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qrcvgdrbdya
false
6QlP88QnoqcYeePMrbTojs42JOM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "e5w25ygn7w", "label": "benshindel", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Fergus Argyll
ZkAmLNiUN4NKVz4LcHkg
public
contract
1,717,447,014,600
who-will-win-the-2024-chess-world-c
FergusArgyll
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaN9-RDIt18AYUbA3im5d3HcSLt8JI2MZ81Ep8t_HY=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 Chess World Championship?
xmykbspubb
null
485.400927
YES
396ba569eef6
3wlokb8utjh
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "o9jocjlklnk", "label": "JamesBaker3", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Timothy Johnson
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,447,073,355
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
o9jocjlklnk
null
467.803442
NO
i2t0a0mrgz
aw7bw23bis
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will spice be convertible to cash at Manifest? Market: ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "att...
Ziddletwix
zBsRZkjWx2ejUb4MId6X
public
contract
1,717,447,143,563
what-will-be-true-about-spice-the-n
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
🧂What will be true about Spice, the new Manifold currency? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
1,287.971507
YES
833f4eb76ac1
7oe6fhzgqno
false
6zyJD9kOtvcc6XR91cTDpxvvHCB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Vermin Supreme", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jes Wolfe
w1FLeke619n7j38hAq94
public
contract
1,717,447,168,523
do-you-support-trump-or-biden
JesWolfe
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcKjht6P3AYXOa2d0KfFkhQ_Fa_Nya7nn9oWrRw1Noi0Fky=s96-c
Do you support Trump or Biden?
null
null
null
null
null
db6r4w74nzm
false
6QlP88QnoqcYeePMrbTojs42JOM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "No, that would be falsifiable and we can't have that...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "d...
Fergus Argyll
jkMyrYquUzwNseNmRCCk
public
contract
1,717,447,412,248
will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor
FergusArgyll
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaN9-RDIt18AYUbA3im5d3HcSLt8JI2MZ81Ep8t_HY=s96-c
Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 50% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?
null
0.262599
66.109216
NO
null
8jnfvbf7bv2
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "0-0", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null...
Christopher Randles
hr3A7CX07DiEGXcdd5Ra
public
contract
1,717,447,493,072
what-will-happen-this-week-03060906
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
What will happen this Week? (03.06-09.06.2024) [You can add answers]
null
null
2,625.527129
NO
vv7rt72grb
i6qsmby7dvj
false
mqx5cKiTKNY6m3VsR6Eiy2y4dGJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "waga2ml57m", "label": "chaos", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Brendan Troadec
Y2aDWPKmCVLD4aaOwy3Y
public
contract
1,717,447,584,618
the-most-popular-wikipedia-article-81cd72a3d019
BrendanTroadec
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK4Dn8vdzoY2wtYBN7Xr8wrM3Axwoa4inUKshOUOPUBnrw=s96-c
The most popular Wikipedia article in May 2024? (no exclusions)
xakuh9hw
null
21.718501
YES
2b7102b5c548
g1foo74ocg
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bne0o2wld9a", "label": "SaviorofPlant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
singer
iIfLvPHgRrCgSgc72i7i
public
contract
1,717,447,609,267
if-another-carrington-event-hit-the
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
If another Carrington Event hit the US, would most people be using electricity again in less than a week?
bne0o2wld9a
null
null
null
null
vcc9yjee44h
false
sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qrcvgdrbdya", "label": "FergusArgyll", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ben Shindel
ZkAmLNiUN4NKVz4LcHkg
public
contract
1,717,447,613,987
who-will-win-the-2024-chess-world-c
benshindel
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 Chess World Championship?
xmykbspubb
null
868.743603
YES
595a3eab7d34
91op7khzy6l
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Made the Visma version:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, ...
Eliza
Gb0LIFgDwalS80fJY9fd
public
contract
1,717,447,643,757
who-will-placed-highest-on-gc-from
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Who will placed highest on GC from INEOS Grenadiers at the 2024 Tour de France?
null
null
137.085139
YES
0d1083dae127
966idzlkwe
false
GB5hZnKVXCdbNXRJbJT1WFH6nQ02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'd look more closely at the demon abilities in regards to whether the demon can 'jump'.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "p...
bh
nxLnwQ34lNX8eER68HBg
public
contract
1,717,447,651,898
who-is-the-demon
hamiltonianurst
https://firebasestorage.…2a9-1301b1e3dc4a
Who is the demon?!?! 🙈🙈🙈🙊😈🙊🙈🙈🙈
null
null
null
null
null
nfil2o9v8b
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Eganito forever.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Eliza
Gb0LIFgDwalS80fJY9fd
public
contract
1,717,447,684,014
who-will-placed-highest-on-gc-from
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Who will placed highest on GC from INEOS Grenadiers at the 2024 Tour de France?
null
null
252.31855
YES
0d1083dae127
jujyu2wbrka
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Ziddletwix
cLr0gK11TC0nGDB6eecV
public
contract
1,717,447,869,296
which-five-athletes-will-be-named-t
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which five athletes will be named to the US Olympic 2024 women's gymnastics team?
null
null
926.399512
YES
27bznxvjcr
gkz0lq4b3f
false
lQNtuosKRXcTAuiUv324XX5e0zs1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "m4gxcqkehqc", "label": "Riley12", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Austin Platt
Iv8fcNBVqPpWtYYkOB1A
public
contract
1,717,447,874,015
how-many-seats-will-the-labour-part-83e146bac5d4
AustinPlatt
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6uBUbeQwTXx7_TucB1d9jl66tPnKFcDYI2lHbe=s96-c
UK General Election: How many seats will the Labour Party win?
xqrz8sggbad
null
null
null
null
nc9845tte2o
false
hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Anyone have any documented crashes so far in May or June for Roglic?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ],...
Eliza
z54cMFuk7OW0CBgHKpaJ
public
contract
1,717,448,063,460
will-primoz-roglic-finish-the-2024
Eliza
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c
Will Primoz Roglic finish the 2024 Tour de France without crashing (during the race or prep)?
null
0.435481
39.574155
YES
null
flupi1pa30g
false
7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "may? do you mean june or should we predict what the prices will be in 2025 (either way odds are above 50% i think)", "type": "text" }...
Interrobang
43PSklecIF9dCRIWixba
public
contract
1,717,448,242,765
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-a90a7j7kry
Interrobang
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaoSVG-ubMKwZ3V3nCKNL-deCRpMdJpvx6fA4y_csw6mvskHA=s96-c
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on May 4 than it closed on May 3?
null
0.5
185.00068
YES
null
q3rjtqp96h
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Russia is the reigning champ in the team event, but they aren't competing this year, raising the pressure on the US team to reclaim the crown. This mar...
Ziddletwix
cLr0gK11TC0nGDB6eecV
public
contract
1,717,448,328,545
which-five-athletes-will-be-named-t
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which five athletes will be named to the US Olympic 2024 women's gymnastics team?
jujyu2wbrka
null
926.399512
YES
27bznxvjcr
8x4326vttfv
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm assuming this is not related to the simulation hypothesis.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "ty...
singer
slYkBKCtJonn3LjOVSVr
public
contract
1,717,448,381,468
the-solution-to-fermi-paradoxs-grea
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
The solution to Fermi Paradox's great filter question is that the greater solar system is all inside a petri dish
null
0.25192
65.244356
NO
null
6z1movzpgvn
false
krCVG3NICjMBTShuh2qFBfxjJh53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lhh4tpmg3d", "label": "Noit", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Tom Offer
nOiUjcHna4nrqgLmwhdz
public
contract
1,717,448,521,896
will-the-conservatives-tories-win-m-53eabaecdbdf
Tomoffer
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYixst_qSqIc7yL9LzODpTkqwwZD_6YEFduz-Up=s96-c
Will the Conservatives / Tories win more than 160 seats at the next UK general election?
lhh4tpmg3d
0.153838
6,998.046092
YES
null
ljgdyde9mek
false
dauqpzeyV3YzOOiI56ljlYc55Op2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8x4326vttfv", "label": "singer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Mikko Kiiskila
slYkBKCtJonn3LjOVSVr
public
contract
1,717,448,551,619
the-solution-to-fermi-paradoxs-grea
MikkoKiiskila
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJY6qHeR5pIze2FAatEnDm8vApMZhjH07o8ZoKo-3d7=s96-c
The solution to Fermi Paradox's great filter question is that the greater solar system is all inside a petri dish
8x4326vttfv
null
null
null
null
d46bssuyetv
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ljgdyde9mek", "label": "MikkoKiiskila", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
singer
slYkBKCtJonn3LjOVSVr
public
contract
1,717,448,764,184
the-solution-to-fermi-paradoxs-grea
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
The solution to Fermi Paradox's great filter question is that the greater solar system is all inside a petri dish
8x4326vttfv
0.241469
65.244356
NO
null
2hk9s021pgp
false
dauqpzeyV3YzOOiI56ljlYc55Op2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "d46bssuyetv", "label": "singer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Mikko Kiiskila
slYkBKCtJonn3LjOVSVr
public
contract
1,717,449,188,170
the-solution-to-fermi-paradoxs-grea
MikkoKiiskila
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJY6qHeR5pIze2FAatEnDm8vApMZhjH07o8ZoKo-3d7=s96-c
The solution to Fermi Paradox's great filter question is that the greater solar system is all inside a petri dish
8x4326vttfv
null
null
null
null
cvzscbtnnys
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2hk9s021pgp", "label": "MikkoKiiskila", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
singer
slYkBKCtJonn3LjOVSVr
public
contract
1,717,449,571,756
the-solution-to-fermi-paradoxs-grea
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
The solution to Fermi Paradox's great filter question is that the greater solar system is all inside a petri dish
8x4326vttfv
0.197052
65.244356
NO
null
s8jk41a4un
false
gml98vCzznd8lqcY9SONnHfVI5k2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Summer McIntosh can win 7 medals ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
KldTouchr87
9udYwyP01cB03TEbgeaP
public
contract
1,717,449,800,464
which-individual-will-win-the-most-2ddb364e93e7
Kldtouchr87
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLCTfkLHw0WFomqqwcUrjn6dF4vcpyd4aY3UVudrsOW6k-_H3E=s96-c
Which athlete will win the most overall medals (gold, silver and bronze) at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics?
null
null
254.987806
YES
fdf11011cb97
93kn2x0ux8n
false
5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "pc5yjee465", "label": "josh", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
ismellpillows
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,449,805,616
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
ismellpillows
https://firebasestorage.…d2d-d6578fd4939a
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
pc5yjee465
null
793.19085
NO
tjw0xqh8wj
7qv5jw5kag6
false
VFzSD3qUntb9Pu0giXBvjkmkqsh2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Pjfkh
0eyHWQbaW9qLWJzy9761
public
contract
1,717,450,259,912
will-any-of-the-other-donald-trump
Pjfkh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI8G8CptLN8rZpkc1wuPjxiTtiehCNWr6XuloMSvvz6=s96-c
Will any of the other Donald Trump criminal trials (Jury Selection) start before the November Presidential election?
null
0.447424
95.98148
NO
null
pbm7jeo15bg
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The first person perspective (\"consiousness\") doesn't seem necessary for anything except for anthropic selection effects.", "type": "text" ...
singer
DlN3faAPQtF4jxCEccmG
public
contract
1,717,450,357,014
is-the-followings-statement-more-tr
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
Is the followings statement more true or false: evolution led to consciousness being utilised for survival
null
null
null
null
null
ijqd0wmzz7
false
wafjm1hIwwRSzKmZd8s9MAH2qF32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "label": "ovals", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Aditya Gupta
ZAp0KVR34vvLHyYZXnzM
public
contract
1,717,450,362,633
to-which-is-the-last-round-that-tay
AdityaGupta4830
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbP2SEivBqEg1hTuRbZsvsjl3_Cp6D6eqx-U_XnxfQ=s96-c
To which is the last round that Taylor Fritz will advance in the 2024 FRENCH OPEN tournament? 🎾
null
null
1,728.019222
NO
78a7bb0fc0f3
kycs7lif8x
false
qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thanks for doing the research ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", ...
Agh
7cLbLgQFzsYJpAa8eqFw
public
contract
1,717,450,457,302
rottentomatoes-2k24-critics-yes-vs
Agh
https://firebasestorage.…96a-92c3aadf6a66
RottenTomatoes 2k24: Critics [YES] vs. Fans [NO] 🍿🍅⚔️
nqinhshvqwr
null
null
null
null
dqcc943scph
false
NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "93kn2x0ux8n", "label": "ismellpillows", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Josh
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,450,690,338
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
josh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx0QJyn3_RlfR7N92j1FntqMP_80imf6p_zLKws=s96-c
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
pc5yjee465
null
400
YES
i2t0a0mrgz
kaluvxi16c
false
D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I have no opinion on this. But I wonder if ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "XeQf3ygmrGM1MxdsE3J...
singer
Z3tRbYPcVd8B7liPqckJ
public
contract
1,717,450,839,116
artificial-consciousness-will-emerg
singer
https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae
Artificial consciousness will emerge in the course of increasing AI capabilities
null
null
null
null
null
fooi36wkkp
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Mqrius
2UzgopRizl6MxAZTObMW
public
contract
1,717,450,921,713
when-will-there-be-a-4th-starship-l-e57470f27683
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
When will there be a 4th Starship launch?
null
null
2,120.383734
NO
94852094d21b
nhywb0yk0we
false
j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "An additional clarification:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content":...
Jim Hays
EgYGAGM9NV9tbk6fAU35
public
contract
1,717,451,266,509
in-inside-out-2-will-riley-and-this
JimHays
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5OSur1iRh2XJCBqWybZBd64MFALBZbO6xjTAxCmAM=s96-c
In Inside Out 2, will Riley and this new character kiss?
null
0.370432
224.59596
NO
null
7sc0tujo25
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
fRXEgK3FINKUgbY4CxSI
public
contract
1,717,451,319,206
will-udeepfuckingvalue-aka-roaring
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will u/DeepFuckingValue (a.k.a. Roaring Kitty) post to Reddit a second time in June?
null
0.817463
7,851.018275
YES
null
8xmaradmhuw
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7sc0tujo25", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
fRXEgK3FINKUgbY4CxSI
public
contract
1,717,451,326,478
will-udeepfuckingvalue-aka-roaring
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will u/DeepFuckingValue (a.k.a. Roaring Kitty) post to Reddit a second time in June?
7sc0tujo25
0.817463
7,851.018275
YES
null
iidcoi7xhmf
false
xoo782zW9geixafwEaT7B9Ku3Bj1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ngrajpyjdd", "label": "ClubmasterTransparent", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
binarypigeon
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,451,360,225
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
binarypigeon
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FEmeryCooper%2FAaFnMfnhyI.25?alt=media&token=fe3d7470-8266-4a29-9701-3d9a7eb97c16
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
ngrajpyjdd
null
282.117771
NO
i2t0a0mrgz
06etayablawt
false
Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Devs have the opportunity to set an incredibly funny precedent by selling pizza for prize points.", "type": "text" } ], "...
JGY
pX5jbtvOL2CCWy0S6a2L
public
contract
1,717,451,413,067
what-will-be-true-about-using-prize
jgyou
https://firebasestorage.…907-90bdc2aca417
What will be true about using prize points at Manifest? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
null
null
null
dmvtwye1ip6
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "mSuyIAdIBe1CmId1BJrJ", "label": "/strutheo/will-destiny-talk-about-an-assassin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null,...
chris (strutheo)
o1gxxvnhLsPNswwDZuEO
public
contract
1,717,451,574,121
will-destiny-make-it-home-from-isra
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will Destiny make it home from Israel alive?
null
null
null
null
null
t6c3mkup4i
false
8K7OokTvKUWJ8OjAucDKG90Yi4H2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If someone submits an AI-generated Book Review to the Astral Codex Ten's Book Review Contest & it outperforms a Book Review Scott submits to his own co...
GooGhoul
li62GHFVFP0Dqmd1J4hT
public
contract
1,717,451,654,920
will-ai-convincingly-mimic-scott-al
GooGhoul
https://firebasestorage.…e8f-79dd2d8c953b
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
null
null
null
null
null
w2n360vw0y
false
tDznGF6diAQChjCwkidkFIsCTVe2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "When will this be resolved? ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
jatloe
xrjVzDAjU0mNXfkY1auW
public
contract
1,717,451,752,707
will-the-mop-2024-director-be-a-mop
jatloe
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJT1Drz0gmtW-QEia9EtqEQs8qwbfdh06OdEBi_Q8okCQ=s96-c
Will the MOP 2024 director be a MOP 2023 staff member?
null
0.873462
112.941349
YES
null
vp0ecndjke
false
rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Matt C. Wilson
Vez3ZzwAn1T5p6uBLvn5
public
contract
1,717,451,799,316
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-92
MattCWilson
https://firebasestorage.…c23-a3b854776865
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 92)
null
null
1,187.909672
YES
8169suohzl
ikfq5exu9wg
false
tDznGF6diAQChjCwkidkFIsCTVe2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jatloe
D2khTe2BqCeWS6ANLd9D
public
contract
1,717,451,886,584
will-a-2023-mopper-reach-masters-le
jatloe
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJT1Drz0gmtW-QEia9EtqEQs8qwbfdh06OdEBi_Q8okCQ=s96-c
Will a 2023 mopper reach masters league before 2024 mop?
null
0.126823
271.620346
NO
null
ore2g49zec
false
Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ylovihnvg6", "label": "SecondHandYT", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ihor Kendiukhov
vZxTfEoex4EAgj6fsWRr
public
contract
1,717,451,965,458
will-this-market-have-more-than-50
IhorKendiukhov
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c
Will this market have more than 50 traders by July 1, 2024?
ylovihnvg6
0.913075
19.234326
YES
null
peyhrphcp7j
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Base
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,717,452,017,900
how-many-hits-after-30-days
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
6,083.720146
YES
c0ae959fc0e3
rxszt4wxxjj
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,717,452,021,739
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
hms9zk0cuo
false
zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "324panuri7c", "label": "jim", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Mira
IeRD0KuHxZUTSgDCSnNE
public
contract
1,717,452,034,397
at-manifest-2024-will-jim-convince
Mira
https://firebasestorage.…959-42404b37a55f
At Manifest 2024 will @jim convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that an AI moratorium would be a bad idea?
324panuri7c
0.06
53.645907
YES
null
zx7g312pnfp
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,717,452,062,281
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
hgbgspkcds
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Base
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,717,452,066,641
how-many-hits-after-30-days
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
6,083.720146
YES
c0ae959fc0e3
bzybc03e1y7
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,717,452,073,259
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
ezw97gtk74i
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
4eIQB7HUHtIAFVKq5Zeq
public
contract
1,717,452,124,370
how-many-hits-after-30-days
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days?
null
null
null
null
null
8u9aylaowg
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "obviously \"i exchanged prize points for cash and then bought something with the cash\" does not resolve this year. i expect it will be obvious what it...
Ziddletwix
pX5jbtvOL2CCWy0S6a2L
public
contract
1,717,452,612,475
what-will-be-true-about-using-prize
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
What will be true about using prize points at Manifest? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
166.175636
NO
540yitb0lu
tcky88achb
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Second ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
Ziddletwix
M7rnQci8gT1zIPxqFdI0
public
contract
1,717,452,670,903
will-keith-gill-aka-roaring-kitty-b
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Keith Gill (a.k.a. Roaring Kitty) be kicked off the E*Trade platform by Juneteenth? (June 19th)
null
0.403496
356.179759
NO
null
40yb8o89cl
false
rK2EcetgPQYOME12Qt1xJDobuBD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
soweli Son
HHUPOp07U3sOYeIKDXLN
public
contract
1,717,453,287,640
which-of-the-following-media-outlet
soweliSon
https://firebasestorage.…24c-0df4c1b1f734
Which of the following media outlets will close *or* undergo significant downsizing/restructuring before 2028?
null
null
null
null
null
dn1nhgdbshu
false
8K7OokTvKUWJ8OjAucDKG90Yi4H2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wygxrqz0gm", "label": "SteeeveTheSteve", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
GooGhoul
Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv
public
contract
1,717,453,985,634
agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
GooGhoul
https://firebasestorage.…e8f-79dd2d8c953b
AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]
ndd044r2bdr
null
618.043146
YES
ed73a628dbcc
irdh9dx42n
false
TUvm26ov7fefFj7KYBSHuE49s2M2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ping the overall percentages here still add up to over 100%", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type"...
John Carpenter
pPSEBYjVZkP6ewkMacPj
public
contract
1,717,454,062,869
when-will-goog-stock-close-above-20
JohnCarpenter
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLbnMbgGdE9ZUUqzpL2THIy9BWVUALl8URxyyYemF9Ib6JghmvmNA=s96-c
When will GOOG stock close above $200 for the first time?
null
null
599.15926
NO
f5c45dec6dd3
dfmibqonxyi
false
gml98vCzznd8lqcY9SONnHfVI5k2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
KldTouchr87
6OOAzzbz19eDxEAbHPNW
public
contract
1,717,454,165,256
who-will-dive-jump-swim-in-the-sein
Kldtouchr87
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLCTfkLHw0WFomqqwcUrjn6dF4vcpyd4aY3UVudrsOW6k-_H3E=s96-c
Who will dive / jump / swim in the Seine before Paris Olympis 2024 ?
null
null
323.483064
NO
6b73eec7c58f
z8lzyyolqpl
false
PKFboemYWtVwfxypZUazxAXr4rG3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves YES: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
RiskOptimization
eVMxcgJ9IllqIcmEl2Ir
public
contract
1,717,454,396,990
will-sheinbaum-win-the-2024-mexican
RiskOptimization
https://firebasestorage.…10a-45d742b0b831
Will Sheinbaum win the 2024 Mexican presidential election?
null
0.989514
432.62091
YES
null
gqp70weq1nb
false
qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dn1nhgdbshu", "label": "GooGhoul", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
robm
Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv
public
contract
1,717,454,532,866
agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
robm
https://firebasestorage.…c2d-4d0e2a793adf
AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]
ndd044r2bdr
null
4,332.843147
YES
67ea62c46640
0qbycmelgmaj
false
fBM6jVmA0mVRdQAwkCmoX74l6nn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "$289m now - ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { ...
sama
IxDznuH9Dq9tnkwGVFtz
public
contract
1,717,454,647,822
will-udeepfuckingvalue-roaring-kitt
sama
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fidep%2FXujAyTo58a.043?alt=media&token=faacc09a-d6a1-4615-be1c-cc5c7880a36f
Will u/DeepFuckingValue (Roaring Kitty) post a screenshot of his account with over a billion dollars in 2024?
null
0.159181
2,261.087482
YES
null
mzc9fw7l1p
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Closed 25th so 24th closed at 5304.72 is close price on 25th", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "conten...
Christopher Randles
E5KXCuWevNyMYvCNTp8T
public
contract
1,717,454,665,687
will-the-sp-stock-index-close-highe-ea85264950fb
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will the S&P stock index close higher on May 31 than it closed on May 25?
null
0.039841
284.018067
NO
null
iwakdj9p2vf
false
ZxeJ69vdBeN4qoUJ1Sf9JZjPYgF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I feel like you could already argue that it's commonplace. Every website you go to has some AI feature now.", "type": "text" } ...
KiWiiU
f2JSGdRaANnT3vWq65Cg
public
contract
1,717,454,727,966
will-ai-be-broadly-considered-borin
KiWiiU
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJZvAtIf79h7TzS-fEoD5CT_JPUPi6MDOpjCGT11lh-UW0t1SJl=s96-c
Will AI be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
smspurnnkl
false
WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Split adjusted? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bruno Clawfeld
rJygIJzpMXTNq0brBZUQ
public
contract
1,717,455,068,354
will-nvidia-trade-above-1000-in-202
BrunoClawfeld
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3
Will Nvidia trade above $1000 in 2025?
null
0.38
22.379421
YES
null
ytpdy56djl
false
uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2hb8scs0rlb", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Shelvacu
PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj
public
contract
1,717,455,315,656
how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3
Shelvacu
https://firebasestorage.…a8d-63bc6f7bd3d2
How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline?
2hb8scs0rlb
null
null
null
null
hqr4gu6q5tf
false
v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "loamypiqa8o", "label": "MattCWilson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
komplexkonjugat
Vez3ZzwAn1T5p6uBLvn5
public
contract
1,717,455,387,122
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-92
komplexkonjugat
https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 92)
loamypiqa8o
null
null
null
null
lawvbtymqh
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "58dj8YESn3qfxMwTwfMr", "label": "/strutheo/what-will-happen-before-rsa-encrypt", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null,...
chris (strutheo)
itdFLnRot4VWPE6tFwiW
public
contract
1,717,455,572,881
will-1024bit-rsa-be-broken-by-a-qua-39fb327d509c
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will 1024-bit RSA be broken by a quantum computer by 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
z5cfx7ra4eb
false
uPG5kX3xDcZKkxJgJxs0I8kwem32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ytpdy56djl", "label": "Shelvacu", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Sparr Risher
PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj
public
contract
1,717,455,719,471
how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3
Sparr
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYeR4Bs81Xq46KnRYOYC9oNVXlo35Vs8oQLbFEn6EA=s96-c
How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline?
2hb8scs0rlb
null
40.959212
YES
ec0f22ccc70a
qvey9j4153m
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Savior of Plant
8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo
public
contract
1,717,455,852,182
what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
517.444115
YES
f78724365dda
2tacj1p1u9j
false
v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Next turn:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text...
komplexkonjugat
Vez3ZzwAn1T5p6uBLvn5
public
contract
1,717,455,996,592
lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-92
komplexkonjugat
https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0
[Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 92)
null
null
null
null
null
rkwzdde3lro
false
8K7OokTvKUWJ8OjAucDKG90Yi4H2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gqp70weq1nb", "label": "robm", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
GooGhoul
Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv
public
contract
1,717,456,037,090
agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
GooGhoul
https://firebasestorage.…e8f-79dd2d8c953b
AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]
ndd044r2bdr
null
618.043146
YES
ed73a628dbcc
bd3a6jiyygt
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm not sure how it's \"sex-negative\" not to include the market in the dashboard - or am I taking it more seriously/literally than you mean it? ", ...
stefanie
yNaODVFlMXRbuUCPn3RP
public
contract
1,717,456,098,086
will-manifold-reverse-its-sexnegati
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Will Manifold reverse its sex-negative decision and list my market before Manifest starts?
null
0.251131
274.158655
NO
null
9vgrcqly09i
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Here's a question: Are people voting based on whether they think prize points are good in isolation (e.g., \"Is it better to have prize points, given t...
Plasma Ballin'
vcmWtbZWrVRT0dXH0QAe
public
contract
1,717,456,406,523
are-prize-points-a-good-addition-to
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Are prize points a good addition to Manifold?
null
null
null
null
null
5kcc4rn3en3
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Very good use of a Plus market. It's certainly necessary to have more liquidity for bets on this important outcome.", "type": "text" ...
Plasma Ballin'
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,456,674,549
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
null
null
null
null
null
v3x3ig3v4pj
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Savior of Plant
kBS7PSzOTv9nIJSgmGSK
public
contract
1,717,456,697,189
will-any-ai-regulation-be-passed-be
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Will any AI regulation be passed between now and the start of the 119th Congress?
25yj6rvjgi2
0.617255
0
NO
null
9arkrfdmqwb
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I have a limit order at 2% so I can get my mana back before the election, if anyone is willing to fill it.", "type": "text" } ]...
Plasma Ballin'
j4h8jL02cgr4xvaqBdOW
public
contract
1,717,456,894,678
will-donald-trump-die-of-causes-nat
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Will Donald Trump die, of causes natural or not, before election day 2024?
null
0.098989
1,664.456473
NO
null
fw0vq2z3w2
false
h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Would a national government announcing that they've already bought some bitcoin count as a \"reveal\", or does it have to be \"exposed\" by some other ...
Benjamin Ikuta
aYwagmdud3OG5fJpUJYy
public
contract
1,717,457,010,478
will-a-national-government-be-revea
benjaminIkuta
https://firebasestorage.…42c-4fd343f08410
Will a government be revealed this year to have been buying Bitcoin without having had disclosed that fact publicly?
null
null
null
null
null
hj6754efzhj
false
cXfjElSKSFTJVYwY3xlxH5wQlF82
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Elf
rJygIJzpMXTNq0brBZUQ
public
contract
1,717,457,097,706
will-nvidia-trade-above-1000-in-202
elf
https://firebasestorage.…225-4e706826a59b
Will Nvidia trade above $1000 in 2025?
null
null
null
null
null
ge33hj907q4
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Can someone ping me when this happens?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rana G
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,457,125,264
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
null
null
null
null
null
d4ieasfgu6s
false
h8mrjj5GRDb363eGYxhaKR8hzAF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "We kissed a bunch and slept together (literally not figuratively). Third date planned for Saturday ", "type": "text" } ], ...
Benjamin Ikuta
ronmPgNLkIlxJB4tphwl
public
contract
1,717,457,203,675
will-i-get-a-girlfriend-by-the-end-0be9954bf53c
benjaminIkuta
https://firebasestorage.…42c-4fd343f08410
Will I get a girlfriend by the end of 2024?
ouyno8q5kx
null
null
null
null
0x7h77x6uiq8
false
Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What is this?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Andrew Smith
nxLnwQ34lNX8eER68HBg
public
contract
1,717,457,336,523
who-is-the-demon
asmith
https://firebasestorage.…a0f-d901653a5912
Who is the demon?!?! 🙈🙈🙈🙊😈🙊🙈🙈🙈
null
null
null
null
null
6589rndz2ud
false
xfvv2IHWADa6xJjECe73FFXU3CV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Theyre doing it. Ukraine is striking Crimea in mass, the beach head is being softened", "type": "text" } ], "type": "para...
EugeneBixby
qTW7ZeOLOuA7xKiKbs6y
public
contract
1,717,457,559,133
will-ukrainian-forces-attempt-to-re
EugeneBixby
https://firebasestorage.…a71-2fe7e17f7e21
Will Ukrainian forces attempt to retake Crimea in 2024?
null
0.042458
2,964.64701
YES
null
wf954hgi6bd
false
zghUFlG4NuZ9tCjV2zRBaBi4WS92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What's this?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Rana G
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,457,625,706
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
RanaG
https://firebasestorage.…467-518727e6e592
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
null
null
null
null
null
ubmie6eps9o
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wf954hgi6bd", "label": "RanaG", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
stefanie
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,457,681,100
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
wf954hgi6bd
null
1,025.222535
YES
8bca377e66b7
d39op4amfz
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "With prize points now existing, I should specify that I am counting prize points towards my balance, since they can be easily turned into mana. I don't...
Plasma Ballin'
rLh9rCMUs0pfRQpfMjs8
public
contract
1,717,457,692,459
will-my-balance-fall-below-m1000-fo
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Will my balance fall below Ṁ1000 for at least one week in 2024?
null
0.612243
0
NO
null
o44domn743s
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ge33hj907q4", "label": "RanaG", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
stefanie
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,457,781,476
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
ge33hj907q4
null
1,025.222535
YES
8bca377e66b7
mbuzt0strq
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ps5i1ea2h3g", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Snarflak
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,457,967,704
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
6s1umeqvv1g
null
379.722955
NO
5f6db2f28df6
ybz80nflaf
false
wwuaYatAY3bXzQ6i9xC4H48GZgr1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Afaik it already happened, that waymo guy did it.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Guilherme sampaio de oliveira
fTrez8ws4v3fyNMtgO0P
public
contract
1,717,458,104,259
ai-cult-exists-by-2027
Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKoJOpm-sb0ENGUKYt8F0z4JclT_9o-RGiWD3ED5lpC=s96-c
AI Cult exists by 2027
null
null
null
null
null
ebm0hqt9xiq
false
8K7OokTvKUWJ8OjAucDKG90Yi4H2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7v2mzreig1t", "label": "BooLightning", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
GooGhoul
Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv
public
contract
1,717,458,256,573
agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
GooGhoul
https://firebasestorage.…e8f-79dd2d8c953b
AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]
7v2mzreig1t
null
618.043146
YES
ed73a628dbcc
gefhx661zl9
false
8K7OokTvKUWJ8OjAucDKG90Yi4H2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ld2b2bzp9xq", "label": "Soli", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
GooGhoul
Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv
public
contract
1,717,458,595,176
agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
GooGhoul
https://firebasestorage.…e8f-79dd2d8c953b
AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]
ld2b2bzp9xq
null
618.043146
YES
ed73a628dbcc
ypd3oyoawji
false
2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0x7h77x6uiq8", "label": "asmith", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Forrest
nxLnwQ34lNX8eER68HBg
public
contract
1,717,458,707,850
who-is-the-demon
Forrest
https://firebasestorage.…dba-d226fde95f2e
Who is the demon?!?! 🙈🙈🙈🙊😈🙊🙈🙈🙈
0x7h77x6uiq8
null
314.948574
NO
7w43kfydev
wkavt5g2hcq
false
En8K1OQlFiP299l0BwZTCTZzG3Q2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "306w0g9fg7", "label": "Ernie", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Arkhos
fTrez8ws4v3fyNMtgO0P
public
contract
1,717,458,785,632
ai-cult-exists-by-2027
Arkhos
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLVY-kYDY0_k6HzlIF128JQa5QLUOlY7lidjyUHL88xWRvLMRM=s96-c
AI Cult exists by 2027
1e3zcm8glsv
null
null
null
null
u6a4ftgvsr
false
xfvv2IHWADa6xJjECe73FFXU3CV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6589rndz2ud", "label": "EugeneBixby", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
EugeneBixby
qTW7ZeOLOuA7xKiKbs6y
public
contract
1,717,459,171,820
will-ukrainian-forces-attempt-to-re
EugeneBixby
https://firebasestorage.…a71-2fe7e17f7e21
Will Ukrainian forces attempt to retake Crimea in 2024?
6589rndz2ud
0.09
3,553.187922
YES
null
xe7w267tm4
false
dKOk2zMKyrOTPZBLeSActdzpuxg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qxffbb4nibe", "label": "IdkIdc", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
NADZOR
w1FLeke619n7j38hAq94
public
contract
1,717,459,386,791
do-you-support-trump-or-biden
NADZOR
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteoJJ88un-dKcmrPSko-P0Qj73HJcIWR-CYy0Kk5oZvETE=s96-c
Do you support Trump or Biden?
s0ks4hhryk8
null
null
null
null
xlbgaere8o
false
T2aOrjx1sJMVQeHFWdKaQeTrNYe2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "FWIW, I found your sex poll for this year on the side bar.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type":...
Crissman Loomis
yNaODVFlMXRbuUCPn3RP
public
contract
1,717,459,419,860
will-manifold-reverse-its-sexnegati
CrissmanLoomis
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7tbB1GiaIFOka7xVzWIrnZSBrVVEnXmnVxBymXF64=s96-c
Will Manifold reverse its sex-negative decision and list my market before Manifest starts?
null
null
null
null
null
0dqr9z65vej
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xlbgaere8o", "label": "CrissmanLoomis", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
yNaODVFlMXRbuUCPn3RP
public
contract
1,717,459,627,797
will-manifold-reverse-its-sexnegati
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Manifold reverse its sex-negative decision and list my market before Manifest starts?
xlbgaere8o
0.231245
420.438521
NO
null
44k8g0jojge
false
AAlytu8Z2cYd1ewYzuqhkU9NMgt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fs5q780t7i", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
niko
9eDK3nny1QPGkdtFZe56
public
contract
1,717,459,729,024
manifest-bingo-what-will-i-experien
Nikos
https://firebasestorage.…a97-2c3621c2928b
🎪Manifest Bingo: What will I experience at Manifest 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
rql008bl8x
null
null
null
null
eg28a61cmiw
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "FWIW Boichik is the Berkeley shop featured in the notorious NYT article saying california had the best bagels ", "type": "text" }, ...
Ziddletwix
9eDK3nny1QPGkdtFZe56
public
contract
1,717,459,940,753
manifest-bingo-what-will-i-experien
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
🎪Manifest Bingo: What will I experience at Manifest 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
62.528054
YES
bb0e03da9a4d
wo69y2772zb
false
TuJuaddtD1ay1k12zqfMxTOrFvB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "1dutbjihpcqj", "label": "Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
Noam Postavsky
BW5VCnUFXtcBhEq0iK2o
public
contract
1,717,461,450,685
is-fasterthanlight-travel-physicall
NoamPostavsky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfqy141OU48nZbbzAqbAwXwp8n92jUtgA4bR7Z12Q=s96-c
Is faster-than-light travel physically possible?
1dutbjihpcqj
0.184115
113.547922
NO
null
4qitikjudmd
false
bRxFA0SNOJg52WV10V4gWXO99Gr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Can we get a resolution on this?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
John
tCR44DScVgFitzlbntYM
public
contract
1,717,461,457,222
the-most-popular-wikipedia-article-fb023aa451cf
Johne5ee
https://storage.googleap…0V4gWXO99Gr2.png
The most popular Wikipedia article in May 2024? (excl. past winners)
null
null
755.394889
YES
0016a250d3c5
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Predictor 🔥
gKy8PAj9g8xG2ofY3MYw
public
contract
1,717,462,839,165
offical-market-for-t20-world-cup-ma
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
Offical market for T20 Cricket World cup matches 2024
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NO
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false
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Not Reddit
ykNvT5p032hmyk9XlPVM
public
contract
1,717,462,866,817
israel-retaliatory-strike-community
Reddit
https://firebasestorage.…7da-bc620d42cd8a
Israel Retaliatory Strike Community Pool [ADD YOURS]
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YES
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