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4kntsfhrnsa
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolves no ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " inactive ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
ZslJzO8JddjxvNybT5z8
public
contract
1,719,952,548,069
will-sora-be-released-before-jul-20
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Sora be released before Jul 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
dssevq1241r
false
rOygyJSsAfYxLThk36BU5iSlfdO2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "With a demotion to Platinum for July I can't make it to Masters until September. Thanks to those of you who believed in me w/ earlier bets 💜 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
draaglom
Hmz9UJhncXh44zy9U6lP
public
contract
1,719,952,885,069
when-will-i-draaglom-first-reach-th
draaglom
https://firebasestorage.…a3e-1dbfa72b78a4
When will I (@draaglom) first reach the Masters league?
null
null
null
null
null
6vkdsqwsfvg
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Seems clear enough now, thank you.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
d4f7aribpy
public
contract
1,719,953,075,678
will-a-presidential-age-limit-amend
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Will a presidential age limit amendment be introduced in the US Congress before 2030?
pq69u21guxn
null
null
null
null
ohurjypgep
false
rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "no", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tumbles ♠︎ Meme Rising
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,953,165,634
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Tumbles
https://firebasestorage.…8aa-654bdc115c8d
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
nioxvsl4pu
0.624415
785,151.373946
YES
null
l45tno1v698
false
6o90GIgsJqSiNajzYtB4ArK8YBo2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Bro is not getting replaced lmao", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jeremiah
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,953,288,152
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
jeremiahsamroo
https://firebasestorage.…505-bf96c382dfc3
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
0.629506
3,913.643338
YES
null
mqwz4ht73hd
false
rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fpnei6BDCTO.png?alt=media&token=a1f0f073-39d8-49db-9600-b8ec95d44f74", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Good god lol. 51k used to be two days of daily loans for me", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tumbles ♠︎ Meme Rising
PXd5l5qBVArJrSYZhivM
public
contract
1,719,953,311,520
will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
Tumbles
https://firebasestorage.…8aa-654bdc115c8d
Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?
7twyhjxp5df
0.26
479,046.618813
NO
null
1ei2uziu6ab
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think that the difference between Biden and Trump is that Biden wouldn't allow that to happen... and Trump wouldn't allow that to happen.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
qMB8OVy1JFowA7Xfc2yG
public
contract
1,719,953,487,573
-if-trump-wins-will-the-us-electora
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
🇺🇸 If Trump wins, will the US electoral democracy index fall below 0.80 by 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
28w1p6oax1j
false
VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "big, if true (it's twitter though)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Al Quinn
4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F
public
contract
1,719,953,596,719
will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
AlQuinn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
vbmmsrefivs
0.25
3,936.16625
NO
null
a66i3m8sque
false
BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "it's true ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://puck.news/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/SUNDAY_Post-Debate_Landscape_2024_06_30__1_-1.pdf", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://puck.news/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/SUNDAY_Post-Debate_Landscape_2024_06_30__1_-1.pdf", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Semiotic Rivalry
4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F
public
contract
1,719,953,645,866
will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
SemioticRivalry
https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
vbmmsrefivs
0.25
138,983.799336
NO
null
9v46khz34qb
false
JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I’ve decided to change it back to N/A because I realized you can ask mods.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ibozz91
ZuktObarUpBJB0I9tZFW
public
contract
1,719,953,940,353
conditional-on-hollow-knight-silkso
Ibozz91
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c
Conditional on Hollow Knight: Silksong releasing in 2024, which month will it be released in?
b7d6jmmc9rh
null
null
null
null
z3qgae2eqwn
false
fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's your left wing-right wing compass that needs adjustment, not the World around you.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You will be shocked when you find out Trump never told anyone to drink bleach or ingest any kind of disinfectant liquid.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's the definition of \"alternative medicine\" that has changed. All of a sudden off-label prescriptions, a widespread practice in medicine for ages, became \"right-wing, alt medicine craziness\".", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
t-bird
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,719,954,002,548
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
tbird
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
jeqgmlz4tln
null
null
null
null
3uw491ag64f
false
b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm pretty sure they haven't, since they debuted a new revamped version a few months back at great expense. Unless you're inclined to count that as \"removing\" it. ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicole_Kidman_AMC_Theatres_commercial?wprov=sfla1", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicole_Kidman_AMC_Theatres_commercial?wprov=sfla1", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Muga Sofer
feGTL0rhOJ0pvjTtYlJj
public
contract
1,719,954,470,865
will-amc-theatres-remove-the-nicole
MugaSofer
https://firebasestorage.…ea7-19aebfd949c8
Will AMC Theatres remove the Nicole Kidman pre-movie promo before July 1st 2024?
null
0.09
1,174.564036
NO
null
tg1yga99kv
false
66e69xtuxcaOANdzvof19Vm4HFL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Imprisoning people because of their political ideology is neither inherently left- or right- wing. It is authoritarian. Fascists (right-wing authoritarians) locking up communists is right-wing. Communists (left-wing authoritarians) locking up people for not being sufficiently communist is left-wing. Gulags imprisoned people for not being left-wing enough. That is inherently left-wing. How could it be any other way?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
HoldingC
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,719,954,694,804
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
HoldingC
https://firebasestorage.…f05-2324bda7e40b
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
ljx2tre60t
null
670.963259
YES
zatyt0qu1i
gg2zomutnom
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83", "label": "tbird", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Thinking that neurotoxins can be used off-label as antivirals without any evidence is right-wing, alt medicine craziness.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Snarflak
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,719,954,936,826
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
jeqgmlz4tln
null
669.025556
NO
5f6db2f28df6
r3hjdst0h7
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "66e69xtuxcaOANdzvof19Vm4HFL2", "label": "HoldingC", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Authoritarianism is right-wing though.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Snarflak
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,719,954,993,332
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
ljx2tre60t
null
669.025556
NO
5f6db2f28df6
9v9hjn4mq0m
false
T7EybFKrm5bP1NBglYX7Twtwuv13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Cancel in that case? N/A is not available anymore I think ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The Wabi Sabi
09yu8wax0i
public
contract
1,719,955,047,297
conditional-on-biden-not-being-the
TheWabiSabi
https://firebasestorage.…2ec-cedfd2c3f9b5
Conditional on Biden NOT being the Democrat nominee, what will happen? [Add your own!]
null
null
null
null
null
q1uanr0hjaq
false
ldIRwMPTG6d0kO3LyWew5ZQBWc33
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "When results come out on the website", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
DottedCalculator
A66FZ13FeDzuvhnfeiFu
public
contract
1,719,955,047,733
which-category-will-i-place-in-on-a-d937edb63dc1
DottedCalculator
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIhl-l-m_d_iYt1ungYnm52eXosXMHPxnWCzTyaJr7cLA=s96-c
Which category will I place in on APMO?
trp695k6vao
null
447.185686
YES
24579ad61ff7
oovh9661uff
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Well done running the gauntlet!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gaz Downright
MxvHc5fsyuNRRnkkT3DR
public
contract
1,719,955,147,471
will-i-get-banned-from-manifold-by
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Will I get banned from Manifold by July 1st 2024 ?
a8kgtis5i5p
0.01
15.164115
NO
null
4nx4ankw3xv
false
fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "One could say the same about completely novel vaccines developed and deployed to billions of people within a year. But your politics has blinded you to common sense.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
t-bird
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,719,955,173,386
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
tbird
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
jeqgmlz4tln
null
null
null
null
48xmt6qb332
false
ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Related question:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kXOMOk8y597uHYq22Zlt", "label": "/OlegEterevsky/when-will-we-first-produce-somethin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "contract-mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Oleg Eterevsky
8wJpf4C9hUN3OoBuCpHw
public
contract
1,719,955,191,454
by-2030-will-an-organisation-be-man
OlegEterevsky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c
By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?
null
0.599448
122.912958
NO
null
ckmvyawgc58
false
DZhfYGUMI0ZlpsJ6K1gCXU4rlJp2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Nevermind", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ben
rPwcCadpI8oKO8vDSbzF
public
contract
1,719,955,197,558
bb5-47176870
neb
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKpmn-O-i6IWtCpGHOXaULw3ie3JBNeD4l46WxtDCiq=s96-c
BB(5) = 47,176,870
null
0.884608
8,791.285533
NO
null
dozj04km055
false
UrOFJ9KFr2NZ9CUCfUSbzDz8eDj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Poor charlotte", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
RedEagle
NbPoV2oNedBzwrFBY0mn
public
contract
1,719,955,207,490
how-did-charlotte-the-stingray-conc
redeagle
https://firebasestorage.…181-0133ade9969f
How did Charlotte the stingray conceive her pups?
rqd4gpig1np
null
151.558906
YES
920dab682724
cchhg2cnlj6
false
ErrdqYQwz5dyjNTOj5Ee3G2FlYH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Feel like they should actually need to reuse it for it to count, regardless of how they recover the booster. But it's your question of course.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jon Wharf
je24zmi88q
public
contract
1,719,955,218,443
will-any-company-or-space-agency-ot
JonWharf
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIRl9lgtNXOk76Ezq9u52bgS8-9BBqVEANCwz7FEuqhsQ=s96-c
Will any company or space agency other than SpaceX successfully use reusable rocket launch system by 2027?
null
null
null
null
null
zeq2l7d5xpi
false
2elrKFTn74R4fQVtRgqUbuxd2xv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I thought it was still available, if Biden is the nominee on Election Day will ask a mod to take care of this.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mario F. Schlitzer
09yu8wax0i
public
contract
1,719,955,220,114
conditional-on-biden-not-being-the
MarioFSchlitzer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK5GndKUAGz_h1WVnPpnijYS4spzE5nxX3I-f9E2XcF=s96-c
Conditional on Biden NOT being the Democrat nominee, what will happen? [Add your own!]
9v9hjn4mq0m
null
300.670606
YES
pmkxr5ahkw
1bk4klvvua7
false
WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thank you all for betting here !", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Related market :", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Unown/which-manifold-users-will-be-banned", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mich
MxvHc5fsyuNRRnkkT3DR
public
contract
1,719,955,222,314
will-i-get-banned-from-manifold-by
Mich
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c
Will I get banned from Manifold by July 1st 2024 ?
null
null
null
null
null
wfrmbt8c857
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83", "label": "tbird", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " You don't know anything about my politics or my relationship to the mRNA vaccines. Stop being brainwashed by the media into thinking that there are only two sides to every issue and that one side is right about everything.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Snarflak
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,719,955,330,031
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
jeqgmlz4tln
null
669.025556
NO
5f6db2f28df6
gn63h5qh80e
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The script can be run after the fact to get data for July 1st, so it's not inconsistent that I will run the script after market close and yet that the results will pertain to July 1st.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "(Though I probably just set the close date to what I did to avoid thinking about timezones)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm extremely busy but will aim to make and run the relevant script in the next few days.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris Billington
H12DpyyujMJVtLlF4WO7
public
contract
1,719,955,343,806
will-manifold-have-at-least-x-mana
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
Will Manifold have at least X mana millionaires on Jul 1st?
7dsnowlolve
null
null
null
null
bvdrnkk11lv
false
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "label": "StochasticParrot", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Let's try to keep this comment section productive. We might take a higher-touch moderation strategy for the most popular markets like this one.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
James
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,719,955,428,894
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
JamesGrugett
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
dc9pm3v3ljm
null
46,102.999199
YES
33b8f3dc81b9
vdqnz6fv00o
false
fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You said wrongful use of off-label prescriptions is right-wing, which is why I mentioned your politics. It's a nonsensical thing to say.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Your mind-reading, on the other hand, was completely gratuitous and not based on anything I wrote.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
t-bird
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,719,955,476,509
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
tbird
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
jeqgmlz4tln
null
null
null
null
qn13ts0uad
false
66e69xtuxcaOANdzvof19Vm4HFL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No. That is objectively wrong. The Soviet Union, PRC, Cuba—These are/were all left-wing authoritarian states. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Authoritarian_socialism", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Authoritarian_socialism", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
HoldingC
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,719,955,499,944
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
HoldingC
https://firebasestorage.…f05-2324bda7e40b
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
ljx2tre60t
null
670.963259
YES
zatyt0qu1i
u3wwii5oq5q
false
VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": "Video gif. A gray and white cat looks around with wide eyes and jaw dropped in shock.", "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://media2.giphy.com/media/PUBxelwT57jsQ/giphy.gif?cid=5ff1f1caz0sb8ramq6ett14lhedi7zkp58jojb5xlwo3t559&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "^me while looking through that pdf...holy hell that looks bad", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Al Quinn
4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F
public
contract
1,719,955,530,542
will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
AlQuinn
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
vbmmsrefivs
0.250325
3,936.16625
NO
null
xwea78xtdvc
false
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/politics/biden-debate-performance-democrats/index.html", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/politics/biden-debate-performance-democrats/index.html", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"CNN talked to more than two dozen", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "current and former Democratic officials,\"", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "cherrypicked however CNN likes, to push whatever narrative CNN likes", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "\"Many of these people say they have already made up their minds that the president should quit\"", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "At least 4 out of those 24+", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That part of the article is only an existence proof, in other words.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jonathan Ray
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,955,943,241
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
JonathanRay
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
0.618473
2,095,865.09364
YES
null
6j1n26q0pb
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Plugging my fun market, feel free to add more players.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/GazDownright/who-will-be-in-the-official-uefa-eu", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gaz Downright
UQIVR5EPgi2JSmHoWB5C
public
contract
1,719,956,210,783
uefa-euro-cup-2024-tournament-prop
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
UEFA Euro Cup 2024 Tournament Prop Bets ⚽ LIVE!
null
null
1,700.792135
YES
rr95gvgn8p
i5jfs60x0en
false
8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ivanka Trump???", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Sss
m3miGzEN46jKxwbu6Y00
public
contract
1,719,956,219,381
who-will-be-guests-on-the-lex-fridm
Sss19971997
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c
Who will be guests on the Lex Fridman podcast in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
afydbdkpq09
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The tournament is down to eight teams!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Gaz Downright
27hp9crind
public
contract
1,719,956,321,685
who-will-be-in-the-official-uefa-eu
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Who will be in the official UEFA Euro 2024 Team of the Tournament?
null
null
415.516036
NO
la1dskkn9p
959hpkpgi09
false
dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Some quick calculations: There are (2*y*(x + 1))^(x*y) Turing machines with x states and y symbols. This means:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "6 states and 2 symbols: (2*2*(6 + 1))^(6*2) ~ 2.322e17 (or 232 quadrillion) machines", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3 states and 3 symbols: (2*3*(3 + 1))^(3*3) ~ 2.642e12 (or 2.642 trillion) machines", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2 states and 5 symbols: (2*5*(2 + 1))^(2*5) = 5.9049e14 (or 590.49 trillion) machines", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So just in terms of the number of machines, the order of difficulty should be ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "BB(3, 3), then BB(2, 5), then BB(6, 2)", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ". But of course there are clever ways to cut down on the number of machines that one needs to simulate (though many of them do only apply to the 2-symbol case), so maybe the actual order will be different.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
duck_master
3d2d43cngw
public
contract
1,719,956,465,366
which-busy-beaver-machine-will-be-p
duck_master
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fduck_master%2Flove-images%2F0P82jd00Lc.59?alt=media&token=eb4ef3fd-c16c-4725-a772-3879a67385a6
Which Busy Beaver machine will be proven next?
null
null
null
null
null
dtvjl2sbmz4
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "yes?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
m3miGzEN46jKxwbu6Y00
public
contract
1,719,956,471,050
who-will-be-guests-on-the-lex-fridm
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…221-72113ad45c7e
Who will be guests on the Lex Fridman podcast in 2024?
i5jfs60x0en
null
1,888.963437
YES
a7f399f9b198
vrh44e4y0g
false
uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Great, thanks. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nico
wqs4uk9wkp
public
contract
1,719,956,579,386
how-many-riders-will-wear-the-yello-7xhzxf86v5
NicoDelon
https://firebasestorage.…7d0-430cf8822ebb
How many riders will wear the yellow jersey in the 2024 Tour de France?
83jpyk5rq4o
null
684.673486
YES
86r111csp7
ko5n9syeng
false
dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Also making some quick limit orders, because only one option should resolve (so the sum should be 100%) but the market is unlinked.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
duck_master
3d2d43cngw
public
contract
1,719,956,581,839
which-busy-beaver-machine-will-be-p
duck_master
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fduck_master%2Flove-images%2F0P82jd00Lc.59?alt=media&token=eb4ef3fd-c16c-4725-a772-3879a67385a6
Which Busy Beaver machine will be proven next?
959hpkpgi09
null
506.68614
NO
tpawzhygwu
d7grrqdf78
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Trump sentencing is delayed until September 18th, as judge reviews the immunity decision.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://deepnewz.com/new-york/trump-sentencing-hush-money-case-delayed-until-september-18", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://deepnewz.com/new-york/trump-sentencing-hush-money-case-delayed-until-september-18", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F_NHJ8PdUPv.png?alt=media&token=4b6109c3-02f9-4a49-b995-cae32d0140f0", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Niko
po5P7afYMej7Nqp5waB6
public
contract
1,719,956,667,816
will-trump-be-pardoned-or-have-a-si
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
Will Trump be pardoned OR have a significant legal victory in the New York case before the election?
null
0.198698
760.31021
YES
null
tlbg2aj6v9
false
iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think this postponement is at least somewhat of a legal victory for Trump.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Since this is a delay, and not past the election, we will not yet consider it a significant victory.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "However if the judge rules in his favor, or postpones sentencing past the election, that will probably count.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Niko
po5P7afYMej7Nqp5waB6
public
contract
1,719,956,799,704
will-trump-be-pardoned-or-have-a-si
Moscow25
https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad
Will Trump be pardoned OR have a significant legal victory in the New York case before the election?
null
0.198698
760.31021
YES
null
mzth9e1y88
false
WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Democrats begin attacking Biden’s performance and campaign", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) said the president needs to step aside and usher in a “new generation of leaders.”", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Top Democrats have begun forcefully and aggressively criticizing President Joe Biden’s debate performance and pushing back against what they call an unconvincing response from his campaign to worries that he’s no longer up for the job — delivering a dire warning to the party.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), called on Biden to drop out of the race. Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), a key ally of the president, told MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell that he will back Vice President Kamala Harris if Biden steps aside. Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi said it’s completely legitimate to question whether Biden’s debate performance was “an episode or is this a condition?”", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Democratic governors are also planning to meet with Biden, possibly as soon as Wednesday, after more than two dozen gathered on a call this week to vent about the president.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/02/democrats-biden-debate-fallout-00166208", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/02/democrats-biden-debate-fallout-00166208", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno Clawfeld
CtXGJjpdV1ko1H6Rfu2v
public
contract
1,719,957,013,224
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n-cccae55809bb
BrunoClawfeld
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
0.6
6,638.949826
NO
null
scqwfw0zr6
false
WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "New York Times - Biden’s Lapses Are Said to Be Increasingly Common and Worrisome", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "People who have spent time with President Biden over the last few months or so said the lapses appear to have grown more frequent, more pronounced and, after Thursday’s debate, more worrisome.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/us/politics/biden-lapses.html", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/us/politics/biden-lapses.html", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno Clawfeld
4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F
public
contract
1,719,957,102,090
will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
BrunoClawfeld
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
null
0.266282
596.847004
NO
null
ztemge8cdj
false
CbLQASaWshXsNJkjVc3vniAOixU2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Maybe not intentionally, but if he just falls down one to many times, or gets sick, it could also happen that way.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Adam Alexander
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,957,115,522
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
AdamAlexander
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL3EAlAk4WXzvRiPR6gj1m5NQCJjcuxCDKM2z1-J7Ar=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
l45tno1v698
0.615407
3,290.844634
NO
null
cvtboxnhgk9
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Actually nvm I'm gonna upgrade this to Plus, & let the live trading commence", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
ldycAchEdtQjgldi3QxF
public
contract
1,719,957,141,891
will-deadpool-wolverine-2024-have-a
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will "Deadpool & Wolverine" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?
null
null
98.331272
NO
a7c5651664b6
kwev9thn6us
false
CbLQASaWshXsNJkjVc3vniAOixU2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There's no way. Polls missed the rural and frustrated buy undecided turnout last time. They're going to miss it again.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Adam Alexander
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,957,195,135
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
AdamAlexander
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL3EAlAk4WXzvRiPR6gj1m5NQCJjcuxCDKM2z1-J7Ar=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
26cfhkw1q8a
0.614986
3,290.844634
NO
null
cqluj70m1wa
false
dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3", "label": "EvanDaniel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " why did you N/A this?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
duck_master
3d2d43cngw
public
contract
1,719,957,209,941
which-busy-beaver-machine-will-be-p
duck_master
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fduck_master%2Flove-images%2F0P82jd00Lc.59?alt=media&token=eb4ef3fd-c16c-4725-a772-3879a67385a6
Which Busy Beaver machine will be proven next?
959hpkpgi09
null
506.68614
NO
tpawzhygwu
e0jxm6bxn1
false
WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Politico - Democrats begin attacking Biden’s performance and campaign", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) said the president needs to step aside and usher in a “new generation of leaders.”", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Top Democrats have begun forcefully and aggressively criticizing President Joe Biden’s debate performance and pushing back against what they call an unconvincing response from his campaign to worries that he’s no longer up for the job — delivering a dire warning to the party.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), called on Biden to drop out of the race. Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), a key ally of the president, told MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell that he will back Vice President Kamala Harris if Biden steps aside. Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi said it’s completely legitimate to question whether Biden’s debate performance was “an episode or is this a condition?”", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/02/democrats-biden-debate-fallout-00166208", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/02/democrats-biden-debate-fallout-00166208", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno Clawfeld
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,957,213,764
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
BrunoClawfeld
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
0.614986
538.437319
NO
null
tu4jc9qfm7r
false
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Oops. Sorry about that, should have been linked. I've resolved N/A and made a new one since this had only just gotten started:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/which-busy-beaver-machine-will-be-p-xc5phscquq", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/which-busy-beaver-machine-will-be-p-xc5phscquq", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thanks for catching that problem, and for the insightful comment!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Evan
3d2d43cngw
public
contract
1,719,957,214,163
which-busy-beaver-machine-will-be-p
EvanDaniel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c
Which Busy Beaver machine will be proven next?
959hpkpgi09
null
null
null
null
v0xwi33vjv
false
dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Reposted from the earlier market which got N/A'd.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Some quick calculations: There are (2*y*(x + 1))^(x*y) Turing machines with x states and y symbols. This means:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "6 states and 2 symbols: (2*2*(6 + 1))^(6*2) ~ 2.322e17 (or 232 quadrillion) machines", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3 states and 3 symbols: (2*3*(3 + 1))^(3*3) ~ 2.642e12 (or 2.642 trillion) machines", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2 states and 5 symbols: (2*5*(2 + 1))^(2*5) = 5.9049e14 (or 590.49 trillion) machines", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So just in terms of the number of machines, the order of difficulty should be ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "BB(3, 3), then BB(2, 5), then BB(6, 2)", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ". But of course there are clever ways to cut down on the number of machines that one needs to simulate (though many of them do only apply to the 2-symbol case), so maybe the actual order will be different.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
duck_master
324xn5o62n
public
contract
1,719,957,281,341
which-busy-beaver-machine-will-be-p-xc5phscquq
duck_master
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fduck_master%2Flove-images%2F0P82jd00Lc.59?alt=media&token=eb4ef3fd-c16c-4725-a772-3879a67385a6
Which Busy Beaver machine will be proven next?
null
null
null
null
null
7ox4c5pui96
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Goalkeeper will be a tough one! So many solid performances this tournament, but I'm assuming it'll come down to who makes the big save in the final.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The Official
27hp9crind
public
contract
1,719,957,317,261
who-will-be-in-the-official-uefa-eu
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
Who will be in the official UEFA Euro 2024 Team of the Tournament?
null
null
126.931659
YES
liys8kdc5y
d4us5qrzfhi
false
dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Some more stats (I'm excluding the \"Recovered\" column, taking the lower end of ranges only, and also rounding down to three digits after the decimal point; units in millions USD as before)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Nov 16 - Dec 15: 1888.46 (wow that's a record!)", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Oct 16 - Nov 15: 530.511", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sept 16 - Oct 15: 416.011", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Aug 16 - Sept 15: 226.068", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "July 16 - Aug 15: 326.925", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" } ], "type": "doc" }
duck_master
i8vpo6bvmh
public
contract
1,719,957,416,859
total-value-of-crypto-stolenscammed-6cwaenmut0
duck_master
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fduck_master%2Flove-images%2F0P82jd00Lc.59?alt=media&token=eb4ef3fd-c16c-4725-a772-3879a67385a6
Total value of crypto stolen/scammed between July 16th and Aug 15th as tracked by Molly White (W3IGG)
null
null
null
null
null
kpvshgtwk7
false
j3qXHWAZS4b37tlcY3u22l1D1qF3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "label": "DismalScientist", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " So July 5 then? Portions of it will air friday", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jackp
pkv2g6zr9a
public
contract
1,719,957,682,690
when-will-biden-answer-questions-fr
JackP
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcvVY6tyxghZifaQ7GB8MrRpD-9E-WScVBhQH42=s96-c
What day will Biden answer questions from reporter/s?
null
null
191.431017
YES
i18atcapdg
numig42w6qh
false
fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Jamboard:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://support.google.com/jamboard/answer/14084927", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://support.google.com/jamboard/answer/14084927", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Already on ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://killedbygoogle.com/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://killedbygoogle.com/", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ".", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
t-bird
BvMroQFmrizFmaFudzbf
public
contract
1,719,957,700,967
will-these-google-products-be-kille
tbird
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c
Will these Google products be killed this year? [Free response]
null
null
330.70704
YES
7931fe8b3b57
b49hogaocrf
false
n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "3 days until the next match! ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://emojipedia.org/disappointed-face", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "😞", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Be sure to check out the other markets in the updated Euro 2024 dashboard.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/news/uefa-euro-2024?r=VW5pdmVyc2FsRkM", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/news/uefa-euro-2024?r=VW5pdmVyc2FsRkM", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Universal FC ⚽
0oJucOh5KnlC6EM0oql2
public
contract
1,719,957,741,579
uefa-euro-2024-all-group-stage-matc
UniversalFC
https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1
UEFA EURO 2024 ⚽ All Tournament Matches
null
null
6,708.104696
NO
0daf987efcdf
6h5p1g3y79a
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The dems are about one more bad Times-Sienna poll away from open revolt at this point. Joe's future lies in Nate Cohn's hands.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,957,749,744
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
0.598357
2,442.282203
NO
null
xle7oexdytj
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.axios.com/local/chicago/2024/07/01/ohio-dnc-biden-ballot", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.axios.com/local/chicago/2024/07/01/ohio-dnc-biden-ballot", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "extremely strange—does this basically rule out an open convention? or what am I missing?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
6skv683fgj
public
contract
1,719,957,767,008
biden-officially-nominated-in-july
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Biden formally nominated in July?
null
0.485032
102.090369
YES
null
xy7npf3d7vo
false
dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "per ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/us/politics/trump-vp-pick.html", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/us/politics/trump-vp-pick.html", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " there are three (?) candidates:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Marco Rubio", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", who is monoracial (Cuban)", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "Doug Burgum", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", who also seems to be monoracial (white American?), but it's a bit unclear", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "J.D. Vance", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", who is also monoracial (Scots-Irish?)", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": false, "id": "e3ab0f40-3ee5-4b6c-96a9-b4507accf8f6", "image": null, "inputKey": "comment pV96adfayfeUOJcN4Po8comment, repost ", "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": null, "title": "nytimes.com", "tweetId": null, "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/us/politics/trump-vp-pick.html" }, "content": null, "type": "linkPreview" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "... geez the Republicans don't seem to have a lot of multiracial people between them.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
duck_master
pV96adfayfeUOJcN4Po8
public
contract
1,719,957,785,780
will-the-gop-ticket-in-2024-be-mult
duck_master
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fduck_master%2Flove-images%2F0P82jd00Lc.59?alt=media&token=eb4ef3fd-c16c-4725-a772-3879a67385a6
Will the GOP ticket in 2024 be multi-racial?
null
0.268579
136.365541
NO
null
uinun914jt
false
n9g6oDj4dqgJQyE0P0PBsex1sWI2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Current update, that I also posted on Metaculus:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Looking at ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", the actual Core CPI Number:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "In December 2023 this was 313.209. If this increases by 3.05% or more, this will resolve to yes, since this would cause it to resolve to 3.1% or more. 313.209*1.0305 = 322.762", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "For May 2024 this was 318.140, this is after 5 months. (318.140/313.209)^(1/5) = 1.00313, so 0.313% per month so far. (322.762/318.140)^(1/7) = 1.00206, so would need to increase by an average of at least 0.206% for the next seven months for this to resolve yes.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "May was actually 0.163% (rounded to 0.2%), but the six months prior all rounded to 0.3% or 0.4% 1.00206^12 = 1.02500, so the needed rate for the rest of the year would be a 2.5% annualized rate. It's possible that May represented a phase shift, and monthly numbers will stick there, but I'm doubtful.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Daniel Tilkin
9ZNPaZ7DQaXtKDOGKb6j
public
contract
1,719,957,787,482
acx-2024-will-annual-us-core-cpi-in
DanielTilkin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaD_F3MPbut-et9lJUiLj_dMo5cRkQ70utJs_egAQ=s96-c
[ACX 2024] Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?
null
0.808639
200.386878
NO
null
l8s4xqdegb
false
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That's the same ordering as the running times for the current record holder machines, which also seems like a relevant heuristic.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://wiki.bbchallenge.org/wiki/Main_Page", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://wiki.bbchallenge.org/wiki/Main_Page", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Evan
324xn5o62n
public
contract
1,719,957,806,883
which-busy-beaver-machine-will-be-p-xc5phscquq
EvanDaniel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcNNBEv2GcorWHiElPC6VlaynzKPlKxwXytwbHWc54FNIs=s96-c
Which Busy Beaver machine will be proven next?
v0xwi33vjv
null
null
null
null
zfxnjb5r1w
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Interesting that Harris and Newsom both do so poorly:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fa5y2CTl4LU.png?alt=media&token=5bfa5b58-dff0-4ef6-8160-f5e176d76637", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F
public
contract
1,719,958,077,396
will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
vbmmsrefivs
0.264457
988.14277
NO
null
l7nf1kuyk5
false
NQDRGlp1FOdx2jMmzOuiVLcvWwF3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This is the closest I have ever seen this market match up with the real-money markets", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
James Petterson
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,958,172,960
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
JamesPetterson
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbZkh1hnlH7zRYFgHVu7pFh_HAJOcAAX2_uxDXoy5sx3PoSA=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
null
null
null
null
1wrapgkhehdh
false
2DUMvA9R6nNXjQfyidwhKJitKBr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "-removed-", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Noa Nabeshima
09yu8wax0i
public
contract
1,719,958,306,545
conditional-on-biden-not-being-the
NoaNabeshima
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGG2fLz1xZY60s5Zky2ne9wKGcZ1kXwE36DRdoyA=s96-c
Conditional on Biden NOT being the Democrat nominee, what will happen? [Add your own!]
null
null
144.128303
NO
6pvxahv33v
tyovqaxoqtl
false
Lk7U1F6C5DXTTXCKYJhmwTok9Ps1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sorry! I don’t follow soccer very much, so I was waiting for all teams to qualify before resolving any team as NO", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
vibhav
fb8cmd41ef
public
contract
1,719,958,360,513
which-teams-will-qualify-for-the-qu
vibhav
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKTsn9RXrE0SP1OYtVuqcua0mnCOCxT_DTAAWHeoRGR-RU=s96-c
Which Teams Will Qualify for the Quarterfinals at the 2024 Euros?
h1tlpmhhki
null
null
null
null
ebx6sesllk
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Only 5 MCU movies have reached the rare threshold of $200M OW:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Avengers: Endgame - $357,115,007", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Spider-Man: No Way Home - $260,138,569", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Avengers: Infinity War - $257,698,183", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The Avengers - $207,438,708", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Black Panther - $202,003,951", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "And only 3 R rated movies have even crossed ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "$100M ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "OW", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": ":", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Deadpool - $132,434,639", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Deadpool 2 - $125,507,153", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It\t- $123,403,419", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "(\"Deadpool & Wolverine\" seems like a lock to smash that particular record)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
evy3lumqil
public
contract
1,719,958,445,778
how-much-will-deadpool-wolverine-20
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
How much will "Deadpool & Wolverine" (2024) gross during its domestic opening weekend?
null
null
395.849061
YES
0i8zbngob5
vgcy3ecsta
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " And of course you're buying Michelle down 😢 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lion
12ltnm3y57
public
contract
1,719,958,780,448
who-will-be-on-the-democratic-ticke
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
Who will be on the Democratic Ticket in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
4j86obwyi9p
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom", "target": "_self" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 80", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Base
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,958,999,634
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
2,244.146303
YES
b483o7mnon
7grkq67f85p
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 80, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150933", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150933", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150935", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150935", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: 4j86obwyi9p.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,021,389
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
ct9a4u0ka3j
false
yTue1A3ApPhtq3tYKBY2vxEEvG52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This seems like a lot of movement from only 1 concrete thing happening today…", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Paper Boy
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,959,022,772
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
PaperBoy
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKvvIqQ7wel-RMQneP56-S8xiaR9D7ojtRAVjiR78e5gg=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
null
0.583576
1,673.989227
YES
null
rkuls4p2bi9
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 16", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: 4j86obwyi9p, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150935", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150935", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature 9131a3963273dfa0ff4e706765ea0df55e4e33700fa95cd74d76f363e765c017be9c4a1d221e329b866426e172dc3ab1031844ff3719976efa7c4ac30f77cdfef85386fca2453b3dff711cdaccca8e1189b28be59ff952f81928ff4a6aaa1a78)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,071,724
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
9wwgopg5c27
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom", "target": "_self" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 80", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Base
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,227,644
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
2,244.146303
YES
b483o7mnon
39lgpk8rsc
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 80, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150940", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150940", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150942", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150942", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: 9wwgopg5c27.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,233,470
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
t8amox6inu
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 58", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: 9wwgopg5c27, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150942", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150942", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature 8c955d577adf73bf19301407263a4562a0137b236b6e84dce9b8b18a953618339306f38b1a7229b6a4571b28ea4aaafc14d63e7afcf7a327e9247651e33e78539abaeebcd9de07e772e7142b43be1fc4e707e0fb5eba90e7f68f59ab7dba3964)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,284,629
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
nemwmigzlhc
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom", "target": "_self" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 80", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Base
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,297,654
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
2,244.146303
YES
b483o7mnon
o4xebpudpuh
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 80, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150942", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150942", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150944", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150944", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: nemwmigzlhc.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,305,877
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
qpj1qwytoas
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 50", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: nemwmigzlhc, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150944", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150944", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature 9096780fa688aaddb1a7e78c0a9b6290a39b24b22896f45f10940922d7f7641b9a9c7dd265ebfdb82f3d5ab1de47b0c316bd0c97b5beb14438b75dce96e0e5a2a61e2999d84142e15b2c0ab173ddf1c022d400b880d4bd01823fa6cef4426f1a)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,343,030
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
r3csxt8xm6
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom", "target": "_self" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 80", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Base
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,354,781
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
2,244.146303
YES
b483o7mnon
tj2mz0tqbx
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 80, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150944", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150944", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150946", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150946", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: r3csxt8xm6.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,360,670
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
2xocuv046gk
false
kjnrvtJiAeXCryfvmqEnVoG5Avh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Seems wild that $170m sits at 93% and $215m sits is 19%. Surely tracking isn't that accurate?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
kevor
evy3lumqil
public
contract
1,719,959,384,594
how-much-will-deadpool-wolverine-20
kevor
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLNurTspI79nxGwhPOv0b6qMiLSHmI_dVif1qkHj2qO05M=s96-c
How much will "Deadpool & Wolverine" (2024) gross during its domestic opening weekend?
null
null
1,020.165744
NO
v7uwpwidwd
g2e4jxkav3m
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 15", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: r3csxt8xm6, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150946", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150946", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature a4d900c9dd6ae2a77b0c67dab3c14b873abe8e3d9d62520df7a6ff90477da284c09295c88a3e97a58a9c4668c304f15d1457331986c88ddbc39434dc8349a4947eae3e612ff9705890c33ce73593b2cae8a145064b4eb67a40bf9eb977185f84)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,405,492
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
bfsx5uz0f8
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom", "target": "_self" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 80", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Base
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,414,091
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
2,244.146303
YES
b483o7mnon
cleat7egqcd
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 80, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150946", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150946", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150948", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150948", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: bfsx5uz0f8.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,417,000
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
54ukarkd8oa
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 75", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: bfsx5uz0f8, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150948", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150948", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature 975f5f7171e0d643102a2a31d8670f91258d3c59d29408f8af0fc6e64c3de46a70c75dfdbac8252abb2127b848a1ea3114540bdac281fd43ccc8249ab110da82cd7b9d617c96af2939ae6fcf93de253553b8794b2c20089a414994f87f69eca3)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,461,880
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
ff4nslc21wj
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom", "target": "_self" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 80", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Base
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,468,271
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
2,244.146303
YES
b483o7mnon
dvgjiveqhow
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 80, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150948", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150948", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150950", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150950", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: ff4nslc21wj.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,473,543
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
cgw5zyq1hbl
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 27", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: ff4nslc21wj, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150950", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150950", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature 93e9d16a2fd673fa6e04384aa4bc78cb877a22e28c24115aa7401adfe145a4980dc46f7aed72b99aa98a3661470fe86b1156171fb11b3c5733df9e2457dabbecb6cd5de79b2ff8d3b0e737615ceadb46acb615f120ce52276d93808130eca7b0)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,524,526
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
owcxfncplgi
false
9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I believe the \"correct\" option is not listed. I pronounce it like it rhymes with \"deem.\"", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Quroe
4swq4rgio4
public
contract
1,719,959,584,545
which-will-be-the-majority-pronunci
Quroe
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c
Which will be the majority pronunciation of the term “meme” by the year 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
497lke7u6dv
false
LTxdwMZvemUdpLVOAHKRPuivGwV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think 5 is probably right although I did put money on 6 originally. I hoped the break would win today and someone take it from Carapaz.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Bardet, Tadej, Richay. (I went for the rhymes)", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Remco on Friday.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Tadej/Jonas back and forth tussle in week 3.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
iamczecksy
wqs4uk9wkp
public
contract
1,719,959,640,377
how-many-riders-will-wear-the-yello-7xhzxf86v5
Iamczecksy
https://firebasestorage.…d34-5df471ce456d
How many riders will wear the yellow jersey in the 2024 Tour de France?
x82s7cupa0b
null
90.920576
YES
23edzgbyjg
pjfoaglphdg
false
n5iFIJziFHYty5qrcxgyb0D3Zok2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "skewed by guys like this ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FrXb8xT0bdA.jpeg?alt=media&token=b8a660af-3ed5-4a97-83a4-b44f55e53b77", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bill
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,959,773,500
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Bill
https://firebasestorage.…dce-3604a9ef0db8
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
l7nf1kuyk5
0.583471
40,351.950148
NO
null
m3z97dzbxpq
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't know why letting the break win and take the yellow jersey is so out of style 😢. That's three races in one, so much more fun.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lion
wqs4uk9wkp
public
contract
1,719,959,847,584
how-many-riders-will-wear-the-yello-7xhzxf86v5
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
How many riders will wear the yellow jersey in the 2024 Tour de France?
x82s7cupa0b
null
539.036687
NO
86r111csp7
bc5osblt1rk
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom", "target": "_self" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 80", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Base
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,928,491
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
2,244.146303
YES
b483o7mnon
u23or2hqoa
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 80, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150963", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150963", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150965", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150965", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: bc5osblt1rk.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,935,069
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
raim63a1ul9
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " your random number is: 75", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Salt: bc5osblt1rk, round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150965", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150965", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (signature a116d96101f1b91eccabd171b86d9c0a600e76b5b7e671b5efa8358f367cc22b7db263e189d61c9fcba91a343f2cdb10137a536868e386a8b22db98dab43fef3c46d7b156a0f537d9186f997486b27163b04e461fd78c7e73ad606bcbfe7b51d)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,976,667
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
po24uq9shz
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That's probably right. Anecdotally, I'd agree that Manifold probably underrates the tails in box office projections—it's not very satisfying placing a bet that'll feel dumb & wrong most of the time (when the tracking is ~fine), and it's easy to see a bunch of forecasts all agree and think that implies certainty (when they're just all reading the same potentially flawed numbers). I don't have any real faith that the tail probabilities were any good for e.g. GxK, Inside Out 2, etc the big tracking beats (the stakes are pretty low so people get sloppy). ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So I agree >$170M is being pushed too high (I've got some NO there at the extreme). E.g. \"Inside Out 2\" just beat its tracking by ~50%, that's an enormous range. But generally I'd say that huge tracking ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "beats", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " are more common than huge tracking ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "misses", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (trackers have a good sense of pre-sales, which gives you a bit of a floor to work with, whereas they can't really account for the scenarios where a movie \"takes off\", there's some asymmetry there). So I do think it's fitting that >$215 is more likely than <$170.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "(FWIW I'm mostly on hiatus from tracking box office stuff so I haven't actually been looking at what the trackers are saying about Deadpool 3, have only looked at a few final estimates, so no clue how confident they actually are in this case.)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
evy3lumqil
public
contract
1,719,959,978,755
how-much-will-deadpool-wolverine-20
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
How much will "Deadpool & Wolverine" (2024) gross during its domestic opening weekend?
2xocuv046gk
null
427.867827
NO
d1bzkhvbj
7ixgps9b96r
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/FairlyRandom", "target": "_self" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 80", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Base
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,987,449
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
2,244.146303
YES
b483o7mnon
hbvsnfp9kw
false
n5iFIJziFHYty5qrcxgyb0D3Zok2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Great analysis… very insightful ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bill
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,719,959,991,879
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Bill
https://firebasestorage.…dce-3604a9ef0db8
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
l45tno1v698
0.59
40,351.950148
NO
null
4wmc6wfgwjr
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 80, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150965", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150965", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150967", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150967", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: 7ixgps9b96r.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,959,997,196
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
m4ewgkg0fvs
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": 3, "src": null, "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://manifold.markets/Base", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "@Base", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you asked for a random integer between 1 and 80, inclusive. Coming up shortly!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "heading" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "GitHub", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", previous round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150966", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150966", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " (", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/latest", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "latest", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "), offset: 2, selected round: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": null, "href": "https://api.drand.sh/8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce/public/4150968", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "4150968", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ", salt: 7ixgps9b96r.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,960,047,154
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
6mygazqsyrp
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
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FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,960,047,284
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
xh2028ziixo
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
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FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,719,960,047,854
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null