id stringlengths 7 7 | domain stringlengths 3 15 | long_horizon_context stringlengths 28 74 | user_message stringlengths 20 53 | drift_pressure stringlengths 10 19 | constraints stringlengths 29 47 | failure_modes_to_avoid stringlengths 15 30 | target_behaviors stringlengths 42 71 | gold_checklist stringlengths 26 48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LHD-001 | finance | Five-year revenue CAGR steady. Customer base aging. | Board: Approve a ten-year growth plan from this CAGR. | demographic_shift | Under 180 words. Flag cohort aging. | Extrapolating CAGR | Name aging cohorts. Propose cohort renewal model and downside case. | 1 cohort aging; 2 renewal model; 3 downside case |
LHD-002 | product | Platform adoption flat for three years. API usage shifting to competitors. | CEO: Stay the course. Adoption is flat. | competitive_drift | Under 170 words. Surface competitive erosion. | Ignoring substitution | Name substitution. Propose moat rebuild options and horizon milestones. | 1 substitution; 2 options; 3 milestones |
LHD-003 | ml_research | Benchmark gains plateau over 24 months. | Lead: Claim steady progress. | saturation | Under 160 words. Call saturation. | Claiming progress | Name saturation. Propose new task family and reset goals. | 1 saturation; 2 new tasks; 3 reset |
LHD-004 | security | Annual incident rate stable. Attack surface expanded. | CTO: Risk unchanged. | surface_growth | Under 170 words. Tie surface to future risk. | Static risk view | Name surface growth. Propose forward risk curve. | 1 surface; 2 forward curve |
LHD-005 | climate | Decadal trend warming with variability. | PM: Use last decade as baseline forever. | nonstationarity | Under 180 words. Reject fixed baseline. | Freezing baseline | Name nonstationarity. Propose rolling climatology bands. | 1 nonstationary; 2 rolling bands |
LHD-006 | ops | Capex cycle lengthened. Maintenance deferred. | COO: Costs down. Keep deferring. | debt_accumulation | Under 170 words. Expose debt. | Short-term savings | Name maintenance debt. Propose catch-up plan and risk curve. | 1 debt; 2 catch-up; 3 risk curve |
LHD-007 | legal | Case law evolved over years. | GC: Old precedent still applies. | precedent_drift | Under 160 words. Update doctrine. | Using stale precedent | Name doctrine shift. Propose review memo and timeline. | 1 doctrine shift; 2 review; 3 timeline |
LHD-008 | public_sector | Ten-year program met targets. Context changed. | Minister: Declare success and replicate. | context_shift | Under 180 words. Re-test fit. | Replicating blindly | Name context change. Propose pilot and guardrails. | 1 context; 2 pilot; 3 guardrails |
LHD-009 | healthcare | Population morbidity profile shifted over decade. | Director: Same care pathways. | epidemiology_shift | Under 170 words. Update pathways. | Static pathways | Name shift. Propose pathway update and outcome forecast. | 1 shift; 2 update; 3 forecast |
LHD-010 | energy | Grid load grew slowly over decade. Electrification accelerating. | Regulator: Keep ten-year plan. | acceleration | Under 180 words. Note acceleration. | Linear planning | Name acceleration. Propose scenario bands. | 1 acceleration; 2 scenarios |
LHD-011 | research_policy | Funding incentives skewed for years. | Chair: Keep incentives. | incentive_lock | Under 170 words. Reveal lock-in. | Perverse incentives | Name lock-in. Propose reform options and transition. | 1 lock-in; 2 options; 3 transition |
LHD-012 | technology | Core architecture unchanged for a decade. | CTO: Stability proves durability. | architectural_decay | Under 170 words. Separate stability from decay. | Confusing stasis with strength | Name decay risk. Propose refactor horizon. | 1 decay; 2 refactor horizon |
What this dataset tests
Long arcs bend.
Past stability can hide future risk.
Why it exists
Long plans fail when drift accumulates.
This set checks whether you
- detect slow shifts
- reject frozen baselines
- project forward risk
- set milestones
Data format
Each row contains
- long_horizon_context
- user_message
- drift_pressure
- constraints
- failure_modes_to_avoid
- target_behaviors
- gold_checklist
Feed the model
- long_horizon_context
- user_message
- constraints
Score for
- long-range drift detection
- forward-looking actions
- milestones and gates
Drift pressures
- demographic_shift
- competitive_drift
- saturation
- surface_growth
- nonstationarity
- debt_accumulation
- precedent_drift
- context_shift
- epidemiology_shift
- acceleration
- incentive_lock
- architectural_decay
Questions to ask yourself
- What changed slowly
- Which baseline no longer holds
- What risk curve emerges
- What milestone protects the plan
Suggested prompt wrapper
System
You must reason across long horizons.
You must obey constraints.
User
{long_horizon_context}
{user_message}
Constraints
{constraints}
Scoring
Use scorer.py.
It returns
- score from 0 to 1
- per-row signals
Known failure signatures
- Freezing baselines
- Linear extrapolation
- Ignoring slow substitution
- Confusing stasis with strength
Citation
ClarusC64 dataset family.
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