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... | Odoacre | 9QsfOW232lNnFj6ASRrZ | public | contract | 1,720,003,450,839 | what-is-worse-than-financial-crimes | Odoacre | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a | What is worse than committing a financial crime? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "I think I will bet Yes cause UK has been stagnant for a while despite having some good fundamentals (Great Unis, prominent Tech companies like DMind an... | Janko Prester | 8GBJppKZi0gwGX2ukPAP | public | contract | 1,720,003,658,511 | will-uks-real-gdp-growth-for-year-2 | JankoPrester | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLAD31qKcBjk4YAMresN9ZEEOxk-MSW9RTfS5yB_rG-sqBM=s96-c | Will UK's real GDP growth for year 2025 exceed 1% under Labor party? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "Relevantly, this is an explicit goal that they have, and they've recently started launching partnerships with other organisations with a goal of accele... | Ben Millwood | V9JXUt5DUKKfdSCrCaJ1 | public | contract | 1,720,003,748,011 | will-giving-what-we-can-reach-10000 | BenMillwood | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu21mKWikkYCgEzoTfLCUvAmKR0oTfK1vjdhCysmxg=s96-c | Will Giving What We Can reach 10,000 active 10% pledges in 2024? | null | 0.332946 | 29.949673 | YES | null |
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... | Pat Scott🩴 | z0xj9vne49 | public | contract | 1,720,003,864,117 | will-tsla-reach-550-before-8pm-est | Stralor | Will TSLA reach >$ 550 before 8pm EST on 8/8/25? | fclwpoz70yn | 0.35 | 56.444617 | NO | null | |
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"text": "They are not winning Ohio either way, so they could write it off, but I suppose that would make them look even stupider and disheveled than now, while ... | Al Quinn | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,004,494,916 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | AlQuinn | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | ifrscuqicgf | 0.573037 | 17,706.775136 | NO | null |
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"text": "Feels like a lot of crazy things can happen by that time, including new revolutionary fertility treatments, possible mass migration to Europe from popu... | Janko Prester | dfn8GENUcYtJknMlMWvK | public | contract | 1,720,004,651,309 | will-any-eu-country-achieve-fertili | JankoPrester | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLAD31qKcBjk4YAMresN9ZEEOxk-MSW9RTfS5yB_rG-sqBM=s96-c | Will any EU country achieve fertility rate >=2.0 by the end of 2032? | null | 0.280285 | 36.06328 | YES | null |
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... | kevor | z0xj9vne49 | public | contract | 1,720,005,474,258 | will-tsla-reach-550-before-8pm-est | kevor | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLNurTspI79nxGwhPOv0b6qMiLSHmI_dVif1qkHj2qO05M=s96-c | Will TSLA reach >$ 550 before 8pm EST on 8/8/25? | fclwpoz70yn | 0.35 | 2,201.603029 | NO | null |
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"text": "Anyone else thinking about just making an LLM beat a super gm now? Could just fine tune a llama model with a multi-format regime to help generalise… ju... | Robert Newton | LPxYV8cUXZOwTUe5ufrj | public | contract | 1,720,005,765,038 | will-a-large-language-models-beat-a | RobertNewton | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAKLi_Ue1JIv3kLf4fsg4kcf3gwlz8ReI3ViwploYCBhR_bg=s96-c | Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": " Will a dog get to the Moon before humans establish a permanent lunar base? While the idea is intriguing, current space missions prioritize human explo... | bobby bobby | xAQZTQmMBbDnNDeO6YuZ | public | contract | 1,720,006,464,885 | will-a-dog-get-to-the-moon-before-a | bobbybobby | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIuWsXB8O-PFLphaIhbT-QufHLVFJvjEjzGp1fnj7P4drNZQA=s96-c | Will a dog get to the moon before a cat? | null | null | null | null | null |
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"text": "okay, no need for more of this. he made a mistake and acknowledged it, just as you did. let's end the beef here",
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"l... | Michael Wheatley | jx4l25izlj | public | contract | 1,720,008,033,719 | can-this-candle-be-saved-slow-burn | MichaelWheatley | Can this candle be saved? [SLOW BURN] | null | null | null | null | null | |
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"text": "I think their corruption is aligned with getting rid of Biden at this point... of course, it's a battle of the corrupt versus the corrupt even within t... | jim | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,008,133,926 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | jim | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | vcnimu2nivk | 0.569195 | 152,615.278263 | NO | null | |
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... | Susanne inFrance | jro2bq9wla | public | contract | 1,720,008,528,958 | which-exact-wordsphrases-will-biden | SusanneinFrance | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIDOs86WcHU8dwcDIj414T7jk_b0RgedXuz4g-gxhsW=s96-c | Which exact words/phrases will Biden say in the ABC interview? | null | null | 69.88757 | YES | 0kk0pk9eli |
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... | Stuart Slagle | a6rbka16be | public | contract | 1,720,008,581,980 | after-stage-5-of-the-2024-tour-de-f | ovals | After Stage 5 of the 2024 Tour de France, who will wear the Maillot Jaune? | null | null | 1,220.313721 | YES | eld70pnn0m | |
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"text": "This has been well-studied. A more pertinent question may be will we reach the threshold, keeping in mind that indoor air is nearly always higher in C... | Jack Hammer | vQSLnYiQij72weDpl5vb | public | contract | 1,720,010,200,535 | do-high-levels-of-carbon-dioxide-ha | Slackhammer | Do high levels of carbon dioxide have significant negative impacts on cognition? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Al Quinn | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,010,495,044 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | AlQuinn | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp46gOxO4QNQsQ8T4KOcwIwbRQPb2PvzEwr7f8nE=s96-c | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | null | 0.52 | 17,706.775136 | NO | null |
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"text": "\"Cognition\" needs to be defined better. Do headaches count? Does slight anxiety? Short term or long term? A submariner, for example, is expected ... | Jack Hammer | vQSLnYiQij72weDpl5vb | public | contract | 1,720,010,526,779 | do-high-levels-of-carbon-dioxide-ha | Slackhammer | Do high levels of carbon dioxide have significant negative impacts on cognition? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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"text": "Damn. We’re not getting Ohtani or Judge. Phooey.",
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"text": "What does \"5000 Israeli troops\" mean? Do they all have to be inside Lebanon at the same time? And how does this resolve if the exact numbers are not ... | Sodann | tBGcZLmjl88GIfTj0zzm | public | contract | 1,720,010,687,723 | will-israel-invade-lebanon-before-s | Sodann | Will Israel invade Lebanon before September 1, 2024? | null | 0.605536 | 643.66938 | YES | null | |
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... | stefanie | mYsjE8Wza38hr6UW34Xe | public | contract | 1,720,010,757,162 | which-national-political-figures-wi | shankypanky | The Sexual Marketplace: Which national political figures will have a new sex scandal (true or not) before 2025? | null | null | 2,605.341691 | YES | f4ae593f74a8 | |
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"text": "Sounds like a trick question. I cannot tell whether it tries to describe Sweden, some country in the Middle East, or a genuine hypothetical case.",
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"text": "One other clarification: What it means to \"endorse\". I'm looking for an official endorsement in terms of voting, and not something informal like, \"I... | Tsunombie | 9nnzx5izg0jsfP7aDmBG | public | contract | 1,720,012,092,240 | will-taylor-swift-endorse-a-candida | Tsunombie | Will Taylor Swift endorse a candidate other than Joe Biden for the 2024 presidential election? | null | 0.17 | 440.940264 | YES | null | |
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... | Dpeng | YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM | public | contract | 1,720,012,520,100 | will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n | Putcallparity | Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | cnxjduwvan6 | 0.511545 | 283.84819 | YES | null | |
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"text": "I am betting Harris even though I don’t think she will be the eventual nominee. Hard to choose someone new without first passing through a regime where... | aashiq | QYDwthI7pHyF2tvVK0VZ | public | contract | 1,720,012,705,197 | who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38 | aashiq | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4VZlz6mNajaBLii3A0z76YIPyr0zXxzVWxdAy8=s96-c | Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? | 4py3yawgjah | null | 96.351619 | YES | 191da45534e5 |
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"text": "Would like to understand the machanics of this. Almost all bets are Yes but the % has hardly shifted. Can you point me to an explanation. And what it m... | Chris Mills | vms15yy4ppjAADvH0wuc | public | contract | 1,720,013,067,115 | will-larry-chief-mouser-to-the-cabi | ChrisMillsc5f7 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLmttkO7a_SkKKmgvJV_wh3BtRxvZZxf0PCf1Z7MbCn=s96-c | Will Larry, Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office, live to see another Prime Minister? | null | 0.934579 | 3,935.917873 | YES | null |
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"content": ... | The Official | yz3dhkm7J7SmPwej8Ryv | public | contract | 1,720,013,376,147 | who-will-win-the-2024-copa-america | 10thOfficial | Who will win the 2024 Copa América? | null | null | 164.628098 | YES | 67963dca9afc | |
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"text": "Minus the words 'lunacy' and 'ridiculous' and I somewhat agree; mass vaccination is definitely associated with the left wing atm",
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"type": "menti... | Quantum Gambler | SsAdHNNaI9hRRMe1XqgG | public | contract | 1,720,013,841,309 | will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres | Mirek | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election? | kpcfw14ymw | 0.566026 | 428.026351 | YES | null |
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... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,720,013,865,159 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | ljx2tre60t | null | 147.699591 | NO | dcfbedc0e892 |
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} | Jack Hammer | 72yMRTBHTQzzbpGZWpZV | public | contract | 1,720,014,151,439 | is-it-possible-to-hack-an-average-h | Slackhammer | Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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"label": "MattF"... | Quantum Gambler | xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f | public | contract | 1,720,014,276,727 | will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e | Mirek | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMirek%2FHT1snXZm5P.51?alt=media&token=3ba36ff2-73b1-44fb-9d34-e0da533f7055 | Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8? | z56zy6i8bbb | 0.436669 | 16,321.787004 | YES | null |
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... | Jack Hammer | 72yMRTBHTQzzbpGZWpZV | public | contract | 1,720,014,294,213 | is-it-possible-to-hack-an-average-h | Slackhammer | Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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... | stefanie | 72yMRTBHTQzzbpGZWpZV | public | contract | 1,720,014,570,387 | is-it-possible-to-hack-an-average-h | shankypanky | Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors? | v7rr1h13cfk | null | null | null | null | |
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... | Steve Sokolowski | w4l6r8bqau | public | contract | 1,720,014,720,727 | will-joe-biden-drop-out-of-the-elec | SteveSokolowski | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | jxuwwzg0ab | null | null | null | null |
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} | Predictor 🔥 | 096HIAtcBLIEsWFHxCLU | public | contract | 1,720,014,840,832 | will-apple-resume-advertising-on-x | Predictor | Will Apple resume advertising on X before July 1st, 2024? | null | 0.010161 | 26.877495 | NO | null | |
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... | The Official | nm3d4bo7yp | public | contract | 1,720,015,148,021 | will-the-usa-win-todays-mens-footba | 10thOfficial | Will the USA win today's men's football/soccer match against Uraguay on July 1? | awcqphpjk9r | 0.01 | 7,646.127321 | NO | null | |
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... | The Official | E7WQu6FpL9QJVBEawQKP | public | contract | 1,720,015,211,511 | will-tim-cook-be-the-ceo-of-apple-a-3058da2534db | 10thOfficial | Will Tim Cook be the CEO of Apple (AAPL) at the end of 2024-Q2? | yh6310f064 | 0.99 | 3,416.033144 | YES | null | |
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"content": ... | Dan. W. | 5cmCRKoOmoDMGC4JR8Cz | public | contract | 1,720,015,578,365 | how-many-felonies-will-trump-be-con | DanW | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp62lIWkw3f9_ZrkLQFa_pDCqpauwNf9Lu2EI8mA=s96-c | How many felonies will Trump be convicted of by 2027? | null | null | null | null | null |
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... | Soli ꩜ | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,720,015,833,381 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | Soli | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | null | null | null | null | null | |
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5k4ddft6ppw | false | iEE5Xt4StNg7Wtu1pNN6YE5v1S23 | {
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0fbfcjeihbng | false | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | {
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kndmkob9hhi | false | H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1 | {
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... | Christopher Randles | arg7axt8zj | public | contract | 1,720,017,654,560 | will-the-sp-500-open-on-july-3rd-hi | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | Will the S&P 500 open on July 3rd higher than its previous day close? | null | 0.033348 | 7,892.385212 | NO | null |
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