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yrs25bolho
false
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's a scary thing to see this rise steadily from 4% to 16%! I keep reseting my \"insurance\" limit order higher.", "type": "text" },...
James
NTzDIAxDpvua30AlsBII
public
contract
1,718,060,267,393
will-i-get-injured-riding-my-electr
JamesGrugett
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
Will I get injured riding my electric unicycle by the end of 2024?
null
0.163739
4,702.203085
YES
null
zscjzf2sq1
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I dont know how to resolve the remaining ones, we can N/A or wait for the video(?)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragra...
Genzy
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,718,060,309,468
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
null
null
null
null
null
h3ppm25x0kf
false
xfvv2IHWADa6xJjECe73FFXU3CV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7gc0iordwc3", "label": "Santiago", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
EugeneBixby
cuxbqqlwFIMjMyrZiusf
public
contract
1,718,060,374,067
will-my-covid-test-be-positive
EugeneBixby
https://firebasestorage.…a71-2fe7e17f7e21
Will my Covid test be positive?
7gc0iordwc3
0.097403
570.159173
NO
null
wq1ca65pf8
false
1RfsLVzFZwaLLXGaSr5yaG5ink23
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
duN
18HRXo2LWzDqizrj8FEY
public
contract
1,718,060,440,914
will-destiny-get-unbanned-from-twit-df967649e5f8
dgga
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdgga%2F_HQHzw0yrx.0?alt=media&token=b8a7e5fb-51e0-49fa-b18c-463f38fe9ecc
Will Destiny get unbanned from Twitch before October 2024?
null
0.198492
14,469.750781
NO
null
34del8l2sq5
false
ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "99j5dp36yml", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Stark
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,718,060,598,515
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
StarkLN
https://firebasestorage.…b7b-8e8f10700842
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
99j5dp36yml
null
143.480045
NO
a1e1436fa370
6s4j11jwax5
false
9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The results are in. A 4 was rolled. thank you very much for your predictions. The next question will be up shortly <3", "type": "text" ...
CrowTheFox
jHrihotxCG40XGyiWKiA
public
contract
1,718,060,599,074
what-will-my-d12-land-on-daily-cj8pwam5ga
CrowTheFox
https://firebasestorage.…595-28d54bbe7c1c
What will my d12 land on? - Daily
null
null
null
null
null
clh5knrgoy
false
KNqZAiItmVTCX0LzUcj8Twg7tnh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7gc0iordwc3", "label": "Santiago", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
snazzlePop
cuxbqqlwFIMjMyrZiusf
public
contract
1,718,060,614,355
will-my-covid-test-be-positive
snazzlePop
https://firebasestorage.…4df-4312e7a7f92b
Will my Covid test be positive?
7gc0iordwc3
0
294.856432
YES
null
vurh63j1rsp
false
oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bdvtlvgi0us", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
barak
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,718,060,663,818
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
barak
https://firebasestorage.…490-ba585c49c2ba
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
meameyek6fa
null
null
null
null
anj1uoyo4a
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "34del8l2sq5", "label": "StarkLN", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,718,060,747,166
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
99j5dp36yml
null
101.039984
YES
01aecba1591a
yjhvpgs8qr8
false
9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Please disregard the week resolution. This will resolve tomorrow. Apologies for the mistake.", "type": "text" } ], "type"...
CrowTheFox
0t4pyaGM7chSh1xfoY4m
public
contract
1,718,060,768,949
what-will-my-d12-land-on-daily-sups4cv6kg
CrowTheFox
https://firebasestorage.…595-28d54bbe7c1c
What will my d12 land on? - Daily
null
null
null
null
null
0x88zo2zbdk
false
3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Isn’t it available in China on Steam?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MercurialGuesser
ObLIlaowHSM5oSAjjPAD
public
contract
1,718,060,827,367
will-overwatch-2-return-to-china-be
OP
https://firebasestorage.…8da-0f20dd0e5cac
Will Overwatch 2 return to China before 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
sgmbq3qoggd
false
9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "yjhvpgs8qr8", "label": "CrowTheFox", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
CrowTheFox
0t4pyaGM7chSh1xfoY4m
public
contract
1,718,060,832,299
what-will-my-d12-land-on-daily-sups4cv6kg
CrowTheFox
https://firebasestorage.…595-28d54bbe7c1c
What will my d12 land on? - Daily
yjhvpgs8qr8
null
null
null
null
zq5qfyatsa
false
mlTY0Yw10Pgo0Tk6Ln7kAAWvSaF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Needs to be resolved.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bert
kAd6kq6mloFDwCEZKxlC
public
contract
1,718,060,841,882
following-the-2023-dutch-general-el-a3de90781d96
Bart5f6d
https://firebasestorage.…281-e2c49a57c802
Following the 2023 Dutch General Elections, will the new governing coalition consist of at least 3 parties?
null
0.915297
54.225383
YES
null
lexjv9ibb4b
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "you're incentivizing someone to crash into you, good luck", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": ...
nikki
NTzDIAxDpvua30AlsBII
public
contract
1,718,061,090,505
will-i-get-injured-riding-my-electr
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Will I get injured riding my electric unicycle by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
m74367pcy0l
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "In my anecdotal experience, real strawberries have a tendency to be disappointingly bitter/sour occasionally, but mangos have yet to fail me lol", ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,718,061,114,635
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
null
null
101.039984
YES
01aecba1591a
2ikqyky2vd6
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "siazecu4zi", "label": "nick", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
la7HPJLTAhJzj5rA9UCd
public
contract
1,718,061,267,495
which-combinations-of-technology-wi-4818c0128637
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 25 years?
ospas3jy4ls
null
4.129671
NO
1390bcdf0011
bke6qy7wuf
false
MaWKBofJ84bWOF5IhCf041Z5UfK2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2ikqyky2vd6", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
nick
la7HPJLTAhJzj5rA9UCd
public
contract
1,718,061,461,650
which-combinations-of-technology-wi-4818c0128637
nick
https://firebasestorage.…758-cf4ab3185e8a
Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 25 years?
ospas3jy4ls
null
690.087331
YES
1390bcdf0011
1rm0icoh6k2
false
uKcjazFwIkhMFvhie6cnANL8MTV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't expect it. Prove me wrong.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Karl K.
7KVpEJVXq808zhGqX6kS
public
contract
1,718,061,533,740
will-there-be-a-stage-performance-o
KarlK
https://firebasestorage.…e18-995693e838cc
Will there be a stage performance of an UNSONG musical by EOY 2025?
null
0.319653
71.159098
NO
null
bkgob4zy8hh
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hdawyts1ve", "label": "AlexanderMiller", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Timothy Johnson
y5eGY1CFGGllUatsiXMx
public
contract
1,718,061,537,614
who-will-win-the-2024-nba-champions
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 NBA Championship?
hdawyts1ve
null
1,098.165681
YES
734a0a905106
kdpqbpovbwp
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If no one DMs me to report an orgy by tomorrow morning, I'll resolve this NO", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Jonathan Ray
eHoUkpWQ6f7B6WbaTM6m
public
contract
1,718,061,611,723
will-there-be-an-orgy-at-manifest-2
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
Will there be an orgy at manifest 2?
null
0.053559
1,195.783592
YES
null
8mzowli6w7k
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If no one DMs me to report an orgy by tomorrow morning, this will N/A", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ]...
Jonathan Ray
VblTUyaAErtVjnvbEn6K
public
contract
1,718,061,726,376
unlinked-multiple-choice-anyone-can
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
[Unlinked multiple choice, anyone can add] Who will get invited to an orgy at Manifest 2?
null
null
343.304982
NO
512204634a46
u6pol2i4t4
false
3RBKyadH6YdskM2FPlgQ4KyBqOT2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I would like to propose a more objective and straightforward method for resolving this market to minimize disputes. Using an independent organization, ...
Vinicius Moreira
BetSXeRHXok6VdfPtkp8
public
contract
1,718,061,867,643
will-spacexs-starship-superheavy-la
ViniciusMoreira
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfaWmn_rChI0HBQaAci0SRrHU8s8OW_9xXguLY7IAxRpH9u=s96-c
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
null
0.296227
78,972.432229
YES
null
xxyy6jrxr6f
false
xfvv2IHWADa6xJjECe73FFXU3CV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "label": "JonathanRay", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
EugeneBixby
cuxbqqlwFIMjMyrZiusf
public
contract
1,718,061,915,740
will-my-covid-test-be-positive
EugeneBixby
https://firebasestorage.…a71-2fe7e17f7e21
Will my Covid test be positive?
7gc0iordwc3
0
570.159173
NO
null
fg8gpeczro
false
uKcjazFwIkhMFvhie6cnANL8MTV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is your motivation to switch keyboards solely to type faster, or are there ergonomic / comfort / pain considerations too?", "type": "text" ...
Karl K.
ZfvnN2VsUYRQia9sBtX6
public
contract
1,718,062,076,603
conditional-on-switching-to-a-kines
KarlK
https://firebasestorage.…e18-995693e838cc
Conditional on switching to a Kinesis Advantage keyboard, how will my typing speed change after 2.5 months of usage?
null
null
169.645883
YES
7c54e4480ba2
scya78znjc
false
PVghLfFlmBO25sDxZk4yl0RMfYx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I would use genmoji to make a new annoyed emoji, but of course that’s coming “later this year”", "type": "text" } ], "typ...
geuber_
7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ
public
contract
1,718,062,367,960
will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f
geuber_
https://firebasestorage.…da0-2542d672ab35
Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?
null
1
16,958.334575
NO
null
zeu58mhowvl
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
SirCryptomind
dpaawDugSihdsjG7Heah
public
contract
1,718,062,433,597
will-there-be-a-lasting-formal-bila-f1ac05611839
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
🛑⚔️ Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
dgg6y6eucn8
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
SirCryptomind
JVnuDTxOYJdXJFadNSKf
public
contract
1,718,062,463,452
what-event-will-happen-first-israel
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
What Event Will Happen First: Israel/Hamas Ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump Re-Elected, Biden Re-elected
null
null
null
null
null
l6srvrs7k6m
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5q4kff48ui5", "label": "Jan53274", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
9WXgDpKC7UyF4mh34NlP
public
contract
1,718,062,613,486
if-human-brain-emulations-are-creat
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
If human brain emulations are created, will they outnumber the biological human population within a decade?
tm3yx9r5p8
0.47641
9.446583
NO
null
0ymla1s1hak9
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5q4kff48ui5", "label": "Jan53274", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
9WXgDpKC7UyF4mh34NlP
public
contract
1,718,062,703,345
if-human-brain-emulations-are-creat
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
If human brain emulations are created, will they outnumber the biological human population within a decade?
tm3yx9r5p8
0.47641
9.446583
NO
null
vfsovcl82u
false
ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vd4hycm7p6", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Stark
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,718,062,736,904
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
StarkLN
https://firebasestorage.…b7b-8e8f10700842
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
z3eewk2sf2
null
143.480045
NO
a1e1436fa370
94l3vlrnr7
false
2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bkgob4zy8hh", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Gabrielle
y5eGY1CFGGllUatsiXMx
public
contract
1,718,062,879,917
who-will-win-the-2024-nba-champions
Gabrielle
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 NBA Championship?
hdawyts1ve
null
43,041.443299
NO
e5be5f8e01fe
n1hgx6nk75
false
ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "m74367pcy0l", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Stark
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,718,062,943,620
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
StarkLN
https://firebasestorage.…b7b-8e8f10700842
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
m74367pcy0l
null
143.480045
NO
a1e1436fa370
j1gv24yc9pb
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bke6qy7wuf", "label": "nick", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
la7HPJLTAhJzj5rA9UCd
public
contract
1,718,063,134,574
which-combinations-of-technology-wi-4818c0128637
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 25 years?
ospas3jy4ls
null
222.403522
NO
gaq4d4cmdj
4suea3gddt8
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "94l3vlrnr7", "label": "Gabrielle", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
y5eGY1CFGGllUatsiXMx
public
contract
1,718,063,193,857
who-will-win-the-2024-nba-champions
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will win the 2024 NBA Championship?
hdawyts1ve
null
2,363.278697
YES
8730e267c153
antr9j54sav
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "n1hgx6nk75", "label": "StarkLN", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,718,063,207,350
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
m74367pcy0l
null
101.039984
YES
01aecba1591a
clp2nmf152w
false
ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "antr9j54sav", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Stark
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,718,063,311,219
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
StarkLN
https://firebasestorage.…b7b-8e8f10700842
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
m74367pcy0l
null
143.480045
NO
a1e1436fa370
s45p3ud0pxe
false
ldIRwMPTG6d0kO3LyWew5ZQBWc33
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Note that Evan’s MOHS chart calls this N.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
DottedCalculator
J5X5kXr6O9i4yEUaZE3O
public
contract
1,718,063,397,456
is-usamo-20243-geometry
DottedCalculator
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIhl-l-m_d_iYt1ungYnm52eXosXMHPxnWCzTyaJr7cLA=s96-c
Is USAMO 2024/3 geometry?
null
null
null
null
null
qtk6jibfdy
false
5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vns2wverihf", "label": "JacobPfau", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Jacob Pfau
2JR71AaTUzmkvgmum9fH
public
contract
1,718,063,524,023
humanmachine-intelligence-parity-ac-e59e9ccd6cc1
JacobPfau
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9AcHAinEt-V5Xi8pbj83HmY8nWf1vkc_FfNTDr=s96-c
Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028
vns2wverihf
null
null
null
null
9kzvifdjoie
false
5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Jacob Pfau
pWXEtZ45t1bvsyeZZ6dl
public
contract
1,718,063,531,495
humanmachine-intelligence-parity-ac
JacobPfau
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9AcHAinEt-V5Xi8pbj83HmY8nWf1vkc_FfNTDr=s96-c
Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030
null
null
null
null
null
y8q6hm68j5q
false
5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9kzvifdjoie", "label": "JacobPfau", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Jacob Pfau
pWXEtZ45t1bvsyeZZ6dl
public
contract
1,718,063,554,933
humanmachine-intelligence-parity-ac
JacobPfau
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9AcHAinEt-V5Xi8pbj83HmY8nWf1vkc_FfNTDr=s96-c
Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030
9kzvifdjoie
null
null
null
null
mx2joqhicg
false
ib04ONx9ULTPKiAxlAiEBER20783
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
eclair4151
9ERLLK5yfKrab7pYkg4O
public
contract
1,718,063,558,296
will-macos-15-drop-support-for-inte
eclair4151
https://firebasestorage.…d46-ea85d23e6623
Will macOS 15 drop support for intel based Mac’s?
null
0.040636
6,792.907246
NO
null
e6xhw15fn5a
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "added liquidity to make it a proper non-play market (wanted to let people add options for cheap first—awkward mechanics but seems to be the best way to...
Ziddletwix
IPBVC154XoObftslKu3D
public
contract
1,718,063,691,035
which-session-at-manifest-2024-will
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which session at Manifest 2024 will be Manifold’s favorite? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
89.256576
YES
or4vp6j8z9
1uyifr69md6
false
dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
duck_master
vwlDiiyjd9tZVOVPyJKz
public
contract
1,718,063,767,671
will-1-try-be-worth-more-than-0034
duck_master
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fduck_master%2Flove-images%2F0P82jd00Lc.59?alt=media&token=eb4ef3fd-c16c-4725-a772-3879a67385a6
Will 1 TRY be worth more than 0.034 USD on 31st of May?
null
0.015681
460.662448
YES
null
pe6bwgi4lzs
false
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I like the idea of making all the Americans on this site care about NZ politics, but it’s gonna be Christopher Luxon.", "type": "text" ...
N.C. Young
03JkrctMNrVKNTJBbxFW
public
contract
1,718,063,787,735
-what-question-will-i-use-my-free-c
NcyRocks
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
💎🔮💎 What question will I use my free crystal on? 💎🔮💎
null
null
3,071.849311
NO
es8zfve7ax
pxk83ttkrlj
false
ib04ONx9ULTPKiAxlAiEBER20783
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
eclair4151
SVtbXjsHF5R7SbtjqqmK
public
contract
1,718,063,804,157
will-apple-announce-homeos-or-equiv-e301125c51ca
eclair4151
https://firebasestorage.…d46-ea85d23e6623
Will Apple announce homeOS (or equivalent) in 2024?
null
0.298052
45.289591
NO
null
nfq7fqsfl3n
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bitcoin mining already uses like twice that much. Less of an infrastructure challenge if they figure out a way to efficiently parallelize the training...
Jonathan Ray
AynYwfzdBlrm5uI75vQ8
public
contract
1,718,063,900,049
lasa-10gw-training-run-before-2029
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
[LA:SA] 10GW AI training run before 2029?
null
null
null
null
null
h57e58y5eft
false
dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
duck_master
UUEkaQgyisqEJ8lrZXMq
public
contract
1,718,064,016,963
will-there-be-a-wellrecognized-lett-2cab14fd9244
duck_master
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fduck_master%2Flove-images%2F0P82jd00Lc.59?alt=media&token=eb4ef3fd-c16c-4725-a772-3879a67385a6
Will there be a well-recognized letter/statement on rationalussy by June 9, 2024?
null
0.18309
18.333333
NO
null
f79qqj8l8r6
false
d9vxoU9czxR8HkgfMdwwTmVBQ3y2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ykq44oleov", "label": "Sss19971997", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bence
s9ECrlGd88Vw7OVsc930
public
contract
1,718,064,133,824
will-there-be-an-open-source-llm-ap
bence
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY6q8sP8ydlU9daTxBnT6rxi4S_cnrdBUjDR2INFbY=s96-c
There will be an open source LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025
r93dhlli5y
null
null
null
null
jn96wcr868b
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "clh5knrgoy", "label": "snazzlePop", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bayesian
cuxbqqlwFIMjMyrZiusf
public
contract
1,718,064,258,319
will-my-covid-test-be-positive
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will my Covid test be positive?
7gc0iordwc3
0
1,442.930209
NO
null
3rhv54demub
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "clp2nmf152w", "label": "StarkLN", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,718,064,529,002
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
m74367pcy0l
null
101.039984
YES
01aecba1591a
8u60ybxpru7
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3rhv54demub", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,718,064,599,309
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
m74367pcy0l
null
101.039984
YES
01aecba1591a
dczpdb0ca0o
false
KNqZAiItmVTCX0LzUcj8Twg7tnh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jn96wcr868b", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
snazzlePop
cuxbqqlwFIMjMyrZiusf
public
contract
1,718,064,686,832
will-my-covid-test-be-positive
snazzlePop
https://firebasestorage.…4df-4312e7a7f92b
Will my Covid test be positive?
7gc0iordwc3
0
294.856432
YES
null
18v9wkdjn07i
false
FJ5Fo1i5QCR8CTh6j98E8CBxU602
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "04s31lzrn9ew", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ricki Heicklen
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,718,064,698,847
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
RickiHeicklen
https://firebasestorage.…ffa-a8e1a1b09581
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
04s31lzrn9ew
null
24.834793
YES
e76593af9a49
qv6ldk8fa7a
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pe6bwgi4lzs", "label": "NcyRocks", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
nikki
03JkrctMNrVKNTJBbxFW
public
contract
1,718,064,904,345
-what-question-will-i-use-my-free-c
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
💎🔮💎 What question will I use my free crystal on? 💎🔮💎
pe6bwgi4lzs
null
808.593798
YES
dfizjv5bzs
s3o2r5a8ymp
false
LRWC4p997NObPY7tN5b8vYfvdsH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7whkk2ykm2v", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
becauseyoudo
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,718,064,986,036
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
becauseyoudo
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbecauseyoudo%2F0GXbVCpNNX.bmp?alt=media&token=d5558412-2de1-47d7-ad36-a44a43748531
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
7whkk2ykm2v
null
77.928592
YES
9jjqmvycj
ibwu0dm6o8
false
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qv6ldk8fa7a", "label": "nikki", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
N.C. Young
03JkrctMNrVKNTJBbxFW
public
contract
1,718,065,028,706
-what-question-will-i-use-my-free-c
NcyRocks
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
💎🔮💎 What question will I use my free crystal on? 💎🔮💎
pe6bwgi4lzs
null
3,071.849311
NO
es8zfve7ax
1e2fpttjyt6h
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "u6pol2i4t4", "label": "ViniciusMoreira", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Eliza
BetSXeRHXok6VdfPtkp8
public
contract
1,718,065,187,935
will-spacexs-starship-superheavy-la
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
u6pol2i4t4
0.296227
582.877452
NO
null
8m817wwt8bj
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "who is she? we need the deets, the devil lives in that shit", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type"...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
OF26IPrEWIOXinkWAYh2
public
contract
1,718,065,208,141
will-she-like-me-back
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will she like me back
null
null
null
null
null
hwztzm5esd8
false
9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Do bots count as people?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Michael
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,718,065,226,683
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
burkh4rt
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv31Whhbh-4wrvOPbGM9zLTlznsRJp_8zkd0nrodHyg6za=s96-c
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
null
null
81.35005
YES
3goqm4vpm6
iel7tqdr8bc
false
VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "d4loebhetrs", "label": "Snarflak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Al Quinn
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,718,065,449,307
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
AlQuinn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
2d62h51fvje
null
null
null
null
n7a2v1032r
false
9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "June 10: EZ was wearing black today", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
dusty
xKRb2Kosg55IYmOOemiT
public
contract
1,718,065,548,950
during-the-days-in-june-when-i-see
stardust2
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbVZGqMvxy1yq6xJgCSUCR789Lgb1aMulLxZKUs4nPmsaEWg=s96-c
During the days in June when I see EZ, which color of suit jacket will EZ wear the most frequently?
null
null
7.521045
YES
oxicc5pbxx
lcjo1s5pwme
false
OQaC0IrVMpeUFAMgsU0PE0Hvkyu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "See ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "9ERLLK5yfKrab7pYkg4O", "label": "/eclair4151/w...
Probajoelistic
dXmeXrSl12FkgUhaZjco
public
contract
1,718,065,665,598
-what-will-be-true-about-macos-15
probajoelistic
https://firebasestorage.…ef4-27ec116e3424
💻 What will be true about MacOS 15?
null
null
1,437.085752
YES
7a3d4ca040f7
fksj2rfstpr
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Shouldn't centrists by definition be neither left nor right?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type...
Timothy Johnson
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,718,065,737,980
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
null
null
1,603.350934
YES
fe4488ef81bd
uj9w4dxtqt
false
eHOH3DEytBP98orPkOCPBkDKwpH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jy9tl12n39f", "label": "SGQ", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Daniel Gallant
BMDhvizvP9g6NKU9jUDJ
public
contract
1,718,065,743,526
will-randomly-selecting-questions-a
DanielGallant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJROZ_eNRbAfKjHCt0cDRRebhYI0IJ8Pas7cNZFYi4bmeFd=s96-c
Will randomly selecting questions and answers be a winning strategy?
jy9tl12n39f
0.620834
437.559324
YES
null
jtjmleyuweg
false
eHOH3DEytBP98orPkOCPBkDKwpH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cdhr2alxyn", "label": "JonathanRay", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Daniel Gallant
BMDhvizvP9g6NKU9jUDJ
public
contract
1,718,065,822,390
will-randomly-selecting-questions-a
DanielGallant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJROZ_eNRbAfKjHCt0cDRRebhYI0IJ8Pas7cNZFYi4bmeFd=s96-c
Will randomly selecting questions and answers be a winning strategy?
cdhr2alxyn
0.620834
437.559324
YES
null
en0u9ra96k
false
eHOH3DEytBP98orPkOCPBkDKwpH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nar64a9i7rs", "label": "KongoLandwalker", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Daniel Gallant
BMDhvizvP9g6NKU9jUDJ
public
contract
1,718,065,848,060
will-randomly-selecting-questions-a
DanielGallant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJROZ_eNRbAfKjHCt0cDRRebhYI0IJ8Pas7cNZFYi4bmeFd=s96-c
Will randomly selecting questions and answers be a winning strategy?
nar64a9i7rs
0.620834
437.559324
YES
null
mmimtqapcl
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "distress at first due to worldview shift, likely followed by joy and relief that various horrible things for others in the world no longer apply ", ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
NoBmBhyxQZCzygTgxJUW
public
contract
1,718,065,894,377
if-you-found-out-that-all-other-app
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
If you found out that all other apparently-sentient beings were merely philosophical zombies, would you be distressed?
null
null
null
null
null
vq4rnsaqe78
false
eHOH3DEytBP98orPkOCPBkDKwpH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "x59kx2n0dsj", "label": "Mqrius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Daniel Gallant
BMDhvizvP9g6NKU9jUDJ
public
contract
1,718,065,910,980
will-randomly-selecting-questions-a
DanielGallant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJROZ_eNRbAfKjHCt0cDRRebhYI0IJ8Pas7cNZFYi4bmeFd=s96-c
Will randomly selecting questions and answers be a winning strategy?
x59kx2n0dsj
0.620834
437.559324
YES
null
kf2dwhto07
false
zreTIOEPvvM5D7s9jyrgcxMpmyR2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "More general question ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
Sean
gEixyerPjQRcbisLd8x1
public
contract
1,718,066,017,823
will-premier-doug-ford-win-the-44th
Seanny123
https://firebasestorage.…f3f-6e754ce9979f
Will Premier Doug Ford win the 44th Ontario General Election?
null
0.287314
17.182291
NO
null
im2q7or4xyp
false
X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Daniel Tello
d3WmqKFGOxIXD8tPXVUf
public
contract
1,718,066,051,819
can-i-order-the-apple-vision-pro-vi
deagol
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c
Can I Order the Apple Vision Pro via the App or Apple Store in Germany by June 30, 2024?
null
0.845392
425.525952
NO
null
9ludborle0q
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fksj2rfstpr", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Bayesian
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,718,066,181,684
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
fksj2rfstpr
null
1,222.893852
NO
1119a937b6cd
pxnoxr33voc
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jtjmleyuweg", "label": "DanielGallant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Jonathan Ray
BMDhvizvP9g6NKU9jUDJ
public
contract
1,718,066,238,010
will-randomly-selecting-questions-a
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
Will randomly selecting questions and answers be a winning strategy?
cdhr2alxyn
0.620834
97.085252
NO
null
iqsmebrhzb
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yeah I am not aware of any such statement either, and since the market creator hasn't been on manifold for a while, it would be reasonable imo to resol...
Bayesian
UUEkaQgyisqEJ8lrZXMq
public
contract
1,718,066,374,012
will-there-be-a-wellrecognized-lett-2cab14fd9244
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will there be a well-recognized letter/statement on rationalussy by June 9, 2024?
h57e58y5eft
null
null
null
null
5fyhhp6k42f
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "label": "SG", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Bayesian
UUEkaQgyisqEJ8lrZXMq
public
contract
1,718,066,479,100
will-there-be-a-wellrecognized-lett-2cab14fd9244
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will there be a well-recognized letter/statement on rationalussy by June 9, 2024?
h57e58y5eft
null
null
null
null
lsjcyg6kmwj
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Dan
IopCmYTj5fL31bWral7L
public
contract
1,718,066,481,904
will-manifest-2024-be-proximately-p
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
Will Manifest 2024 be proximately profitable?
null
0.787216
123.12544
YES
null
ghvtvcafee4
false
jZsECgI1Y5fuDY9alZvz7CMcxSg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qlnbnjrr0mm", "label": "RemNi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Roberto Gomez
ib0i8TCxfv5k9j0XwxlJ
public
contract
1,718,066,494,495
will-openai-roll-out-the-new-4o-voi
RobertoGomez
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzsGkARi5n93ihu6fO41PTFHtZh-XCjvWL5b0ki=s96-c
Will OpenAI roll out the new 4o voice mode within the next 2 weeks?
qlnbnjrr0mm
null
null
null
null
5w18vyzznzb
false
eHOH3DEytBP98orPkOCPBkDKwpH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pxnoxr33voc", "label": "JonathanRay", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Daniel Gallant
BMDhvizvP9g6NKU9jUDJ
public
contract
1,718,066,686,185
will-randomly-selecting-questions-a
DanielGallant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJROZ_eNRbAfKjHCt0cDRRebhYI0IJ8Pas7cNZFYi4bmeFd=s96-c
Will randomly selecting questions and answers be a winning strategy?
cdhr2alxyn
0.605887
437.559324
YES
null
eq7zt905j4s
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is there a minimum combatant number? Does organised crime count?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
1TORQUIGJjyFVdq9oYre
public
contract
1,718,066,741,032
will-there-be-fighting-in-st-peters
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg (Russia's major northern city) during 2024?
null
0.042485
108.00304
YES
null
lc2ykhw1c6i
false
ib04ONx9ULTPKiAxlAiEBER20783
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves yes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contra...
eclair4151
L2hrzESG7T7HnBPaJjVX
public
contract
1,718,066,777,806
-what-will-be-true-about-ios-18
eclair4151
https://firebasestorage.…d46-ea85d23e6623
📱 What will be included in iOS 18?
null
null
2,592.918281
YES
b25be22bc5cb
q0e4214ey2
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Many many famous actors in this list: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "m...
Bayesian
bsH2f1PW6rDIZ8fipX6H
public
contract
1,718,066,970,337
what-celebrity-related-news-will-oc
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
What Celebrity Related News Will Occur by July 1st (ADD RESPONSES)
null
null
65.712966
YES
532be7b735f9
h6dmakebvri
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Kanye west's vultures 1 album has been criticized a lot", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "d...
Bayesian
bsH2f1PW6rDIZ8fipX6H
public
contract
1,718,067,097,492
what-celebrity-related-news-will-oc
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
What Celebrity Related News Will Occur by July 1st (ADD RESPONSES)
null
null
65.712966
YES
532be7b735f9
gvqkkja24fu
false
H5DtzPv9w2WbeLZg6kQjomWoeu63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Great market", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
EazzyE
xfKNVBbOlXuuYUg3VqXu
public
contract
1,718,067,125,985
who-will-succed-to-gabriel-attal-as
RealMoneyMarkets
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5ZAzCvUMWfnZFu4VIsqn5ttw1tt6H_WnXHLDVL=s96-c
Who will succed to Gabriel Attal as a Prime Minister of France consecutively to the Parliament dissolution ?
null
null
null
null
null
bl8mz0e2ajc
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "there are so many billionaires, this definitely happened but it is a bit of a pain to look into. I welcome others to do it if they know how.", ...
Bayesian
bsH2f1PW6rDIZ8fipX6H
public
contract
1,718,067,229,754
what-celebrity-related-news-will-oc
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
What Celebrity Related News Will Occur by July 1st (ADD RESPONSES)
null
null
65.712966
YES
532be7b735f9
cgkohqec1cn
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9ludborle0q", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Timothy Johnson
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,718,067,267,990
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
fksj2rfstpr
null
1,603.350934
YES
fe4488ef81bd
i1zkca0ryz
false
H5DtzPv9w2WbeLZg6kQjomWoeu63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I made a similar market with more options if yall are interested ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "c...
EazzyE
xfKNVBbOlXuuYUg3VqXu
public
contract
1,718,067,295,016
who-will-succed-to-gabriel-attal-as
RealMoneyMarkets
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5ZAzCvUMWfnZFu4VIsqn5ttw1tt6H_WnXHLDVL=s96-c
Who will succed to Gabriel Attal as a Prime Minister of France consecutively to the Parliament dissolution ?
gvqkkja24fu
null
null
null
null
9xu13l7gj5
false
eHOH3DEytBP98orPkOCPBkDKwpH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jy9tl12n39f", "label": "SGQ", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Daniel Gallant
BMDhvizvP9g6NKU9jUDJ
public
contract
1,718,067,361,090
will-randomly-selecting-questions-a
DanielGallant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJROZ_eNRbAfKjHCt0cDRRebhYI0IJ8Pas7cNZFYi4bmeFd=s96-c
Will randomly selecting questions and answers be a winning strategy?
jy9tl12n39f
0.605887
437.559324
YES
null
ixiqzcxy5oi
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9ludborle0q", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Timothy Johnson
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,718,067,378,009
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
fksj2rfstpr
null
1,603.350934
YES
fe4488ef81bd
rws4tenvhsq
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ixiqzcxy5oi", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Bayesian
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,718,067,463,963
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
fksj2rfstpr
null
1,222.893852
NO
1119a937b6cd
49ix2looihd
false
n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Universal FC ⚽
yz3dhkm7J7SmPwej8Ryv
public
contract
1,718,067,515,831
who-will-win-the-2024-copa-america
UniversalFC
https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1
Who will win the 2024 Copa América?
null
null
null
null
null
yjjv43nc36
false
n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Universal FC ⚽
XKuiRpzDUay4PgD32zvF
public
contract
1,718,067,549,460
which-country-will-win-euro-2024
UniversalFC
https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1
Which country will win Euro 2024?
null
null
864.558024
YES
250f5099321e
ovjjnhdotr
false
ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8u60ybxpru7", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Stark
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,718,067,779,136
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
StarkLN
https://firebasestorage.…b7b-8e8f10700842
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
m74367pcy0l
null
143.480045
NO
a1e1436fa370
mtpf6c3lgjm
false
ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ovjjnhdotr", "label": "StarkLN", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Stark
yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses
public
contract
1,718,067,790,316
would-you-rather-manifold-chooses
StarkLN
https://firebasestorage.…b7b-8e8f10700842
Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
m74367pcy0l
null
143.480045
NO
a1e1436fa370
k4j4a0g23ra
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dedayi2krpq", "label": "Predictor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
JRP
gffoEWwKUc5NIG4cYgZH
public
contract
1,718,067,986,713
will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
Will Trump and Biden shake hands at the first debate in June?
dedayi2krpq
0.419036
83.587564
NO
null
7la3h6ifnd6
false
oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I finished Cordyceps. I rank 60 on my list. Not a terrible book, but I found the protagonists kinda dumb and annoying, and I've read stories with infoh...
mongo
mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1
public
contract
1,718,068,534,216
which-of-these-books-will-i-really
mongo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7I_X--wyVrh_ZPix4FSV8YMpbXtxCdMU-qkPeUUA=s96-c
Which of these books will I really like?
null
null
null
null
null
57aksd40x34
false
oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7la3h6ifnd6", "label": "mongo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
mongo
mSpaNPh1j8Xp9a2G4fg1
public
contract
1,718,068,629,941
which-of-these-books-will-i-really
mongo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7I_X--wyVrh_ZPix4FSV8YMpbXtxCdMU-qkPeUUA=s96-c
Which of these books will I really like?
7la3h6ifnd6
null
null
null
null
di98s6xbsj5
false
OQaC0IrVMpeUFAMgsU0PE0Hvkyu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "l1pr0pw9bei", "label": "MaxMusing", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Probajoelistic
L2hrzESG7T7HnBPaJjVX
public
contract
1,718,068,704,384
-what-will-be-true-about-ios-18
probajoelistic
https://firebasestorage.…ef4-27ec116e3424
📱 What will be included in iOS 18?
l1pr0pw9bei
null
199.563016
YES
a528dab676ef
5mmy6z2uke
false
OQaC0IrVMpeUFAMgsU0PE0Hvkyu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lc2ykhw1c6i", "label": "eclair4151", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Probajoelistic
L2hrzESG7T7HnBPaJjVX
public
contract
1,718,068,800,040
-what-will-be-true-about-ios-18
probajoelistic
https://firebasestorage.…ef4-27ec116e3424
📱 What will be included in iOS 18?
lc2ykhw1c6i
null
199.563016
YES
a528dab676ef
rv4dfx97neq
false
oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Can you give more info on what sorts of books you like and don't like?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
mongo
mJAvwtOIP7mciyZMH0sG
public
contract
1,718,068,915,485
what-books-will-i-enjoy-reading
mongo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7I_X--wyVrh_ZPix4FSV8YMpbXtxCdMU-qkPeUUA=s96-c
What books will I enjoy reading?
null
null
null
null
null
ooaifjire6n
false
RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "label": "mattyb", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
fish
bGoDgVsRBRSpgg75xD0l
public
contract
1,718,069,103,954
which-countryies-will-be-the-next-t
kurt
https://firebasestorage.…ea6-9b4d3d6f8834
Which country(ies) will be the next to get the Apple Vision Pro? 🍎👓🗺️
null
null
703.055373
YES
6634d03279ac
n5kyslnnl0g
false
T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rv4dfx97neq", "label": "mongo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Tony Gao
mJAvwtOIP7mciyZMH0sG
public
contract
1,718,069,306,302
what-books-will-i-enjoy-reading
TonyGao
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c
What books will I enjoy reading?
rv4dfx97neq
null
null
null
null