id
stringlengths
8
13
isApi
bool
2 classes
userId
stringlengths
28
28
content
dict
userName
stringlengths
1
30
contractId
stringlengths
9
20
visibility
stringclasses
2 values
commentType
stringclasses
1 value
createdTime
int64
1,716B
1,720B
contractSlug
stringlengths
5
48
userUsername
stringlengths
1
25
userAvatarUrl
stringlengths
50
1.03k
contractQuestion
stringlengths
2
240
replyToCommentId
stringlengths
8
20
commentorPositionProb
float64
0
50
commentorPositionShares
float64
-0
6.25M
commentorPositionOutcome
stringclasses
2 values
commentorPositionAnswerId
stringlengths
9
12
vlyq6tyzexa
false
rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "aub1q86f7ar", "label": "KongoLandwalker", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " 99% seems like more than just projecting hopes - that must be people who misunderstood the situation and thought that the chief prosecutor has the power to issue arrest warrants or something!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Simon Grayson
xNjZXoTvCQMcZ6U1U0dm
public
contract
1,716,286,401,342
will-benjamin-netanyahu-ever-be-arr
SimonGrayson
https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696
Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?
39adm5f0ijr
null
null
null
null
0gtugnaqyn9
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vlyq6tyzexa", "label": "SimonGrayson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " was my mistake. I was checking 2 different questions in the morning and confused their percentages. 99% for \"ICC brings charges\".", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kongo Landwalker
xNjZXoTvCQMcZ6U1U0dm
public
contract
1,716,286,511,094
will-benjamin-netanyahu-ever-be-arr
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?
39adm5f0ijr
0.220732
68.298317
NO
null
puf4deh2qwj
false
ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "oag188xi86d", "label": "adele", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Whatever is commonly understood as “RNA World” hypothesis/theory in 2040. It could happen that this theory will be considered proven, but there would still be some remaining gaps in the explanation of abiogenesis.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Oleg Eterevsky
0JL7mlHVHdVnJDrwwDVC
public
contract
1,716,286,764,400
what-will-be-the-consensus-about-rn
OlegEterevsky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c
What will be the consensus about RNA world hypothesis in 2040?
oag188xi86d
null
null
null
null
va9qvloosvp
false
h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What if you settle? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Benjamin Ikuta
54XjmXjs44d3vAQ1D4PW
public
contract
1,716,287,237,063
will-wells-fargo-sue-me
benjaminIkuta
https://firebasestorage.…42c-4fd343f08410
Will Wells Fargo sue me?
null
0.690678
77.289934
YES
null
znlbvv3m1kj
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Has America ever considered that politicizing the courts ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "might", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " be a bad idea?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno
TlAwFxpxKC9rP2hZkCtf
public
contract
1,716,287,389,423
who-will-win-the-georgia-state-supr
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Who will win the Georgia State Supreme Court election?
null
null
null
null
null
3x1ejfy5op9
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Visa is approved. Processing time + courier is 7 days. There is a UK holiday on 27 May. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rana G
fykEZi2rlnefDLgto4Wc
public
contract
1,716,287,390,705
will-ranag-get-her-us-visa-approved
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
will @RanaG get her US visa approved before her travel date on May 30?
null
null
null
null
null
s1mbfyrbwnm
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gtuak599x5", "label": "tbird", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You may find the following pages of interest", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Introductions and advocacy pieces", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Wild Animal Suffering by Vegan Hacktavists ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://wildanimalsuffering.org/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "https://wildanimalsuffering.org/", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Wild Animal Welfare Problem Profile by 80,000 Hours ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/wild-animal-welfare/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/wild-animal-welfare/", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why Wild Animals by Animal Charity Evaluators ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/why-wild-animals/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/why-wild-animals/", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The Importance of Wild Animal Suffering by Brian Tomasik and Center for Long-Term Risk ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://longtermrisk.org/the-importance-of-wild-animal-suffering/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "https://longtermrisk.org/the-importance-of-wild-animal-suffering/", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Research", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Wild Animal Initiative ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.wildanimalinitiative.org/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "https://www.wildanimalinitiative.org/", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Animal Ethics ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Essays on Reducing Suffering by Brian Tomasik ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://reducing-suffering.org/#wild-animal_suffering", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "https://reducing-suffering.org/#wild-animal_suffering", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Rethink Priorities ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://rethinkpriorities.org/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "https://rethinkpriorities.org/", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Misc", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Wild Animal Suffering on Wikipedia ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" }, { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,287,455,680
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
aeds4p4ut9c
false
Fxsi2an7IoMsNLyq1ODqsXZIMqC3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "w144rdzq4qd", "label": "singer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I bet them in +EV limit orders. Why do people trade with me? I don’t really know. Gambling mostly (I think). It’s also a way to collect the daily bet streak bonus without thinking ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "too", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " hard but I don’t see too many people using it that way.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Benjamin Manns
ntrts8wCTG4JSzUIKubO
public
contract
1,716,287,742,809
hourly-coinflip-limits-at-51-49
benmanns
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKkghDuSf2qFv60YgKDe4sB83Qr5ah-gRmsZWJ4Y8cUS4oz=s96-c
Daily coinflip with better odds (Limits at 51, 49)
w144rdzq4qd
0.500244
0
NO
null
l6jwkrn1cdc
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gtuak599x5", "label": "tbird", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F_y6o8cFjC0.jpg?alt=media&token=909d58a5-9e54-4130-a301-ea9582c0734a", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FA5S47RyIbq.jpg?alt=media&token=85da96cd-6d51-427b-87f3-2861fe433398", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/the-welfare-range-table", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/the-welfare-range-table", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": "This is the second post in the Moral Weight Project Sequence. The aim of \nthis post is to provide an overview of the Welfare Range Table, which \nrecords the results of a literature review covering over 90 empirical \ntraits across 11 farmed species.", "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": false, "id": "cd4e52ec-3e77-4e89-97cb-b08d1f91cfee", "image": "http://static1.squarespace.com/static/6035868111c9bd46c176042b/t/624d907ec74c9c32662e02d4/1649250430157/SAVE+2.png?format=1500w", "inputKey": "comment Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIfcomment vzwgzxz9hx", "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": null, "title": "The Welfare Range Table — Rethink Priorities", "tweetId": null, "url": "https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/the-welfare-range-table" }, "content": null, "type": "linkPreview" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,287,861,402
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
2aq2rd0my77
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gtuak599x5", "label": "tbird", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F0uyr2MrUoH.jpg?alt=media&token=c67896ee-20b9-4820-9708-b69df1e2750b", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Source: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/welfare-range-estimates", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/welfare-range-estimates", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": "This is the eighth post in the Moral Weight Project Sequence, which \nprovides an overview of the research Rethink Priorities conducted between \nMay 2021 and October 2022 on making resource allocation decisions across \nspecies. In this post, Senior Research Manager Bob Fischer briefly recaps \nthe research team’s understanding of welfare ranges and their proposed way \nof using them. The post also summarizes the methodology and responds to \nsome questions and objections.", "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": false, "id": "edeabd94-9616-470c-9446-4c3e3a32e38f", "image": "http://static1.squarespace.com/static/6035868111c9bd46c176042b/t/624d907ec74c9c32662e02d4/1649250430157/SAVE+2.png?format=1500w", "inputKey": "comment Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIfcomment vzwgzxz9hx", "language": null, "level": null, "src": null, "start": null, "title": "Rethink Priorities’ Welfare Range Estimates — Rethink Priorities", "tweetId": null, "url": "https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/welfare-range-estimates" }, "content": null, "type": "linkPreview" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,287,920,344
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
rb0u68pj8yl
false
fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "s1mbfyrbwnm", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " thank you.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The spider didn't suffer, I am quick with my slipper. Neither were the insects that spider was going to mercilessly eat spared any suffering.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Tomasik is thoroughly unconvincing and handwavy.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
t-bird
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,287,942,343
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
tbird
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
8quj5wb1ldc
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rb0u68pj8yl", "label": "tbird", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " could you elaborate as to why he is unconvincing? If he's wrong then my worldview changes considerably so if you have a good critique then it's better I know sooner rather than later in life lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,288,074,690
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
iw1uj6bixtm
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8qmm5x975", "label": "adssx", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " yeah like that, similar to the min corporation tax agreement they did a few years ago", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
RemNi
EsgvJC0AH9ndWCwWHTvx
public
contract
1,716,288,308,809
will-there-be-a-global-wealth-or-in
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will there be a global wealth or income tax by 2035?
u83vigiu0s
null
null
null
null
xbp5zz9n0z
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8or0u9eya24", "label": "SanghyeonSeo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " one way I can think of is using a web-based \"instagram to mp4\" service, then look at the length of the mp4 video file", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
RemNi
9KvkpyonZ2LH7hjXa5Fz
public
contract
1,716,288,386,509
will-an-ai-generated-instagram-vide
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will an AI generated Instagram video reach 10M views before 2025?
8or0u9eya24
0.799251
38.034811
YES
null
vndngjiejzc
false
J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "va9qvloosvp", "label": "benjaminIkuta", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " The resolution would be ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "YES", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " if a court action begins and ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "NO", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " if it does not.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I already sent them a settlement offer, which they declined. My experience with suing the city of Tallahassee, Coinbase, Square, and Angi is that no matter how strong the case, these companies always ignore the problem until well after interest and court costs accumulate, and then only come to the table after a lawsuit is filed.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You can bet ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "NO", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " if you believe Wells Fargo will suddenly turn around and settle. I think the most likely resolution will be that I sue Wells Fargo, and then after that a settlement is reached a month later, which would be ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "bold" } ], "text": "YES", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": ".", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Steve Sokolowski
54XjmXjs44d3vAQ1D4PW
public
contract
1,716,288,715,400
will-wells-fargo-sue-me
SteveSokolowski
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c
Will Wells Fargo sue me?
va9qvloosvp
null
null
null
null
37u6wf59rtv
false
DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "iw1uj6bixtm", "label": "RemNi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " OK. I updated the description to make this clear.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Antoine Dusséaux
EsgvJC0AH9ndWCwWHTvx
public
contract
1,716,288,734,287
will-there-be-a-global-wealth-or-in
adssx
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c
Will there be a global wealth or income tax by 2035?
u83vigiu0s
0.316071
94.465832
YES
null
4zfpgp48u93
false
KQIZEaeOOwVatEt07ktQ1mV4CMk1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "r9a9x4lwq", "label": "Magyk", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " US is not included because they didn’t ratify the statute. Criteria updated. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nsokolsky
GUOdVh1FxxTsw4VYptME
public
contract
1,716,288,872,985
conditional-on-a-warrant-will-netan
nsokolsky
https://firebasestorage.…3fd-0bf53e95c42d
Conditional on a warrant, will Netanyahu visit at least one nation that recognizes ICC jurisdiction within 6 months?
r9a9x4lwq
0.489219
94.465832
YES
null
ex9bp90zxlb
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "05.06.2024", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "2.3 km", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0 km", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "199 pushups", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "476 squats", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "121 pullups", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kongo Landwalker
TcYnACd1FeO2WxjauWq7
public
contract
1,716,289,304,289
who-will-complete-these-tasks-first
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Who will complete these tasks first? "Yes" for @Awex, "No" for @KongoLandwalker.
null
null
null
null
null
pznsi6dxlp
false
h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vndngjiejzc", "label": "SteveSokolowski", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " thanks for the reply. Besides them suddenly turning around like that, is there anything else that could realistically lead to a NO resolution?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Benjamin Ikuta
54XjmXjs44d3vAQ1D4PW
public
contract
1,716,289,440,587
will-wells-fargo-sue-me
benjaminIkuta
https://firebasestorage.…42c-4fd343f08410
Will Wells Fargo sue me?
va9qvloosvp
0.704757
77.289934
YES
null
pvh8wqyb6t
false
oW4MehIViwQmvuOszYtGHUQrD9N2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who will win the IPL,who", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ketul
E0edSLrDpEBvWiu5vsbF
public
contract
1,716,289,463,436
will-scarlett-johansson-receive-mon
Ketul
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKXnTLIdbPvOKG27x1slegdbnEegTIl85Ab7DQhNq4tOemw=s96-c
Will Scarlett Johansson receive money from OpenAI as a settlement, compensation, or damages by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
73mumconls2
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Trump currently up in Michigan ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Shaked Koplewitz
NUXIc7rdgRmydRmlxDWu
public
contract
1,716,289,473,521
which-party-will-win-the-us-preside-7e7362326c95
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Which party will win the US Presidency in Michigan?
null
null
99.515153
YES
a4aca058aa35
eonm9mow6yd
false
h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Just put a limit at 89 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Benjamin Ikuta
nhtqRLHoNXRXYe9bEm8m
public
contract
1,716,289,842,109
will-trump-beat-biden-in-national-p
benjaminIkuta
https://firebasestorage.…42c-4fd343f08410
Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of June? (538)
null
0.899559
55.19278
YES
null
1k57de6qr3h
false
xwMki73QMuMqZuKJYVj2sweCIKn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "m2vyijwm5p", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " nice analysis! 👍", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Scipio Fabius
DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ
public
contract
1,716,289,952,180
will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha
ScipioFabius
https://firebasestorage.…63c-5ef26e7166e2
Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?
m2vyijwm5p
null
514.545826
YES
341ff8d448a1
s177amoozel
false
ErYi9CkSUCfzMI8wjvDwEF52OjB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The word ‘ever’ means it may take a while to solve to a No (if that’s indeed an outcome). Maybe rephrase the question differently ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Andre W
xNjZXoTvCQMcZ6U1U0dm
public
contract
1,716,290,277,213
will-benjamin-netanyahu-ever-be-arr
AndreW50f5
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI04ogroV0u7-vp-0paO1USfpTbAkItqtKeIel54Knf=s96-c
Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?
null
null
null
null
null
3gusm810zes
false
fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8quj5wb1ldc", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " bah, that would be a long rebuke, and I wouldn't want to be responsible for changing your worldview.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
t-bird
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,290,895,826
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
tbird
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
tkvmj6p0dkk
false
0trb3mwgiWc2gsPn7AqeHiEzXuU2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "h19g0h9m2lb", "label": "singer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " How do you end up owner of the machine?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Donald
CPfMjdbOrD8LNMjiKWmD
public
contract
1,716,290,975,278
will-working-be-necessary-in-2070
Donald
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz8FznDUav6nMo39bAo1a4bgdeFlljmg5Cjb4Tc=s96-c
Will working be necessary in 2070?
CV7Do6jbn3YQu9lW8ss3
0.368762
29,561.617757
YES
null
q0x9pc275uc
false
GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "iu836ea192", "label": "dglid", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Arr I knew it! Shouldn’t have bought that june contrac 😆 Welcome to the world of school-age kids! You will learn to make the most of the days when no-one is sick. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hope everyone feels better soon!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ansel
pYlgQEFfJjTHfgHgZm82
public
contract
1,716,291,093,838
when-will-my-son-first-bring-home-a
Ansel
https://firebasestorage.…469-935b0d72b0a1
When will my son first bring home a sickness from daycare?
iu836ea192
null
21.660831
YES
0b35c8620973
1e3qe17uxm8
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "yhMjQ7Ph9AgzMQHPSnWJ4EwFVu12", "label": "NLeseul", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/20/24161079/volvo-aurora-autonomous-truck-class-8-production-design", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/20/24161079/volvo-aurora-autonomous-truck-class-8-production-design", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://techcrunch.com/2024/05/20/aurora-volvo-unveil-self-driving-truck-driverless-future/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://techcrunch.com/2024/05/20/aurora-volvo-unveil-self-driving-truck-driverless-future/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This is not probably the commercial product you have in mind (which I believe was the hardware kit they had planned with Continental) as they are purpose built trucks for self driving, but I think it still qualifies as a commercial product of Aurora jointly with Volvo, assuming they do get on the road this year.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Let me know if this qualifies as commercial or not as this isn’t seemingly a fleet service or a kit as in your resolution criteria.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
JRP
UBHKK3434WseCwHW4JzB
public
contract
1,716,291,503,695
will-aurora-innovations-driverless
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
Will Aurora Innovation's driverless vehicle control system be used commercially by the end of 2024?
null
0.297724
114.514256
YES
null
ar6925lksdg
false
Hl00u2lWwcgYwYV92yvK1uWTPav1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Betting no because the ETF is rumored to be approved on the 23rd but not before the 23rd. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bob Snodgrass
C0l7BQXSIWtlCvzD9Cef
public
contract
1,716,291,504,312
will-there-be-an-sec-approval-for-a
BobSnodgrass
https://firebasestorage.…c00-ba7907f2cf2e
Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF before May 23rd, 2024?
null
0.334317
143.628434
NO
null
2ulfbnayyss
false
GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "yalcrb8a6w", "label": "JonasVollmer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I wish there was a reference curve of “resolves yes on x” markerta so we know what the risk-free rate is here. I’m not convinced it’s anywhere close to the fed rate, mainly because people are not here purely for bottom line. Is there such a thing and I’ve missed it?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ansel
WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63
public
contract
1,716,291,525,386
will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500
Ansel
https://firebasestorage.…469-935b0d72b0a1
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
yalcrb8a6w
0.87
9,900.95174
NO
null
91l77tof39t
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F7sZheXZlNe.jpeg?alt=media&token=31b38136-14ad-49e0-b387-f9c0971484f1", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Looks like ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " misheard, they weren’t removing banned users, they were removing everyone else ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
I0XNxnd4VP2dNES0iGZ7
public
contract
1,716,291,589,093
who-will-be-1-on-the-leaderboard-af
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will be #1 on the leaderboard after the pivot profit increase?
null
null
399.355993
YES
b0a3c61184de
arwx8zrg3bp
false
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " the sequel is up! I’ll know better than to put answers 4 months out this time… 🤦‍♂️", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/dglid/when-will-my-son-bring-home-his-2nd", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
David Glidden
pYlgQEFfJjTHfgHgZm82
public
contract
1,716,291,983,491
when-will-my-son-first-bring-home-a
dglid
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
When will my son first bring home a sickness from daycare?
null
null
14.961516
YES
0c0442c86c92
p5m0cetwgrn
false
rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "s177amoozel", "label": "AndreW50f5", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " You're right that this market may take a while to resolve, but Netanyahu is 74 years old and the market resolves to NO if he dies without being arrested so the market will have to resolve sooner than some of the other long term markets on this site!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Josef Shutz was convicted for Nazi war crimes at the age of 101, over 70 years after he committed his crimes. So I don't think there's any kind of cutoff where we can say that Netnyahu has retired and will never be prosecuted:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josef_Sch%C3%BCtz", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josef_Sch%C3%BCtz", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Simon Grayson
xNjZXoTvCQMcZ6U1U0dm
public
contract
1,716,292,187,225
will-benjamin-netanyahu-ever-be-arr
SimonGrayson
https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696
Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?
s177amoozel
null
null
null
null
pffy2a6zwrh
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3gusm810zes", "label": "tbird", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " are you aware of critiques by others making similar points you could link me to?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,292,335,396
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
rtw6maqpmb
false
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Baba has a pretty severe 80/20 rule (20 percent of the total effort gets you 80% of the levels). Good luck, but I don't think it's doable.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Shaked Koplewitz
PglBs5rcGHkotQZL76ik
public
contract
1,716,292,357,547
will-panfilo-finish-baba-is-you-by
ShakedKoplewitz
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
Will @Panfilo finish Baba is You by the end of 2024?
null
0.357636
689.853469
NO
null
6m8ecnw6fjn
false
dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Subsidized this market. I think it could do with a few more subsidies and traders.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Alex B. Goode
sdXMD6TYS4g8dJE6PQVY
public
contract
1,716,292,927,406
which-party-will-win-the-european-p
AlexbGoode
https://firebasestorage.…43d-e9f8224e3fb7
Which party will win the European Parliament election?
null
null
145.029217
YES
d8fa8630b165
faa9x5d1uyr
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lVftuMmFIiDvliiKbJvO", "label": "AaronBergman18", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " how about resolving it to the percentages of your charitable giving you decide to give each organisation a year from now after having considered all arguments?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
xjOmOAxlLyrs5s1CVtkW
public
contract
1,716,293,437,019
what-donationaccepting-entity-eg-ch
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?
omh4E2zVyYCt0pOosFYK
null
null
null
null
egjlxwk50b
false
fM5S4OgOpuSgLSFew8jfWREVGj83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pffy2a6zwrh", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I haven't come across any notable cogent, comprehensive rebuke of EA and this suffering-focused ethics recently. For what it's worth, I think the content from Marian Tupy and others at ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "http://humanprogress.org", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "humanprogress.org", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " provides a good counterpoint. They focus on agency, opportunity and freedom rather than some lofty ideological goal like \"our morality and ensuing policies should be based on the reduction of suffering\".", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So much of EA are non-starters. It is hard to have a meaningful discussion on the merits of particular aspects of it when the premises are so nonsensical.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
t-bird
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,293,470,767
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
tbird
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJjMYLd65kow9CkcK3y2zMckGDSOjo6sPgbufTKzPWZ=s96-c
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
w9zu6g2ffv
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2ulfbnayyss", "label": "Ansel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " You could check the various \"AI wipes out humanity\" markets - there are many of those on different dates. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's generally been possible to do much better than those, though the recent pivot will probably reduce the gap.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63
public
contract
1,716,293,560,265
will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
yalcrb8a6w
0.87
1,248.932014
YES
null
2esspzwavs9
false
hmPDBKvC5PYuEVxg8GVnMESuh3f2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Slavko Vinčić", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Antibot
vOjQCIOhA7nbhwBJMLdm
public
contract
1,716,294,006,537
borussia-dortmund-vs-real-madrid-ch
Antibot
https://firebasestorage.…530-1409b9aa4d9c
Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid ⚽|🏆 Champions League Final Prop Bets
null
null
138.939782
NO
4eb9a1535c91
5o3ey0jngc4
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "egjlxwk50b", "label": "tbird", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " thanks, I'll check it out :)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I often find myself frustrated at how many other layman philosophies seem to have non-starter circular-reasoning premises themselves, so if this is both well-argued and layman-accessible then it could potentially open my mind a fair bit ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
Bpfc4T19JTzSDlmihAIf
public
contract
1,716,294,050,271
which-of-the-following-groups-do-yo
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Which of the following groups do you feel the strongest compassion and moral concern for, on an emotional level?
vzwgzxz9hx
null
null
null
null
gsnyysle87m
false
rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "and yeah, now we know that was an ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "exceptionally", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " lucky coin flip.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Matt C. Wilson
rZG8FyEDoMrSZ38GxLGC
public
contract
1,716,294,205,479
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-87
MattCWilson
https://firebasestorage.…c23-a3b854776865
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 87)
9zv92etugi6
null
1,187.909672
YES
1dde477200f0
rmvjlz99xw9
false
rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2", "label": "ZviMowshowitz", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " just to confirm, it does not matter what she’s paid / what she earns?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Matt C. Wilson
EeSeNRHRztdW4CsSYuZ9
public
contract
1,716,294,722,691
will-avital-balwit-be-employed-in-2
MattCWilson
https://firebasestorage.…c23-a3b854776865
Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work?
null
0.71309
1,256.836923
YES
null
ltqppw85q8b
false
J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pznsi6dxlp", "label": "benjaminIkuta", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Not realistically, no, unless the newest models have a negative opinion on the merits of all four causes of action. I used models that are now obsolete, like Gemini 1.0 and GPT-4-Turbo and Claude 2 to perform the initial research.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Steve Sokolowski
54XjmXjs44d3vAQ1D4PW
public
contract
1,716,294,901,940
will-wells-fargo-sue-me
SteveSokolowski
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c
Will Wells Fargo sue me?
va9qvloosvp
null
null
null
null
gjiumfrowwi
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bm7kqd8ox3q", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " what's wrong with you? 😔", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rana G
vK9bujGHVRqn4pMqGLaJ
public
contract
1,716,294,940,538
do-you-enjoy-gooning
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
Do you enjoy gooning?
bm7kqd8ox3q
null
null
null
null
2hravrph2lm
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Not changing material world, but signing a contract/ selling a company - would count if the seller says he wanted to win on market (in addition to other reasons)?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kongo Landwalker
Ovdg7Im8LLYrEETn39g0
public
contract
1,716,294,991,816
someone-changes-reality-to-profit-o
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Someone changes reality to profit on a manifold market before 2035 (see details)
null
null
null
null
null
u4mrfhhyrcb
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Clearer title suggestion: Will someone do something IRL to profit on Manifold that gets news/courts coverage by 2035?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
Ovdg7Im8LLYrEETn39g0
public
contract
1,716,295,104,278
someone-changes-reality-to-profit-o
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Someone changes reality to profit on a manifold market before 2035 (see details)
null
0.546929
41.818647
NO
null
zilfmokhqxs
false
OQaC0IrVMpeUFAMgsU0PE0Hvkyu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Apple's current schedule doesn't include updates to its Mac Pro and Mac Studio machines until the middle of 2025.", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "- ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://appleinsider.com/articles/24/05/19/mac-pro-and-mac-studio-refreshes-may-wait-till-2025", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "AppleInsider", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Probajoelistic
JvmTRQGlSBparSOXycZP
public
contract
1,716,295,156,928
what-existing-mac-products-will-app
probajoelistic
https://firebasestorage.…ef4-27ec116e3424
💻 What existing Mac products will Apple update in 2024?
null
null
532.265992
YES
69dff29c9fff
l916zypex6
false
OQaC0IrVMpeUFAMgsU0PE0Hvkyu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "They rated this rumor \"Likely\" which ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/news/apple-insider-rumor-scores?r=cHJvYmFqb2VsaXN0aWM", "target": "_self" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "implies", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " something like a 20% chance for these two", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Probajoelistic
JvmTRQGlSBparSOXycZP
public
contract
1,716,295,167,420
what-existing-mac-products-will-app
probajoelistic
https://firebasestorage.…ef4-27ec116e3424
💻 What existing Mac products will Apple update in 2024?
zilfmokhqxs
null
532.265992
YES
69dff29c9fff
cyukidahfff
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gjiumfrowwi", "label": "RanaG", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " you're asking what's wrong with ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "me", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "? 🤔 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
vK9bujGHVRqn4pMqGLaJ
public
contract
1,716,295,233,865
do-you-enjoy-gooning
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Do you enjoy gooning?
bm7kqd8ox3q
null
null
null
null
e0cadgvhu8
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gjiumfrowwi", "label": "RanaG", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I'm just making fun of what seems to be a particularly bizarre and obscene poll, surely there's nothing wrong with that, we both voted for the same choice", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
vK9bujGHVRqn4pMqGLaJ
public
contract
1,716,295,354,693
do-you-enjoy-gooning
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Do you enjoy gooning?
bm7kqd8ox3q
null
null
null
null
hd1flaa3jx
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "r5l0k9s0qnt", "label": "JoshuaWilkes", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Yeah seems alright :)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
qycP7JFr5c2bjf7h3HDX
public
contract
1,716,295,489,178
when-will-starship-land-on-a-launch
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
When will Starship land on a launch pad?
6yp4bohcwtx
null
30.628312
YES
4d79c9650ee7
spp0g2vvxg
false
IiYN8PiCPoaXt2a6wU9Vw74vrC52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Haaland won the golden boot. Not Halland. See my comment from four months ago. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
peter janicki
3soJzgUXFrZERyRSW0Ia
public
contract
1,716,295,489,837
will-halland-win-the-premier-league
peterjanicki
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp42imDrIxNJr2tVQ12GBLbiNAH9gWj8E8y8idhF=s96-c
Will halland win the premier league golden boot
null
1
213.285411
NO
null
s5ei5128rr
false
IiYN8PiCPoaXt2a6wU9Vw74vrC52
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Haaland won the golden boot, but not Halland. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
peter janicki
3soJzgUXFrZERyRSW0Ia
public
contract
1,716,295,529,731
will-halland-win-the-premier-league
peterjanicki
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp42imDrIxNJr2tVQ12GBLbiNAH9gWj8E8y8idhF=s96-c
Will halland win the premier league golden boot
null
1
213.285411
NO
null
4xdc70m0d9l
false
ojCb5qmjfxMGv13gBbFW6sum22v1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Billie Eilish can be resolved ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://youtu.be/CQxJLU2BIFw?si=uJ5oIMTxGApTPYTW", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://youtu.be/CQxJLU2BIFw?si=uJ5oIMTxGApTPYTW", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Abil Abraham
XAqynrPzqv54Y8xUNqQx
public
contract
1,716,296,105,023
which-artists-will-get-an-anthony-f
AbilAbraham2816
https://firebasestorage.…95f-f91ad5dc1346
🎧Which artists will get an Anthony Fantano (The Needle Drop) review on Youtube in 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
424.795399
YES
2c9fec648ea3
km2q0z2jq4q
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kazfzfj2pzb", "label": "jim", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " GPT-4.5 wins this round I think. Hopefully they release it publicly at some point. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
fykEZi2rlnefDLgto4Wc
public
contract
1,716,296,117,266
will-ranag-get-her-us-visa-approved
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
will @RanaG get her US visa approved before her travel date on May 30?
i4fqu7ph6v8
0.816332
1,099.485919
YES
null
x8ofpvlpsln
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "e0cadgvhu8", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " obscene 😂 ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jim
vK9bujGHVRqn4pMqGLaJ
public
contract
1,716,296,139,997
do-you-enjoy-gooning
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
Do you enjoy gooning?
bm7kqd8ox3q
null
null
null
null
fktuhepkzrq
false
UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0ci6kmx4u5i", "label": "nikki", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "no way do they submit with 50% of them being fake lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F-tOM0vzXQE.56?alt=media&token=f9232382-3f8a-4ef7-acef-40e9d9673ca7", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "image" } ], "type": "doc" }
Blomfilter
xmobVf0OKrQtev8ky8rE
public
contract
1,716,296,323,960
will-rfk-jr-make-the-ballot-in-texa
Blomfilter
https://firebasestorage.…45c-6f0fb44c4e70
Will RFK Jr. make the ballot in Texas for the 2024 Presidential election?
0ci6kmx4u5i
0.930943
2,418.886651
YES
null
egfhh6t7atb
false
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rtw6maqpmb", "label": "ShakedKoplewitz", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Based on Steam achievements I'm hopeful.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Panfilo
PglBs5rcGHkotQZL76ik
public
contract
1,716,296,381,243
will-panfilo-finish-baba-is-you-by
Panfilo
https://firebasestorage.…30c-2f62a625fa0b
Will @Panfilo finish Baba is You by the end of 2024?
rtw6maqpmb
0.22063
971.437892
YES
null
1jak8qzk33o
false
rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "u4mrfhhyrcb", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " I agree - the title doesn't match the description as it's currently written.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Simon Grayson
Ovdg7Im8LLYrEETn39g0
public
contract
1,716,296,632,000
someone-changes-reality-to-profit-o
SimonGrayson
https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696
Someone changes reality to profit on a manifold market before 2035 (see details)
u4mrfhhyrcb
null
null
null
null
vayubgobds
false
LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "u4mrfhhyrcb", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Changed! Thanks. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Harrison Lucas
Ovdg7Im8LLYrEETn39g0
public
contract
1,716,296,806,011
someone-changes-reality-to-profit-o
HarrisonLucas
https://firebasestorage.…d92-1497d2c1f57e
Will someone do something IRL to profit on Manifold that gets news/courts coverage by 2035?
u4mrfhhyrcb
0.533954
185.00068
YES
null
hrxnkoqh67l
false
LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2hravrph2lm", "label": "KongoLandwalker", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Come on, this stuff is all digital now. My examples make the intent clear 😘.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Harrison Lucas
Ovdg7Im8LLYrEETn39g0
public
contract
1,716,296,851,654
someone-changes-reality-to-profit-o
HarrisonLucas
https://firebasestorage.…d92-1497d2c1f57e
Will someone do something IRL to profit on Manifold that gets news/courts coverage by 2035?
2hravrph2lm
0.533954
185.00068
YES
null
elojhn80h5
false
PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Fascinating how rock solid polling has been in the three months since I sent this market live. As of today, Politico has LAB 44 and CON 23 for a 21% polling gap. Totally unchanged.", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I still think that when an election is called we'll see some narrowing, but beginning to wonder whether it'll be enough to trigger the \"significant narrowing\" gap in the face of such stability.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Noit
8By4snlIvA4iaem9zfs8
public
contract
1,716,296,989,503
will-the-polling-gap-between-labour
Noit
https://firebasestorage.…735-191267a06d3d
Will the polling gap between Labour and Conservative parties change before the 2024 UK General Election?
null
null
null
null
null
urcj3bkpqg
false
cBocHVf1R4ReHJmc4Lr8VutdZrG3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "alas, rejected from all mentors - resolving NO", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Will
jxNRbMxtZZLI97GzMdLL
public
contract
1,716,297,062,456
will-i-be-awarded-a-place-on-the-ma
willnotgrant
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fwillnotgrant%2F_Xjifi3Fsd.112?alt=media&token=440389b1-9a52-414a-8dfc-d6b4e5a10a55
Will I be awarded a place on the MATS program this summer?
null
null
null
null
null
lmckv895tj9
false
eQQeooSsorUHKDqat961ve9oW3E3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Jimmy can do it! Not enough positive encouragement in the news cycle for this amazing milestone ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "http://www.centuryofcarter.com", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "www.centuryofcarter.com", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " helps build up some great vibes to celebrate him!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Stephen Ander
1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM
public
contract
1,716,297,355,061
will-jimmy-carter-become-a-centenar
StephenAnder
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIRpk0cmYEJ7FmNdiT11G6Uv6ypfWzrlDU2ZkQM0RgULvRlZY=s96-c
Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?
null
null
null
null
null
6t3q5wbgys2
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The police investigation has concluded and says it was a suicide - this should resolve no ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "DMo72zWmV7gkKHBlggeTEIsCgvt1", "label": "lumi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/boeing-whistleblower-john-barnett-suicide-police-investigation/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/boeing-whistleblower-john-barnett-suicide-police-investigation/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
KDFbfezroaU5mUMUibcz
public
contract
1,716,297,373,924
will-police-or-courts-determine-tha
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will police or courts determine that foul play was involved in the death of Boeing whistleblower John Barnett?
null
0.108706
2,656.366436
NO
null
kz2poe4xlm
false
yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ay2iitypa14", "label": "ML12d1", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " That might be a good idea. The problem is that I can't tell how much I am getting back from making the markets, so I don't know if I am recouping most of my losses from making the markets. Perhaps I should ask about this on the Discord. Until I find out more or run out of mana, I will continue to make the markets myself.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
EBurk
cBYlDCWtUzsnZ5vue2SH
public
contract
1,716,297,433,707
what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-we-137a2059b5be
EBurk
https://firebasestorage.…0e3-2fdb94d99bad
What will be true of the xkcd on Wednesday, May 22nd, 2024?
ay2iitypa14
null
null
null
null
fgzugm9qlst
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "someone died due to turbulence today on a 777", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/singapore-airlines-passenger-dead-boeing-jet-hits-severe-turbulence-report", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/singapore-airlines-passenger-dead-boeing-jet-hits-severe-turbulence-report", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
9XDdPaWKzw943rUoDkig
public
contract
1,716,297,490,433
number-of-major-incidents-involving
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Number of major incidents involving Boeing planes until end of 2025
null
null
null
null
null
yyp1gue7j8
false
4I6gAV0ghQe7xyhrWItpCejXtKR2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "48cj66idygs", "label": "CalebW", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Its a lot of work with escrow, but I'd also be open. If only this market let us do that would be even better", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
redacted_peasant
y9tQ5nOahDIlW3WW9bHr
public
contract
1,716,297,544,055
if-the-tiktok-ban-bill-passes-will
redacted
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKpmpRxJwSQmLYswlDnF_vcdupOzbINNjm1FL3ir9dX=s96-c
If the TikTok "ban" bill passes, will its enforcement be blocked by courts?
e9jm8n9smzo
0.585721
7,891.298822
YES
null
xqb9jp6fs2c
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3eoh8es93pu", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " If the liquidity is taken before thte market resolves, you don’t get it all back", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
public
contract
1,716,297,568,005
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
k3vy71diqe
0.605225
331.626449
YES
null
cb0dsi2pwp
false
HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will probably end up resolving earlier so our money isn't locked up for very long, since you can't get a loan anymore.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Niel S
bqahXkqJEdus1FJ7Yzia
public
contract
1,716,297,644,989
manifold-lottery-tickets-50x-return
NielS
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c
Manifold lottery tickets 50x return possible
null
0.033624
32,900.139569
NO
null
vrya3noxwen
false
HlKGLfVeclY6K6zmR6N5rICa3cB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will probably end up resolving earlier so our money isn't locked up for very long, since you can't get a loan anymore.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Niel S
l67hFMTePYyGpbCQBnwa
public
contract
1,716,297,653,582
manifold-lottery-tickets-10x-return
NielS
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI1f_-sQy0dE4yU_6hAgPvUVI-PGSnuCHMzFZT5AlSj=s96-c
Manifold lottery tickets 10x return possible
null
0.1
7,105.491837
NO
null
959a75itflj
false
izv3XKQKYqTpkKTEofW8wrCs04b2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Good day! Personally, while I appreciate the philosophy behind free software, I've often found myself in need of more tailored solutions that adapt seamlessly to specific business needs. That’s where my experience with ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://sloboda-studio.com/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "Sloboda", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " comes into play. They are a software development company that has been instrumental in creating custom software solutions that fit perfectly with the specific requirements of each project. For those in the community who might be wrestling with the limitations of off-the-shelf free or open-source options and need something more bespoke, I would recommend looking into what it can offer. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
lanarey23
QkO8JbPuH2f10dlROUDW
public
contract
1,716,297,916,359
open-source-or-free-software
lanarey23
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK1t-ThfrpGDIgjB661rJSYC5YtEkGT3lBqwYIUuQr9RvmDIQ=s96-c
"Open Source" or "Free Software"?
null
null
null
null
null
lslp3a4tuuf
false
Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If anyone is left to remember it 😂", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Enlil
XxCnVfPyTwrxagvXIUi6
public
contract
1,716,298,188,553
will-may-2024-be-remembered-as-the
Enlil
https://firebasestorage.…679-a63c7b518da2
Will May 2024 be remembered as the month 'AI safety died' as per Tyler Cowen?
null
null
null
null
null
dsbin4aqshd
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "e0cadgvhu8", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " why is it obscene? Gooning is the supreme dopamine source of all other sources (food is bad, normal sex is too dull, excercising requires more effort) ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rana G
vK9bujGHVRqn4pMqGLaJ
public
contract
1,716,298,266,783
do-you-enjoy-gooning
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
Do you enjoy gooning?
bm7kqd8ox3q
null
null
null
null
hu9i1e7k275
false
HWKtbHfQPBSXvw8LICx3atroQGr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Bb653OHJg3tCrvMSdeRv", "label": "StevenK", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " that site is not an AI Safety FAQ it's a collection of EA talking points, that cite only sources related to EA or people who use EA as a tool, it's an ideological ouroboros.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MADGAMBLER6969
4VZ4JdGvtk2JxQI2v7dN
public
contract
1,716,298,625,819
if-i-write-an-encyclopedia-of-bad-a
MADGAMBLER6969
https://firebasestorage.…cfc-fa3f31fbb877
If I write an encyclopedia of bad AI arguments, will people seem to find it useful?
IlJmrd95uniUPeo5Mt7y
null
null
null
null
cdx5u7yhj77
false
tWloisfmJPhdrQV02eDglLmCryL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "while idk what ya'll think is a win, but the Gorosei are trying to buster call the island and take the mother flame (or whatever the infinite energy source is called), and the straw hats are troing to escape with Vegapunk. so i'd say that as long as all of the straw hats escape and they have one of the Vegapunks, the straw hats win. to be honest, id even say that the Gorosei already lost because they started the buster call to stop Vegapunk froom releasing the info on the void century, and the Gorosei did not achive stopping the Vegapunks.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tiger 4Tame
rMNNdUHmXBdwRS0QqP9N
public
contract
1,716,298,630,312
will-the-straw-hats-lose-in-the-egg
Tiger4Tame
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxan9RXEzJFsTCzBZZN06ulSTXQKRQA323CoW77T=s96-c
Will the straw hats lose in the egghead arc like Kid and Law?
81854g134px
null
null
null
null
n8rkda1enqd
false
GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I wish there was a way to never see \"stock\" markets. BTE made all of these annoying markets \"X stock\" which are basically popularity contests and never close. I want to remove them from my feed.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Nathan Wei
HoDBWOiNZ6iulWTJDmGO
public
contract
1,716,298,631,354
how-can-manifold-improve
nathanwei
https://firebasestorage.…47c-77836969b89a
How can Manifold improve?
null
null
null
null
null
ox57cw61o6c
false
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "oUgPddypDwU63f9ou9hyV74NqD33", "label": "justifieduseofFallibilism", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " do you see Trump conceding?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
JAAM
oLqBUaE3c0UOQSqG8OA1
public
contract
1,716,298,721,286
if-the-winner-of-the-2024-president
egroj
https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686
If the winner of the 2024 Presidential election is a Democrat, the Republican candidate will refuse to concede defeat
null
null
null
null
null
ruptgplzg3d
false
NuHwhn6zEFaGrZakbtiqPqMB0cJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If out of 20 trial games, GPT-5 does not make unforced mistakes where it brings the total in instant win range for me in 90% or more of them, this market resolves YES. ", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "blockquote" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There's some quite crucial ambiguity in this sentence. Does it have to succeed in >=90% or >10% of the games?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
sbares
KWhgchhNeo79Mhfwejrq
public
contract
1,716,298,747,256
will-gpt5-be-at-least-a-tiny-bit-st
sbares
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxzkvyIz-LOJPQwSdbXHkM-F-In2wj3gxsEipRrEw=s96-c
Will GPT-5 be at least a tiny bit strategic at the "Numbers Game"?
null
null
null
null
null
6azgn2fy7l
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "iaxa48exx2t", "label": "tbird", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Are you saying AI is somehow becoming safer?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
i95HLfK9N6hu5H7orfNj
public
contract
1,716,298,819,301
will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
5bjn7hwy2mb
0.150988
125.110148
YES
null
flnhv87l29h
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "+1 for this I still really want a way to opt out of all stonks as suggested markets, without blocking entire topics.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
HoDBWOiNZ6iulWTJDmGO
public
contract
1,716,299,000,880
how-can-manifold-improve
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
How can Manifold improve?
n8rkda1enqd
null
null
null
null
h8hsoy4e2n
false
EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "flnhv87l29h", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " why not block entire topics? There's an \"all-stonks\" topic or something, isn't that exactly what you'd want to block?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://manifold.markets/browse/all-stonks", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://manifold.markets/browse/all-stonks", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Chris Billington
HoDBWOiNZ6iulWTJDmGO
public
contract
1,716,299,476,164
how-can-manifold-improve
chrisjbillington
https://firebasestorage.…3fe-df29764eebe6
How can Manifold improve?
n8rkda1enqd
null
null
null
null
hejd450qduo
false
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "label": "Eliza", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolves NO, under 120K will be raced today", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
JAAM
UrrbK5xWw7MH8oJ5WMTy
public
contract
1,716,299,579,217
will-stage-16-of-the-2024-giro-dita
egroj
https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686
Will Stage 16 of the 2024 Giro d'Italia be ridden in full?
null
0.168154
5,290.433301
NO
null
zeb25g8ezdp
false
BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hilarious to say this on the day the AI safety summit begins in Seoul (and without even mentioning it)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Semiotic Rivalry
XxCnVfPyTwrxagvXIUi6
public
contract
1,716,300,163,786
will-may-2024-be-remembered-as-the
SemioticRivalry
https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf
Will May 2024 be remembered as the month 'AI safety died' as per Tyler Cowen?
null
null
null
null
null
oat4agwjzg
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xqb9jp6fs2c", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " ok now I'm even more confused", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I was under the impression that the starting liquidity from the market creation cost acts like a pair of yes and no bets that pay out to nobody but can be won by opposing betters, so that the first actual bet doesn't instantly swing the odds to 0% or 100%", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I therefore thought that the way to take the most liquidity back possible would thus be to hold >99% of the shares (including those contained in the starting liquidity) for the option that it ends up resolving to, with you in that case getting >99% of the opposing half of the starting liquidity plus the opposing bets from other users", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is this not the case? How can one take the liquidity ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "before", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " resolution?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
public
contract
1,716,300,209,793
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
k3vy71diqe
0.605225
15.547562
YES
null
ou6mpu6mmtp
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "h8hsoy4e2n", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " that does read like a topic that ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": null, "type": "italic" } ], "text": "all", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " stonks would be tagged with, but in my experience they're not? ( ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2", "label": "nathanwei", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " have you tried blocking this topic tag to see if it improves your home feed?)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't want to block other topics just because there are stocks associated. I'm not much of a topic blocker, tbf - I did block the ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "http://manifold.love", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "manifold.love", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " topic but not much else?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "thankfully Ian tweaked the algo at some point because I was getting easily ~75% stonks in my home feed after the recent broad algo changes, so now I see them infrequently there. so it's not a glaring issue on my profile now, personally. still would be nice to opt out of the market type somehow as this comes up regularly. ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
HoDBWOiNZ6iulWTJDmGO
public
contract
1,716,300,247,602
how-can-manifold-improve
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
How can Manifold improve?
n8rkda1enqd
null
null
null
null
g9jlpnyohbc
false
n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It is such an honor to be one of the first ever markets to pay out Prize Points! Thank you everyone for participating and I wish you all the best of luck on your UEFA EURO 2024 tournament predictions, you just know it’s going to be a Summer of bangers. ⚽️ 💪", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/UniversalFC/will-england-win-the-uefa-euro-2024", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
Universal FC ⚽
oT4h9KwapfRFBdRccnBx
public
contract
1,716,300,328,381
will-manchester-city-win-the-202324
UniversalFC
https://firebasestorage.…336-9360eb780ce1
Will Manchester City win the 2023/24 Premier League?
null
1
2,047.701654
NO
null
jalk1jrrebn
false
i5UuwOfsvzbYOGeKiAVJ2IKUzam1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think he can go to Sber. He is from Russia and Sber trying to fight with other companies over the world. It will be the most perfect solution", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Даниил Бобров
K9AQTvf2rSWM99NidwA5
public
contract
1,716,300,359,863
where-will-ilya-sutskever-work-next
5c26
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLP2UvBkM6mQ7REoYmHnaVEpfSmxA9n4qQw6DAVZKyEra16Eg=s96-c
Where will Ilya Sutskever work next after OpenAI, before 2025?
null
null
74.00897
YES
1f307ac8cd57
r5bi0io6tgj
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dsbin4aqshd", "label": "RanaG", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " A few questions:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why is food bad? Many foods are healthy and tasty 😋 ", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Why is sex duller than gooning? (I wouldn't know lol)", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If dopamine is all that matters, aren't opioids technically an even stronger source?", "type": "text" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" } ], "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "listItem" } ], "type": "bulletList" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Also note that obscene doesn't equal bad, in many cases it's funny, even though it can also risk detracting from the reputation of the site e.g. most of the entries in this market", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/TheAllMemeingEye/add-options-what-will-be-voted-the", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
vK9bujGHVRqn4pMqGLaJ
public
contract
1,716,300,582,618
do-you-enjoy-gooning
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Do you enjoy gooning?
bm7kqd8ox3q
null
null
null
null
1orpzmgeevw
false
jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Here's an article discussing Johansson's last prominent lawsuit. It briefly describes Periwinkle Entertainment, her \"loan out\" company, which is an example of the kind of plaintiff described in the question text. (In other words, if Periwinkle Entertainment sued OpenAI on Johansson's behalf, the question would resolve YES.) ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "hardBreak" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.indiewire.com/features/general/disney-scarlett-johansson-gamesmanship-black-widow-lawsuit-1234659360/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.indiewire.com/features/general/disney-scarlett-johansson-gamesmanship-black-widow-lawsuit-1234659360/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Hyperlincoln
UpfNoFH6Q6sU3HAZ2SzR
public
contract
1,716,300,975,226
will-scarlett-johansson-sue-openai
Hyperlincoln
https://firebasestorage.…f8f-d22d2ae6d687
Will Scarlett Johansson sue OpenAI and/or Sam Altman personally in 2024?
null
0.688843
180.374376
YES
null
jpo0mroq4f
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm switching sides now after this: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "href": "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesofisrael.com/israel-moves-to-more-limited-rafah-assault-plan-to-which-us-will-not-object-report/amp/", "target": "_blank" }, "type": "link" } ], "text": "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesofisrael.com/israel-moves-to-more-limited-rafah-assault-plan-to-which-us-will-not-object-report/amp/", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg
public
contract
1,716,301,175,541
what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal, Rafah Ground Invasion, or June 1st?
null
null
803.737312
YES
da786cd38018
7nf6etdv4s7
false
lUGDbuJVTpPyYsXTYXpd4139sE43
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Shouldn't this be arbitraged with 2030?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "language": null, "level": null, "src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/O/will-there-be-a-country-with-univer", "start": null, "title": null, "tweetId": null, "url": null }, "content": null, "type": "iframe" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ender Ting
ILlmh8BTNu96IhIj9Gvg
public
contract
1,716,301,289,275
will-there-be-at-least-one-country
AnT
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcWkbPJnNa7oUkYFwveuKh1CoCbDrksUco-QNBP=s96-c
Will there be at least one country where a guaranteed basic universal income will be implemented by the end of 2028?
null
null
null
null
null
s95su2ijcc
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "TKthYjIQwxzUJUFY8Mxp", "label": "Mira", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Given that you proved you could be top trader, why did you choose to have -155k profit?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
QEgi8IWWwwsQWED3wgcK
public
contract
1,716,301,322,610
are-you-addicted-to-manifold
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Are you addicted to Manifold?
TKthYjIQwxzUJUFY8Mxp
null
null
null
null
694ejyhv1yf
false
BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "znlbvv3m1kj", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " We considered it, and then we continued to do it anyway.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Semiotic Rivalry
TlAwFxpxKC9rP2hZkCtf
public
contract
1,716,301,343,145
who-will-win-the-georgia-state-supr
SemioticRivalry
https://firebasestorage.…b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf
Who will win the Georgia State Supreme Court election?
znlbvv3m1kj
null
1,349.699858
YES
d2631b7f9996
bbn2ma43jb
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "oat4agwjzg", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " It changed. Basically now the owner acts as AMM shares owner. So if the AMM makes a profit, owner makes money. If the AMM loses, owner loses, and if AMM is even, owner is even, which comes down to getting the 1000M back", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If you start a market at 50%, and it goes to 99% and resolves yes, the AMM bought lots of no and lost on trades until it was 1000M in the red, so its shares are worth like 10M instead of the origiinal 1000M, so you dont get almost anything back when you resolve, bc the AMM wasnt profitable", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "But if the AMM is almost always even, as is the case when the market resolves at 50% like in a coinflip market, then you pretty much get your money back everytime", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
l08kRHjahhr7hr0LzZr6
public
contract
1,716,301,350,093
share-market-ideas-here-will-20-ide
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…a41-dbd2866cd47c
Share market ideas here! Will 20 ideas turn into markets? (experimental)
k3vy71diqe
0.605225
331.626449
YES
null
yzvzrk7kgs
false
VFzSD3qUntb9Pu0giXBvjkmkqsh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Would like to see an outcome option where the jury hang or find the misdemeanour charges of falsifying records, but fail to find guilt on the step up charges of “in furtherance of another crime” that elevate it to felony. Not sure if that is an option for jury though ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pjfkh
Bzd2WtlFSBJHHMpPxGnY
public
contract
1,716,301,574,462
how-will-the-donald-trumps-stormy-d
Pjfkh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI8G8CptLN8rZpkc1wuPjxiTtiehCNWr6XuloMSvvz6=s96-c
How will Donald Trump's Stormy Daniels/Hush Money felony trial end?
null
null
13.569663
YES
ec2b97d8638a
9ud9haff087
false
VFzSD3qUntb9Pu0giXBvjkmkqsh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is there any legal route for the charges to reduce to misdemeanour (ie without the step up conditions being found to have been met)?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Pjfkh
9dFfrnRBR5jhyvSRRjZe
public
contract
1,716,301,669,086
how-will-the-34-felony-counts-of-do
Pjfkh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI8G8CptLN8rZpkc1wuPjxiTtiehCNWr6XuloMSvvz6=s96-c
How will the 34 felony counts of Donald Trump's Stormy Daniels/Hush Money felony trial proportionately resolve?
null
null
null
null
null
c08p1xc7u2n
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "For PR reasons, they're going to keep just enough ambiguity that their attacks won't be reported unequivocally as a major invasion, at least until well after June 1st.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Timothy Johnson
RLGJEKkJGRwmvGDdpArg
public
contract
1,716,301,755,615
what-will-happen-first-a-ceasefire
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal, Rafah Ground Invasion, or June 1st?
jpo0mroq4f
null
803.737312
YES
da786cd38018
dylbqdonly9
false
rK2EcetgPQYOME12Qt1xJDobuBD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ngsh2ii4c6", "label": "RemNi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Classic meme", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
soweli Son
4iDxt5SOffBcwFzB7x9C
public
contract
1,716,301,851,173
metaculus-before-july-1-2024-will-t
soweliSon
https://firebasestorage.…24c-0df4c1b1f734
[Metaculus] Before July, will the ICC issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant or Halevi?
ngsh2ii4c6
0.47
48.29366
YES
null