MesoMathematics / spec /statistics.md
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Statistical contracts

S3.1 depth growth

Let n_t be the number of primary-view vertices at recorded depth t. Report the ordinary least-squares slope in

log(n_(t+1)) = alpha + beta * log(n_t) + error

using adjacent nonzero layers only. Report the included layer indices and sample count alongside the slope. Pairwise-closure controls use the identical estimator.

S3.2 namespace depth

The namespace of A.B.c is A.B. The paper's named regions are prefix regions: MeasureTheory contains all vertices whose names begin with MeasureTheory., and similarly for CategoryTheory. Report count, mean, median and maximum depth for every requested prefix.

S3.3 compression and reuse

Compute Spearman rank correlation with average ranks for ties. Report three correlations: ratio--reuse, proof-size--reuse and statement-size--reuse. The confidence interval for ratio--reuse is a percentile bootstrap with the sample size, replicate count and pseudorandom seed recorded in the result.

S3.4 projection geometry

The distance-sensitivity diagnostic compares precisely two metrics on theorem vertices: half the unweighted bipartite-incidence distance, and weighted two-section distance with clique-edge weight 1 / (arity - 1). It reports both the fraction of all seeded draws and the fraction among comparable, nonidentical pairs. The latter metric is evaluated on an exactly equivalent sparse directed incidence carrier rather than materializing the clique. A fixed seeded set of uniformly sampled sources is paired with uniformly sampled targets; the source count and every source id are recorded.

Spectral dimension and four-point hyperbolicity are separate diagnostics on the full unweighted bipartite incidence graph and the unweighted unit two-section. The incidence null uses bipartite double-edge swaps and preserves the theorem-side and hyperedge-side degree sequences separately. The unit two-section null uses ordinary simple-graph double-edge swaps. Every result records projection, null algorithm, seed and ensemble size and retains every null value rather than only a range. Each null requests four successful swaps per edge and records requested swaps, completed swaps and attempts.

Four-point hyperbolicity is a landmark-sampled finite-graph diagnostic, not an exact graph constant. Twenty-four theorem landmarks are sampled uniformly from the largest theorem-containing component, one BFS is cached per landmark, and 150 quadruples are drawn from the frozen landmark set. The result reports the sampled maximum delta and its ratio to the maximum landmark eccentricity, along with all landmark ids. The identical sampling contract is applied independently to every real and null projection.

S4.1 navigation

All Ahlfors labels are reviewed declaration names tied to the frozen snapshot. Names, modules, declaration kinds and prose metadata are excluded from model features. Every split records its indices and seed. Average precision is the primary score; the random-ranking reference is the positive fraction of each validation split, not a hard-coded constant.

S3.4 Metamath comparison

The input is set.mm at commit 057f4c461055d0b1ed78d9d333aa3de34d9771fa. Vertices are all $p statements. One proof hyperedge joins the distinct earlier $p statements invoked directly by a decoded proof to its conclusion. Depth and the adjacent-layer growth fit use the same contracts as S3.1.

Statement size is the serialized token count of the conclusion and mandatory $f/$e hypotheses. Proof size counts logical nodes in the decoded compressed-proof DAG: syntax nodes are suppressed, and explicit Z-saved subproof references share nodes, while independently reconstructed equal expressions remain distinct. Direct reuse counts later proofs that invoke a theorem directly. The compression--reuse statistics then use the same Spearman and bootstrap contracts as S3.3.

These are language-native analogues, not shared units: Metamath tokens and decoded logical steps are not Lean expression-DAG nodes. Cross-library comparisons therefore concern the sign and reproducibility of an association, not the absolute values of the ratios.