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... | robm | 32xrt2i6kh | public | contract | 1,719,161,121,124 | will-i-cure-my-aphantasia-by-2025 | robm | Will I cure my aphantasia by 2025? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Andrew | 9Y5jpJk8P6ypsgujMvOf | public | contract | 1,719,161,714,650 | luffy-stock | AndrewCrosse | Luffy Stock | null | 0.945006 | 42.894896 | YES | null | |
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... | Greg Rosenthal | VBqLSfQJQJJIDcqQE2cp | public | contract | 1,719,163,009,244 | will-i-have-a-girlfriend-before-i-t | gregrosent | Will I have a girlfriend before I turn 35, and if so how will we meet? | 9az0eedu49 | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Sasha Pomirkovany | juq8iTXz3YSeCIdP49bP | public | contract | 1,719,163,257,997 | will-gpt4opus-report-50-score-on-ar | SashaPomirkovany | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL-837nNwaW2MrxJyUqxfPA_zBaYSRsopRBrVNweLGEs1F7KWg=s96-c | Will GPT4/Opus report >50% score on ARC in 2024? | f5bfn1iqw3u | 0.87 | 1,017.265598 | NO | null |
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... | AhmedButCooler | vhksfzkt5i | public | contract | 1,719,163,396,298 | will-i-be-the-victim-of-an-ai-black | AhmedButCooler | Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031? | null | 0.211504 | 1,471.216744 | NO | null | |
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"content": ... | Tyler | 0583y57tjd | public | contract | 1,719,163,456,329 | which-ai-will-be-the-best-at-the-en-g1kg24yy8h | Tyler31 | Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025? | su1sgb97cuj | null | 42.821362 | YES | svjajsbfb0 | |
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... | Bayesian | RxR5grRyVrDm0wtzhAuM | public | contract | 1,719,163,595,093 | will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025 | Bayesian | Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? | 8cbsz9nwtkx | 0.531023 | 1,145.802945 | NO | null | |
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"text": "This is technically impossible. Given that a regular triangle has sides with an irrational vertical and horizontal component to their length, it is imp... | For Truth | ci8UcK4EjAGiaGZtl5C2 | public | contract | 1,719,168,862,249 | will-any-image-model-available-to-t | ForTruth | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c | Will any image model available to the public be able to reliably produce images of every regular polygon before 2026? | null | 0.162526 | 119.235673 | NO | null |
fsgurcfe4ei | false | uEOtAgU9hlPyOXlYmH3rtTzuxC33 | {
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{
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{
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"text": "I’m surprised 233 isn’t higher given the linear interpolation resolution. If this market stays constant at 264 traders, it will resolve 78.5% 233 and 2... | Adios a mi pisto | hqTQw1GX53g8obtHvgxO | public | contract | 1,719,168,904,173 | how-many-traders-will-this-market-g | Spensicus | How many traders will this market get? | null | null | 2,167.133593 | YES | 991c013217ce | |
8ixotytb6lv | false | 04wvS0E3jSZCB9PgL6IKCWKDEMi2 | {
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{
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"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "Tipping, like, into something?",
"type": "text"
}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Ij Kayone | aLDksw4OAeod9DWK7iDx | public | contract | 1,719,168,905,359 | will-tipping-your-landlord-be-norma | ijk1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdhu4bCTNc1n-E1g0iffYUWC8ePwAl4pFxyvk4YrUxDTOLE=s96-c | Will tipping your landlord be normalized within the next decade? | null | null | null | null | null |
g7rvt44h0rm | false | ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "ah shit I got confused and answered the one who I most wanted as VP, not the one who I thought would be best for Trump",
"type": "text"
... | Zane | 1ck63pp6dh | public | contract | 1,719,169,214,754 | who-among-these-favorites-do-you-th | ZaneMiller | Who among these favorites do you think would be Trump's best VP pick for the best possible results in the election? | null | null | null | null | null | |
lzkcnat0e7 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Q2 ending",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | aHCmNidrZfPY7om4Uysf | public | contract | 1,719,169,243,697 | which-market-will-be-manifolds-favo | strutheo | Which market will be Manifold's favorite market of 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | 0 | NO | 0002a1f27d6e | |
t23uzivoz1f | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "ap confirmed it today",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | yzc8riz6qk | public | contract | 1,719,169,891,308 | will-1000-or-more-hajj-pilgrims-jou | strutheo | Will 1000 or more Hajj pilgrims journeying to Mecca die due to heat in 2024? | null | 0.989646 | 0 | YES | null | |
7wm8fxzo5vr | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "2024 resolved yes - confirmed by ap today",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | v248xds0w5 | public | contract | 1,719,169,904,659 | will-1000-or-more-hajj-pilgrims-jou-halq30bsfm | strutheo | Will 1000 or more Hajj pilgrims journeying to Mecca die due to heat in 2025? | null | null | null | null | null | |
17ft7b91hge | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
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{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Wait I can't add new answers if I've resolved all previous ones? L",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
... | Bayesian | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,719,169,960,228 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | Bayesian | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | null | null | 1,701.206887 | YES | dcab16af26ae | |
qzwxwdhkpos | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
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{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "I give up",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | ROhNAngKx4MsqCC3tCSt | public | contract | 1,719,170,005,727 | what-will-manifold-name-lil-basil-b | Bayesian | What will Manifold name Lil' Basil by the end of April? | null | null | 24.940012 | NO | 1161c3876376 | |
4vsstgx49gi | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
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"text": "So I guess this market is over now? Want to create a new one?",
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}
],
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}
],
"typ... | Timothy Johnson | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,719,170,223,558 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | 17ft7b91hge | null | 310.964223 | YES | e1ac8a167fdf |
itfplxi7igs | false | PrLFEi8ejWUoim7D2ccCGRbrNOS2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Here we go again... fixed.",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Barna | F11YbiKkYZ9saxmK6dSx | public | contract | 1,719,170,822,604 | will-palworlds-player-count-reach-o | Barna | Will Palworld's player count reach or exceed 1 million concurrent players on Steam before 2025? | dnyp81cncka | null | null | null | null | |
ql3wnx4nki8 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "yeahhhhhhh ok",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,719,171,047,423 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | Bayesian | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | 17ft7b91hge | null | 1,701.206887 | YES | dcab16af26ae | |
o2rmt3j4vkf | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "what if I unresolve an option temporarily",
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,719,171,061,728 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | Bayesian | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | 17ft7b91hge | null | 1,701.206887 | YES | dcab16af26ae | |
ue2dhuhs91a | false | vSGfCdrFfrVF51BlDm7rbUt7Bx52 | {
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{
"attrs": null,
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{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "Due to CCP and the Chinese govenment's habit of lying, if any person or o... | Pavel Korytov | VUqgCYoN1MMGXMFV9SYA | public | contract | 1,719,171,079,116 | is-xi-jinping-mentally-retarded | SqrtMinusOne | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI4O9fF7WJn_eb3AeE_edJDWgrhDNbeHBC12UvZ3LwyjoRlDxMyEA=s96-c | Is Xi Jinping mentally retarded? | null | null | null | null | null |
oynsudg7cmh | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "ah ha! I found a solution",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Bayesian | yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses | public | contract | 1,719,171,105,989 | would-you-rather-manifold-chooses | Bayesian | Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses! | 17ft7b91hge | null | 1,701.206887 | YES | dcab16af26ae | |
vb2hsgdxjp | false | yZ4vp93rmQfBXllZUiI2WKNJaeF2 | {
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{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | ElectricSteam | r5mrk7pb1a | public | contract | 1,719,171,396,699 | first-debate-bidenisms-megamarket-w | ElectricSteam | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNq3o7W1unNrbg962fUXzL_KPTLhynNsWcqusZ7gHi-2M=s96-c | First Debate Biden-isms Megamarket: Which exact words/phrases will Biden say? | null | null | null | null | null |
t55thrj1vvn | false | T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1 | {
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{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "I'm sort of halfway between Scott and Caplan on the subject of mental illness being preference. In this case my preference is that I can create memory ... | Tony Gao | 32xrt2i6kh | public | contract | 1,719,171,832,089 | will-i-cure-my-aphantasia-by-2025 | TonyGao | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c | Will I cure my aphantasia by 2025? | q83geohl7vi | null | null | null | null |
heigtpx9hjb | false | 7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73 | {
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{
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],
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{
"attrs": null,
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... | Ponti Min | TNF9DS4mgiGVkky9ssgi | public | contract | 1,719,171,899,837 | will-the-workers-party-of-britain-w | PontiMin | Will the Workers Party of Britain win any seats at the next UK General Election? | null | null | null | null | null | |
38jf28zhsox | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
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{
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{
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}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Pat Scott🩴 | ROhNAngKx4MsqCC3tCSt | public | contract | 1,719,172,074,479 | what-will-manifold-name-lil-basil-b | Stralor | What will Manifold name Lil' Basil by the end of April? | qzwxwdhkpos | null | 43.491353 | YES | 0091d9f25151 | |
o4gz2bwip6p | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
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{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "didn't we vote?? or did it die?",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Pat Scott🩴 | ROhNAngKx4MsqCC3tCSt | public | contract | 1,719,172,093,036 | what-will-manifold-name-lil-basil-b | Stralor | What will Manifold name Lil' Basil by the end of April? | qzwxwdhkpos | null | 43.491353 | YES | 0091d9f25151 | |
pqtk6kmzyfh | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "oh wait, I see the polls now. rip",
"type": "text"
}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Pat Scott🩴 | ROhNAngKx4MsqCC3tCSt | public | contract | 1,719,172,130,642 | what-will-manifold-name-lil-basil-b | Stralor | What will Manifold name Lil' Basil by the end of April? | qzwxwdhkpos | null | 43.491353 | YES | 0091d9f25151 | |
b08b94p3knm | false | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
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"text": "Updated edge case to clarify that a VP backup candidate would not count as Third Party, but as the replacement D or R candidate.",
"type": "t... | Panfilo | KIt0jdJIbdfHTvq7tqCs | public | contract | 1,719,172,245,073 | who-will-the-teamsters-endorse-for | Panfilo | Who will the Teamsters endorse for president in 2024? | null | null | 2,742.172785 | NO | b978fec9e7f4 | |
zjod4hrmhjn | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "Don't the police follow the courts?",
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}
],
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}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | SHcgOjPm9IM4QrGK61jo | public | contract | 1,719,172,470,772 | if-trump-selfpardons-will-the-supre | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | If Trump self-pardons, will the Supreme Court rule the action unconstitutional? | gn0a5mrpfqm | 0.481315 | 9.633557 | YES | null |
tqu143pmhza | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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"text": "Embryo selection for height and attractiveness seem like very stereotypical far-right eugenics, surprised the odds are so low",
"type": "text... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,719,172,747,073 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | null | null | 147.699591 | NO | dcfbedc0e892 |
yw7otk5k9cm | false | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | {
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"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Semiotic Rivalry | SHcgOjPm9IM4QrGK61jo | public | contract | 1,719,173,115,032 | if-trump-selfpardons-will-the-supre | SemioticRivalry | If Trump self-pardons, will the Supreme Court rule the action unconstitutional? | null | 0.566484 | 276.758903 | YES | null | |
ma9uze58z9 | false | zjr9WqBJXCVlBtMlT7Sqr5l3lZH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "538 and realclearpolitics divergence. 538 dropped Rasmussen three months ago. Not sure what other pollster selection adjustments made by 538. ",
... | brian wang | l6vOZFr7LZ3KRsszwDHp | public | contract | 1,719,173,203,010 | will-trump-beat-biden-in-national-p-22b14142a89a | brianwang | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc7vglm2xipIc2J-X98SrL2OEK1QS-ecZ721GHOIQ2euTfa=s96-c | Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of July? (538) | null | 0.529508 | 390.287243 | YES | null |
d7cugzfs64b | false | zjr9WqBJXCVlBtMlT7Sqr5l3lZH2 | {
"content": [
{
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"content": [
{
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"text": "I am dropping out of 538 questions. 538 is going to adjust and drop polls to get and keep a Biden lead. But not clear how much manipulations will be ma... | brian wang | l6vOZFr7LZ3KRsszwDHp | public | contract | 1,719,173,326,288 | will-trump-beat-biden-in-national-p-22b14142a89a | brianwang | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc7vglm2xipIc2J-X98SrL2OEK1QS-ecZ721GHOIQ2euTfa=s96-c | Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of July? (538) | null | 0.527632 | 0 | YES | null |
agyy8ztn6l7 | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
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{
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{
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"text": "interesting one",
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"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | ll19rhs4hy | public | contract | 1,719,173,497,004 | what-websocial-mediainternet-usage | strutheo | What web/social media/internet usage habits will a majority of Manifold users describe as a "red flag"? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | null | null | null | |
runfxdnhdy | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
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"text": "Lil' Basil is actually doing pretty well in its new location in like the east-side big window! But Mr. Basil is doing even better. Market on that btw, ... | Bayesian | ROhNAngKx4MsqCC3tCSt | public | contract | 1,719,173,524,740 | what-will-manifold-name-lil-basil-b | Bayesian | What will Manifold name Lil' Basil by the end of April? | qzwxwdhkpos | null | 24.940012 | NO | 1161c3876376 | |
emw1i5a64mj | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
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{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
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"text": "subsidized ",
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],
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"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | vykjmkeeq8 | public | contract | 1,719,173,579,475 | will-noam-chomsky-and-jimmy-carter | strutheo | Will Noam Chomsky AND Jimmy Carter live to see the AP call the next presidential election? | null | null | null | null | null | |
svunwunrcik | false | JuPdylq620YYzGYlRvqYE7MbbKA3 | {
"content": [
{
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{
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"text": "Letting randos become moderators eventually leads them to tripping on their powers. Happened with Reddit which turned it into an echo chamber of libtar... | Kristian Anders$n | 4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7 | public | contract | 1,719,173,638,786 | did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory | KristianAndersen | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLfCER3HQfMxYpT36bgM9yVTL_16IFTq27qzThy_6nS=s96-c | Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? | lb792xnl9z | 0.554858 | 10,885.208578 | YES | null |
le1hlsoogbo | false | JuPdylq620YYzGYlRvqYE7MbbKA3 | {
"content": [
{
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{
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"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Deleted duplicate comment.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
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],
"type": "doc"
} | Kristian Anders$n | 4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7 | public | contract | 1,719,173,670,674 | did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory | KristianAndersen | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLfCER3HQfMxYpT36bgM9yVTL_16IFTq27qzThy_6nS=s96-c | Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? | lb792xnl9z | 0.554858 | 10,885.208578 | YES | null |
g353jay2n6r | false | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | {
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{
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... | Soli ꩜ | mcpXLHKO4OALZgFfxYKs | public | contract | 1,719,173,759,293 | what-is-gpt2chatbot | Soli | What is “gpt2-chatbot”? | aopbm6h4fkt | null | 0 | YES | f07f08c897e1 | |
5e2cm67vl38 | false | NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
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{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "banned messaging apps that use end-to-end encryption",
"typ... | Josh | ct30h17f23 | public | contract | 1,719,174,042,169 | will-messaging-apps-with-endtoend-e | josh | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx0QJyn3_RlfR7N92j1FntqMP_80imf6p_zLKws=s96-c | Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030? | null | null | null | null | null |
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