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... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | jbpkdp6lx2 | public | contract | 1,719,256,634,436 | add-options-who-would-be-so-good-th | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | [Add options] Who would be so good that Manifold would vote for them over themselves in a presidential election? | null | null | 14.712167 | NO | dpxepl8cqm |
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... | Ziddletwix | ehsZ3t5KWlVPQZAX7fSK | public | contract | 1,719,259,449,641 | by-mid-2024-will-manifold-creators | Ziddletwix | By mid 2024 will manifold creators be able to easily tell if a market they have is profitable? | null | 0.233325 | 367.559585 | NO | null | |
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... | Niko | oiulzk2n00 | public | contract | 1,719,259,477,748 | where-will-anthropics-claude-35-son | Moscow25 | Where will Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet model rank on LMSys Chatbot Arena on July 7th? Ahead of GPT, Gemini? | null | null | 762.486461 | NO | xwnodwmv3u | |
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"text": "it's a little hard to delineate them, but I'd say around 10? -- but they are all somewhat esoteric, and chief among them are a couple which make me mor... | \bot | ahqj671zrt | public | contract | 1,719,259,560,324 | will-i-end-up-with-at-least-3-new-v | bot1mi8f | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcqvuJDtfisXVTdh-TX0s8bLCvdf97OxHHnTT8yRj0oDRk=s96-c | Will I end up with at least 3 new "very intense" kinks before Christmas? | 0dhh9x5fx559 | null | null | null | null |
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... | Niko | oiulzk2n00 | public | contract | 1,719,259,607,101 | where-will-anthropics-claude-35-son | Moscow25 | Where will Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet model rank on LMSys Chatbot Arena on July 7th? Ahead of GPT, Gemini? | 5z9bm45hoxn | null | 762.486461 | NO | xwnodwmv3u | |
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} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | ahqj671zrt | public | contract | 1,719,260,815,059 | will-i-end-up-with-at-least-3-new-v | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Will I end up with at least 3 new "very intense" kinks before Christmas? | 0dhh9x5fx559 | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "This is already decided: Spain is the winner. (Italy is the only team capable of getting six points and even if it wins and Spain loses, Spain will rem... | Petr Kadlec | 3OeowzVShSxknpNkO82d | public | contract | 1,719,261,034,489 | group-b-winner-uefa-euro-2024 | PetrKadlec | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp569aDAbE8XcRnTjoJrO9c1Jec-R2-OHPcyMkzQhg=s96-c | Group B Winner ⚽ UEFA Euro 2024 | null | null | 5,176.572232 | YES | 3025c5504019 |
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"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | 😸 | w8ebrbr2dn | public | contract | 1,719,261,334,441 | will-claude-35-sonnet-take-the-1-po | SCS | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fl70bi%2FLmIna_j0eW.11?alt=media&token=30c49838-b87d-47c3-a605-4574d09e491c | Will Claude 3.5 Sonnet take the #1 position for any period of time in its first month on the LMSYS leaderboard? | null | null | null | null | null |
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} | Martin Randall | HQGQ1pQMxu6hwco4wGXK | public | contract | 1,719,261,409,161 | prediction-market-romantic-comedy-b | MartinRandall | Prediction market romantic comedy by end of 2024? | twgchb6qs1 | null | null | null | null | |
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"... | João Pedro Santos | wvvihfenle | public | contract | 1,719,261,449,717 | what-will-be-the-score-of-claude-35 | JoaoPedroSantos | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtecoxpTLGJurOP75nBQtfeKmyslcBjetqi-AF9Gkt9MN3-u=s96-c | What will be the score of Claude 3.5 sonnet in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena at the end of July 2024? | null | null | 404.35675 | YES | cdg7i8xzfg |
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"type": "ment... | Jacy | 1vwl81497o | public | contract | 1,719,261,600,239 | will-claude-35-sonnet-rank-higher-t | Jacy | Will Claude 3.5 Sonnet rank higher than GPT-4o on LMSYS leaderboard? | vk9koz2spf | 0.495494 | -0 | NO | null | |
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... | jackson polack | 1vwl81497o | public | contract | 1,719,261,795,059 | will-claude-35-sonnet-rank-higher-t | jacksonpolack | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | Will Claude 3.5 Sonnet rank higher than GPT-4o on LMSYS leaderboard? | vk9koz2spf | null | null | null | null |
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... | Nathan Wei | 6UnMTbWEzBWEYjeF5OZc | public | contract | 1,719,262,006,796 | is-there-a-genetic-contribution-of | nathanwei | Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060] | 3eb858oajfc | null | null | null | null | |
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"type": "ment... | Jacy | 1vwl81497o | public | contract | 1,719,262,035,049 | will-claude-35-sonnet-rank-higher-t | Jacy | Will Claude 3.5 Sonnet rank higher than GPT-4o on LMSYS leaderboard? | vk9koz2spf | 0.495494 | -0 | NO | null | |
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} | chris (strutheo) | MREvLDrCq5zHZhFrVooF | public | contract | 1,719,262,053,567 | will-dick-van-dyke-become-a-centena | strutheo | Will Dick van Dyke become a centenarian? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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... | SEE | eWPA010vD3ZcmLAFxSEf | public | contract | 1,719,262,170,332 | will-naheed-nenshi-win-the-alberta | SEE | Will Naheed Nenshi win the Alberta NDP leadership race? | null | 0.976918 | 546.886491 | YES | null | |
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"type": "ment... | Sodann | Riw9kjHgBRhCO5HLPxJ0 | public | contract | 1,719,262,260,419 | when-will-video-chat-with-gpt4o-be | Sodann | When will video chat with GPT-4o be available to all premium users? | vjcn9k3ysh7 | null | 2,440.809904 | NO | f5e87292fbe2 | |
ap961eqcy9 | false | M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2 | {
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]... | NivlacM | ll19rhs4hy | public | contract | 1,719,262,330,951 | what-websocial-mediainternet-usage | NivlacM | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0e4Y--wpuxNpBGKB54wHqZQP2tJVKVLsuCx8sWIg=s96-c | What web/social media/internet usage habits will a majority of Manifold users describe as a "red flag"? [ADD RESPONSES] | heaybxfp4re | null | 534.074913 | NO | 247jvmqs8z |
cy744xaf5jf | false | qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12 | {
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"text": "Is he releasing a model? I sort of assumed his contract with the mouse would force him to sit out a cycle or two after leaving 538.",
"type":... | robm | pvsvn7b9o | public | contract | 1,719,262,371,045 | will-nate-silvers-2024-general-elec | robm | Will Nate Silver's 2024 general election model be released before the 1st Biden-Trump debate? | null | null | null | null | null | |
dhkg1n4b3p8 | false | e4uEmboKKXedpcoMa6ew4f1adTn2 | {
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... | gigab0nus | 0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2 | public | contract | 1,719,262,975,983 | uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc | gigab0nus | UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Tournament Matches | null | null | 8,045.132008 | NO | 4200a35f2afc | |
ctltjrnskxi | false | bl5bJi8iveSUgJwazQv1rUjV8H73 | {
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} | Jesse Tate | 0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2 | public | contract | 1,719,263,138,621 | uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc | JesseTate | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKxTL3aOCx3YBmcYfL2YOW9bMzmtA3cq9WrjdhjidDAzi4=s96-c | UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Tournament Matches | 11xaacaxdm1 | null | 137.065441 | YES | 00f7ff9678c4 |
ux8db48krcb | false | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | {
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"content... | Ernie | ehsZ3t5KWlVPQZAX7fSK | public | contract | 1,719,263,254,906 | by-mid-2024-will-manifold-creators | Ernie | By mid 2024 will manifold creators be able to easily tell if a market they have is profitable? | ad3arj6gm1v | null | null | null | null | |
c1e569kxcad | false | NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2 | {
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... | Josh | jbpkdp6lx2 | public | contract | 1,719,263,406,947 | add-options-who-would-be-so-good-th | josh | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx0QJyn3_RlfR7N92j1FntqMP_80imf6p_zLKws=s96-c | [Add options] Who would be so good that Manifold would vote for them over themselves in a presidential election? | null | null | null | null | null |
0wv0naxye9om | false | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | {
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gbek3uthx7l | false | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | {
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"... | Ernie | 3PfsyTwd4oTYAyQPOsPa | public | contract | 1,719,263,753,913 | magnus-carlsen-has-the-highest-elo-bf3fbb47ae14 | Ernie | Magnus Carlsen has the highest ELO in the world in mid 2025? | uL0Ifqn2ogJntOBBKdL8 | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Ben Shindel | nwlzdhnafx | public | contract | 1,719,263,846,891 | which-position-in-the-2024-nba-draf | benshindel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c | Which position in the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery will Bronny James be drafted? | null | null | 423.533699 | YES | ke5n1epqyf |
5gw4urkgqur | false | sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2 | {
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... | Ben Shindel | nwlzdhnafx | public | contract | 1,719,263,865,701 | which-position-in-the-2024-nba-draf | benshindel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c | Which position in the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery will Bronny James be drafted? | null | null | 423.533699 | YES | ke5n1epqyf |
roohgrfpj8h | false | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | {
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"text": "Oh I thought someone said it ranked higher already, whoops! Nullifying is still bad precedent and should be avoided when possible, which it seems very ... | Ian Philips | 1vwl81497o | public | contract | 1,719,264,019,915 | will-claude-35-sonnet-rank-higher-t | ian | Will Claude 3.5 Sonnet rank higher than GPT-4o on LMSYS leaderboard? | vk9koz2spf | null | null | null | null |
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