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zyqkl6tgn3h
false
gVSlIZ8HxnSaBeCLyhIaQ4F5TVw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "iLJseJfTc4XDPY5v3w37XTEhsXf1", "label": "YemisiAjetumobi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "me...
DAC
LoynXB6m8GMfsHqxY8JX
public
contract
1,716,366,092,563
will-real-madrid-win-the-spanish-la
DaAdCh
https://firebasestorage.…909-4a3973c6b0af
Will Real Madrid win the Spanish Laliga?
null
null
null
null
null
47y1s4ae3fw
false
nbj8r8H3C6UL2IesTDuEaXZuNQv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "so far more than a million people evacuated safely, and more space has been allocated, minimal civilian casualties in the Rafah operation.", ...
Carmel Hadar
9mkpts1kVKuIm7SOXE9B
public
contract
1,716,366,158,476
if-israel-invades-rafah-will-they-h
CarmelHadar
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6-PsNv0vfq1yMPjvNCpWTKm6Y9EbvtoTxK7WQ4nBc=s96-c
If Israel invades Rafah, will they have a reasonable plan for evacuating civilians from there?
null
null
null
null
null
e4jd2rwcpgo
false
gVSlIZ8HxnSaBeCLyhIaQ4F5TVw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "label": "MarcusAbramovitch", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "...
DAC
sqbpMp4eHITmk8gpoqXo
public
contract
1,716,366,307,147
will-erling-haaland-break-the-premi-a73802669778
DaAdCh
https://firebasestorage.…909-4a3973c6b0af
Will Erling Haaland break the Premier League goals record in the 23/24 season? (36 goals)
null
null
null
null
null
o1qks40jgpb
false
fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "h7zucfq66xv", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
t-bird
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,366,750,886
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
tbird
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
8lxf89qigk7
false
AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6je8hsazxd8", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Nat
ksrRtaaVIyBKYtUK8Y33
public
contract
1,716,367,058,250
will-spacex-deploy-any-starlink-sat
Nat
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c
Will SpaceX deploy any Starlink satellites using Starship in 2024?
xs5oheh61c
0.470489
1,375.097657
YES
null
zz5bqu93bss
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Cumming many times in many hours ", "type": "text" ...
Rana G
vK9bujGHVRqn4pMqGLaJ
public
contract
1,716,367,111,733
do-you-enjoy-gooning
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
Do you enjoy gooning?
bm7kqd8ox3q
null
null
null
null
k3fnowerpr
false
QbxJtPGXr5gGf7aC7emvK5fVFVG2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Naeifm0iqw9qRM0jEwxS", "label": "jonsimon", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
veritas delenda est
bWy57GWuo2ZHVWwDOivh
public
contract
1,716,367,248,986
will-gpt5-show-clear-signs-of-dimin
VDE
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1i7yB9B4NZqfasAgRdHbTOZ8ngtlP336JZhdqs=s96-c
Will GPT5 show clear signs of diminishing returns?
Naeifm0iqw9qRM0jEwxS
0.636465
128.212293
NO
null
7dkox4h5ds
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "r7zqfmpdw4", "label": "Khazar_Man_From_Turan", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ihor Kendiukhov
rRc5MgunumVnCFjN1CPj
public
contract
1,716,367,335,994
where-is-the-great-filter
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
Where is the Great Filter?
r7zqfmpdw4
null
100.688065
YES
4e8fe1e1651b
fuoblx474h8
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "k6lhtb7garb", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Ihor Kendiukhov
rRc5MgunumVnCFjN1CPj
public
contract
1,716,367,479,440
where-is-the-great-filter
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
Where is the Great Filter?
k6lhtb7garb
null
100.688065
YES
4e8fe1e1651b
s7enncv0g8
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This applies to almost everything: you're not invested enough to spend time and effort to achieve something because there is no immediate gratification...
Rana G
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,716,367,502,807
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
null
null
126.413694
YES
bda10a463922
bama9cpxhn
false
JkH8Q9cPPjg9T4dFcz8wTXlLioX2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I didn't know about this one", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content":...
Paulin
rQWRMAJEvGHCue7PHUbb
public
contract
1,716,367,649,876
where-will-the-next-generation-eu-g
Ppau
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyWiZZQIP_FPeOhyNxw7ekUac8H2iGP1RFFb2tR=s96-c
Where will the next generation EU gravitational wave telescope (Einstein telescope) be built?
null
null
null
null
null
5wbkmbyqe4c
false
rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This is an intentionally deceptive market title designed to mislead people into thinking that they’re betting on whether the next President will die wh...
Simon Grayson
QcS2GP6QnwbPTxcqL3su
public
contract
1,716,367,720,691
will-the-next-president-of-the-unit-d748870d920b
SimonGrayson
https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696
Will the next President of the United States die in a office?
null
null
null
null
null
la97roiz08
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ifovy6q619", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Ihor Kendiukhov
rRc5MgunumVnCFjN1CPj
public
contract
1,716,367,765,090
where-is-the-great-filter
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
Where is the Great Filter?
ifovy6q619
null
100.688065
YES
4e8fe1e1651b
ncyo34d7x99
false
HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5wbkmbyqe4c", "label": "SimonGrayson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Timothy Bandors
QcS2GP6QnwbPTxcqL3su
public
contract
1,716,367,791,483
will-the-next-president-of-the-unit-d748870d920b
TimothyBandors
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c
Will the next President of the United States die in a office?
5wbkmbyqe4c
0.249027
203.636482
YES
null
86j95xzbfci
false
9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "z8vc6e2010l", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Jan
rRc5MgunumVnCFjN1CPj
public
contract
1,716,367,804,379
where-is-the-great-filter
Jan53274
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c
Where is the Great Filter?
z8vc6e2010l
null
null
null
null
ewv441ir71a
false
rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "For wider bands and arbitrage opportunities:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, ...
Simon Grayson
mjro5YN3ZHqNYSOzwgMd
public
contract
1,716,368,057,525
what-day-will-trumps-hush-money-tri
SimonGrayson
https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696
What day will Trump's hush money trial get a verdict?
null
null
943.530654
YES
c15e6ded9440
fnw3ixzbdth
false
GLzpZPkoRWcZv7I1sbSGv9mPZlB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is there any criteria to define “mostly”?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
capy
tN6TLN23m7vnEiYZflBp
public
contract
1,716,368,330,102
will-the-first-agi-be-built-mostly
capybara
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinDoran%2F6rlhLww5NS.35?alt=media&token=c2bbf567-0a54-4425-9ebd-1cec295a7660
Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm?
null
null
null
null
null
epivzzq81ow
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lyhqh7dvgg", "label": "Mad", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Ihor Kendiukhov
WKccMXY8ApRiFcqBw7S7
public
contract
1,716,368,838,607
will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-e11b3ab4b5c7
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?
lyhqh7dvgg
0.25
19.234326
NO
null
89113f691hs
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8wauiqjdbzh", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Plasma Ballin'
PfCuB0VSA1Eogniymzb0
public
contract
1,716,369,904,002
rigged-gambling-game
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Rigged Gambling Game
xmglnlya2w
null
null
null
null
0ck1y0ny0d8h
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "aLcMG0Cj63WLil96xiNOksVffg12", "label": "TrickyDuck", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention...
Plasma Ballin'
PfCuB0VSA1Eogniymzb0
public
contract
1,716,369,925,069
rigged-gambling-game
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Rigged Gambling Game
null
null
null
null
null
mva3yyx5h2
false
ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1xtbnqlsfpe", "label": "draaglom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Craig Talbert
PuRCWFIi6gxMijOuRHPo
public
contract
1,716,370,776,036
will-the-international-criminal-cou-3572841109f7
CraigTalbert
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c
Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of 2024?
t1cfbybeib
0.673393
117.472562
NO
null
csowjkqxf7v
false
wafjm1hIwwRSzKmZd8s9MAH2qF32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Vb1fBC87qIhXjKwNT8I5QpcOWRO2", "label": "BDStraw", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Aditya Gupta
lfW5HskgnMY4YOjTQp2I
public
contract
1,716,371,192,029
cricket-will-virat-kohli-score-more
AdityaGupta4830
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbP2SEivBqEg1hTuRbZsvsjl3_Cp6D6eqx-U_XnxfQ=s96-c
Cricket: Will Virat Kohli score more runs than Shubman Gill in IPL 2024?
null
0.95781
7,646.128774
YES
null
rkfklmpxwtm
false
wafjm1hIwwRSzKmZd8s9MAH2qF32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Proof: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
Aditya Gupta
lfW5HskgnMY4YOjTQp2I
public
contract
1,716,371,247,191
cricket-will-virat-kohli-score-more
AdityaGupta4830
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbP2SEivBqEg1hTuRbZsvsjl3_Cp6D6eqx-U_XnxfQ=s96-c
Cricket: Will Virat Kohli score more runs than Shubman Gill in IPL 2024?
csowjkqxf7v
0.95781
7,646.128774
YES
null
7z7y3frp9lr
false
krCVG3NICjMBTShuh2qFBfxjJh53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Worth adding AMD?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tom Offer
C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw
public
contract
1,716,371,675,324
what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1
Tomoffer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYixst_qSqIc7yL9LzODpTkqwwZD_6YEFduz-Up=s96-c
What will be TIME Magazine's 100 most influential Companies of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
07gf7ianql1o
false
Or9iYF6aaVUdpXk0u92NcUu4Y6A3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "brfcc763hvg", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
abhimanyu
uHfjO7w9ENUc8avL3diV
public
contract
1,716,371,878,723
will-sensex-crash-if-the-bjp-fails
abhimanyu
https://firebasestorage.…ce7-6d8bf48e2f6c
Will SENSEX crash if the BJP fails to form a majority in the 2024 elections?
brfcc763hvg
null
722.407202
YES
e19cc9e32152
kzmocil3hc
false
UDtma0GdHvankZVH0RBQJI0HPcH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does ScarJo’s absolute murder of sama count? 😂😂😂", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" ...
James Dillard
WKccMXY8ApRiFcqBw7S7
public
contract
1,716,372,708,364
will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-e11b3ab4b5c7
jdilla
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgQ3DNbYEPlxgQPup0iq_AO-L4Z9__n3MX3MtqVpLw=s96-c
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
zv13kvp5evr
false
LRWC4p997NObPY7tN5b8vYfvdsH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "i63api7vnu", "label": "PeterMillerc030", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
becauseyoudo
QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ
public
contract
1,716,373,027,076
who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38
becauseyoudo
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbecauseyoudo%2F0GXbVCpNNX.bmp?alt=media&token=d5558412-2de1-47d7-ad36-a44a43748531
Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
fs47bjzx1e4
null
873.975922
YES
74d0a1d62039
h4pf536k8e
false
ZpCwr0h6XQMjdZhXZnWuToxNRQQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I voted no because I think that the court will take longer to discuss the case due to article 17 / principle of complementarity. ", "type": ...
Tom
4iDxt5SOffBcwFzB7x9C
public
contract
1,716,373,620,594
metaculus-before-july-1-2024-will-t
gpt4
https://firebasestorage.…919-b65f9e6cd15e
[Metaculus] Before July, will the ICC issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant or Halevi?
null
0.582201
97.064967
NO
null
2it81idiqfj
false
XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "We're up to 2758. Given that loans are now illegal, I'm going to close this market early by resolving the final (>3000) answer to NO. ", "typ...
Fion
pJMTtqtC0jI8R7VVJDoD
public
contract
1,716,373,829,545
how-much-will-i-make-in-loans-inter
Fion
https://firebasestorage.…c2e-6bc532e44aed
How much will I make in loans interest by 22nd December 2024?
null
null
10,034.434907
YES
41d3318d4147
ns32w5ab5yr
false
mReK53xvxAgQv3yHr0PIH4RygTi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Steve Acomb
7CGTIxU2SQDwkOPm4Nne
public
contract
1,716,374,057,972
will-i-graduate-from-rosehulman-bef
SteveAcomb
https://firebasestorage.…b0b-a1ffee97636c
Will I Graduate from Rose-Hulman before June 2024?
null
0.954402
577.673216
YES
null
rjlsvv0lwr
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "eRvSRM9NHDdbqdP2O2vsNXRzvko2", "label": "LernenmitLeo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Plasma Ballin'
PfCuB0VSA1Eogniymzb0
public
contract
1,716,374,246,030
rigged-gambling-game
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Rigged Gambling Game
null
null
null
null
null
77nj16xggbn
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "label": "IsaacKing", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
Plasma Ballin'
zILaZK8GFwptgARBuQ9C
public
contract
1,716,374,384,131
will-any-us-state-change-their-flag
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Will any US state change their flag in a manner consistent with the suggestions in CGP Grey's video before 2030?
null
0.953766
1,037.744299
YES
null
bpakhpg73
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is there a meta-market on whether the title of this market will be censored?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Plasma Ballin'
65d0D76BNpYYOO6BHJSc
public
contract
1,716,374,608,327
will-the-wikipedia-page-titled-nigg
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Will the Wikipedia page titled "Nigger" be renamed to "The N-Word" or otherwise censored before 2030?
null
0.144782
57.660433
NO
null
grj0sl5akc9
false
zssVPLqijpVK2ZUriKKznMW2mhS2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "f65vmujw9vd", "label": "benshindel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Punished Ten Shino
0GIBkffKG2YGu9XzCP65
public
contract
1,716,374,786,881
which-team-will-win-the-nba-finals-fd3163334bf5
TenShino
https://firebasestorage.…bf5-dc271bcac725
Which team will win the NBA Finals 2024?
f65vmujw9vd
null
5,134.580797
YES
ecc38ccc0fc6
5sg7196ygln
false
sICXNtXt2dZ14BnDqkmbVisozZu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "i think an election is quite likely now. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, ...
Jony
mCq2fHhPZcd34tpcgMEw
public
contract
1,716,374,841,763
uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd
Jony
https://firebasestorage.…32f-ac199fffc968
UK General Election - which month in 2024 will it take place?
null
null
2,195.716155
YES
7266785416d4
kn0a8s8itw
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "07gf7ianql1o", "label": "manyu", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bruno
uHfjO7w9ENUc8avL3diV
public
contract
1,716,375,106,819
will-sensex-crash-if-the-bjp-fails
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will SENSEX crash if the BJP fails to form a majority in the 2024 elections?
brfcc763hvg
null
null
null
null
jrrluqbbmxd
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0i6skw3lf7m", "label": "Stralor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bruno
ujNnzRHYudMJdBKxBpSw
public
contract
1,716,375,370,624
will-an-old-fart-fart-on-television
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will an old fart fart on television while campaigning (U.S. presidential candidate)?
514iow0almn
null
null
null
null
m7oem1m62g
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Good market.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
B2qGW4jtvUQTWPpVqKFg
public
contract
1,716,375,463,626
will-germany-give-up-paper-correspo
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will Germany give up paper correspondence before the technological singularity happens?
null
null
null
null
null
p9q7zdi8i2p
false
PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ministers have been told to attend cabinet at 4pm on pain of death. They ...
Noit
mCq2fHhPZcd34tpcgMEw
public
contract
1,716,375,658,625
uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd
Noit
https://firebasestorage.…735-191267a06d3d
UK General Election - which month in 2024 will it take place?
null
null
2,881.891671
YES
7266785416d4
y232xwgv4rd
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8ntNjtw3m7gJKwpf2nDGEvnpU6y1", "label": "Schneefackel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Rana G
vK9bujGHVRqn4pMqGLaJ
public
contract
1,716,375,707,926
do-you-enjoy-gooning
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
Do you enjoy gooning?
bm7kqd8ox3q
null
null
null
null
zpol0twexu
false
rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Simon Grayson
mCq2fHhPZcd34tpcgMEw
public
contract
1,716,375,710,455
uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd
SimonGrayson
https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696
UK General Election - which month in 2024 will it take place?
null
null
5,076.872411
YES
70d7a690f6d1
0mn75xu613x
false
G3LhSYHrymapMN91FqCFhteTKqQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "*Germans, clinging onto faxes* NIEMALS!!!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
GM
B2qGW4jtvUQTWPpVqKFg
public
contract
1,716,375,898,325
will-germany-give-up-paper-correspo
GtothaM
https://firebasestorage.…44d-e921c46e8707
Will Germany give up paper correspondence before the technological singularity happens?
null
null
null
null
null
gjc5qal9ma6
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "t1cfbybeib", "label": "draaglom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Shaked Koplewitz
PuRCWFIi6gxMijOuRHPo
public
contract
1,716,376,472,886
will-the-international-criminal-cou-3572841109f7
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of 2024?
t1cfbybeib
0.673393
13.06316
NO
null
gfbwk7nktkq
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Should settle as yes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ ...
Shaked Koplewitz
5ycL1cc8b99IM93fNtA4
public
contract
1,716,376,596,434
will-the-us-humanitarian-aid-pier-i
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Will the US humanitarian aid pier in the Mediterranean be attacked?
null
null
null
null
null
hmlk9aekvsr
false
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This should resolve to Donald Tusk", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Martin Modrák
zP0XGpLw2n3v4fVw8Jot
public
contract
1,716,377,038,376
who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-be41911682c0
MartinModrak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Poland after Morawiecki?
null
null
503.052555
YES
7c3b3783a463
cem2uyj1045
false
frBevxJ79zNClZg2d9H8m0gLLIW2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Looking into this market to see if anyone already applied, Kandiss Taylor is probably a flat earther, but she is ony GOP chair for the first congressio...
Mana
WeWqhkoTvUiUPCBwCQ3E
public
contract
1,716,377,283,645
will-a-flat-earther-be-elected-to-a
Mana
https://firebasestorage.…03a-956bf00f7280
Will a flat earther be elected to a state or federal office in the U.S. by the end of 2028?
null
null
null
null
null
m25n6ltxx4b
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I presume limit orders don't count unless they are filled.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content"...
Christopher Randles
OlQZe4z96uTPJJgpZkqy
public
contract
1,716,377,505,566
game-the-last-person-to-bet-on-this
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
[Game] The last person to bet on this receives 1000 Mana - Will the last trade be a Yes? [No Bots]
null
0.497844
393.875948
YES
null
ey100zdscp7
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Bruno
WDcNYIeRptPRqNK4VDYz
public
contract
1,716,377,680,721
would-nicolas-maduro-win-the-venezu
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Would Nicolás Maduro Win the Venezuelan presidential election on the 28 of July 2024
null
null
null
null
null
ffi54ritboc
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Good market.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
19ZUJRMCPHXcoA13DerE
public
contract
1,716,377,859,560
-will-the-save-icon-still-be-a-flop
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
💾 Will the "Save" icon still be a floppy disk by 2100?
null
null
null
null
null
64cet4qv4ku
false
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "With only Montana left, this can resolve, right?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Martin Modrák
RIyeL7xiMbfFoG4JJCi9
public
contract
1,716,378,644,259
will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-at-least-t
MartinModrak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win at least two states in the Republican primaries?
null
0.00399
11.578358
NO
null
y2s1tp3wtj
false
6ShGJ6V5aPWY0BrQAH2e17zd6js1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "See my related market about whether he will be in a cell: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content"...
Xela
1uOFS8AhZxCHKdmZrwD9
public
contract
1,716,378,741,049
acx-2024-will-donald-trump-be-convi
Xelad102c
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ2sHOfkvdMSnkN5YtN6O9ArXTEVdhR1LJvkrlyUbFVhsaDEg=s96-c
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? [ACX 2024]
null
null
null
null
null
8k97fjtgc9d
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
RemNi
upQ9fjzk1L0OIhz7vpMI
public
contract
1,716,378,869,189
will-myanmars-junta-be-overthrown-b
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will Myanmar's junta be overthrown by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
59iq0yhm7xj
false
PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Some are making the argument that this is just an incoming reshuffle, in which case a hedge would be to bet on ", "type": "text" }, ...
Noit
mCq2fHhPZcd34tpcgMEw
public
contract
1,716,378,906,293
uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd
Noit
https://firebasestorage.…735-191267a06d3d
UK General Election - which month in 2024 will it take place?
null
null
2,881.891671
YES
7266785416d4
mboxuzhur79
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's looking increasingly likely that the rebels are going to overthrow the Myanmar government if China doesn't intervene.", "type": "text" ...
RemNi
cWaAIQ4HZRiP6y9j0WXw
public
contract
1,716,379,297,857
will-china-intervene-militarily-in
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will China intervene militarily in Myanmar before 2030?
null
0.414777
77.707156
YES
null
yqlcsjtmix
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "o1qks40jgpb", "label": "tbird", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,379,298,236
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
xtfr7cuifhc
false
8ntNjtw3m7gJKwpf2nDGEvnpU6y1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "y232xwgv4rd", "label": "RanaG", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Schneefackel
vK9bujGHVRqn4pMqGLaJ
public
contract
1,716,379,344,355
do-you-enjoy-gooning
Schneefackel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaIkLPQddNdum_OH2iW5S1nKX7q6NQ8X1v6csyu=s96-c
Do you enjoy gooning?
bm7kqd8ox3q
null
null
null
null
4xqgqzi6876
false
NuHwhn6zEFaGrZakbtiqPqMB0cJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cthzz543rgl", "label": "Mirek", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
sbares
Ks1y55ba9o1RaAsoPTuL
public
contract
1,716,379,367,672
will-denmark-legalize-high-tch-cann
sbares
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxzkvyIz-LOJPQwSdbXHkM-F-In2wj3gxsEipRrEw=s96-c
Will Denmark legalize high TCH cannabis by the end of 2025
cthzz543rgl
0.234337
251.181004
NO
null
phzraaslwbs
false
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "As of today, there are 7: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
Martin Modrák
dgquKq853fNJhlVW69J5
public
contract
1,716,379,402,963
arxiv-will-have-at-least-10-papers-1a318ab60a20
MartinModrak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
Arxiv will have at least 10 papers mentioning LK-99 or LK99 published in 2024
null
0.773619
60.638613
YES
null
2slvnhkhsv7
false
rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "59iq0yhm7xj", "label": "Noit", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Simon Grayson
mCq2fHhPZcd34tpcgMEw
public
contract
1,716,379,466,293
uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd
SimonGrayson
https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696
UK General Election - which month in 2024 will it take place?
59iq0yhm7xj
null
5,076.872411
YES
70d7a690f6d1
nzd42hd3p7k
false
s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dbe4yq6hgzi", "label": "JoshuaStevens", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Quantum Gambler
1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM
public
contract
1,716,379,490,265
will-jimmy-carter-become-a-centenar
Mirek
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055
Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?
dbe4yq6hgzi
0.55
91,679.296234
NO
null
cid0y2gxj2f
false
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Do you think more evidence is needed to resolve N/A (because the LK-99 is false)?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragrap...
Martin Modrák
pbIx9cdlLvL6T9ivveMU
public
contract
1,716,379,509,384
conditional-on-both-the-aoh1996-and
MartinModrak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
Conditional on both the AOH1996 and LK99 papers being real, was AI a critical part of either of their developments?
null
0.134902
150.069924
NO
null
gubu3455i5e
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "89113f691hs", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
PfCuB0VSA1Eogniymzb0
public
contract
1,716,379,518,302
rigged-gambling-game
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Rigged Gambling Game
xmglnlya2w
0.507207
9.639394
NO
null
z0i39xek7u
false
0XU8ppCgFMduidHnt6Lo8OmAjkf1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sam Altman is a habitual liar and should be fired again.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "...
Seo Sanghyeon
0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX
public
contract
1,716,379,542,235
will-the-openai-board-fire-sam-altm
SanghyeonSeo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfk8pEYlfSft1e7_O9jcXxymjE4hqjrIj-0xJ8l44ff9DY=s96-c
Will the OpenAI board fire Sam Altman again in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
9zuy8nk624r
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Created a version of this for \"before 2026\":", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, ...
RemNi
upQ9fjzk1L0OIhz7vpMI
public
contract
1,716,379,556,303
will-myanmars-junta-be-overthrown-b
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will Myanmar's junta be overthrown by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
g8sinsdxvki
false
fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "yqlcsjtmix", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
t-bird
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,379,647,862
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
tbird
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
xjog4chqh4l
false
0XU8ppCgFMduidHnt6Lo8OmAjkf1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "See also ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "3PB3VZbyPG6S4bEVTyVc", "label": "/c5c9/wi...
Seo Sanghyeon
0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX
public
contract
1,716,379,683,915
will-the-openai-board-fire-sam-altm
SanghyeonSeo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfk8pEYlfSft1e7_O9jcXxymjE4hqjrIj-0xJ8l44ff9DY=s96-c
Will the OpenAI board fire Sam Altman again in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
y1ovy9a2ii
false
s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4xqgqzi6876", "label": "sbares", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Quantum Gambler
Ks1y55ba9o1RaAsoPTuL
public
contract
1,716,379,762,409
will-denmark-legalize-high-tch-cann
Mirek
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055
Will Denmark legalize high TCH cannabis by the end of 2025
cthzz543rgl
0.234337
16.555174
NO
null
tv6l5fn09d
false
WKKdTCqHduaNtJN6rUYpPKXwK8U2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Love the humor of some of the answers", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Iason Koukas
OEoKor6SbrXci8kKrtkA
public
contract
1,716,379,852,573
if-an-ai-wipes-out-humanity-on-eart
IasonKoukas
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJIJyDLPEuPXNOzTrfsptZ48FfaLCZm5IfcjrS0XnYKx8=s96-c
If an AI wipes out humanity on Earth, what will be true of this AI?
null
null
102.239283
YES
200a9984af44
yukjukvxfyr
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "86j95xzbfci", "label": "Jan53274", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
rRc5MgunumVnCFjN1CPj
public
contract
1,716,379,893,355
where-is-the-great-filter
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Where is the Great Filter?
z8vc6e2010l
null
122.801934
YES
8e63c15646c4
gga4t2hawbg
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "la97roiz08", "label": "IhorKendiukhov", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
rRc5MgunumVnCFjN1CPj
public
contract
1,716,380,229,123
where-is-the-great-filter
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Where is the Great Filter?
ifovy6q619
null
122.801934
YES
8e63c15646c4
p9vdx9yn3xo
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gga4t2hawbg", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Ihor Kendiukhov
rRc5MgunumVnCFjN1CPj
public
contract
1,716,380,299,148
where-is-the-great-filter
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
Where is the Great Filter?
ifovy6q619
null
100.688065
YES
4e8fe1e1651b
g9pdbt6suv
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fuoblx474h8", "label": "IhorKendiukhov", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
rRc5MgunumVnCFjN1CPj
public
contract
1,716,380,460,404
where-is-the-great-filter
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Where is the Great Filter?
k6lhtb7garb
null
198.126197
YES
6c0ded3d8135
h6lvelkrb4v
false
PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Clarification needed here: if it was called today (or any day before the end of June) to take place in July, would this resolve NO?", "type":...
Noit
EJSJG0SwVuXk97XGhpYT
public
contract
1,716,380,516,844
will-a-uk-general-election-be-calle-b8e82e220593
Noit
https://firebasestorage.…735-191267a06d3d
Will a uk general election be called in the latter six months of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
5p7fpwz4tuq
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "g8sinsdxvki", "label": "tbird", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,380,580,875
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
45k5n9d0h4
false
fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5p7fpwz4tuq", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
t-bird
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,381,025,700
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
tbird
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
ku9dps06m1
false
fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "45k5n9d0h4", "label": "tbird", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
t-bird
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,381,252,681
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
tbird
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
atmej8hcufs
false
4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "64cet4qv4ku", "label": "MartinModrak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Tripping
RIyeL7xiMbfFoG4JJCi9
public
contract
1,716,381,454,402
will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-at-least-t
Tripping
https://firebasestorage.…25f-2823bd2dce88
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win at least two states in the Republican primaries?
64cet4qv4ku
0.00399
8,960.365508
NO
null
2wskgh8cvhr
false
rUI8lj6FurQkk7ikuDfuJ5i7UIu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "luv october", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { ...
Kurgan
mCq2fHhPZcd34tpcgMEw
public
contract
1,716,381,470,009
uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd
Kurgan
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte9FaCKbiAw0pPQkMoWQvI9kjj1u8LRBGPaRVwKyBrx=s96-c
UK General Election - which month in 2024 will it take place?
null
null
2,146.79928
YES
38a29549e59c
wrambe4iuh
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xtfr7cuifhc", "label": "Schneefackel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
vK9bujGHVRqn4pMqGLaJ
public
contract
1,716,381,483,353
do-you-enjoy-gooning
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Do you enjoy gooning?
bm7kqd8ox3q
null
null
null
null
0y0cgfxo72xd
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "45k5n9d0h4", "label": "tbird", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,381,651,437
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
9s87qan7vul
false
9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Have you watched Clarksons Farm?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Fedor
jtCJMNA2mhort8byupyQ
public
contract
1,716,382,050,316
what-tv-shows-will-i-watch-at-least
Fedor
https://firebasestorage.…d6d-1b2c6bbfbc21
What TV shows will I watch at least two episodes of before 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
7s63eu2p1ov
false
fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0y0cgfxo72xd", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
t-bird
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,382,059,944
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
tbird
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
cnosbqgr2do
false
GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why 8%? Doesn’t a 99 year old have a more than 8% chance of making it to 101?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Nathan Wei
XSx8gv37XGjBCiBbI5Jn
public
contract
1,716,382,505,977
will-jimmy-carter-turn-101
nathanwei
https://firebasestorage.…47c-77836969b89a
Will Jimmy Carter turn 101?
null
null
null
null
null
3bfvtx6d1gf
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "QNeSE3Twa4T8TIYn4T2N3xqjrN22", "label": "BanhMiChuoi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
Ziddletwix
eHUibZ0LWFbDWoyKWwDC
public
contract
1,716,382,544,631
will-kendrick-lamar-have-an-album-i
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Kendrick Lamar have an album in the top 10 of the Apple Music 100 best albums?
null
0.94574
759.532708
YES
null
nk2ze8ojmqe
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2", "label": "Marnix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
sTFxRtTWZEorUDgLU8hb
public
contract
1,716,382,667,123
what-will-be-true-of-the-1-best-alb
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
What will be true of the #1 "Best Album" on the "Apple Music's 100 Best Albums" list?
null
null
3,069.074286
NO
a67fdea175af
xl0bsi4meb
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "label": "Stralor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
ArC0qKtRhGu3t3bTBLqY
public
contract
1,716,382,759,484
within-1-month-of-the-manifold-pivo-1926e4937cac
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Within 1 month of the Manifold Pivot announcement, will market creators be given a new self-perpetuating income source?
e0reml3uc3q
0.012742
7,344.040469
NO
null
js1si60582q
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Predictor 🔥
D5zZSQmtNjIo6sgvjK4z
public
contract
1,716,382,798,547
will-iran-have-a-new-president-in-p
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
Will Iran have a new president in power by the end of 2024?
null
0.97757
-0
YES
null
h8zt6mnf9kh
false
6ZfqfZiZU6QscIqYcRxWrCnrFrC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Silicon qubits could use either electron spin or charge degree of freedom. I guess you assumed both are Ok.", "type": "text" } ...
Leo
J973MIMe0JDHFh2ngF5l
public
contract
1,716,383,054,936
which-of-the-following-quantum-comp-17ccdc32efa7
LeonidF
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLn2SjeUsOIFcsldHxK9MEOiEcZsISxHd4Xdkpbe_aK=s96-c
Which of the following quantum computing technologies will first succeed in breaking 256-bit Elliptic Curve Encryption?
null
null
null
null
null
q8rx8hu5cw
false
iEE5Xt4StNg7Wtu1pNN6YE5v1S23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Doesn't pass the sniff test, why aren't the publications linked on the science section of the website? Even after searching these publications the firs...
Sapphire828
F2fy7J7Oa8GRBXeQgLrZ
public
contract
1,716,383,193,070
will-lantern-bioworks-be-accepted-t
EstMtz
https://firebasestorage.…4bd-91600290a4d7
Will Lantern Bioworks be accepted to the next cohort of YCombinator?
null
0.140891
151.044043
NO
null
obq3ion4jo
false
GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ensmamlzjn", "label": "JamesBakerc884", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Nathan Wei
q4VTd4bI9AhllLAhb2nK
public
contract
1,716,383,208,116
when-will-i-leave-manifold
nathanwei
https://firebasestorage.…47c-77836969b89a
When will I leave Manifold?
ensmamlzjn
null
530.06511
YES
0f39f64fb09a
yr5ey534ny
false
meuhA1aDr8aJC7jnLGQev1nyI5x2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There is vaporware already: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
Pierre Thierry
crduq2sXOI1b7qi6CG3G
public
contract
1,716,383,624,535
when-will-an-ai-develop-maintain-an
PierreThierry
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteGWIHt4U5Dt272loCrDsKWtshT8bx0dC_Q_dyIcpXdPA=s96-c
When will an AI develop, maintain and evolve by itself a full web application?
null
null
139.730846
YES
e951867d0a20
2nm4eycvmpi
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Christopher Randles
qMtEGWTyykNo0T2Cc42S
public
contract
1,716,383,647,513
what-will-happen-in-may-2024-add-re
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
🌼What will happen in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
826.048429
YES
4149c1d5bb11
icry5c6mfsl
false
Hl00u2lWwcgYwYV92yvK1uWTPav1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2", "label": "jskf", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Bob Snodgrass
EhHu7zfhjYE4OouWtXnI
public
contract
1,716,383,704,237
metaculus-will-donald-trump-testify
BobSnodgrass
https://firebasestorage.…c00-ba7907f2cf2e
[Metaculus] Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?
null
0.010074
2,062.446719
NO
null
lqk7xx7g7qs
false
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2nm4eycvmpi", "label": "ChristopherRandles", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Panfilo
qMtEGWTyykNo0T2Cc42S
public
contract
1,716,383,795,432
what-will-happen-in-may-2024-add-re
Panfilo
https://firebasestorage.…30c-2f62a625fa0b
🌼What will happen in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
2nm4eycvmpi
null
786.145182
YES
15cbc4d89806
tkgc3nsjxw
false
p86tFDgKP6Ul7kbQsK2Bk9AYzq72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "My dad works for the US government and he's been telling me the word on the street from the guys he talks with is that Biden is winning the election. H...
Fred Bush
nhtqRLHoNXRXYe9bEm8m
public
contract
1,716,383,987,054
will-trump-beat-biden-in-national-p
FredBush
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZ2knnJlOGsMQsDwdxdah6poGdy_mRn_0eQNxRI=s96-c
Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of June? (538)
null
0.922976
154.244676
YES
null
eirwygstybn
false
J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This doesn't really have anything to do with the market, but is anyone else annoyed at these approvals?", "type": "text" } ], ...
Steve Sokolowski
C0l7BQXSIWtlCvzD9Cef
public
contract
1,716,384,440,406
will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a
SteveSokolowski
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c
Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF before May 23rd, 2024?
null
0.135279
0
NO
null
rwv5fuzmzhn
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xtfr7cuifhc", "label": "Schneefackel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Rana G
vK9bujGHVRqn4pMqGLaJ
public
contract
1,716,384,457,420
do-you-enjoy-gooning
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
Do you enjoy gooning?
bm7kqd8ox3q
null
null
null
null
xtrsdtelda
false
MRjW2CLX2ZWYm97PMwvTdYSTJ5g1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I predict... an election! Trick is to buy low and sell high :P ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { ...
alh
mCq2fHhPZcd34tpcgMEw
public
contract
1,716,384,511,875
uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd
alh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJOYqNwjWqVxrdyfZkgI7wzcYEKBtW2Wyl50riBsXx4IQ=s96-c
UK General Election - which month in 2024 will it take place?
null
null
1,500.61965
YES
0a5c2e803118
3t4ycjr32oe
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "b3qw8u6hln", "label": "0482", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Daniel
wdkYmwhrUcBIwk4wXBX1
public
contract
1,716,384,894,540
will-we-have-a-free-chatbot-that-ca
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
Will we have a free chatbot that can reliably solve "what weight more" questions by end of 2024?
zq23dtnu5he
0.906475
2,284.941684
YES
null
yaq0r7afyxe
false
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "atmej8hcufs", "label": "Tripping", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Martin Modrák
RIyeL7xiMbfFoG4JJCi9
public
contract
1,716,384,906,456
will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-at-least-t
MartinModrak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win at least two states in the Republican primaries?
64cet4qv4ku
0.00399
11.578358
NO
null