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will-trump-be-disqualified-from-the
Will Trump be disqualified from the presidency on insurrection grounds
null
1,667,856,997,570
1,730,869,140,000
1,731,044,026,793
NO
0.011217
7,777.66835
vGDZ2AuSkfB66QQs7ZZD
will-a-general-european-unionmercos
Will a general European Union-Mercosur trade agreement be concluded before Dec, 31st 2024?
null
1,667,695,718,654
1,735,614,000,000
1,735,675,723,953
NO
0.02355
8,373.672991
kPSc4kMonXJRiwznWupg
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-afb68187d4cc
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election have a minimum net worth greater then $1 million USD as reported by OpenSecerts?
null
1,667,507,577,043
1,731,652,304,531
1,731,652,304,531
YES
0.855417
515.70172
1pSCVBwxjPwzb0CIL67m
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-27437a631ce1
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be married at the time of election
null
1,667,506,713,115
1,733,253,325,894
1,733,253,325,894
YES
0.989389
6,116.995658
i6BaaKScM0zNnrIPxF5p
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-c1d838ebd643
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election posses a postgraduate degree at the time of election
null
1,667,503,048,101
1,731,198,631,785
1,731,198,631,785
NO
0.042698
988.383893
MRGBwOHZyEzZ3DvWqWM3
will-twitter-ipo-in-2024
Will Twitter IPO in 2024?
null
1,667,236,022,108
1,735,579,353,857
1,735,579,353,857
NO
0.01
11,829.717976
EvaDecG6x04e0no9fBGl
if-the-2024-presidential-race-is-ka
If the 2024 presidential race is Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump, then Kamala Harris will win
null
1,666,828,507,119
1,730,825,999,000
1,730,942,576,117
NO
0.502691
2,325.69329
V7VaF44xJZbgUYraeLGg
will-former-republican-governor-was
Will former Republican governor Washington Gov. Dan Evans become a centenarian?
null
1,666,666,744,717
1,726,951,648,357
1,726,951,648,357
NO
0.01
1,747.766414
oiDJH0f1JVpAN8KTeSk0
will-scientists-create-artificial-b
Will scientists create artificial blood to be used on any patient by the end of 2024?
null
1,666,228,219,469
1,735,648,173,508
1,735,648,173,508
NO
0.010119
8,745.640919
H2ErC4AbupNA0KUHaYX4
will-bitcoin-mining-be-regulated-in
Will Bitcoin mining be regulated in the US by the end of 2024?
null
1,666,227,760,442
1,735,581,125,008
1,735,581,125,008
NO
0.01
13,383.601226
BGDAicOXsGhsIo7NO1kF
austria-will-thomas-schmid-be-closi
Austria: Will Thomas Schmid be closing a plea deal with the prosecutors? ("Kronzeugenstatus")
null
1,666,205,347,199
1,725,141,540,000
1,732,788,804,704
YES
0.857165
612.156873
n2pjMMF0CRNt9EdBmZuI
will-donald-j-trump-ever-be-elected
Will Donald J. Trump ever be elected President? (again)
null
1,665,951,509,485
1,730,936,236,541
1,730,936,236,541
YES
0.984733
7,824.857264
lV8btPZreOyL28suoNmM
will-eddie-izzard-be-elected-to-par
Will Eddie Izzard be elected to Parliament?
null
1,665,549,139,326
1,729,384,058,069
1,729,384,058,069
NO
0.03
2,477.07492
mpzDZijQxJFtlgkaQfZG
will-marjorie-taylor-greene-run-for
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene run for President in 2024?
null
1,665,544,456,154
1,729,976,743,113
1,729,976,743,113
NO
0.02
2,233.453011
GF5faOJmqdB1ajongLHr
will-marco-rubio-run-for-president
Will Marco Rubio run for President in 2024?
null
1,665,540,054,161
1,729,976,700,281
1,729,976,700,281
NO
0.02
16,310.043926
ZPAnV0cFwgevbNt7eeIo
will-the-creators-of-any-iteration
Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?
null
1,664,791,313,131
1,728,479,443,470
1,728,479,443,470
YES
0.99
15,921.975271
ouqQmZ5e8nzuKgDhpqvF
will-the-california-remove-voter-ap
Will the California Remove Voter Approval Requirement for Public Low-Rent Housing Projects Amendment (2024) pass?
null
1,664,726,023,021
1,728,707,185,957
1,728,707,185,957
NO
0.43
52.069588
XR5JhLjnAM85Z8mPwnBV
will-there-be-5-or-more-faithless-e
Will there be 5 or more faithless electors in the 2024 US presidential election?
null
1,664,463,392,955
1,735,632,219,244
1,735,632,219,244
NO
0.010418
12,891.961349
RUabTM4FfThaIog7UjJ6
will-sota-on-math-in-sep-2024-utili
Will SOTA on MATH in Sep 2024 utilize a hard-coded search/amplification procedure?
null
1,664,378,957,758
1,727,755,140,000
1,727,821,057,418
NO
0.42
4,362.784921
hgUJ8z5S5VLI5cGf08ML
will-manifold-have-a-realmoney-mark
Will Manifold have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?
null
1,664,231,921,842
1,726,363,941,755
1,730,940,235,440
NO
0.063331
16,373.875862
VXVYi542EjcshXQjyNxN
will-mortgage-rates-fall-below-5-an-33692bf3e8b8
Will mortgage rates fall below 5% anytime before the end of 2024?
null
1,663,975,673,876
1,735,686,012,175
1,735,686,012,175
NO
0.01
12,828.102646
4DPl5xemMxRWklD9QIRT
will-on-average-more-than-500-peopl
Will on average more than 500 people a year be evicted from the UK in Rwanda-style resettlement deals, before the next election?
null
1,663,601,998,433
1,733,949,492,223
1,733,949,492,223
NO
0.01
7,595.627578
Nkqi27rqeyTGIGCbX6Gi
will-the-uk-government-create-law-o
Will the UK government create laws or large incentives towards working in offices, before the next election?
null
1,663,601,873,773
1,733,401,164,895
1,733,401,164,895
NO
0.018926
2,554.697683
CtYCT0jMb79Yi2OvIgsS
will-trump-run-and-not-win
Will Trump run and not win?
null
1,663,425,414,506
1,730,936,230,224
1,730,936,230,224
NO
0.01
21,883.292778
OOP50Vt7C6ARgi2RgMa8
will-trump-be-indicted-run-and-win
Will Trump be indicted, run, and win?
null
1,663,425,140,535
1,730,936,200,049
1,730,936,200,049
YES
0.99
9,124.899095
akoaxu6i4WV4iSwbDqmo
will-the-first-attempt-to-catch-a-s
Will the first attempt to catch a starship booster with Mechazilla result in the booster exploding
null
1,663,260,061,027
1,729,188,367,175
1,729,188,367,175
NO
0.01
21,484.227822
i5ewGmfvRfFKq5j7mWtc
will-there-be-another-pandemic-befo-6001af28e5ae
Will there be another pandemic before 2025?
null
1,663,102,675,521
1,735,620,669,539
1,735,620,669,539
NO
0.01
11,181.370694
62radchO7O3shl2Y89xY
will-any-us-supreme-court-justice-g
Will any US Supreme Court Justice go through a formal impeachment process by the end of 2024?
null
1,663,102,359,321
1,735,581,140,386
1,735,581,140,386
NO
0.01
6,961.245304
4HNJtd3z1i4fKRwmt1aC
will-someone-other-than-biden-harri
Will someone other than Biden, Harris, Buttigieg, or Newsom receive the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
null
1,662,847,907,284
1,730,786,340,000
1,730,897,878,242
NO
0.009135
84,075.624214
tLQyqnAe0Z24e7gKzy2k
will-kamala-harris-lose-the-2024-pr
Will Kamala Harris LOSE the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats?
null
1,662,772,706,646
1,730,896,565,667
1,730,896,565,667
YES
0.998713
12,059.83963
e9ZaMThrZV1IZLhFnVxP
will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-pre
Will Kamala Harris WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats?
null
1,662,772,656,420
1,730,896,598,773
1,730,896,598,773
NO
0.010079
17,924.304546
0nlYTzXipsZMfMqq5U4D
will-there-be-51-or-more-us-states
Will there be 51 or more U.S. states by the 2024 Presidential Election?
null
1,662,095,431,063
1,730,879,940,000
1,730,906,788,207
NO
0.010396
5,866.372426
IRSUUxp0OA8oMuQjnflG
will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-pre-4d8ef5e74437
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? (RW version)
null
1,661,381,975,345
1,733,032,740,000
1,733,032,921,832
NO
0.010002
26,806.773918
ylIXgDeMDCYkltnmAlpZ
will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-pre
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?
null
1,661,381,842,885
1,730,933,153,178
1,730,933,153,178
NO
0.010769
316,943.941589
YVqerycJne35zgC1Vro2
will-nina-turner-run-for-president
Will Nina Turner run for president in 2024?
null
1,661,372,627,275
1,729,025,922,898
1,729,025,922,898
NO
0.01
5,492.217477
HQvRxWKFrScLYSy15AQ9
will-justin-amash-run-for-president
Will Justin Amash run for President in 2024?
null
1,661,297,099,688
1,729,976,692,143
1,729,976,692,143
NO
0.01
3,778.485917
9cuzSSGtmp3pB3DgxONW
will-bernie-sanders-run-for-preside
Will Bernie Sanders run for President in 2024?
null
1,661,293,502,604
1,729,976,684,778
1,729,976,684,778
NO
0.01
8,489.711263
O8qtPVi3e5t6ebMyeQRu
will-data-from-the-james-webb-space
Will data from the James Webb Space Telescope disprove the Big Bang?
null
1,660,568,810,174
1,734,929,940,000
1,735,065,148,680
NO
0.025649
8,062.930258
jRiRHEZ4VDVhm8ynv51D
will-donald-trump-be-eligible-to-ru
Will Donald Trump be eligible to run for president in 2024?
null
1,660,332,254,535
1,730,869,140,000
1,731,003,384,058
YES
0.986642
9,393.204632
8bFIILiIEvIwyAanEI9F
conditional-on-donald-trump-being-i
Conditional on Donald Trump being indicted before the 2024 presidential election, will he win said election?
null
1,660,226,806,186
1,730,786,340,000
1,730,903,558,246
YES
0.509004
8,807.959426
CrRQqwCHpI4c6bivM4GO
will-kalshi-have-a-realmoney-market
Will Kalshi have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?
null
1,659,680,372,303
1,728,668,060,042
1,728,668,060,042
YES
0.99
1,843,531.923544
VNzUuywR0KQI3Zw5Zmgk
will-trump-receive-at-least-60-mill
Will Trump receive at least 60 million votes?
null
1,659,571,109,134
1,731,695,066,255
1,731,695,066,255
YES
0.99
32,235.791696
1hXgZx3iJDuEwbIAqVT5
what-is-the-risk-free-interest-rate
What is the Risk Free Interest Rate on Manifold Markets until Election Day 2024?
null
1,659,354,790,901
1,730,919,941,249
1,730,919,941,249
NO
0.009928
149,776.60449
zCFjmTnlpiAGBbWjYQjF
will-there-be-a-robust-third-party
Will there be a robust third party movement in America that impacts the 2024 Presidential race?
null
1,659,041,624,460
1,731,613,927,901
1,731,613,927,901
NO
0.057919
14,266.882359
kSMUyZEWlsKjA41gLy8t
will-winner-of-the-2024-presidentia-6a49986bfd71
Will winner of the 2024 Presidential election be a proponent of 2020 election fraud theories?
null
1,658,847,402,305
1,731,090,584,329
1,731,090,584,329
YES
0.945638
3,508.135476
zJswumDJHZJ6qfc4uTDI
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-799138703e51
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be either equal to or greater then 165 cm in height?
null
1,658,847,258,409
1,731,090,553,088
1,731,090,553,088
YES
0.99
3,107.360035
QHW1P6dHa3bxvY88V3C0
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-20645f46f6a3
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be either equal to or greater then 182 cm in height?
null
1,658,847,083,203
1,731,090,735,385
1,731,090,735,385
YES
0.99
13,718.800147
XAej3RwDTXagXd9Y5TsT
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-a7458cd40409
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be born pre 1960
null
1,658,767,435,267
1,731,652,321,635
1,731,652,321,635
YES
0.99
12,050.613833
xWZEXEaho5TKluf6Qhms
will-winner-of-the-2024-presidentia
Will winner of the 2024 Presidential election self-report as being vaccinated for COVID-19
null
1,658,766,956,101
1,731,091,163,722
1,731,091,163,722
YES
0.99
11,695.127934
8yrXjPx3RYtq84AxuJOG
will-a-us-state-legislature-refuse
Will a US state legislature refuse to recognise the popular vote winner in the state in the 2024 Presidential Election?
null
1,657,099,431,127
1,735,280,509,522
1,735,280,509,522
NO
0.024811
7,526.093003
m4PZ1ChlcfgGeXShoxYz
will-bitcoin-reach-10k-before-it-re
Will Bitcoin reach $10k before it reaches $100k?
null
1,655,484,641,862
1,733,452,565,781
1,733,452,565,781
NO
0.009217
44,761.814267
CrD4PISBN1H99VrHcknZ
conditional-on-being-nominated-by-t
Conditional on being nominated by the Republican party, will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
null
1,655,442,690,409
1,731,036,897,279
1,731,036,897,279
YES
0.989988
21,236.71002
2N12olMC9YgSRj7M4JBE
will-the-next-edition-of-games-in-s
Will the next edition of games in season 2 of Squid Game take place in a different country?
null
1,655,321,241,936
1,735,240,400,580
1,735,240,400,580
NO
0.01
11,752.398407
IOc89ZVDOeGQAKrxBBfV
stormlight-archive-will-qnyvane-bec-5d1669b29fda
Stormlight Archive - Will [Qnyvane] become the Vessel of either (inclusive) of the Shards [Ubabe] or [Bqvhz] in Era 1?
null
1,655,320,828,845
1,734,372,385,950
1,734,372,385,950
YES
0.919005
2,670.326925
XtQih9PRIQZJSZP96DJG
will-hwang-junho-still-be-alive-whe
Will Hwang Jun-Ho still be alive when "Squid Game" returns for season 2?
null
1,655,320,088,049
1,733,100,027,733
1,733,100,027,733
YES
0.99
9,391.620463
Tx9a1HiZ66t1WLiNuCul
if-trump-is-elected-president-in-20
If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he have won the popular vote?
null
1,654,546,322,137
1,730,913,204,586
1,730,913,204,586
YES
0.978952
187,976.880618
0FAJAfWknPeJY2B27NOS
will-the-next-us-president-to-be-in
Will the next US president to be inaugurated win the popular vote?
null
1,653,409,633,757
1,732,932,638,644
1,732,932,638,644
YES
0.99
17,497.223016
fNhfJ7tAzmatmM7slWOL
will-538s-2024-presidential-electio
Will any of 538's 2024 Presidential Election models change by more than 10 percentage points, start to finish?
null
1,652,905,940,644
1,730,869,140,000
1,730,869,312,986
NO
0.789395
200.090381
9XNB48DCranqKs2lx0dt
will-biden-announce-mass-student-lo
Will Biden announce mass student loan forgiveness during his first presidential term?
null
1,651,488,190,810
1,730,811,540,000
1,731,699,406,800
NO
0.041044
3,004.005523
V3ATbasExreIKbrY0bt8
joe-biden-will-step-down-as-preside
Joe Biden will step down as president before the 2024 presidential election results.
null
1,650,809,824,434
1,733,253,345,400
1,733,253,345,400
NO
0.009372
4,847.548973
1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM
will-jimmy-carter-become-a-centenar
Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?
null
1,650,320,437,629
1,727,766,000,000
1,727,798,886,104
YES
1
5,052,702.675077
ZVfI3pXc4gLdh7GXwtNv
will-levy-rozman-gothamchess-become
Will Levy Rozman (GothamChess) become a certified GM by the end of 2024?
null
1,649,364,450,011
1,733,115,540,000
1,733,980,234,317
NO
0.02353
2,679.24033
aNbn9YBmbozzNDeu50RH
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-10126fe153d6
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be a self-described socialist
null
1,647,979,258,825
1,731,090,668,853
1,731,090,668,853
NO
0.01
9,918.205458
YlYt66WxkeZgHgxm6Sq8
will-a-prior-or-current-congress-pe
Will a prior or current Congress person, a white house/cabinet official/high ranking Government official, or a high ranking national party(DNC or RNC) official win the 2024 election.
null
1,647,975,842,470
1,731,614,168,832
1,731,614,168,832
YES
0.985644
5,759.864233
VnkYJbdun2nhMlGNhPED
will-the-united-states-elect-its-fi
Will the United States elect it's first LGBTQ+ President in 2024
null
1,647,974,379,299
1,731,090,654,178
1,731,090,654,178
NO
0.01
4,783.177342
KLC57yIaQ6Rj6La1rGyy
will-the-united-state-elect-its-fir
Will the United State elect it's first woman President in 2024
null
1,647,551,269,071
1,731,652,344,290
1,731,652,344,290
NO
0.01051
12,199.860294
roaiUgvr0F1XZC2oUpca
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-3563a1248720
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be White?
null
1,647,441,318,315
1,731,090,519,589
1,731,090,519,589
YES
0.990122
10,894.611622
27lFeQhJrN199gBJ6wGF
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be born post 1980
null
1,647,437,932,690
1,733,253,289,245
1,733,253,289,245
NO
0.01
4,572.836367
JRzyleybZUTR8GHXs7ug
will-either-joe-biden-or-donald-tru
Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump be elected President in 2024?
null
1,646,597,653,548
1,730,879,940,000
1,730,913,742,703
YES
0.978165
1,211,543.548651
U5rW8rhQ0Ubz4WgkHRhk
will-andrew-yang-run-for-president
Will Andrew Yang run for President in 2024?
null
1,645,567,467,785
1,730,851,200,000
1,730,853,563,992
NO
0.0104
14,383.025044
rZSX556sOqfreUkwWTtA
will-the-losing-candidate-in-the-20
Will the losing candidate in the 2024 presidential election refuse to concede defeat?
null
1,645,218,450,813
1,730,782,800,000
1,732,947,137,346
NO
0.428088
6,799.491029
5qI3Q6NpxPgPyw4Gk1wE
will-elon-musk-run-for-president-in
Will Elon Musk run for president in 2024?
null
1,645,160,688,854
1,730,752,819,405
1,730,752,819,405
NO
0.01
10,192.134457
IjqF5KXVxSWUtsmKcnBF
will-a-democrat-win-the-white-house
Will a Democrat win the White House in 2024?
null
1,644,821,629,903
1,730,935,833,271
1,730,935,833,271
NO
0.01
29,653.405208
tlOBpptrUOJI6Jkjr2Y6
will-at-least-10-world-cities-have
Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?
null
1,644,739,447,251
1,735,686,000,000
1,735,687,444,813
YES
0.876785
106,932.193318
7zZQAXsGlypLixghpSIb
will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an
Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic medal (any class) in any women's game category in 2024?
null
1,642,983,503,843
1,725,249,599,000
1,727,887,817,731
NO
0.01
19,901.619296
8eM9t6wpy733Gwmr5aKI
if-kamala-harris-becomes-the-democr
If Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic nominee, will she win the 2024 election?
null
1,642,268,585,570
1,730,678,399,000
1,730,914,630,100
NO
0.506378
20,406.686659
Ua0kzjbcBjwSySES4hYt
will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-p
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
null
1,642,180,968,333
1,730,916,967,569
1,730,920,852,491
YES
0.989896
1,577,883.019984
QJslgIQGPJx3xpZjJRc2
will-the-value-of-bitcoin-pass-100k
Will the value of Bitcoin pass 100k USD by the end of 2024?
null
1,642,047,822,269
1,733,519,720,974
1,733,519,720,974
YES
0.99
48,662.686734
BWbzDnWJMQv8eNo2GrM4
jen-psaki-will-win-the-2024-united
Jen Psaki Will Win the 2024 United States Presidential Election
null
1,642,040,100,316
1,730,940,356,348
1,730,940,356,348
NO
0.01
3,253.363805
TBa0KxERQuCNEpyKcwKx
tulsi-gabbard-will-win-the-2024-uni
Tulsi Gabbard Will Win the 2024 United States Presidential Election
null
1,642,040,061,441
1,732,518,039,579
1,732,518,039,579
NO
0.011656
3,829.808517
dbqDp4mV1NkG8IfRZNbV
hillary-clinton-signals-in-any-way-
Hillary Clinton signals in any way she might run for president in 2024
null
1,641,003,914,971
1,732,374,704,631
1,732,374,704,631
NO
0.009924
10,996.65042
JEBkPNuPE4eDWKul2CBe
will-the-runnerup-in-the-2024-us-pr
Will the runner-up in the 2024 US Presidential Election accept their defeat by Dec 31, 2024?
null
1,640,703,303,623
1,730,931,473,254
1,730,931,473,254
YES
0.99
20,260.78185