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vwv7n1cv6go
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will you use a tweet/retweet by Elon Musk to resolve this market? Or is there another source you'll use?", "type": "text" } ], ...
singer
3pgl26r5lo
public
contract
1,718,761,958,857
how-many-monthly-active-users-will-30xb5limua
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
How many monthly active users will X (formerly Twitter) have by August 1, 2024?
n2bxgyppojf
null
0
YES
dupeelr6x7
bxrx9uugg3o
false
MAAD1J6G9lXzi01YGIiKAvh8KAN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I agree, 80% with an error margin of plus or minus 40. Keep buying YES, I need more time to load up the boat before the market goes down again.", ...
Dustin
1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM
public
contract
1,718,762,089,725
will-jimmy-carter-become-a-centenar
Dustin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhOa--qvfxnXT1JfaOu1QgWzLbV_gIUyiQ7sh4hoQ=s96-c
Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?
5646sliz8bl
0.53857
57,980.152518
NO
null
o6rux072mon
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does anyone ( ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2", "labe...
Genzy
usgGPFgmigSZBtDpgOms
public
contract
1,718,762,101,759
will-disney-win-their-lawsuit-again
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
Will Disney win their lawsuit against Ron DeSantis?
null
null
null
null
null
zra5od12bq
false
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "got to make myself extra beautiful otherwise maybe Em will get cold feet! ;)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Carson Gale
ukksz6xkhg
public
contract
1,718,762,118,939
will-i-lose-20-lbs-after-taking-sem
CarsonGale
https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae
Will I lose 20+ lbs after taking semaglutide for 3 months?
dnvvl1l36sa
null
null
null
null
r1x1vl1g5pc
false
HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rEem4T5lzMZU5rX3KjYKmtQErTD3", "label": "ColinC", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Conflux
jpoumkQ0LAc0M0zmm1c6
public
contract
1,718,762,720,190
will-i-get-a-jobinternship-at-manif
Conflux
https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17
Will I get a job/internship at Manifold by end of 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
9y8nqnjwa9g
false
DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "My bet wasn’t epistemic. I bought all my yes shares a few hours ago hoping to profit from any no holders selling early to avoid controversy during reso...
TonyPepperoni 🪿
usgGPFgmigSZBtDpgOms
public
contract
1,718,762,897,300
will-disney-win-their-lawsuit-again
TonyPepperoni
https://firebasestorage.…884-fdf2cfdcaefb
Will Disney win their lawsuit against Ron DeSantis?
o6rux072mon
0.01392
0
YES
null
w6jdm3trg5
false
YbnECWNY20NMmfBiN4Tk3HLmWKu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12", "label": "JimFix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Declan Bransfield
udrlhld59z
public
contract
1,718,763,210,726
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-ke0olofejl
DeclanBransfield
https://firebasestorage.…136-09a3b03b076b
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on June 19 than it closed on June 18?
null
null
null
null
null
zqbaguu7z4
false
j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "label": "NcyRocks", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Jim Hays
Mp35uAbj24HVW9PXCFtx
public
contract
1,718,763,448,145
after-tears-of-the-kingdom-will-the
JimHays
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5OSur1iRh2XJCBqWybZBd64MFALBZbO6xjTAxCmAM=s96-c
After "Tears of the Kingdom", will there be another new 3D Zelda on the Switch?
null
0.105227
1,151.982685
YES
null
ei66zkr1wbq
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "martin is now in a twitter space claiming he bet such that he cant lose, and he's interpreting the bet to mean ANY member of trump's family (like barro...
chris (strutheo)
4p4z5emli8
public
contract
1,718,764,300,047
will-martin-shkreli-pay-domer-20000
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Martin Shkreli pay @Domer ~$30,000 USD or more as a result of their bet by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
kmtjglg1abb
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "martin is now in a twitter space claiming he bet such that he cant lose, and he's interpreting the bet to mean ANY member of trump's family (like barro...
chris (strutheo)
3ont4nhj91
public
contract
1,718,764,305,668
will-domer-win-his-70k-bet-against
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will @Domer win his $70k bet against Martin Shkreli over the authenticity of $DJT on Solana?
null
null
null
null
null
gr84ddrms0v
false
eFMosWaMkGVGJddp2sIPDSedc543
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Great point. I guess even the new york times lawsuit didn't seem to matter much? Not to mention how much more coverage there will be as models become m...
George Ingebretsen
5M2I0YYBYCstkwDI3yDK
public
contract
1,718,764,815,207
will-openai-pay-scientific-publishe
GeorgeIngebretsen
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJi89sU0DZMoJJkzv8KNIjmY9FXm71_XKd5xYy_oPaV3rQ=s96-c
Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?
0bnsb2iippwk
0.498686
37.550858
NO
null
cny7j3d9ebb
false
XpgYJDQoowbFUY5iSAjzxgKtNgC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Unfortunately the resolution criteria I wrote is about my own setup, not the majority of people's setup. Fortunately it seems to work now.", ...
Savio Mak
MuLx7lL0NSRNP2beYSP3
public
contract
1,718,765,265,543
will-discord-web-stop-completely-ta
SavioMak
https://firebasestorage.…de8-28222b5121b5
Will discord (web) stop completely taking over Ctrl+Shift+T before 2025?
7wiw493wgw
0.763248
0
NO
null
3drzw28q79
false
XpgYJDQoowbFUY5iSAjzxgKtNgC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves YES", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { ...
Savio Mak
MuLx7lL0NSRNP2beYSP3
public
contract
1,718,765,330,904
will-discord-web-stop-completely-ta
SavioMak
https://firebasestorage.…de8-28222b5121b5
Will discord (web) stop completely taking over Ctrl+Shift+T before 2025?
null
0.763248
0
NO
null
xcev4u9sm2
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Good point, I suspect Trump's actual religion is Trumpism.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type":...
Timothy Johnson
pbvm3wudwXMrJETmQkv2
public
contract
1,718,765,652,517
what-religion-will-the-next-preside
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
What Religion will the next President of the US be?
oh2ko6hhmo
null
null
null
null
d3ewxfdv29s
false
eieeU345lwUIithZDydMfum1WKG2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93", "label": "Gen", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Alex Litzenberger
2sl9edpima
public
contract
1,718,765,693,990
what-will-be-true-of-the-manifold-x
alexlitz
https://firebasestorage.…fc2-2c228e26fbd4
What will be true of the Manifold X / Twitter Community on July 31st
null
null
1,549.439355
YES
j05ypb6ze5
l0011ddw4g8
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
chris (strutheo)
2d3t6viyr8
public
contract
1,718,765,697,254
which-celebrity-will-be-rank-1-on-t
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
💀Which celebrity will be rank #1 on the DeathList 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
null
null
null
cq963sn70mp
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
chris (strutheo)
umn46wnr6y
public
contract
1,718,765,707,548
which-celebrities-will-be-on-the-de
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
💀Which celebrities will be on the DeathList 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
null
null
null
ffszoy36mm
false
eieeU345lwUIithZDydMfum1WKG2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Alex Litzenberger
2sl9edpima
public
contract
1,718,765,730,153
what-will-be-true-of-the-manifold-x
alexlitz
https://firebasestorage.…fc2-2c228e26fbd4
What will be true of the Manifold X / Twitter Community on July 31st
d3ewxfdv29s
null
1,549.439355
YES
j05ypb6ze5
c0jsn20qpdh
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "hmm I was unsure if I should do \"on July 31st\" or \"by July 31st\", but I think it'll be less exciting if I don't tick the boxes as we go, so I will ...
Genzy
2sl9edpima
public
contract
1,718,765,807,963
what-will-be-true-of-the-manifold-x
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
What will be true of the Manifold X / Twitter Community on July 31st
d3ewxfdv29s
null
317.247834
YES
j05ypb6ze5
bqaeczgwakl
false
eieeU345lwUIithZDydMfum1WKG2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ah yeah didn’t catch that ambiguity in the wording makes sense", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "ty...
Alex Litzenberger
2sl9edpima
public
contract
1,718,765,930,465
what-will-be-true-of-the-manifold-x
alexlitz
https://firebasestorage.…fc2-2c228e26fbd4
What will be true of the Manifold X / Twitter Community by July 31st
d3ewxfdv29s
null
1,549.439355
YES
j05ypb6ze5
pl9ttidd3e8
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yes, the reason is that linked multiple choice markets cannot resolve some options early. we're going to have to wait for sora to be available before a...
Bayesian
sk0wpbXnTSNpR7j92d4K
public
contract
1,718,766,108,092
when-will-openais-sora-be-publicly
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
When will OpenAI's Sora be publicly available?
wzhybzwypjd
null
758.135168
YES
58fda0ddb276
7rh5gd7qgxc
false
95LgqX2ngfhRrnvy0tegLHkrWtv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "oh i see", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Long 🐹
sk0wpbXnTSNpR7j92d4K
public
contract
1,718,766,140,096
when-will-openais-sora-be-publicly
long
https://firebasestorage.…fb5-b91dfd3608f6
When will OpenAI's Sora be publicly available?
wzhybzwypjd
null
2,000.801732
NO
ecdb012a2c1d
5l7o21hdutq
false
04wvS0E3jSZCB9PgL6IKCWKDEMi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Guys, it's literally insane to vote yes for Kansas and no for Nebraska. They are functionally the same state ", "type": "text" } ...
Ij Kayone
uonmssaf5v
public
contract
1,718,766,405,485
which-of-the-following-states-does
ijk1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdhu4bCTNc1n-E1g0iffYUWC8ePwAl4pFxyvk4YrUxDTOLE=s96-c
Which of the following states does Manifold think is in the Midwest?
null
null
83.458649
YES
x25jq5g5yk
ufv18352ym
false
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2", "label": "JimHays", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
N.C. Young
Mp35uAbj24HVW9PXCFtx
public
contract
1,718,766,801,826
after-tears-of-the-kingdom-will-the
NcyRocks
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
After "Tears of the Kingdom", will there be another new 3D Zelda on the Switch?
zqbaguu7z4
0.410045
69.166667
NO
null
zl6z4ljfc1d
false
pp3fg6e4EybziUJVfMKaDNDAOVh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yeah there are a ton of markets on predicting AI development, those have been around for a long time but now those on specific scientific issues are gr...
mario pasquato
hWHLDEFyNVWnPV838Qpl
public
contract
1,718,766,976,697
where-will-the-einstein-telescope-b
mariopasquato
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtemzqYFS4zuvOtBu7Ko52uxERLtlEzFHTvhCP-noDEfACs=s96-c
Where will the Einstein Telescope be built?
f6e3dzobpgk
null
14.454526
YES
b68549e8e709
lgl7ythcs
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
SirCryptomind
5bspd4Kx9spEydEU9GHe
public
contract
1,718,767,235,003
what-event-will-happen-first-nhl-ch
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
What Event Will Happen First: NHL Champion is Crowned OR Verstappen <1 Finish?
null
null
null
null
null
pvz0otdzr6
false
6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "They only call out to openAI for special cases that their own homemade AI can't handle well.", "type": "text" } ], "type"...
James Baker
8Y9DYtyVhyjXi5cuS8ri
public
contract
1,718,768,030,195
will-apple-launch-a-chatgpt-competi
JamesBaker3
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c
Will Apple launch a ChatGPT competitor before the end of 2024
gsmv3egatgu
0.169948
359.703521
YES
null
a73rp4d22xm
false
H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hedging", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { ...
Andrew G
nrV4fC7fqq9yxzMtWp33
public
contract
1,718,768,052,528
will-dean-preston-be-reelected-to-t
AndrewG
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c
Will Dean Preston be re-elected to the SF Board of Supervisors in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
r2i81n3gbh
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I would expect unless you have reason to think otherwise that this won’t be tested before 2026? Which if true puts the meaningfulness of the prediction...
Bayesian
tr2nw3zet2
public
contract
1,718,768,531,964
before-2026-will-dl-systems-outperf
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it?
null
null
null
null
null
eyy9q47q87i
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "‘Is also active’ does this mean by market close, or at time of market creation?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph"...
Bayesian
vzh5vdx2p2
public
contract
1,718,768,872,079
are-there-any-manifolders-active-on
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Are there any Manifolders active on Bittensor?
null
null
null
null
null
ssg57zo2ncp
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Closed the market while we deliberate", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
8Y9DYtyVhyjXi5cuS8ri
public
contract
1,718,768,966,173
will-apple-launch-a-chatgpt-competi
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will Apple launch a ChatGPT competitor before the end of 2024
null
null
null
null
null
9kjnzfg1d96
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "if it isnt i will riot", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
kfcjexx0rw
public
contract
1,718,768,972,590
will-the-spaceballs-sequel-be-calle
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the Spaceballs sequel be called "Spaceballs 2: The Search for More Money"?
null
null
null
null
null
yc9nnkzxltq
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Elon is priced in", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
pfj1hdrcm6
public
contract
1,718,769,072,786
will-tesla-overtake-nvidia-in-marke
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will Tesla overtake NVIDIA in market cap before 2030?
null
50
593.548458
NO
null
p5h5e1wyhsk
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
jim
4S6yzGYCj0cxiNDZpxZk
public
contract
1,718,769,118,771
will-martin-shkreli-return-to-priso
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Will Martin Shkreli return to prison before 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
21socpblzjc
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Haws
g98bfvctn8
public
contract
1,718,769,475,684
tuesday-dice-roll-what-number-will
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Tuesday Dice roll - What number will they land on?
null
null
271.450173
YES
opc1py9vlh
ngr9ya70ri
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Haws
g98bfvctn8
public
contract
1,718,769,544,401
tuesday-dice-roll-what-number-will
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Tuesday Dice roll - What number will they land on?
null
null
271.450173
YES
opc1py9vlh
giq0rrtfnte
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Called the rolls, the bot is probably slow. I will wait to see the bot reply.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Haws
g98bfvctn8
public
contract
1,718,769,578,868
tuesday-dice-roll-what-number-will
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Tuesday Dice roll - What number will they land on?
null
null
271.450173
YES
opc1py9vlh
kqzu8vohvx
false
EKnSYyz71XadjA1gChNwxubpp6J3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The last time the NASDAQ crashed more than 10% in a single day was on 16 March 2020.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "parag...
Jonas Vollmer
du2tane7kn
public
contract
1,718,769,581,344
3-big-ai-companies-lose-10-of-marke
JonasVollmer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqZTipfMh8me9ID8kOWIN_e0cMRyQ68DN8Ikyk2p3E=s96-c
Will 3 Big AI Companies lose 10% of market cap in a single day (AI Bubble Pop) by 2025?
s8koq95dec
0.37
157.545221
NO
null
vnedsw10gn
false
EKnSYyz71XadjA1gChNwxubpp6J3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Jonas Vollmer
du2tane7kn
public
contract
1,718,769,805,060
3-big-ai-companies-lose-10-of-marke
JonasVollmer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqZTipfMh8me9ID8kOWIN_e0cMRyQ68DN8Ikyk2p3E=s96-c
Will 3 Big AI Companies lose 10% of market cap in a single day (AI Bubble Pop) by 2025?
s8koq95dec
0.37
157.545221
NO
null
efn2om9ngra
false
EKnSYyz71XadjA1gChNwxubpp6J3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "All the biggest single-day price moves of the last couple decades.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], ...
Jonas Vollmer
du2tane7kn
public
contract
1,718,769,823,058
3-big-ai-companies-lose-10-of-marke
JonasVollmer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqZTipfMh8me9ID8kOWIN_e0cMRyQ68DN8Ikyk2p3E=s96-c
Will 3 Big AI Companies lose 10% of market cap in a single day (AI Bubble Pop) by 2025?
s8koq95dec
0.37
157.545221
NO
null
otm3yvuojo
false
04wvS0E3jSZCB9PgL6IKCWKDEMi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "To elaborate on this a little: the Midwest is states where, if you ask someone from somewhere else what the state is about, they’ll probably say “I dun...
Ij Kayone
uonmssaf5v
public
contract
1,718,769,908,069
which-of-the-following-states-does
ijk1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdhu4bCTNc1n-E1g0iffYUWC8ePwAl4pFxyvk4YrUxDTOLE=s96-c
Which of the following states does Manifold think is in the Midwest?
5l7o21hdutq
null
83.458649
YES
x25jq5g5yk
04clp9mbt0g
false
EKnSYyz71XadjA1gChNwxubpp6J3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ">5% daily drawdowns", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, ...
Jonas Vollmer
du2tane7kn
public
contract
1,718,769,962,008
3-big-ai-companies-lose-10-of-marke
JonasVollmer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqZTipfMh8me9ID8kOWIN_e0cMRyQ68DN8Ikyk2p3E=s96-c
Will 3 Big AI Companies lose 10% of market cap in a single day (AI Bubble Pop) by 2025?
s8koq95dec
0.37
491.896319
NO
null
s71qzqmny3
false
04wvS0E3jSZCB9PgL6IKCWKDEMi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "oh, I forgot Idaho. Mountain West, duh.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ij Kayone
uonmssaf5v
public
contract
1,718,769,967,839
which-of-the-following-states-does
ijk1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdhu4bCTNc1n-E1g0iffYUWC8ePwAl4pFxyvk4YrUxDTOLE=s96-c
Which of the following states does Manifold think is in the Midwest?
5l7o21hdutq
null
83.458649
YES
x25jq5g5yk
w3idgg992r
false
Dfb1xQjetuXPPiyPLjdPEUGBQqn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This market resolves NO if we don’t have good experimental evidence or it’s not obviously clear that AI systems can meet this threshold. However, I’m a...
AdamK
tr2nw3zet2
public
contract
1,718,770,071,322
before-2026-will-dl-systems-outperf
AdamK
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHzjbR-fCoxMW9TGbF-Z4OV-3B2ZW-hZ9mj-fDVg=s96-c
Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it?
r2i81n3gbh
0.66
675.520529
YES
null
9881hxn8yem
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pat Scott🩴
4p4z5emli8
public
contract
1,718,770,098,370
will-martin-shkreli-pay-domer-20000
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will Martin Shkreli pay @Domer ~$30,000 USD or more as a result of their bet by the end of 2024?
ei66zkr1wbq
0.29783
80.247674
NO
null
mdah6fxp7h8
false
1g8P6pHRRLg4kaRxAMKyCCXn2mb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Can you give us some more info about your eating habits? Do you know approximately how many calories you eat per day on average in a typical week? How ...
NBAP
ukksz6xkhg
public
contract
1,718,770,133,139
will-i-lose-20-lbs-after-taking-sem
NBAP
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNBAP%2FqpSlMKH-74.57?alt=media&token=115d6799-daaf-47c9-8a52-f318b0a9688e
Will I lose 20+ lbs after taking semaglutide for 3 months?
null
null
null
null
null
i2kdj3smtq9
false
X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3-2 Panthers lead. Oilers ain't giving it up easy", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Keenen W
rLpQRag0vJXpS1lHeUVS
public
contract
1,718,770,356,051
will-dallas-starsedmonton-oilers-be
KeenenW
https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb
Will Edmonton Oilers beat Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Finals?
null
null
null
null
null
pvajz3gzy2
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Haws
2dX7Mwz7rvBhSXNXczPC
public
contract
1,718,771,069,251
nhl-finals-game-1-oilers-vs-panther
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
NHL finals game 1: Oilers vs Panthers
null
null
null
null
null
ywyro5ykxvg
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "upgraded to basic ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "...
chris (strutheo)
ii4d7faxzp
public
contract
1,718,771,240,459
will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-hl44chqzn4
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
itavjodimc
false
8dboiK130XNESzFh0uztbNkfcxa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm having trouble with the dates in this question. Wikipedia says 205 days [1], which would end November 20, ", "type": "text" }, ...
Will
tx3o5a4q82
public
contract
1,718,771,637,517
will-nycs-city-of-yes-for-housing-o
wrhall
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLy8Q3CWCvkDqnporNAUQ-xDxOZHF8NzmJa32mXx3Dw5kDlqRfw=s96-c
Will NYC's "City of Yes for Housing Opportunity" parking reform proposal succeed?
null
null
null
null
null
ygh0ywv9h5a
false
ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You may end up quitting it or taking a low dose if the side effects are intolerable. But otherwise, yes, I think you’ll lose the 20 pounds.", ...
Craig Talbert
ukksz6xkhg
public
contract
1,718,772,335,689
will-i-lose-20-lbs-after-taking-sem
CraigTalbert
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c
Will I lose 20+ lbs after taking semaglutide for 3 months?
null
0.310547
152.865956
YES
null
mk86p05cwb8
false
7nZuIaKpNoacvSBAmaFnrndh3x13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "@", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
Tunnel Rush
sobdKVm0RdKuSVSQ7ZAX
public
contract
1,718,772,390,437
will-elon-musk-make-another-comment
TunnelRush
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLOrDvZ1ont_B62BQt75BGr1Rs9SqGRJzASsbMbe5_HD5C_U-s=s96-c
Will Elon Musk make another comment about Dogecoin on X/Twitter?
null
null
null
null
null
tecrpkz4uun
false
YbnECWNY20NMmfBiN4Tk3HLmWKu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Declan Bransfield
6vrwhhtl1w
public
contract
1,718,772,516,954
who-will-end-up-winning-in-va05
DeclanBransfield
https://firebasestorage.…136-09a3b03b076b
Who will end up winning in VA05?
null
null
170.982595
NO
cjzvml9d00
guz7xj6c4gc
false
HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Your wording of the question is messed up. Your resolving says \"is\" extinct in 2100 but the title says \"becomes extinct sometime before 2100\" ", ...
Timothy Bandors
656Q5c9NEIosaUCVN3wQ
public
contract
1,718,772,617,244
will-the-baijichinese-river-dolphin
TimothyBandors
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcw5cD4NDESa0IBg9dcxZMuZHrXSqKGycGYx3y_noFFKqs=s96-c
Will the Baiji, a.k.a. Chinese River Dolphin (Lipotes vexillifer) become extinct in the current century?
null
null
null
null
null
fsbfycr9fd
false
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "My typical day looks like: ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": ...
Carson Gale
ukksz6xkhg
public
contract
1,718,772,961,276
will-i-lose-20-lbs-after-taking-sem
CarsonGale
https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae
Will I lose 20+ lbs after taking semaglutide for 3 months?
mdah6fxp7h8
null
null
null
null
kwb4uqauwji
false
faAZQRWR2YTPZJAYEXhw56ydDHL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sunak already went to Italy....", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris Mills
JxGvS9vB4oiHStwIi6f0
public
contract
1,718,773,135,712
which-countries-will-the-uk-prime-m
ChrisMillsc5f7
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLmttkO7a_SkKKmgvJV_wh3BtRxvZZxf0PCf1Z7MbCn=s96-c
Which countries will the UK Prime Minister visit in 2024?
null
null
120.175302
YES
31bb1e75b948
5vy21ndln7x
false
sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "DKEIWnUtpDgTXVKdi40YGWj6f7x1", "label": "creator", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ben Shindel
3ont4nhj91
public
contract
1,718,773,262,668
will-domer-win-his-70k-bet-against
benshindel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c
Will @Domer win his $70k bet against Martin Shkreli over the authenticity of $DJT on Solana?
null
0.903738
110.528473
YES
null
2iustw1ms7n
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think it's better to resolve on eg manifold mod judgement as opposed to polymarket given polymarket has resolved markets terribly in the past. The te...
jackson polack
3ont4nhj91
public
contract
1,718,773,466,550
will-domer-win-his-70k-bet-against
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Will @Domer win his $70k bet against Martin Shkreli over the authenticity of $DJT on Solana?
5vy21ndln7x
0.903738
5.920937
YES
null
hvzghi09y84
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "id sooner do domer+shkreli's judgement but not sure if we are privy to the fine details ", "type": "text" }, { "att...
chris (strutheo)
3ont4nhj91
public
contract
1,718,773,532,937
will-domer-win-his-70k-bet-against
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will @Domer win his $70k bet against Martin Shkreli over the authenticity of $DJT on Solana?
5vy21ndln7x
null
null
null
null
wi4f4203i2b
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "or mods yea", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
3ont4nhj91
public
contract
1,718,773,579,495
will-domer-win-his-70k-bet-against
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will @Domer win his $70k bet against Martin Shkreli over the authenticity of $DJT on Solana?
5vy21ndln7x
null
null
null
null
skvw502tcvp
false
sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm under the assumption there are no more details than this twitter interaction?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragrap...
Ben Shindel
3ont4nhj91
public
contract
1,718,773,799,926
will-domer-win-his-70k-bet-against
benshindel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c
Will @Domer win his $70k bet against Martin Shkreli over the authenticity of $DJT on Solana?
5vy21ndln7x
0.903738
110.528473
YES
null
m6d32695ds
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "see my last comment about what shkreli was just saying in his twitter space, other than that idk", "type": "text" } ], "t...
chris (strutheo)
3ont4nhj91
public
contract
1,718,773,833,640
will-domer-win-his-70k-bet-against
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will @Domer win his $70k bet against Martin Shkreli over the authenticity of $DJT on Solana?
5vy21ndln7x
null
null
null
null
w2qf9oj29q9
false
xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "i could be convinced", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
April
cWyhJjw7Hlj7rCNMmWK5
public
contract
1,718,775,239,498
if-celene-takes-estrogen-will-she-c
April
https://firebasestorage.…097-7fcf7d327177
If @Celene takes estrogen, will she consider it to have a positive effect, neutral effect, or negative effect?
sfyzz1to1ed
0.799493
39.323383
NO
null
152vpelmw5qj
false
T31vZBYtJpaNo0qRuAsnUC0PjvH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Neither are true anymore. The rebrand is complete", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Shihan
TzLFeXvVPuS7d7xgxunI
public
contract
1,718,775,338,407
will-twitter-still-exist-by-end-of
Shihan
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIs8ZfSeIp_wOPEyJo3s5WRmn_BFSZKGYPivVseXj_pbSkznI0e4w=s96-c
Will Twitter still exist as "Twitter"? (2024)
m63aea60ez
0.053271
1,382.292347
NO
null
yez4x9tb29e
false
3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Could you define ‘fight’ and ‘troops’?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, ...
MercurialGuesser
zODXA7FLh4b30TE38qtC
public
contract
1,718,775,419,728
will-poland-deploy-troops-to-fight
OP
https://firebasestorage.…8da-0f20dd0e5cac
Will Poland deploy troops to fight in Ukraine by the end of 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
7m69rrjwuwq
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "noam had a bump in popularity but not might make it 6mo after ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "ty...
chris (strutheo)
i4wpRCjnZYV2PNkMYhbB
public
contract
1,718,775,650,599
a-year-after-jimmy-carter-dies-who
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Six months after Jimmy Carter dies, who will be the primary death market of choice for Manifold users to create/bet on?
null
null
0
NO
0009e482bdfd
sae64m2b15
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "on noam watch", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
h9qI9cMxKZMtXjoUEYNK
public
contract
1,718,775,707,036
who-will-go-to-hell-by-eoy-2025-acc
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
😈Who will go to Hell by EOY 2025 according to Manifold? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
1,505.459401
NO
e4abe05a18bf
9k1edsjx1q7
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
9n8ehxoxzr
public
contract
1,718,775,797,710
will-alan-greenspan-pass-away-befor
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Alan Greenspan pass away before the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
mp48nbm58lg
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
chris (strutheo)
5mf4esizf3
public
contract
1,718,776,080,531
will-ron-jeremy-live-long-enough-fo-72x2ea02yb
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Ron Jeremy live long enough for the first verified instance of human sex on the moon?
null
null
null
null
null
vf2g73guy8i
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
chris (strutheo)
g2vl97yo5d
public
contract
1,718,776,083,176
will-ron-jeremy-live-long-enough-to-rz3igd40ln
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Ron Jeremy live long enough to see the first released sex/porn film shot on the moon?
null
null
null
null
null
09s3dk0cpxog
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "🤔", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
ra12t9hn2a
public
contract
1,718,776,101,434
will-ron-jeremy-live-long-enough-fo
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Ron Jeremy live long enough for the first verified instance of human sex in space?
null
null
null
null
null
7m5zevaib0j
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "🤔", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
4byzlhz2zb
public
contract
1,718,776,104,057
will-ron-jeremy-live-long-enough-to
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Ron Jeremy live long enough to see the first released sex/porn film shot in space?
null
null
null
null
null
82ovmxfgshv
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
chris (strutheo)
c5665q43fa
public
contract
1,718,776,408,480
will-there-be-an-orgy-in-space-by-t
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will there be an orgy in space by the end of 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
ma8pv8m50n
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "bump for input", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
iLxZ2fuvy1diCwgjQ4xJ
public
contract
1,718,776,536,329
which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-ge
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which Hogwarts house do you sort Gendo Ikari into?
null
null
null
null
null
c8s8ue5iq6k
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ptk3lhgoqu", "label": "/strutheo/which-super-smash-bros-64-character-jyz0j66dtz", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null...
chris (strutheo)
4eqilBp71W26jdiDJb9G
public
contract
1,718,776,626,342
which-super-smash-bros-64-character
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which Super Smash Bros 64 character will Manifold users report they most commonly play as?
null
null
11.871151
NO
c599989dec77
8xne01gn8yn
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "let me just say i truly hate the person who started the rumor for later claiming her friend's hearsay as ACADEMIC SOURCES and the prewritten obit that ...
chris (strutheo)
e6Kis76ijStBS5LUeVUE
public
contract
1,718,777,184,809
will-noam-chomsky-be-alive-at-the-e
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Noam Chomsky be alive at the end of 2024?
null
0.223754
0
NO
null
pebu1n73cw
false
uKcjazFwIkhMFvhie6cnANL8MTV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "YES: it's a tropium", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, ...
Karl K.
W6ipqwPi9MuRgDXAotiu
public
contract
1,718,777,277,655
a-successor-word-to-hopium-and-copi
KarlK
https://firebasestorage.…e18-995693e838cc
A successor word to "hopium" and "copium" emerges anytime through 2025
null
null
null
null
null
anr1s4thp4q
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "has a few yrs to go still", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
hXDrFr0tfcwtASTa9naa
public
contract
1,718,777,397,276
will-noam-chomsky-become-a-centenar
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Noam Chomsky become a centenarian?
null
0.152638
153.36767
NO
null
4btp7etp5s1
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "just saw a tweet to the tune of \"I hope Noam recovers well enough to read all of the tributes people have posted for him today\"", "type": "...
stefanie
e6Kis76ijStBS5LUeVUE
public
contract
1,718,777,524,364
will-noam-chomsky-be-alive-at-the-e
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
Will Noam Chomsky be alive at the end of 2024?
8xne01gn8yn
0.223754
5,264.841547
NO
null
v6g9nzaftd
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Shaked Koplewitz
R5VNv4bJN8ssGsfFzY5U
public
contract
1,718,777,536,854
will-5000-gazans-starve-to-death-as
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?
null
null
null
null
null
l3w667ic2sl
false
6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm guessing the complex math actually deters people from trying a gambit", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }...
James Baker
jwkaakx7af
public
contract
1,718,777,625,954
the-market-xtreme-edition
JamesBaker3
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c
"The Market": X-treme Edition
null
0.017225
27.572131
NO
null
8z8akqarje
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Objection to resolution criteria: you should resolve to No if you cannot take semaglutide due to side effects. ", "type": "text" } ...
Rana G
ukksz6xkhg
public
contract
1,718,777,711,864
will-i-lose-20-lbs-after-taking-sem
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
Will I lose 20+ lbs after taking semaglutide for 3 months?
null
0.313571
71.206361
NO
null
5w7lm3l559o
false
uKcjazFwIkhMFvhie6cnANL8MTV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Reddit is possibly a closer comparison than Wikipedia or Fandom, given the scope of the moderator role.", "type": "text" } ], ...
Karl K.
5N5WcX6t3yKRnOnf0dcc
public
contract
1,718,777,736,247
will-anyone-sue-manifold-over-free
KarlK
https://firebasestorage.…e18-995693e838cc
Will anyone sue Manifold over "free labor" concerns before 2026?
98WnHsCOooef12X2Cxy5
null
null
null
null
8t8vngusdfy
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "American brain is either busy banning IVF and lab grown meat or busy with conspiracy theories (a la RFK) or busy protesting for Gaza and BLM", ...
Rana G
nOabYeTVN1MTt8ePN8Wd
public
contract
1,718,777,864,917
will-china-beat-the-usa-to-mars
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
Will China beat the USA to Mars?
null
0.239029
186.307637
YES
null
k1i39ovissf
false
nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why \"correctly resolved\" rather than \"resolved\"?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc"...
David Bolin
k4zrp566gt
public
contract
1,718,777,866,046
will-the-will-jimmy-carter-become-a
DavidBolin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxBDzHEeklms-AzWLaDGByiape0wpIwJKLyGQDu=s96-c
Will the "Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?" market hit 1,000 traders before it is correctly resolved?
null
null
null
null
null
123xl4jnbp7h
false
nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"Empirically\"?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
David Bolin
LSCGFyq8Ptaujx1zQi9g
public
contract
1,718,777,909,547
will-jimmy-carter-live-through-the
DavidBolin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxBDzHEeklms-AzWLaDGByiape0wpIwJKLyGQDu=s96-c
Will Jimmy Carter live through the Spring?
mccsa55t9ac
null
null
null
null
zva6wgk7wkr
false
nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Correct. The longer he goes without major health issues appearing, the more the correct estimate should converge to a standard estimate based on his ag...
David Bolin
1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM
public
contract
1,718,778,034,537
will-jimmy-carter-become-a-centenar
DavidBolin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxBDzHEeklms-AzWLaDGByiape0wpIwJKLyGQDu=s96-c
Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?
g0zz3hupjge
0.53
4,632.15225
YES
null
fy6c9fys62s
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "They gained a lot of ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
Kongo Landwalker
e6Kis76ijStBS5LUeVUE
public
contract
1,718,778,165,453
will-noam-chomsky-be-alive-at-the-e
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Will Noam Chomsky be alive at the end of 2024?
8xne01gn8yn
null
null
null
null
rl14p9mmzbq
false
NkVYTWX3UVUiy2z5fc1SknVeEXt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Can someone explain me something, on the site I see : ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": nu...
dionisos
ii4d7faxzp
public
contract
1,718,778,170,140
will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-hl44chqzn4
dionisos
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaBN5h-fDSn1z_PVqv7Ig7DoyQe7_sl0KXlw4bokw=s96-c
Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2024?
null
0.637196
171.052098
YES
null
7lqcmf8wsf7
false
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Nah I think I would prefer to exclude the noise of having to stop taking it due to side effects. I would rather n/a in that case. ", "type": ...
Carson Gale
ukksz6xkhg
public
contract
1,718,778,200,912
will-i-lose-20-lbs-after-taking-sem
CarsonGale
https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae
Will I lose 20+ lbs after taking semaglutide for 3 months?
8z8akqarje
null
null
null
null
e0krmk3yejs
false
9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That's a statement of public support of Hungary, enough to resolve the market.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Fedor
TZTkteu8g3uE8VN7ZUMg
public
contract
1,718,778,211,439
what-will-happen-before-hungary-end
Fedor
https://firebasestorage.…d6d-1b2c6bbfbc21
What will happen before Hungary endorses Rutte to NATO general secretary? [Add Responses]
08aib1op5x5t
null
384.67473
YES
27500aaef7ca
glf83jbhgng
false
uKcjazFwIkhMFvhie6cnANL8MTV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Any specific graph-connectedness or population requirements for the participants?", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": nu...
Karl K.
c5665q43fa
public
contract
1,718,778,244,705
will-there-be-an-orgy-in-space-by-t
KarlK
https://firebasestorage.…e18-995693e838cc
Will there be an orgy in space by the end of 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
cvmkc30bchu
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "label": "Stralor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
chris (strutheo)
c5665q43fa
public
contract
1,718,778,355,915
will-there-be-an-orgy-in-space-by-t
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will there be an orgy in space by the end of 2030?
glf83jbhgng
null
null
null
null
fdkrfq2cuw
false
NkVYTWX3UVUiy2z5fc1SknVeEXt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
dionisos
ii4d7faxzp
public
contract
1,718,778,721,626
will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-hl44chqzn4
dionisos
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaBN5h-fDSn1z_PVqv7Ig7DoyQe7_sl0KXlw4bokw=s96-c
Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2024?
rl14p9mmzbq
0.637196
171.052098
YES
null
43eqwtclvma
false
uKcjazFwIkhMFvhie6cnANL8MTV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The Declaration of Independence isn't a living document. It's the announcement that the old Congress sent to the world, to say that they were doing a t...
Karl K.
VAtieCUwANpGohUIwChl
public
contract
1,718,778,931,003
will-the-declaration-of-independenc
KarlK
https://firebasestorage.…e18-995693e838cc
Will the Declaration of Independence be edited to change "all men are created equal" to "all people are created equal"?
null
null
null
null
null
hvaprjafamm
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So it's about 13 weeks of semaglutide. Assuming you start at low dose then increase. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "para...
Rana G
ukksz6xkhg
public
contract
1,718,778,980,450
will-i-lose-20-lbs-after-taking-sem
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
Will I lose 20+ lbs after taking semaglutide for 3 months?
null
0.312159
71.206361
NO
null
czzalcgixdq
false
T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
The Wabi Sabi
IhO98oktU4ftKknAVXkb
public
contract
1,718,779,053,928
who-will-be-the-next-nato-general-s
TheWabiSabi
https://firebasestorage.…2ec-cedfd2c3f9b5
Who will be the next NATO general secretary?
null
null
79.08341
NO
518e13cef604
ub3xb90zqrh
false
tsLGbpzbvEZt0Y4tafpjAqCMQeF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does \"cancelled\" also count as \"finished\"?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Noya
e31tqfvu1q
public
contract
1,718,779,254,097
which-manga-series-will-finish-befo
NoyaV
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYZ0_H2vY9Mr8HoT1lAqx7RKtsu8hU7Lk1lx7Gr=s96-c
Which manga series will finish before One Piece does?
null
null
null
null
null
qbpyu8e9pzf
false
526dXtNFxqaw2MlfAQrhXtoBSxG2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm interested in models which are close to 99% accurate at these very simple facts and very simple arithmetic problems, and I want composition perform...
Leo Gao
fv1LwgJNfDzRXg0wPvbv
public
contract
1,718,779,300,930
will-a-big-transformer-lm-compose-t
LeoGao
https://firebasestorage.…e01-f1c4aab5291c
Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026?
jogohekdbk
0.857625
4,235.886968
NO
null
4pmyiiqkznk
false
Nf9JCMARj8cSrQTdpN9z5JMikSJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Kids canonically peel bits of Appletun off and eat them.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "...
Lambda Fairy
YYdw6enjhg6q3H6OgAH5
public
contract
1,718,779,402,023
which-pokemon-would-actually-taste
tfae
https://firebasestorage.…ddb-10ca8d6fc3c7
Which Pokémon would actually taste good? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
110.604811
NO
64259065e7d9