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"type":... | Ziddletwix | kunxgmp71i | public | contract | 1,718,728,669,503 | first-debate-trumpisms-megamarket-w | Ziddletwix | First Debate Trump-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Trump say? | null | null | 3,054.450426 | NO | b8il7lraym | |
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"text": "The settlement was for the appeal of Disney's loss, which we know because Disney publicly lost in state court in January. A party that loses in trial c... | Hyperlincoln | usgGPFgmigSZBtDpgOms | public | contract | 1,718,729,369,079 | will-disney-win-their-lawsuit-again | Hyperlincoln | Will Disney win their lawsuit against Ron DeSantis? | 72jnuuye3ob | 0.014517 | 5,783.459188 | NO | null | |
uvqjv0s9xm | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
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"text": "everyone got covid but didn't even have an orgy lol",
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... | stefanie | 1ebmc5klyv | public | contract | 1,718,729,381,360 | will-there-be-an-orgy-at-vibecamp-2 | shankypanky | Will there be an Orgy at Vibecamp 2024? | kjgw72dcmw | null | null | null | null | |
hxhrdkntrsw | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
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"text": "working backwards from 90% chance of a crash within 20 years, I get 10% chance of a crash within 1 year, or 5% chance of a crash in the remaining 6 mon... | Jonathan Ray | du2tane7kn | public | contract | 1,718,729,453,849 | 3-big-ai-companies-lose-10-of-marke | JonathanRay | Will 3 Big AI Companies lose 10% of market cap in a single day (AI Bubble Pop) by 2025? | twkfrnii2yn | null | null | null | null | |
s8koq95dec | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
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... | Jonathan Ray | du2tane7kn | public | contract | 1,718,729,509,813 | 3-big-ai-companies-lose-10-of-marke | JonathanRay | Will 3 Big AI Companies lose 10% of market cap in a single day (AI Bubble Pop) by 2025? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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"text": "I just noticed the market had gone back up since last I shorted. Not only is five months a short time frame, but what if the crash takes...two days to ... | Michael Wheatley | du2tane7kn | public | contract | 1,718,729,573,885 | 3-big-ai-companies-lose-10-of-marke | MichaelWheatley | Will 3 Big AI Companies lose 10% of market cap in a single day (AI Bubble Pop) by 2025? | s8koq95dec | 0.363893 | 3,945.508933 | NO | null | |
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"text": "It's very close at first glance, the mean book (excluding two outliers which appear to be breaks) takes 2.14 years to write, which comes really close t... | Interrobang | 8sm1uk5j7k | public | contract | 1,718,729,733,670 | will-author-steven-brust-complete-t | Interrobang | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaoSVG-ubMKwZ3V3nCKNL-deCRpMdJpvx6fA4y_csw6mvskHA=s96-c | Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028? | null | 0.5 | 944.662386 | YES | null |
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"text": "Thanks, I put that in my bio.",
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],
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],
"type": "doc"
} | redcat | r39evrmajn | public | contract | 1,718,729,738,871 | will-i-write-a-poem-in-2024 | redcat | Will I write a poem in 2024? | w5fd16yphul | null | null | null | null | |
acmzgptaerv | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
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"text": "Good point. SPY dropping 10% in a calendar day has only happened 4 times in the last 100 years. But if you narrowed the index to tech large caps that... | Jonathan Ray | du2tane7kn | public | contract | 1,718,729,901,749 | 3-big-ai-companies-lose-10-of-marke | JonathanRay | Will 3 Big AI Companies lose 10% of market cap in a single day (AI Bubble Pop) by 2025? | s8koq95dec | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Jacy | 4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL | public | contract | 1,718,730,082,661 | will-apples-next-iphone-2024-includ | Jacy | Will Apple’s next iPhone (2024) include an on-device LLM “ChatBot”? | 4uto6b97l5x | 0.913973 | 1,151.783564 | YES | null | |
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"text": "I'm sure many people around you appreciate you for the dumb bitch you are and aspire to be a dumb bitch like you one day. ❤ ",
"type": "text"... | redcat | GUIVletwpgvH8NEwL6eL | public | contract | 1,718,730,112,574 | will-i-stop-being-a-such-a-dumb-bit | redcat | Will I stop being a such a dumb bitch in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
4meircfhv3i | false | jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32 | {
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... | Hyperlincoln | usgGPFgmigSZBtDpgOms | public | contract | 1,718,730,182,043 | will-disney-win-their-lawsuit-again | Hyperlincoln | Will Disney win their lawsuit against Ron DeSantis? | 72jnuuye3ob | 0.014517 | 5,783.459188 | NO | null | |
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"hideCloseButton": nu... | Eli Lifland | glg8vtPHFQYFPxZDAENl | public | contract | 1,718,730,195,412 | will-nvida-become-the-largest-compa | EliLifland | Will NVIDIA become the largest company in the world (by market cap) before the end of 2030? | null | 0.929833 | 4,904.777824 | YES | null | |
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"text": "That was pretty fast!",
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],
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"type": "doc"
} | Eli Tyre | glg8vtPHFQYFPxZDAENl | public | contract | 1,718,730,233,659 | will-nvida-become-the-largest-compa | EliTyre | Will NVIDIA become the largest company in the world (by market cap) before the end of 2030? | 7yto4bj0asb | 0.929833 | 569.20617 | YES | null | |
smkyxs1948 | false | W2xr0kmXVqg4SzEQltvfpWOsAFO2 | {
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"text": "Popes have been around for 24,000 months without announcing the second coming of Christ, so our priors should be low.",
"type": "text"
... | Gracious | wua2o670j8 | public | contract | 1,718,730,379,946 | will-the-pope-announce-the-second-c | GG | Will the pope announce the second coming of Jesus Christ within the next 30 days ? | null | 0.023163 | 51.230906 | NO | null | |
82txfew2y5c | false | y0ZRYqguQQU3W2wD87kFsgT9M4j2 | {
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"text": "Always bet on the side of love 😎",
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"type": "doc"
} | Pazzaz | OF26IPrEWIOXinkWAYh2 | public | contract | 1,718,730,702,133 | will-she-like-me-back | Pazzaz | Will she like me back | null | 1 | 41.608699 | YES | null | |
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... | Logan Turner | TzLFeXvVPuS7d7xgxunI | public | contract | 1,718,730,704,801 | will-twitter-still-exist-by-end-of | LoganTurner | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxb6lOFoLQos2HX7enoLuYEiJqPW11HpUxAX9AsB8w=s96-c | Will Twitter still exist as "Twitter"? (2024) | null | 0.37127 | 1,459.725091 | NO | null |
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... | SirCryptomind | usgGPFgmigSZBtDpgOms | public | contract | 1,718,731,076,281 | will-disney-win-their-lawsuit-again | SirCryptomind | Will Disney win their lawsuit against Ron DeSantis? | 72jnuuye3ob | null | null | null | null | |
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"text": "legal fees totaled 260M, vs the entire FTX future fund spent 190M in its final year of operation",
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"t... | Jonathan Ray | xuiu84aofl | public | contract | 1,718,731,124,407 | what-is-the-fairest-rule-about-claw | JonathanRay | What is the FAIREST rule about clawing back FTX money from the charities that the FTX Future Fund gave to? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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"alt": null... | chris (strutheo) | kuy46mxhg4 | public | contract | 1,718,731,198,520 | is-djt-real | strutheo | Is $DJT real? | null | 0.524615 | 9.446583 | NO | null | |
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"l... | chris (strutheo) | 3ont4nhj91 | public | contract | 1,718,731,253,864 | will-domer-win-his-70k-bet-against | strutheo | Will @Domer win his $70k bet against Martin Shkreli over the authenticity of $DJT coin? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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"l... | chris (strutheo) | 3ont4nhj91 | public | contract | 1,718,731,348,519 | will-domer-win-his-70k-bet-against | strutheo | Will @Domer win his $70k bet against Martin Shkreli over the authenticity of $DJT coin? | null | null | null | null | null | |
nbckxt4s72 | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
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"type"... | Jonathan Ray | tr9b02u0f5 | public | contract | 1,718,731,353,477 | what-weird-unexpected-things-will-c | JonathanRay | What weird unexpected things will correlate with being a conservative in my planned omnibus correlational survey? | mgp2i2jqc67 | null | 691.309005 | NO | 4v9nv0nncw | |
dc4nod815g | false | h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2 | {
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"typ... | Benjamin Ikuta | ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl | public | contract | 1,718,731,487,227 | will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c | benjaminIkuta | Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024? | 87aoyh10rhp | null | null | null | null | |
lfjo643m1r | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
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"l... | chris (strutheo) | 4p4z5emli8 | public | contract | 1,718,731,550,291 | will-martin-shkreli-pay-domer-20000 | strutheo | Will Martin Shkreli pay Domer $20,000 USD or more as a result of their bet by the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
sx6753usnws | false | vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2 | {
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"text": "Don't worry any more about this guy. He couldn't even bother to spell \"GTFO\" correctly.",
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"type": "... | Forrest Taylor | ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl | public | contract | 1,718,731,860,823 | will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c | TiredCliche | Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024? | 87aoyh10rhp | 1 | 50.683162 | YES | null | |
odmmekqjvo | false | GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72 | {
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"text": "Hmm, good point, obviously there’s no way you could possibly realize any pnl before resolution /s",
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"... | Ansel | b2v3iudszf | public | contract | 1,718,731,992,961 | resolves-yes-on-jan-1-2029 | Ansel | Resolves YES on Jan 1 2029 | w72olt8ike | null | null | null | null | |
fjybfyqmpa4 | false | Zw9XxaPwnhcnonDn1JLkytXAuLz1 | {
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"text": "Resolving 50%. I'm now realizing this is quite ambiguous between getting ANY release date in 2024 vs the release date itself being in 2024.",
... | Ryan Rothweiler | ijVAr9yOrOw9LLaua6vF | public | contract | 1,718,732,008,279 | will-metroid-prime-4-get-a-release | RyanRothweiler | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIwcP3mMh39-xvZ9ooY62I-FOtc2IX8KQaN2LDz_qUHkkA=s96-c | Will Metroid Prime 4 get a release date in 2024. | null | null | null | null | null |
pntwwr4bpr | false | UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1 | {
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"text": "my actual belief on this is like 15%. I am bearish on rapid recursive self improvement because LLM NNs are ridiculously large and complicated relative... | Jonathan Ray | BKr7KGDSkT6U3dGlqxIk | public | contract | 1,718,732,128,758 | will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8 | JonathanRay | Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? | null | 0.06978 | 1,180,449.841793 | NO | null | |
rwgqhl754n | false | BM7WDql3V0fOWBtlc2s4ITzUPZ32 | {
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"text": "What fraction of them have been not attracted to men?",
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],
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"type": "doc... | Eli Tyre | qi6H5uRFpxRRpWceWlhw | public | contract | 1,718,732,304,578 | will-i-have-a-girlfriend-in-2024 | EliTyre | Will I have a girlfriend in 2024? | 7ou94o2kysy | null | null | null | null | |
0741npmbn41b | false | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | {
"content": [
{
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"text": "Great question. I'm leaning no. This forecasting product too closely resembles a lone non-famous analyst to pass the obscurity criterion.",
"... | cshunter | kjjkolx3od | public | contract | 1,718,732,487,253 | which-2024-us-presidential-election | cash | Which 2024 US presidential election forecasting product will be the most accurate? | w2o01oa6dl | null | null | null | null | |
t4c6sf0vf6 | false | DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2 | {
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"t... | Kevin Blawd | ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl | public | contract | 1,718,732,490,571 | will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c | KevinBlaw | Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024? | 87aoyh10rhp | 1 | 342.376212 | NO | null | |
d73p726qya7 | false | GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72 | {
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"text": "Am I right in concluding that only one of these can resolve yes? So they are actually dependent?",
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}
],
"t... | Ansel | G0m40MW0WYOyqhxP2hDr | public | contract | 1,718,732,557,107 | what-will-be-the-biggest-crisis-fac | Ansel | What will be the biggest crisis faced by Singapore in 2024? | null | null | 25.799628 | NO | 8a0a13c5a158 | |
p1s4apt2ih | false | RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2 | {
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... | Arky | I8yB7icOb23488xVJkYw | public | contract | 1,718,733,250,613 | what-year-will-the-next-major-legen | Arky | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c | What year will the next major Legend of Zelda game be released? | null | null | 270.550468 | YES | 2f0a9898ef51 |
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