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12
blrh44gyw
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " looks like this is NO? I see CoD at 12th", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FpawTupl4ZE.png?alt=media&token=4c192ee4-9adc-4956-8550-5fa50f7d1d48", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
4lw7ANgdbZ0YpLnAYnWS
public
contract
1,719,806,807,083
will-call-of-duty-be-on-steams-top
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Call of Duty be on Steam's top 10 most played game at the end of June 2024?
null
0.90322
7.773452
NO
null
d634no76x96
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "label": "FranklinBaldo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves NO", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
dfElWJ0J445AXoNHXZk7
public
contract
1,719,806,823,994
will-uap-have-more-searches-than-ag
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will UAP have more searches than AGI at the end of June 2024?
null
0.048035
27.324416
NO
null
zg69degvq9
false
wMxdL9lv8SgJKMKFazXljpv4g292
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Okay, guess that makes sense.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FoxKHTML
PXd5l5qBVArJrSYZhivM
public
contract
1,719,806,840,907
will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
FoxKHTML
https://firebasestorage.…e38-64ea064304ad
Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?
n7if6k5sqg
null
null
null
null
q3xeghf2dni
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "manifold election season ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FtgT-4IB63a.png?alt=media&token=ac588654-82c0-4460-8994-a64684b609a7", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
np0jfpmkcu
public
contract
1,719,806,880,542
which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-43jyxd2tye
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in July 2024 according to Manifold?
null
null
null
null
null
jci16si2ze
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves NO it's 17th", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fwv-0pUqaGv.png?alt=media&token=4b2ce889-446f-4303-a367-07e3f72d314d", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
ds2i2U0tKtZXhQrWRrGi
public
contract
1,719,806,911,349
will-baldurs-gate-3-be-on-steams-to
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Baldur's Gate 3 be on Steam's top 10 most played game at the end of June 2024?
null
0.076473
844.887341
NO
null
44n2bxbgtcl
false
W2xr0kmXVqg4SzEQltvfpWOsAFO2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There were 2 shootings injuring 2 people each in Seattle earlier this month. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://mynorthwest.com/3961576/4-people-including-2-juveniles-injured-separate-seattle-shootings-saturday/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://mynorthwest.com/3961576/4-people-including-2-juveniles-injured-separate-seattle-shootings-saturday/", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "But since you didn't resolve the market, you either didn't hear of the incidents, or you don't consider them to be part of \"your city\". Either way, it doesn't seem like gun violence is the broader Seattle area is affecting you that much.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gracious
vWMshpCQIDfbu5lHMPP1
public
contract
1,719,806,926,105
will-a-mass-shooting-event-affect-m
GG
https://firebasestorage.…4fc-da5f6a7f390c
Will a mass shooting event affect me in 2024?
lsq5beygdul
0.165884
63.374497
NO
null
8px34gmxr6g
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves YES ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQNh3tb9pQQ.png?alt=media&token=b6005f2f-f629-465a-82a2-c9785c4a1d82", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
rSKsoJEHNQljHX7EUlhc
public
contract
1,719,806,932,077
will-counterstrike-2-be-1-on-steams
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Counter-Strike 2 be #1 on Steam's most played game at the end of June 2024?
null
0.94912
1.338095
YES
null
rx11tt4j5ta
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " looks like it's 5, resolves NO", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FxWOVFBWcdP.png?alt=media&token=3f3b3243-3fdc-4a70-8e18-3a111df3f9a5", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
9LZK4ZjGWAmQkQkXRo8Q
public
contract
1,719,806,973,488
will-pubg-battlegrounds-be-on-steam
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS be on Steam's top 3 most played game at the end of June 2024?
null
0.11264
235.271345
NO
null
29kimpjscea
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
AZPtNH4xwJbxdZqkBIg7
public
contract
1,719,807,031,587
will-grand-theft-auto-v-be-on-steam
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Grand Theft Auto V be on Steam's top 10 most played game at the end of June 2024?
qsnsg0zmrcp
0.953821
191.160342
YES
null
a1d4plozcdb
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves YES ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FyDvipagx-G.png?alt=media&token=e8f4ce08-908f-41bb-bb44-5be56c47b8d6", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
9Ies4D44swGDeNpDWNlT
public
contract
1,719,807,051,156
will-dota-2-be-on-steams-top-3-most
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Dota 2 be on Steam's top 3 most played game at the end of June 2024?
null
0.937868
343.386129
YES
null
1gqrdliopoy
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves YES, it's 8 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6wiIoj0jbz.png?alt=media&token=afee8dce-d388-4697-8bc9-aeaca42619da", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
Yk4om0MHHh2EaQpSGGdF
public
contract
1,719,807,073,222
will-apex-legends-be-on-steams-top
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Apex Legends be on Steam's top 10 most played game at the end of June 2024?
null
0.953355
447.375047
YES
null
9g2jh497kep
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves NO ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_credit-rating_downgrades#:~:text=On%20August%201%2C%202023%20Fitch,can%20have%20risky%20economic%20implications", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_credit-rating_downgrades#:~:text=On%20August%201%2C%202023%20Fitch,can%20have%20risky%20economic%20implications", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ".", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
vsw4MrCBpsNjdZ4pEkpV
public
contract
1,719,807,099,540
will-us-credit-rating-downgrade-by-f14923ecd9b3
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will US credit rating downgrade by the end of June 2024?
null
0.022938
4,710.420895
NO
null
6d53o7lovpx
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9lPIZwvNrCPbsfNpBUkDRrBR3Nl1", "label": "Bruce", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves NO", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
e2lZHf0tH4iEpWGGLjeP
public
contract
1,719,807,116,390
several-leading-democrats-are-sugge-82914387cdd4
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Several leading Democrats are suggesting that Joe Biden should step aside. Will Joe step aside by June 30, 2024?
null
0.037177
1,626.664451
NO
null
zr4s7js1smc
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves NO, I'd think", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
c7Fr5978O2RGoWpldnkB
public
contract
1,719,807,134,968
will-the-formula-for-fees-be-change
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will the formula for fees be changed before July?
null
0.01
591.689876
NO
null
g9pfestqimk
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "label": "SimonGrayson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " the epic saga is over, the final two can resolve NO ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
VNgdTADRXSfQXDW2Zd4m
public
contract
1,719,807,168,395
how-much-will-aquaman-and-the-lost
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
How much will Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom gross in cinemas? (Worldwide)
null
null
1,420.634137
NO
088c4c57f0ff
yqiapo9fq5j
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "label": "dglid", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "label": "MetaculusBot", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves YES ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
NY80YgcbuNTMJcYRx58M
public
contract
1,719,807,192,246
will-linda-yaccarino-be-the-ceo-of-ed98992f637e
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?
null
0.987907
26.853981
YES
null
sz9saob9sn
false
PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The time starts now! Ready? Set! Bet!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
CyfralCoot
cjilv9grj5
public
contract
1,719,807,201,408
which-minecraft-youtube-channels-wi
CyfralCoot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c
Which Minecraft Youtube channels will release at least one video in July 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
null
null
null
c8mpczwhk4
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " supposed to go off 24h average for these i believe ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
rSKsoJEHNQljHX7EUlhc
public
contract
1,719,807,225,096
will-counterstrike-2-be-1-on-steams
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Counter-Strike 2 be #1 on Steam's most played game at the end of June 2024?
8px34gmxr6g
0.94912
105.071866
YES
null
k7tws0ipxuh
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pVEERkGIgXadfIVMVMt2DBjmBD23", "label": "MrLuke255", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves NO ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://openai.com/chatgpt/pricing/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://openai.com/chatgpt/pricing/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
DHQDsYgwg6hIM6Ui5ysO
public
contract
1,719,807,235,309
will-chatgpt-plus-subscription-be-a
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will ChatGPT Plus subscription be available for less than $20/month? [before end of Jun 2024]
null
0.027592
1,320.787915
NO
null
520iedwnjoo
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "currently 11 for me", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
AZPtNH4xwJbxdZqkBIg7
public
contract
1,719,807,263,261
will-grand-theft-auto-v-be-on-steam
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Will Grand Theft Auto V be on Steam's top 10 most played game at the end of June 2024?
qsnsg0zmrcp
null
null
null
null
i242rttlv49
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "go off 24h not current", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
AZPtNH4xwJbxdZqkBIg7
public
contract
1,719,807,277,678
will-grand-theft-auto-v-be-on-steam
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Grand Theft Auto V be on Steam's top 10 most played game at the end of June 2024?
qsnsg0zmrcp
0.953821
322.598037
YES
null
8rpygk895sp
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is it? Ammon solely specifies the ranking (#1), so it seems odd that it wouldn't go based on the listed ranking, and would instead use another stat. Are there previous ones where Ammon resolved it in that fashion, ignoring the listed ranking?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
rSKsoJEHNQljHX7EUlhc
public
contract
1,719,807,337,753
will-counterstrike-2-be-1-on-steams
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Counter-Strike 2 be #1 on Steam's most played game at the end of June 2024?
8px34gmxr6g
0.94912
1.338095
YES
null
827slxacl6j
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I kind of think we should explicitly prohibit creators from relying on precedent that you can't actually find in the description or title, but we don't currently do that", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
rSKsoJEHNQljHX7EUlhc
public
contract
1,719,807,413,307
will-counterstrike-2-be-1-on-steams
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Will Counter-Strike 2 be #1 on Steam's most played game at the end of June 2024?
8px34gmxr6g
null
null
null
null
3dnpy1blu3s
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "current player fluctuates so randomly through the day though, you can have your top 10 games drop out of it often. it would be weird to ask wht is being played at midnight eastern time, that didnt seem like the gist of the question. i assumed it was 24h like other markets ive seen", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": { "id": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "label": "AmmonLam", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " back in the states yet?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
rSKsoJEHNQljHX7EUlhc
public
contract
1,719,807,416,733
will-counterstrike-2-be-1-on-steams
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Counter-Strike 2 be #1 on Steam's most played game at the end of June 2024?
8px34gmxr6g
0.94912
105.071866
YES
null
vsamghy1fvd
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "can you point to a specific market that resolved based on the 24h", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
rSKsoJEHNQljHX7EUlhc
public
contract
1,719,807,452,599
will-counterstrike-2-be-1-on-steams
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Will Counter-Strike 2 be #1 on Steam's most played game at the end of June 2024?
8px34gmxr6g
null
null
null
null
uzia9tz6us
false
UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952", "label": "ManifoldPolitics", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " this market deserves more liquidity!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Adrian
88ykSdduJBm1fOE5UBin
public
contract
1,719,807,460,009
who-would-win-the-us-presidential-e-e43c62c31980
ahalekelly
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c
Who would win the US Presidential Election, if they were the Democratic Party nominee in 2024? [More Answers]
null
null
179.632224
NO
afb7ac1a3ebc
z21ib12s3q
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "this market is a dumb stonk", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
88ykSdduJBm1fOE5UBin
public
contract
1,719,807,478,503
who-would-win-the-us-presidential-e-e43c62c31980
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Who would win the US Presidential Election, if they were the Democratic Party nominee in 2024? [More Answers]
null
null
112.534268
NO
41a410615749
kw56wdrblch
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "i always do 24h lol (using peak players per day on this other site is equivalent)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-baldurs-gate-3-still-be-in-the", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-baldurs-gate-3-still-be-in-the", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
rSKsoJEHNQljHX7EUlhc
public
contract
1,719,807,497,022
will-counterstrike-2-be-1-on-steams
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Counter-Strike 2 be #1 on Steam's most played game at the end of June 2024?
8px34gmxr6g
0.94912
105.071866
YES
null
q0dmum7bigr
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "fwiw i definitely agree that 24h peak would be a more sensible way to resolve it, because \"current\" it's so sensitive to \"when you check it\". but when the entire description is a link, and that link has a certain ranking, by default I assume that the default ranking on that page is the ranking that the market uses ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
rSKsoJEHNQljHX7EUlhc
public
contract
1,719,807,510,296
will-counterstrike-2-be-1-on-steams
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Counter-Strike 2 be #1 on Steam's most played game at the end of June 2024?
8px34gmxr6g
0.94912
1.338095
YES
null
yc8l8cb2xdn
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "YES or NA them then, idc", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "interpreting it as 'current' would be pretty random and probably warranted clarification long ago if that is what he actually wanted ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
rSKsoJEHNQljHX7EUlhc
public
contract
1,719,807,572,252
will-counterstrike-2-be-1-on-steams
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Counter-Strike 2 be #1 on Steam's most played game at the end of June 2024?
8px34gmxr6g
0.94912
105.071866
YES
null
62tw2l5z9il
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "where is the 24h average?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
rSKsoJEHNQljHX7EUlhc
public
contract
1,719,807,695,579
will-counterstrike-2-be-1-on-steams
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Will Counter-Strike 2 be #1 on Steam's most played game at the end of June 2024?
8px34gmxr6g
null
null
null
null
dbewj3mmi5v
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think he means 24 hour peak ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
rSKsoJEHNQljHX7EUlhc
public
contract
1,719,807,725,912
will-counterstrike-2-be-1-on-steams
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Counter-Strike 2 be #1 on Steam's most played game at the end of June 2024?
8px34gmxr6g
0.94912
1.338095
YES
null
ts079xenxze
false
seF80w4NuDXRDFINDuLgJPZb4A83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "label": "Stralor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves yes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FlP7boEUxDT.png?alt=media&token=02b37d87-a088-4f4a-b069-5a35e305c31b", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
celery
hpy7ZMfRlFj6NiEaopjh
public
contract
1,719,807,777,372
what-will-be-true-of-the-tsla-88-ma
WhoamI748e
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKUqqQCy_0aaMYaUr-4Yqx9_5mI-AGwfE8G2mx2p1iLgVY=s96-c
What will be true of the TSLA 8/8 market by the time it closes?
null
null
468.079919
YES
1kelue08os
ql759i12b4s
false
X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Free mana for Yes holders or your mana back!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Keenen W
PjE5Oykz1s6bx5W8RY0t
public
contract
1,719,808,098,217
placeholder-dont-bet-c406e49334bb
KeenenW
https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb
Do I ☠ in July?
null
null
null
null
null
ejg4y2wg22s
false
UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Data For Progress ran ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2024/6/dfp_post_first_presidential_debate.pdf", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "a poll", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " the day after the debate:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "In a one-on-one matchup against Trump, Whitmer and Booker are down 2 percentage points, while Biden, Harris, Newsom, Pritzker, Buttigieg, Shapiro, and Klobuchar are all down 3 points.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "And for net favorability you have Booker (+6), Klobuchar (+5), Buttigieg (+2), Shapiro (+2), Whitmer (+1), Pritzker (-3), Harris (-7), Newsom (-9), and Biden (-10)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Adrian
88ykSdduJBm1fOE5UBin
public
contract
1,719,808,583,421
who-would-win-the-us-presidential-e-e43c62c31980
ahalekelly
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c
Who would win the US Presidential Election, if they were the Democratic Party nominee in 2024? [More Answers]
null
null
179.632224
NO
afb7ac1a3ebc
xs1zuh6kq
false
St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I made an error in not making this resolve to one option, so I resolved the market to the current probabilities.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
DismalScientist
4t5qfkjgl7
public
contract
1,719,808,591,313
how-many-points-will-bronny-james-s
DismalScientist
https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e
How many points will Bronny James score against the Sacramento Kings on July 6?
null
null
null
null
null
bpehxws5w8e
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Keenen W", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Keenen Hardcore", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What are these? They aren't showing up on Google.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Muga Sofer
T9BClzVSR3grvKRWCApH
public
contract
1,719,808,605,386
which-youtube-channels-will-release-wkgauivkam
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
349.124084
NO
51famy89j6
uz1w8vzmeug
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "label": "KeenenW", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " help", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
T9BClzVSR3grvKRWCApH
public
contract
1,719,808,624,661
which-youtube-channels-will-release-wkgauivkam
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
bpehxws5w8e
null
2,177.254924
YES
5131nhxqh5
e1z9le6clyc
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "sigh ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.youtube.com/@KeenenHardcore/videos", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.youtube.com/@KeenenHardcore/videos", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.youtube.com/@KeenenW/videos", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.youtube.com/@KeenenW/videos", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "got manipulated", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
T9BClzVSR3grvKRWCApH
public
contract
1,719,808,678,444
which-youtube-channels-will-release-wkgauivkam
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
bpehxws5w8e
null
1,088.448655
NO
ghrora4ts1
5kvbtvbu95b
false
St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Updated market:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/DismalScientist/how-many-points-will-bronny-james-s-d2tm9f6as2", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
DismalScientist
4t5qfkjgl7
public
contract
1,719,808,735,754
how-many-points-will-bronny-james-s
DismalScientist
https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e
How many points will Bronny James score against the Sacramento Kings on July 6?
xs1zuh6kq
null
null
null
null
gd4ubvq9d6p
false
GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There is absolutely no way that Netanyahu will just resign. There have been huge protests against him before. The only way to remove him is through elections.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Of course Biden wants him out of office. Trump too would likely prefer Gantz. Gantz will be PM soon enough but not by EOY.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nathan Wei
ZNOG00Vq18bxbzGJk6FS
public
contract
1,719,809,380,111
will-netanyahu-be-out-of-office-by
nathanwei
https://firebasestorage.…47c-77836969b89a
Will Netanyahu be out of office by year end 2024?
89urvbt61gs
0.318425
5,266.905593
NO
null
cfcz7yv581c
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
ROAyfjpgIjEKUX29iLAR
public
contract
1,719,809,529,310
will-aoc-be-sanctioned-by-the-house
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will AOC be sanctioned by the House Committee on Ethics?
null
0.024138
769.185607
NO
null
mkgrvdf2zse
false
nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I've made my initial bet, a priori probability of 30% - I won't bet any further in this market.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Matt P
22mn424iti
public
contract
1,719,809,550,474
will-i-lose-another-character-in-my
MattP
https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f
Will I lose another character in my PbP RPG server before anyone else loses a character?
null
0.297893
883.850391
NO
null
k81j8572xo
false
rQkLnO74pAd8rZfZt78lUO1DrLQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why is security at $0? There were professional guards, I doubt they worked for free.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tobias Pace
cp2uxtuzmy
public
contract
1,719,809,625,647
will-there-be-a-manifest-in-the-nex
TobiasPace
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzBu25L72QxmcYQaO3LvYty_GnlJQR4NThSMWxQ=s96-c
Will there be a Manifest in the next 2 years?
vf4b6ek2vzm
null
null
null
null
qchml9r4gu
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "presumably lighthaven paid for it", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
cp2uxtuzmy
public
contract
1,719,809,658,525
will-there-be-a-manifest-in-the-nex
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Will there be a Manifest in the next 2 years?
vf4b6ek2vzm
0.822006
1,703.110828
NO
null
in64xhbe16
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2ForEmjD_CiR.png?alt=media&token=86e47b7c-7ffa-43af-ae2b-611cfc4398c1", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "XjZDo9HbYibD09TgOGQad0c1X2X2", "label": "kirby", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
SXdbvoWvxo3YMJq7cmF2
public
contract
1,719,809,760,836
how-much-will-usd-to-mxn-trade-at-t
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
How much will USD to MXN trade at the end of June?
null
null
7,967.515919
YES
cs3q5822t7
19id3kvjg62
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "brother you can wait six minutes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
ROAyfjpgIjEKUX29iLAR
public
contract
1,719,809,780,035
will-aoc-be-sanctioned-by-the-house
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Will AOC be sanctioned by the House Committee on Ethics?
cfcz7yv581c
null
null
null
null
fi0ey0ns70g
false
nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thomas is perfectly happy being alone. He is the justice who has been in the dissent the most this term (yes, including the liberal justices).", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Matt P
mY8eR7W0O3iALtUT66JN
public
contract
1,719,809,804,568
how-will-the-supreme-court-decide-t
MattP
https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f
How will the Supreme Court split in the Trump immunity case?
jupgzjrh04
null
411.773202
YES
b2532c8daa55
ttmbv6uie7l
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Per FSU: CMC/GFS 00Z no longer predicting genesis for 96L this cycle.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
JRP
hffqvhmy8i
public
contract
1,719,809,809,828
when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named-5izovkdrho
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
When will a tropical storm be named Debby in 2024?
null
null
726.066336
YES
owde5b84ah
iiuh1mi3u8p
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fmn8PB_74Bn.png?alt=media&token=f2fa185e-114f-4f4f-bc4c-4c28bd59a363", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
SXdbvoWvxo3YMJq7cmF2
public
contract
1,719,809,846,020
how-much-will-usd-to-mxn-trade-at-t
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
How much will USD to MXN trade at the end of June?
null
null
7,967.515919
YES
cs3q5822t7
gpfso9awyn
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It sure was!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
aQf5flyFgFPGiiExUkJm
public
contract
1,719,809,870,985
will-biden-be-40-or-higher-on-polym
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will Biden be 40% or higher on Polymarket on any day before July 1st?
x7ly5yqq08
null
null
null
null
ukiihc9q7th
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "In the future, I think the responsibility needs to be on the market creator to specify it's the 24h", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
9LZK4ZjGWAmQkQkXRo8Q
public
contract
1,719,809,895,798
will-pubg-battlegrounds-be-on-steam
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Will PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS be on Steam's top 3 most played game at the end of June 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
tozcwp5hu8
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "included in the venue rental I'm sure. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
cp2uxtuzmy
public
contract
1,719,809,972,904
will-there-be-a-manifest-in-the-nex
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
Will there be a Manifest in the next 2 years?
vf4b6ek2vzm
0.822006
56.497533
YES
null
af9w0moshf5
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "^ any takers?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
4eqtxxfqbz
public
contract
1,719,810,001,069
will-transgender-us-passports-with
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
y9jbbx0n94r
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "chances of a happy ending market", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
1unnxv20aj
public
contract
1,719,810,006,763
will-biden-be-nominated-win-reelect
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Biden be nominated, win reelection, serve out his whole term, and get his well deserved retirement?
null
null
null
null
null
u1nv7jn5dff
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "there's something called adverse selection here", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
4eqtxxfqbz
public
contract
1,719,810,097,934
will-transgender-us-passports-with
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?
af9w0moshf5
0.374364
0
NO
null
b03cjja6y4i
false
FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ed0TYP2NEbWZ3K9oeW2DarokXOy1", "label": "diadematus", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves yes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Weezing
2lcwEirnsYDkZ4lrEEsz
public
contract
1,719,810,324,222
will-aravindh-chithambaram-reach-an
Weezing
https://firebasestorage.…9ac-b0dfa544f276
Will Aravindh Chithambaram reach an official rating of 2700 or higher in 2024?
null
0.957394
16,261.59039
YES
null
fu4sglltheu
false
z0cH5XmIM9XgWFOBAILQWt0fTHr1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I’m pretty resistant to induction. I’d say no at 41 weeks, yes at 42.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rachel
suqx2ukd3n
public
contract
1,719,810,336,542
on-what-day-will-our-baby-be-born-eslgkpbzzu
rachel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr7YCsixsa7V2jXk_XiVJPYixsOTsXOURbZDyqIAQ=s96-c
On what day will our baby be born?
evbkus4ei6
null
null
null
null
h8rldphhx5j
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "this market will have controversial resolution! ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
cd9xhpsbs0
public
contract
1,719,810,339,758
will-ai-agents-be-able-to-code-a-sm
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Will AI agents be able to regularly code small features for us in a year?
null
0.554611
1,231.763389
YES
null
6bk99j6biq6
false
gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 2", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Traveel
qe97inxecz
public
contract
1,719,810,373,175
daily-coinflip-pgyr04q8oc
Traveel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c
Daily coinflip
null
0.5
2,023.059991
YES
null
b0jfyswzipj
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Traveel", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Traveel", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 2, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4145978", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4145978", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4145980", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4145980", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: 6bk99j6biq6.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
qe97inxecz
public
contract
1,719,810,379,332
daily-coinflip-pgyr04q8oc
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Daily coinflip
null
null
null
null
null
0zu85v23195
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Traveel", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Traveel", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 2", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: 6bk99j6biq6, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4145980", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4145980", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature adc9234dad2dc284bff87d9958db4d6162cdbf1e881f3c8b45979561e005d850bdb109252062cdaa4066e600d46f58820f9c7298c3e965a6b3f327fafc3dddf3de8f22ff5b703d0b6c4c0e9fddcdac9b7d86c8edb2d5d2027ceb67913b1473af)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
qe97inxecz
public
contract
1,719,810,425,034
daily-coinflip-pgyr04q8oc
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
Daily coinflip
null
null
null
null
null
u4o9we7jz6f
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "nice", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
qe97inxecz
public
contract
1,719,810,435,833
daily-coinflip-pgyr04q8oc
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Daily coinflip
0zu85v23195
0.5
2.009149
NO
null
0wx5gba8pgee
false
jZsECgI1Y5fuDY9alZvz7CMcxSg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What's the resolution criteria here? It resolves at the end of his first year. Is \"solving inflation\" like escaping hyperinflation, making it significantly better, or reaching some threshold like an annualized monthly inflation of <3-4% by EOY, or what?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Roberto Gomez
p57wLrVebImRSe8KkcTK
public
contract
1,719,810,500,545
will-javier-mileis-government-be-su
RobertoGomez
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzsGkARi5n93ihu6fO41PTFHtZh-XCjvWL5b0ki=s96-c
Will Javier Milei's government be successful in solving inflation in Argentina?
null
0.827092
195.484176
YES
null
prniwe8z4q
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves yes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
iCZ3V3ZUPfhBsw97A0Cp
public
contract
1,719,810,568,150
will-manifold-markets-outlive-predi
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Will Manifold Markets outlive PredictionBook?
null
0.945344
855.375743
YES
null
6jw9aodgqt4
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "10k NO order at 35% for a day. Willing to increase the size if anyone asks", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
thypzenktw
public
contract
1,719,810,590,693
will-polymarket-give-biden-more-tha
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will Polymarket give biden more than 30% probability on Biden winning the election, in the next week?
null
null
null
null
null
yk9hhffzmyo
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "or someone really wants to hedge", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
4eqtxxfqbz
public
contract
1,719,810,599,421
will-transgender-us-passports-with
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?
af9w0moshf5
0.49
154.706214
NO
null
rhe2jsfkd6
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "could you explain in what way this is adverse selection, im not following", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
4eqtxxfqbz
public
contract
1,719,810,662,108
will-transgender-us-passports-with
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?
af9w0moshf5
0.49
0
NO
null
l5c52kty44
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "though im reconsidering trying to tax bullshit in this context it sounds rude. Is this what you meant", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
4eqtxxfqbz
public
contract
1,719,810,696,531
will-transgender-us-passports-with
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?
af9w0moshf5
0.49
0
NO
null
xw3baxkcw9m
false
VJ5qBFNMalPi4ojcznApSetuST82
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Am I reading this right that the scandal is “Holding back” Ace2 sequences that are presumably identical to other available Ace2 sequences and “not reporting” a March 2016 sampling trip when other samples from the trip were published to GenBank with March 2016 collection date and Yunnan metadata long ago?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Newsflash — not all data is published in journals, publication in theses is also publication, and publication often ends at that point. It’s not a sign of a cover up just because you’re told something is on the internet in Chinese and not English and you didn’t know about it.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Z
4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7
public
contract
1,719,810,710,992
did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory
zcoli
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLLbwSLoMBnt_ocCk7qdqChLAhO5y7ScrLTPWWCsBrd=s96-c
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
2w1wr8166xu
0.530443
1.881809
NO
null
kmikzq1rzv
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "you wouldn't advertise a giant limit order unless you think you are right by a lot", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
4eqtxxfqbz
public
contract
1,719,810,731,957
will-transgender-us-passports-with
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?
af9w0moshf5
0.49
154.706214
NO
null
3mmr0oy1p5r
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I’m willing to lose that if someone knows me to be wrong, too. Seems like a valuable thing someone would successfully predict. But yeah I think people are likely to vastly overestimate some odds involved ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
4eqtxxfqbz
public
contract
1,719,810,812,610
will-transgender-us-passports-with
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?
af9w0moshf5
0.49
0
NO
null
cy03f35kvhi
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thinking more of this market:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/ZaneMiller/will-there-be-a-trans-genocide-in-a", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
4eqtxxfqbz
public
contract
1,719,810,845,522
will-transgender-us-passports-with
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?
af9w0moshf5
0.49
0
NO
null
qadnjqkbfq
false
G4JTSx4yXAYll9JkJOj0z0qNNBt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "See my response on that one too. If I had 10,000 mana this would be an easy bet for me.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jessica Evans
4eqtxxfqbz
public
contract
1,719,810,924,063
will-transgender-us-passports-with
JessicaEvans
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ09N-L0VcH3A2_jFbvwzXuPQH7Z8dtC_qkPe9VUC3kHfs=s96-c
Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?
af9w0moshf5
0.49
307.568605
YES
null
3tpqm1vlv1t
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FNMplgsqacT.png?alt=media&token=b57911ac-fb22-4421-8bde-3bc9983f995b", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "from a quick review of the law, there isn't really anything in the law allowing some bureaucrat to revoke a passport arbitrarily. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FuibYUwKqD0.png?alt=media&token=9752ba1e-3ba9-4c44-897d-cb504fd841e2", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
4eqtxxfqbz
public
contract
1,719,811,119,056
will-transgender-us-passports-with
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?
af9w0moshf5
0.49
154.706214
NO
null
sbgujclx1dh
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Facebook fail", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ernie
cFIL7RgfXxy0zCq5pkHp
public
contract
1,719,811,142,437
personal-subjective-will-facebook-f
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
[personal, subjective] Will Facebook fix the avatar gender situation by mid 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
63rd9eg7eoo
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yeah i think you’re wrong in that market but moreso because the base rates seem so tiny than because I am particularly well informed about the particular issue", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
4eqtxxfqbz
public
contract
1,719,811,165,513
will-transgender-us-passports-with
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?
af9w0moshf5
0.49
0
NO
null
g481q01x4j4
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Extended close date til after league end so we can keep trading", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
Mn6mWKp0XkAjOs4VndYu
public
contract
1,719,811,339,487
manifold-leagues-megamarket-season-b5po2hrchi
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Manifold Leagues Megamarket: Season 14 (June)
null
null
409.493281
YES
jxdpnxy4sd
8ip6690ikcl
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Nothing ever happens", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ernie
7OHu98KxT95P3uyn7Z9R
public
contract
1,719,811,365,938
local-san-mateo-will-perform-for-go
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
Local San Mateo: Will Perform For Golf be gone or out of business by mid 2024
null
null
null
null
null
8kn79mkk3x3
false
EvssjTog4GaSFVLrKBLh11LksCt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FzLuJhGE7t9.png?alt=media&token=ee7e2659-72a0-41bf-8ae5-0c8ee626a284", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "1) Why the resolution reversal, if rules were unclear then it's NA, especially 1h before league updates.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2) It's 5, resolves NO", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mr Kiwi
9LZK4ZjGWAmQkQkXRo8Q
public
contract
1,719,811,404,061
will-pubg-battlegrounds-be-on-steam
MrKiwi
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKTcvRWvh43rWCf2bkDlJhzsONGlYvANB1YgMfrKVlPag=s96-c
Will PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS be on Steam's top 3 most played game at the end of June 2024?
ukiihc9q7th
1
667.132298
NO
null
350c6w9x4qj
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Afaict NO? But it's hard to tell. Any evidence??", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ernie
X2cdEz4NniWuOFeFYgH8
public
contract
1,719,811,487,579
will-dalle3-switch-to-using-gpt4o-a
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
Will Dalle-3 switch to using gpt-4o as the rewriter, either always or as an option, by mid 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
avql4uo5s97
false
omkCNmykogQ0T0dmpzKSlddYVPc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "label": "Moscow25", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " This must resolve NO: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Victor Poughon
7auq5ebfvy
public
contract
1,719,811,543,730
french-2024-parliamentary-elections
VictorPoughon
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtelB4CB5UJ-7tVIU8kDBjQiNVmBU4qraMuGWhCorcWY=s96-c
French 2024 parliamentary elections -- multi-question. Final round July 7th.
null
null
947.988259
NO
f18anbcvtn
uxuozq92ab
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "soon!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
nKv4dP5EbDDoowakBPla
public
contract
1,719,811,567,453
what-will-be-the-most-popular-new-e
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
What will be the Most Popular NEW Emoji on World Emoji Day 2024? (July 17)
null
null
0
NO
57e83649d999
rgqzojeh6o
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That is super duper not what people generally mean by utility. It's ... also not true that 'feeling good by itself wouldn't lead to higher utility' in that sense, humans like feeling good and conditioning access to good-feeling things music on increasing GDP would in fact motivate humans to increase GDP, and this is how society works, people work in exchange for currency and pay currency for things that make them feel good.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Even asie from that, music is a ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "powerful", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " tool for motivating humans nontransactionally. If I were an AI trying to maximize GDP, I would absolutely use music to do so. Look at the way people act all culty around pop stars, look at national anthems and war songs.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "why we evolved a need for it, assuming it is still relevant", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "And I think this points at something about 'why we evolved a need for it'!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
s7b3q9x08b
public
contract
1,719,811,590,523
does-listening-to-music-lead-to-hig
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Does listening to music lead to higher utility?
275vda80j8n
0.399259
21,765.026481
YES
null
pxfnkqs9uj
false
QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thanks! ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
M L
WB2nYuRUqowtzXUwN2vT
public
contract
1,719,811,870,157
will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-7e20e779f915
ML12d1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c
Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (6969Mana prize for the lottery winner)
fe2fkkm7ex
1
24.191053
YES
null
8yy89jnhmds
false
jZsECgI1Y5fuDY9alZvz7CMcxSg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Just to note that the title is a bit confusing because, weirdly enough, it seems to \"dollarize\" actually does not mean to adopt the U.S. dollar as it's primary currency but just to give up on your national currency being the main one being held and used (or fully give up on it in the case of \"full dollarization\"). That is, whether the non-national currency used is the U.S. dollar, Euro, or a crypto doesn't matter. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't expect Argentina is likely to \"officially adopt the dollar as its primary currency\", but otoh it's somewhat likely that it will be the main currency held by people and even used because it will be allowed to be used more and more. I'm assuming that still resolves no, right?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Roberto Gomez
fJ6kkaTyNsTcmY8Sxjj0
public
contract
1,719,811,872,153
will-argentina-dolarize-its-economy
RobertoGomez
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzsGkARi5n93ihu6fO41PTFHtZh-XCjvWL5b0ki=s96-c
Will Argentina dollarize its economy before 2028?
null
null
null
null
null
12anbvd4dn3q
false
wbXNSHyBlFb22U3jMxheKBoOXYn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yeah I'm only trying to track mass shooting events not all gun violence. Generally it's defined as shootings where there are 4+ victims.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris V
vWMshpCQIDfbu5lHMPP1
public
contract
1,719,812,430,571
will-a-mass-shooting-event-affect-m
voodoo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJvMxwuK2gMCy5Z5egEg2drhsz4s5lov7Jd_WwypFTydJw=s96-c
Will a mass shooting event affect me in 2024?
lsq5beygdul
null
null
null
null
7tnhc2sx20b
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This is at 12% on Polymarket (with decent liquidity), so if this 61% is really reasonable there's some free EV $100 bills lying around. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
rk2eveooes
public
contract
1,719,812,477,450
stranded-astronauts-depart-on-boein
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Stranded astronauts depart on Boeing Starliner by July 21?
null
null
null
null
null
2f8q3yjfdv7
false
W2xr0kmXVqg4SzEQltvfpWOsAFO2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You defined it as killing/injuring two people.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fg0_gfs6Zoj.png?alt=media&token=d5b87401-ba64-49d4-9410-31a45497393e", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gracious
vWMshpCQIDfbu5lHMPP1
public
contract
1,719,812,686,333
will-a-mass-shooting-event-affect-m
GG
https://firebasestorage.…4fc-da5f6a7f390c
Will a mass shooting event affect me in 2024?
lsq5beygdul
0.195707
199.029461
YES
null
yjy5lvkyu3g
false
wbXNSHyBlFb22U3jMxheKBoOXYn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Oh I see. For 'my area' I would say Lynwood is about as far North as I normally go, Tukwila as far south, and Carnation/Snoqualmie as far East. About this area of the map.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F1wMs8rGvH7.png?alt=media&token=495ec78c-0d56-4b81-a0c8-f31323e6541e", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris V
vWMshpCQIDfbu5lHMPP1
public
contract
1,719,812,725,823
will-a-mass-shooting-event-affect-m
voodoo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJvMxwuK2gMCy5Z5egEg2drhsz4s5lov7Jd_WwypFTydJw=s96-c
Will a mass shooting event affect me in 2024?
lsq5beygdul
null
null
null
null
z4l7t1zkwzq
false
X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I apologize if you feel manipulated, but I bet 2 and 3 mana on Yes so yall know what's up.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-keenen-hardcore-upload-at-leas", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": " I made a market if I upload two videos to Keenen Hardcore", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", I bet 1 mana on Yes - so yall know it's safe to bet the market up.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Keenen W
T9BClzVSR3grvKRWCApH
public
contract
1,719,812,822,798
which-youtube-channels-will-release-wkgauivkam
KeenenW
https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb
▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
bpehxws5w8e
null
984.936989
YES
83vgtj2xd1
t7dsum0brud
false
X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "label": "KeenenW", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I am the bozo that added the Keenen options.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Keenen W
g4knaf1vl4
public
contract
1,719,812,961,601
which-youtube-channels-will-release-oaiu6u16tr
KeenenW
https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb
▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in July 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
null
null
null
plfqh3zdt6n
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/cnn-presidential-debate-commercials-brands-ads/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/cnn-presidential-debate-commercials-brands-ads/", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " all resolve no including ozempic for reasons described below to the best of my knowledge watching the debate", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
Y0iJgtigeMPwyERQlfWA
public
contract
1,719,812,967,194
what-commercials-will-cnn-air-durin
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
What commercials will CNN air during its Biden-Trump debate?
null
null
28,720.341877
NO
79q433t1bm
22hapeoewu
false
wbXNSHyBlFb22U3jMxheKBoOXYn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That's an error on my part. I had intended on using the most common definition although even that is hard to pin down.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_shooting#Definitions", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_shooting#Definitions", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris V
vWMshpCQIDfbu5lHMPP1
public
contract
1,719,812,990,814
will-a-mass-shooting-event-affect-m
voodoo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJvMxwuK2gMCy5Z5egEg2drhsz4s5lov7Jd_WwypFTydJw=s96-c
Will a mass shooting event affect me in 2024?
lsq5beygdul
null
null
null
null
mgffw0km3or
false
jZsECgI1Y5fuDY9alZvz7CMcxSg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2", "label": "ManifoldAI", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I'm guessing this can be resolved already, depending on time zone. Or do these types of questions resolve all options at once?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Roberto Gomez
qXrIu1hyCO6FirylOyAk
public
contract
1,719,813,018,879
in-what-month-will-openai-broadly-r
RobertoGomez
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzsGkARi5n93ihu6fO41PTFHtZh-XCjvWL5b0ki=s96-c
In what month will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?
null
null
6,189.574037
NO
215035858d12
b8ywibfhk18
false
RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You have to ask a mod to do it now", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Arky
Q3uHP0YSvhVE7M7WlFx7
public
contract
1,719,813,054,664
will-donald-trump-get-under-78-of-t
Arky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c
Will Donald Trump get under 78% of the vote in any of these states in the 2024 Republican Primary?
7r40tvbx85
null
null
null
null
83o5c2uerr
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "link your channels so ppl know this time lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
g4knaf1vl4
public
contract
1,719,813,346,130
which-youtube-channels-will-release-oaiu6u16tr
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in July 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
t7dsum0brud
null
8.135005
NO
6r7iz7c6u9
gi2ksqm7km7
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "did you want this to close", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jackson polack
wq5ijzdxpq
public
contract
1,719,813,482,809
when-will-quivertrade-publicly-rele-ngusja1r0o
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
When will quiver.trade publicly release its QVR token?
null
null
null
null
null
h25iqjbtrq
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6jBZUr1NNj.png?alt=media&token=893c3d93-b81b-4431-925b-0dd2f004adad", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
XwyvBdM4rb54aUom8fTK
public
contract
1,719,813,490,616
what-will-be-true-about-our-next-pr
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
🆕What will be true about the next product from Prong.studio?
null
null
193.234873
YES
f91a5fc63328
wqswovh6dh
false
dEvAkoH19rTcIENraMy3kZyHOe82
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Wait I heard she was the X CEO now. [awkward pause] Get it?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Luke Hanks (HankyUSA)
NY80YgcbuNTMJcYRx58M
public
contract
1,719,813,519,779
will-linda-yaccarino-be-the-ceo-of-ed98992f637e
HankyUSA
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrs9Q53gYHp6HbnXlXHhLBPcjB8HOvuaWTt58yPYSM=s96-c
Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?
yqiapo9fq5j
0.987907
1,021.957794
YES
null