accurate prediction can be achieved by means of many different techniques, gene identification, due to gene correlation and the limited number of available samples, is a much more elusive problem. Small changes in the expression values often produce different gene lists, and solutions which are both sparse and stable are difficult to obtain. We propose a two-stage regularization method able to learn linear models characterized by a high prediction performance. By varying a suitable parameter these linear models allow to trade sparsity for the inclusion of correlated genes and to produce gene lists which are almost perfectly nested. Experimental results on synthetic and microarray data confirm the interesting properties of the proposed method and its potential as a starting point for further biological investigations
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Title: Automatic Identification and Data Extraction from 2-Dimensional Plots in Digital Documents
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Abstract: Most search engines index the textual content of documents in digital libraries. However, scholarly articles frequently report important findings in figures for visual impact and the contents of these figures are not indexed. These contents are often invaluable to the researcher in various fields, for the purposes of direct comparison with their own work. Therefore, searching for figures and extracting figure data are important problems. To the best of our knowledge, there exists no tool to automatically extract data from figures in digital documents. If we can extract data from these images automatically and store them in a database, an end-user can query and combine data from multiple digital documents simultaneously and efficiently. We propose a framework based on image analysis and machine learning to extract information from 2-D plot images and store them in a database. The proposed algorithm identifies a 2-D plot and extracts the axis labels, legend and the data points from the 2-D plot. We also segregate overlapping shapes that correspond to different data points. We demonstrate performance of individual algorithms, using a combination of generated and real-life images.
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Title: Asymptotic tail properties of the distributions in the class of dispersion models
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Abstract: The class of dispersion models introduced by J\orgensen (1997b) covers many known distributions such as the normal, Student t, gamma, inverse Gaussian, hyperbola, von-Mises, among others. We study the small dispersion asymptotic (J\orgensen, 1987b) behavior of the probability density functions of dispersion models which satisfy the uniformly convergent saddlepoint approximation. Our results extend those obtained by Finner et al. (2008).
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Title: The distribution of Pearson residuals in generalized linear models
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Abstract: In general, the distribution of residuals cannot be obtained explicitly. We give an asymptotic formula for the density of Pearson residuals in continuous generalized linear models corrected to order $n^-1$, where $n$ is the sample size. We define corrected Pearson residuals for these models that, to this order of approximation, have exactly the same distribution of the true Pearson residuals. Applications for important generalized linear models are provided and simulation results for a gamma model illustrate the usefulness of the corrected Pearson residuals.
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Title: Explicit expressions for moments of the beta Weibull distribution
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Abstract: The beta Weibull distribution was introduced by Famoye et al. (2005) and studied by these authors. However, they do not give explicit expressions for the moments. We now derive explicit closed form expressions for the cumulative distribution function and for the moments of this distribution. We also give an asymptotic expansion for the moment generating function. Further, we discuss maximum likelihood estimation and provide formulae for the elements of the Fisher information matrix. We also demonstrate the usefulness of this distribution on a real data set.
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Title: Some results for beta Fr\'echet distribution
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Abstract: Nadarajah and Gupta (2004) introduced the beta Fr\'echet (BF) distribution, which is a generalization of the exponentiated Fr\'echet (EF) and Fr\'echet distributions, and obtained the probability density and cumulative distribution functions. However, they do not investigated its moments and the order statistics. In this paper the BF density function and the density function of the order statistics are expressed as linear combinations of Fr\'echet density functions. This is important to obtain some mathematical properties of the BF distribution in terms of the corresponding properties of the Fr\'echet distribution. We derive explicit expansions for the ordinary moments and L-moments and obtain the order statistics and their moments. We also discuss maximum likelihood estimation and calculate the information matrix which was not known. The information matrix is easily numerically determined. Two applications to real data sets are given to illustrate the potentiality of this distribution.
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Title: Improved estimators for a general class of beta regression models
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Abstract: In this paper we consider an extension of the beta regression model proposed by Ferrari and Cribari-Neto (2004). We extend their model in two different ways, first, we let the regression structure be nonlinear, second, we allow a regression structure for the precision parameter, moreover, this regression structure may also be nonlinear. Generally, the beta regression is useful to situations where the response is restricted to the standard unit interval and the regression structure involves regressors and unknown parameters. We derive general formulae for second-order biases of the maximum likelihood estimators and use them to define bias-corrected estimators. Our formulae generalizes the results obtained by Ospina et al. (2006), and are easily implemented by means of supplementary weighted linear regressions. We also compare these bias-corrected estimators with three different estimators which are also bias-free to the second-order, one analytical and the other two based on bootstrap methods. These estimators are compared by simulation. We present an empirical application.
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Title: The Beta Generalized Exponential Distribution
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Abstract: We introduce the beta generalized exponential distribution that includes the beta exponential and generalized exponential distributions as special cases. We provide a comprehensive mathematical treatment of this distribution. We derive the moment generating function and the $r$th moment thus generalizing some results in the literature. Expressions for the density, moment generating function and $r$th moment of the order statistics also are obtained. We discuss estimation of the parameters by maximum likelihood and provide the information matrix. We observe in one application to real data set that this model is quite flexible and can be used quite effectively in analyzing positive data in place of the beta exponential and generalized exponential distributions.
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Title: A Generalization of the Exponential-Poisson Distribution
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Abstract: The two-parameter distribution known as exponential-Poisson (EP) distribution, which has decreasing failure rate, was introduced by Kus (2007). In this paper we generalize the EP distribution and show that the failure rate of the new distribution can be decreasing or increasing. The failure rate can also be upside-down bathtub shaped. A comprehensive mathematical treatment of the new distribution is provided. We provide closed-form expressions for the density, cumulative distribution, survival and failure rate functions; we also obtain the density of the $i$th order statistic. We derive the $r$th raw moment of the new distribution and also the moments of order statistics. Moreover, we discuss estimation by maximum likelihood and obtain an expression for Fisher's information matrix. Furthermore, expressions for the R\'enyi and Shannon entropies are given and estimation of the stress-strength parameter is discussed. Applications using two real data sets are presented.
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Title: Randomized Distributed Configuration Management of Wireless Networks: Multi-layer Markov Random Fields and Near-Optimality
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Abstract: Distributed configuration management is imperative for wireless infrastructureless networks where each node adjusts locally its physical and logical configuration through information exchange with neighbors. Two issues remain open. The first is the optimality. The second is the complexity. We study these issues through modeling, analysis, and randomized distributed algorithms. Modeling defines the optimality. We first derive a global probabilistic model for a network configuration which characterizes jointly the statistical spatial dependence of a physical- and a logical-configuration. We then show that a local model which approximates the global model is a two-layer Markov Random Field or a random bond model. The complexity of the local model is the communication range among nodes. The local model is near-optimal when the approximation error to the global model is within a given error bound. We analyze the trade-off between an approximation error and complexity, and derive sufficient conditions on the near-optimality of the local model. We validate the model, the analysis and the randomized distributed algorithms also through simulation.
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Title: Low congestion online routing and an improved mistake bound for online prediction of graph labeling
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Abstract: In this paper, we show a connection between a certain online low-congestion routing problem and an online prediction of graph labeling. More specifically, we prove that if there exists a routing scheme that guarantees a congestion of $\alpha$ on any edge, there exists an online prediction algorithm with mistake bound $\alpha$ times the cut size, which is the size of the cut induced by the label partitioning of graph vertices. With previous known bound of $O(\log n)$ for $\alpha$ for the routing problem on trees with $n$ vertices, we obtain an improved prediction algorithm for graphs with high effective resistance. In contrast to previous approaches that move the graph problem into problems in vector space using graph Laplacian and rely on the analysis of the perceptron algorithm, our proof are purely combinatorial. Further more, our approach directly generalizes to the case where labels are not binary.
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Title: Clustered Multi-Task Learning: A Convex Formulation
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Abstract: In multi-task learning several related tasks are considered simultaneously, with the hope that by an appropriate sharing of information across tasks, each task may benefit from the others. In the context of learning linear functions for supervised classification or regression, this can be achieved by including a priori information about the weight vectors associated with the tasks, and how they are expected to be related to each other. In this paper, we assume that tasks are clustered into groups, which are unknown beforehand, and that tasks within a group have similar weight vectors. We design a new spectral norm that encodes this a priori assumption, without the prior knowledge of the partition of tasks into groups, resulting in a new convex optimization formulation for multi-task learning. We show in simulations on synthetic examples and on the IEDB MHC-I binding dataset, that our approach outperforms well-known convex methods for multi-task learning, as well as related non convex methods dedicated to the same problem.
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Title: A randomized algorithm for principal component analysis
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Abstract: Principal component analysis (PCA) requires the computation of a low-rank approximation to a matrix containing the data being analyzed. In many applications of PCA, the best possible accuracy of any rank-deficient approximation is at most a few digits (measured in the spectral norm, relative to the spectral norm of the matrix being approximated). In such circumstances, efficient algorithms have not come with guarantees of good accuracy, unless one or both dimensions of the matrix being approximated are small. We describe an efficient algorithm for the low-rank approximation of matrices that produces accuracy very close to the best possible, for matrices of arbitrary sizes. We illustrate our theoretical results via several numerical examples.
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Title: Coupling Control Variates for Markov Chain Monte Carlo
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Abstract: We show that Markov couplings can be used to improve the accuracy of Markov chain Monte Carlo calculations in some situations where the steady-state probability distribution is not explicitly known. The technique generalizes the notion of control variates from classical Monte Carlo integration. We illustrate it using two models of nonequilibrium transport.
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Title: Electricity Demand and Energy Consumption Management System
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Abstract: This project describes the electricity demand and energy consumption management system and its application to Southern Peru smelter. It is composed of an hourly demand-forecasting module and of a simulation component for a plant electrical system. The first module was done using dynamic neural networks with backpropagation training algorithm; it is used to predict the electric power demanded every hour, with an error percentage below of 1%. This information allows efficient management of energy peak demands before this happen, distributing the raise of electric load to other hours or improving those equipments that increase the demand. The simulation module is based in advanced estimation techniques, such as: parametric estimation, neural network modeling, statistic regression and previously developed models, which simulates the electric behavior of the smelter plant. These modules facilitate electricity demand and consumption proper planning, because they allow knowing the behavior of the hourly demand and the consumption patterns of the plant, including the bill components, but also energy deficiencies and opportunities for improvement, based on analysis of information about equipments, processes and production plans, as well as maintenance programs. Finally the results of its application in Southern Peru smelter are presented.
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Title: Normalized Information Distance
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Abstract: The normalized information distance is a universal distance measure for objects of all kinds. It is based on Kolmogorov complexity and thus uncomputable, but there are ways to utilize it. First, compression algorithms can be used to approximate the Kolmogorov complexity if the objects have a string representation. Second, for names and abstract concepts, page count statistics from the World Wide Web can be used. These practical realizations of the normalized information distance can then be applied to machine learning tasks, expecially clustering, to perform feature-free and parameter-free data mining. This chapter discusses the theoretical foundations of the normalized information distance and both practical realizations. It presents numerous examples of successful real-world applications based on these distance measures, ranging from bioinformatics to music clustering to machine translation.
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Title: The Weibull-Geometric distribution
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Abstract: In this paper we introduce, for the first time, the Weibull-Geometric distribution which generalizes the exponential-geometric distribution proposed by Adamidis and Loukas (1998). The hazard function of the last distribution is monotone decreasing but the hazard function of the new distribution can take more general forms. Unlike the Weibull distribution, the proposed distribution is useful for modeling unimodal failure rates. We derive the cumulative distribution and hazard functions, the density of the order statistics and calculate expressions for its moments and for the moments of the order statistics. We give expressions for the R\'enyi and Shannon entropies. The maximum likelihood estimation procedure is discussed and an algorithm EM (Dempster et al., 1977; McLachlan and Krishnan, 1997) is provided for estimating the parameters. We obtain the information matrix and discuss inference. Applications to real data sets are given to show the flexibility and potentiality of the proposed distribution.
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Title: Algorithmic information theory
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Abstract: We introduce algorithmic information theory, also known as the theory of Kolmogorov complexity. We explain the main concepts of this quantitative approach to defining `information'. We discuss the extent to which Kolmogorov's and Shannon's information theory have a common purpose, and where they are fundamentally different. We indicate how recent developments within the theory allow one to formally distinguish between `structural' (meaningful) and `random' information as measured by the Kolmogorov structure function, which leads to a mathematical formalization of Occam's razor in inductive inference. We end by discussing some of the philosophical implications of the theory.
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Title: Predicting Abnormal Returns From News Using Text Classification
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Abstract: We show how text from news articles can be used to predict intraday price movements of financial assets using support vector machines. Multiple kernel learning is used to combine equity returns with text as predictive features to increase classification performance and we develop an analytic center cutting plane method to solve the kernel learning problem efficiently. We observe that while the direction of returns is not predictable using either text or returns, their size is, with text features producing significantly better performance than historical returns alone.
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Title: Stability Selection
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Abstract: Estimation of structure, such as in variable selection, graphical modelling or cluster analysis is notoriously difficult, especially for high-dimensional data. We introduce stability selection. It is based on subsampling in combination with (high-dimensional) selection algorithms. As such, the method is extremely general and has a very wide range of applicability. Stability selection provides finite sample control for some error rates of false discoveries and hence a transparent principle to choose a proper amount of regularisation for structure estimation. Variable selection and structure estimation improve markedly for a range of selection methods if stability selection is applied. We prove for randomised Lasso that stability selection will be variable selection consistent even if the necessary conditions needed for consistency of the original Lasso method are violated. We demonstrate stability selection for variable selection and Gaussian graphical modelling, using real and simulated data.
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Title: Finding links and initiators: a graph reconstruction problem
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Abstract: Consider a 0-1 observation matrix M, where rows correspond to entities and columns correspond to signals; a value of 1 (or 0) in cell (i,j) of M indicates that signal j has been observed (or not observed) in entity i. Given such a matrix we study the problem of inferring the underlying directed links between entities (rows) and finding which entries in the matrix are initiators. We formally define this problem and propose an MCMC framework for estimating the links and the initiators given the matrix of observations M. We also show how this framework can be extended to incorporate a temporal aspect; instead of considering a single observation matrix M we consider a sequence of observation matrices M1,..., Mt over time. We show the connection between our problem and several problems studied in the field of social-network analysis. We apply our method to paleontological and ecological data and show that our algorithms work well in practice and give reasonable results.
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Title: Kinetostatic Performance of a Planar Parallel Mechanism with Variable Actuation
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Abstract: This paper deals with a new planar parallel mechanism with variable actuation and its kinetostatic performance. A drawback of parallel mechanisms is the non homogeneity of kinetostatic performance within their workspace. The common approach to solve this problem is the introduction of actuation redundancy, that involves force control algorithms. Another approach, highlighted in this paper, is to select the actuated joint in each limb with regard to the pose of the end-effector. First, the architecture of the mechanism and two kinetostatic performance indices are described. Then, the actuating modes of the mechanism are compared.
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Title: Supervised Dictionary Learning
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