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We develop a martingale approximation approach to studying the limiting behavior of quadratic forms of Markov chains. We use the technique to examine the asymptotic behavior of lag-window estimators in time series and we apply the results to Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. |
We study the behavior of a real $p$-dimensional Wishart random matrix with $n$ degrees of freedom when $n,p\rightarrow\infty$ but $p/n\rightarrow 0$. We establish the existence of phase transitions when $p$ grows at the order $n^{(K+1)/(K+3)}$ for every $k\in\mathbb{N}$, and derive expressions for approximating densit... |
This paper is concerned with the characterizations of fixed points of the generating function of branching processes with countably infinitely many types. We assume each particle of type $i$ can only give offspring of type $j\geq i$, whose number only depends on $j-i$. |
Well-posedness à la Friedrichs is proved for a class of degenerate Kolmogorov equations associated to stochastic Allen-Cahn equations with logarithmic potential. The thermodynamical consistency of the model requires the potential to be singular and the multiplicative noise coefficient to vanish at the respective poten... |
We build and study a recursive algorithm based on the occupation measure of an Euler scheme with decreasing step for the numerical approximation of the quasistationary distribution (QSD) of an elliptic diffusion in a bounded domain. We prove the almost sure convergence of the procedure for a family of redistributions ... |
We prove that the semigroup generated by the open KPZ equation on a bounded spatial interval with Neumann boundary conditions parametrized by real parameters u and v enjoys the strong Feller property. From this we conclude that for u+v>0, min(u,v)>-1 the stationary measure constructed in Corwin and Knizel (<a hr... |
We show that the central limit theorem for linear statistics over determinantal point processes with $J$-Hermitian kernels holds under fairly general conditions. In particular, We establish Gaussian limit for linear statistics over determinantal point processes on union of two copies of $\mathbb{R}^d$ when the correla... |
The study of epidemic models plays an important role in mathematical epidemiology. There are many researches on epidemic models using ordinary differential equations, partial differential equations or stochastic differential equations. |
In this short note we present an alternative proof of the so-called First Visit Time Lemma (FVTL), originally presented by Cooper and Frieze in its first formulation in [21], and then used and refined in a list of papers by Cooper, Frieze and coauthors. We work in the original setting, considering a growing sequence o... |
We consider a stochastic volatility model with jumps where the underlying asset price is driven by the process sum of a 2-dimensional Brownian motion and a 2-dimensional compensated Poisson process. The market is incomplete, resulting in infinitely many equivalent martingale measures. |
We propose a Markov model for the spread of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) among drug users who use injections. We then proceed to an asymptotic analysis (large initial population) and show that the Markov process is close to the solution of a non linear autonomous differential system. |
This paper contains the technical foundations from stochastic differential geometry for the construction of geometrically intrinsic nonlinear recursive filters. A diffusion X on a manifold N is run for a time interval T, with a random initial condition. |
We study the continuous-time version of the empirical correlation coefficient between the paths of two possibly correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, known as Yule's nonsense correlation for these paths. Using sharp tools from the analysis on Wiener chaos, we establish the asymptotic normality of the fluctuatio... |
We investigate Lyapunov exponents of Brownian motion in a nonnegative Poissonian potential $V$. The Lyapunov exponent depends on the potential $V$ and our interest lies in the decay rate of the Lyapunov exponent if the potential $V$ tends to zero. |
We investigate the problem of quantifying contraction coefficients of Markov transition kernels in Kantorovich ($L^1$ Wasserstein) distances. For diffusion processes, relatively precise quantitative bounds on contraction rates have recently been derived by combining appropriate couplings with carefully designed Kantor... |
In this article, we prove some results concerning the truncated two-point function of the infinite-range Ising model above and below the critical temperature. More precisely, if the coupling constants are of the form $J_{x}= \psi(x)e^{ -\rho(x)}$ with $\rho$ some norm and $\psi$ an subexponential correction, we show u... |
In the paper the rescaled occupation time fluctuation process of a certain empirical system is investigated. The system consists of particles evolving independently according to \alpha-stable motion in R^d, \alpha<d<2\alpha. |
We show that for $p>1$ there is no $p$-cyclically monotone stationary matching of two independent Poisson processes in dimension $d=2$. The proof combines the $p$-harmonic approximation result from \cite[Theorem 1.1]{koch23} with local asymptotics for the two-dimensional matching problem. |
Onsager-Machlup functionals are used to describe the dynamics of a continuous stochastic process. For a stochastic process taking values in a Riemannian manifold, they have been studied extensively. |
The results established by Flandoli, Gubinelli and Priola ({\it Invent. Math. |
We extend earlier results on conditioning of super-Brownian motion to general branching rules. We obtain representations of the conditioned process, both as an $h$-transform, and as an unconditioned superprocess with immigration along a branching tree. |
We introduce the effect of site contamination in a model for spatial epidemic spread and show that the presence of site contamination may have a strict effect on the model in the sense that it can make an otherwise subcritical process supercritical. Each site on $\mathbb{Z}^d$ is independently assigned a random number... |
We establish the existence of infinitely many stationary solutions, as well as ergodic stationary solutions, to the three dimensional Navier--Stokes and Euler equations in both deterministic and stochastic settings, driven by additive noise. These solutions belong to the regularity class $C(\mathbb{R};H^{\vartheta})\ca... |
On any denumerable product of probability spaces, we extend the discrete Malliavin structure for conditionally independent random variables. As a consequence, we obtain the chaos decomposition for functionals of conditionally independent random variables. |
This paper considers a variant of the classical Cramér-Lundberg model that is particularly appropriate in the credit context, with the distinguishing feature that it corresponds to a finite number of obligors. The focus is on computing the ruin probability, i.e., the probability that the initial reserve, increased by ... |
The Togashi Kaneko model (TK model), introduced by Togashi and Kaneko in 2001, is a simple stochastic reaction network that displays discreteness-induced transitions between meta-stable patterns. Here we study a constrained Langevin approximation (CLA) of this model. |
Improving upon results of Rudelson and Vershynin, we establish delocalization bounds for eigenvectors of independent-entry random matrices. In particular, we show that with high probability every eigenvector is delocalized, meaning any subset of its coordinates carries an appropriate proportion of its mass. |
The work developed in the paper concerns the multivariate fractional Brownian motion (mfBm) viewed through the lens of the wavelet transform. After recalling some basic properties on the mfBm, we calculate the correlation structure of its wavelet transform. |
We extend the Itō formula \cite{MR1837298}*{Theorem 2.3} for semimartingales with rcll paths. We also comment on Local time process of such semimartingales. |
We derive bridges from general multidimensional linear non time-homogeneous processes using only the transition densities of the original process giving their integral representations (in terms of a standard Wiener process) and so-called anticipative representations. We derive a stochastic differential equation satisf... |
We provide necessary and sufficient conditions on the characteristics of an infinitely divisible distribution under which its characteristic function $\phi$ decays polynomially. Under a mild regularity condition this polynomial decay is equivalent to $1/\phi$ being a Fourier multiplier on Besov spaces. |
This paper investigates asymptotic estimates for the entrance probability of the discounted aggregate claim vector from a multivariate renewal risk model into some rare set. We provide asymptotic results for the entrance probability on both finite and infinite time horizons under various assumptions regarding the stoc... |
We present recent results on Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs), involved in biological modeling. PDMPs, first introduced in the probabilistic literature by Davis (1984), are a very general class of Markov processes and are being increasingly popular in biological applications. |
The slow drift (with speed $\eps$) of a parameter through a pitchfork bifurcation point, known as the dynamic pitchfork bifurcation, is characterized by a significant delay of the transition from the unstable to the stable state. We describe the effect of an additive noise, of intensity $\sigma$, by giving precise est... |
We consider "nonconventional" averaging setup in the form $\frac {dX^\epsilon(t)}{dt}=\epsilon B\big(X^\epsilon(t),\xi(q_1(t)), \xi(q_2(t)),...,\xi(q_\ell(t))\big)$ where $\xi(t),t\geq 0$ is either a stochastic process or a dynamical system (i.e. then $\xi(t)=F^tx$) with sufficiently fast mixing while $q_j(t)=\... |
We study a basic model for mutations. We derive exact formulae for the mean time needed to discover the master sequence, the mean returning time to the initial state, or to any Hamming class. |
Polynomial convergence rates in total variation are established in Erlang-Sevastyanov's type problem with an infinite number of servers and a general distribution of service under assumptions on the intensity of serving. |
We generalize the Poisson limit theorem to binary functions of random objects whose law is invariant under the action of an amenable group. Examples include stationary random fields, exchangeable sequences, and exchangeable graphs. |
Let a random simplex in a d-dimensional convex body be the convex hull of d+1 random points from the body. We study the following question: As a function of the convex body, is the expected volume of a random simplex monotone non-decreasing under inclusion? |
In this article we revisit the weak optimal transport (WOT) problem, introduced by Gozlan, Roberto, Samson and Tetali (2017). We work on the real line, with barycentric cost functions, and as our first result give the following characterization of the set of optimal couplings for two probability measures $\mu$ and $\n... |
A simple way to sample a uniform triangulation of the sphere with a fixed number $n$ of vertices is a Monte-Carlo method: we start from an arbitrary triangulation and flip repeatedly a uniformly chosen edge. We give a lower bound in $n^{5/4}$ on the mixing time of this Markov chain. |
The paper studies closed queueing networks containing a server station and $k$ client stations. The server station is an infinite server queueing system, and client stations are single-server queueing systems with autonomous service, i.e. every client station serves customers (units) only at random instants generated ... |
Power laws and power laws with exponential cut-off are two distinct families of distributions on the positive real half-line. In the present paper, we propose a unified treatment of both families by building a family of distributions that interpolates between them, which we call Interpolating Family (IF) of distributi... |
We consider the contact process on a random graph with fixed degree distribution given by a power law. We follow the work of Chatterjee and Durrett, who showed that for arbitrarily small infection parameter $\lambda$, the survival time of the process is larger than a stretched exponential function of the number of ver... |
In this paper, we study the stochastic heat equation driven by a multiplicative space-time $G$-white noise within the framework of sublinear expectations. The existence and uniqueness of the mild solution are proved. |
In this paper, we build a model for biological neural nets where the activity of the network is described by Hawkes processes having a variable length memory. The particularity of this paper is to deal with an infinite number of components. |
Various mixing properties of $\beta$-, $\beta'$- and Gaussian Delaunay tessellations in $\mathbb{R}^{d-1}$ are studied. It is shown that these tessellation models are absolutely regular, or $\beta$-mixing. |
In this article we consider a toy example of an optimal stopping problem driven by fragmentation processes. We show that one can work with the concept of stopping lines to formulate the notion of an optimal stopping problem and moreover, to reduce it to a classical optimal stopping problem for a generalized Ornstein-U... |
We investigate asymptotic behaviour of probabilities of large deviations for normalized combinatorial sums. We find a zone in which these probabilities are equivalent to the tail of the standard normal law. |
We consider a stochastic individual-based population model with competition, trait-structure affecting reproduction and survival, and changing environment. The changes of traits are described by jump processes, and the dynamics can be approximated in large population by a non-linear PDE with a non-local mutation opera... |
We consider Dynkin games for Markov processes associated with semi-Dirichlet forms. Dynkin games are the optimal stopping games introduced as the models of zero-sum games by two players. |
In this paper, a critical Galton-Watson branching process with immigration $Z_{n}$ is studied. We first obtain the convergence rate of the harmonic moment of $Z_{n}$. |
We study spectral Galerkin approximations of an Allen--Cahn equation over the two-dimensional torus perturbed by weak space-time white noise of strength $\sqrt{\varepsilon}$. We introduce a Wick renormalisation of the equation in order to have a system that is well-defined as the regularisation is removed. |
Last passage percolation (LPP) is a model of a directed metric and a zero-temperature polymer where the main observable is a directed path evolving in a random environment accruing as energy the sum of the random weights along itself. When the environment has light tails and a fast decay of correlation, the fluctuatio... |
In multi-state life insurance, an adequate balance between analytic tractability, computational efficiency, and statistical flexibility is of great importance. This might explain the popularity of Markov chain modelling, where matrix analytic methods allow for a comprehensive treatment. |
We consider a single-server cyclic polling system with three queues where the server follows an adaptive rule: if it finds one of queues empty in a given cycle, it decides not to visit that queue in the next cycle. In the case of limited service policies, we prove stability and instability results under some condition... |
It was shown in Mishura et al. (Stochastic Process. Appl. |
We study the deviation inequality for the spectral norm of structured random matrices with non-gaussian entries. In particular, we establish an optimal bound for the $p$-th moment of the spectral norm by transfering the spectral norm into the suprema of canonical processes. |
In this paper we consider the following SDE with distributional drift $b$: $$ {\rm d} X_t=\sigma(X_t){\rm d} B_t+b(X_t){\rm d} t,\ X_0=x\in{\mathbb R}^d, $$ where $\sigma$ is a bounded continuous and uniformly non-degenerate $d\times d$-matrix-valued function, $B$ is a $d$-dimensional standard Brownian motion. Let $\a... |
In a previous work, we associated with any submartingale $X$ of class $(\Sigma)$, defined on a filtered probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \mathbb{P}, (\mathcal{F}_t)_{t \geq 0})$ satisfying some technical conditions, a $\sigma$-finite measure $\mathcal{Q}$ on $(\Omega, \mathcal{F})$, such that for all $t \geq 0$... |
The optimal function $f$ satisfying <br>$$ <br>\mathbb{E} |\sum_{1}^n X_i | <br>\ge f(\mathrbb{E}|X_1|,...,\mathbb{E}|X_n|) <br>$$ for every martingale $(X_1,X_1+X_2, ...,\sum_{i=1}^n X_i)$ is shown to be given by $$ f(a) = \max \Big\{a_k-\sum_{i=1}^{k-1} a_i\Big\}_{k=1}^n \cup \Big\{\frac {a_k}2\Big\}_{k=3}^n $$ for $... |
We investigate random partitions of complete graphs defined by Poissonian emsembles of Markov loops |
Let $X=(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ be a known process and $T$ an unknown random time independent of $X$. Our goal is to derive the distribution of $T$ based on an iid sample of $X_T$. |
A standard Gelfand-Tsetlin pattern of depth $n$ is a configuration of particles in $\{1,...,n\} \times \R$. For each $r \in \{1,...,n\}$, $\{r\} \times \R$ is referred to as the $r^\text{th}$ level of the pattern. |
We present an upper bound on the mixing rate of the equilibrium state of a dynamical systems defined by the one-sided shift and a non Hölder potential of summable variations. The bound follows from an estimation of the relaxation speed of chains with complete connections with summable decay, which is obtained via a ex... |
Consider finite sequences $X_{[1,n]}=X_1\dots X_n$ and $Y_{[1,n]}=Y_1\dots Y_n$ of length $n$, consisting of i.i.d.\ samples of random letters from a finite alphabet, and let $S$ and $T$ be chosen i.i.d.\ randomly from the unit ball in the space of symmetric scoring functions over this alphabet augmented by a gap symbo... |
We consider standard first-passage percolation on $\Z^d$. Let $e_1$ be the first coordinate vector. |
We introduce and analyse a class of fragmentation-coalescence processes defined on finite systems of particles organised into clusters. Coalescent events merge multiple clusters simultaneously to form a single larger cluster, while fragmentation breaks up a cluster into a collection of singletons. |
We study a model of nonintersecting Brownian bridges on an interval with either absorbing or reflecting walls at the boundaries, focusing on the point in space-time at which the particles meet the wall. These processes are determinantal, and in different scaling limits when the particles approach the reflecting (resp.... |
In this paper, we derive some upper and lower bounds and inequalities for the total variation distance (TVD) and the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD), also known as the relative entropy, between two probability measures $\mu$ and $\nu$ defined by $$ <br>D_{\mathrm{TV}} ( \mu, \nu ) = \sup_{B \in \mathcal{B} (\mathbb{R... |
We consider the simple random walk on a random d-regular graph with n vertices, and investigate percolative properties of the set of vertices not visited by the walk until time un, where u > 0 is a fixed positive parameter. It was shown in [<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1012.5117" data-arxiv-id="1012.5117" class="... |
In this paper, we generalize to Gaussian Volterra processes the existence and uniqueness of solutions for a class of non linear backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE) and we establish the relation between the non linear BSDE and the partial differential equation (PDE). A comparison theorem for the solution ... |
In this paper we develop a representation formula of Clark-Ocone type for any integrable Poisson functionals, which extends the Poisson imbedding for point processes. This representation formula differs from the classical Clark-Ocone formula on three accounts. |
In this paper, we revisit the proof of the large deviations principle of Wiener chaoses partially given by Borel, and then by Ledoux in its full form. We show that some heavy-tail phenomena observed in large deviations can be explained by the same mechanism as for the Wiener chaoses, meaning that the deviations are cr... |
Let $P_s\phi(x)=\mathbb{E}\, \phi(X^x (s))$, be the transition semigroup on the space $B_b(E)$ of bounded measurable functions on a Banach space $E$, of the Markov family defined by the linear equation with additive noise $$ d X |
We consider the discrete Boolean model of percolation on graphs satisfying a doubling metric condition. We study sufficient conditions on the distribution of the radii of balls placed at the points of a Bernoulli point process for the absence of percolation, provided that the retention parameter of the underlying poin... |
In this paper, we consider a linear model with jumps driven by a Brownian motion and a compensated Poisson process, whose drift and diffusion coefficients as well as its intensity are unknown parameters. Supposing that the process is observed discretely at high frequency we derive the local asymptotic normality (LAN) ... |
This text surveys different probabilistic aspects of a model which is used to describe the evolution of an object that falls apart randomly as time passes. Each point of view yields useful techniques to establish properties of such random fragmentation processes. |
We know from Ram{í}rez and Rider that the hard edge of the spectrum of the Beta-Laguerre ensemble converges, in the high-dimensional limit, to the bottom of the spectrum of the stochastic Bessel operator. Using stochastic analysis techniques, we show that, in the high temperatures limit, the rescaled eigenvalues point... |
In this paper we extend some classical results valid for canonical multiplicative cascades to exact scaling log-infinitely divisible cascades. We complete previous results on non-degeneracy and moments of positive orders obtained by Barral and Mandelbrot, and Bacry and Muzy: we provide a necessary and sufficient condi... |
Since the first paper on polling systems, written by Mack in 1957, a huge number of papers on this topic has been written. A typical polling system consists of a number of queues, attended by a single server. |
This paper proves a representation theorem regarding sequences of random elements that take values in a Borel space and are measurable with respect to the sigma algebra generated by an arbitrary union of sigma algebras. This, together with a related representation theorem of Kallenberg, is used to characterize the set... |
Hermite processes are a class of self-similar processes with stationary increments. They often arise in limit theorems under long-range dependence. |
We consider a random, uniformly elliptic coefficient field $a(x)$ on the $d$-dimensional integer lattice $\mathbb{Z}^d$. We are interested in the spatial decay of the quenched elliptic Green function $G(a;x,y)$. |
Keller and Kindler recently established a quantitative version of the famous Benjamini~--Kalai--Schramm Theorem on noise sensitivity of Boolean functions. The result was extended to the continuous Gaussian setting by Keller, Mossel and Sen by means of a Central Limit Theorem argument. |
We study random walks on sub-Riemannian manifolds using the framework of retractions, i.e., approximations of normal geodesics. We show that such walks converge to the correct horizontal Brownian motion if normal geodesics are approximated to at least second order. |
In this paper we study the stationary workload distribution of a fluid tandem queue in heavy traffic. We consider different types of Lévy input, covering compound Poisson, $\alpha$-stable Lévy motion (with $1<\alpha<2$), and Brownian motion. |
For a quadratic Markov branching process (QMBP), we show that the decay parameter is equal to the first eigenvalue of a Sturm-Liouville operator associated with the PDE that the generating function of the transition probability satisfies. The proof is based on the spectral properties of the Sturm-Liouville operator. |
We carry out an study of the Brox diffusion with killing. It turns out that when leaving fixed the environment one is able to recast some theory of diffusion and differential operators to deal with the ill-posed generator of the Brox diffusion. |
Consider the random graph on $n$ vertices $1, ..., n$. Each vertex $i$ is assigned a type $X_i$ with $X_1, ..., X_n$ being independent identically distributed as a nonnegative discrete random variable $X$. |
It is shown how to construct a successful co-adapted coupling of two copies of an $n$-dimensional Brownian motion $(B_1,...,B_n)$ while simultaneously coupling all corresponding copies of Lévy stochastic areas $\int B_i dB_j-\int B_j dB_i$. It is conjectured that successful co-adapted couplings still exist when the Lé... |
We study the existence and propagation of singularities of the solution to a one-dimensional linear stochastic wave equation driven by an additive Gaussian noise that is white in time and colored in space. Our approach is based on a simultaneous law of the iterated logarithm and general methods for Gaussian processes. |
The aim of these notes is to give an overview of the current results about existence and uniqueness of solutions for the stochastic Euler equation driven by a Brownian noise in a two-dimensional bounded domain. |
Place an obstacle with probability $1-p$ independently at each vertex of $\mathbb Z^d$, and run a simple random walk until hitting one of the obstacles. For $d\geq 2$ and $p$ strictly above the critical threshold for site percolation, we condition on the environment where the origin is contained in an infinite connect... |
Given two random finite sequences from $[k]^n$ such that a prefix of the first sequence is a suffix of the second, we examine the length of their longest common subsequence. If $\ell$ is the length of the overlap, we prove that the expected length of an LCS is approximately $\max(\ell, \mathbb{E}[L_n])$, where $L_n$ i... |
The limiting distribution \mu of the normalized number of key comparisons required by the Quicksort sorting algorithm is known to be the unique fixed point of a certain distributional transformation T -- unique, that is, subject to the constraints of zero mean and finite variance. We show that a distribution is a fixe... |
Markov chain approximations of symmetric jump processes are investigated. Tightness results and a central limit theorem are established. |
In this paper, we derive global sharp heat kernel estimates for symmetric alpha-stable processes (or equivalently, for the fractional Laplacian with zero exterior condition) in two classes of unbounded C^{1,1} open sets in R^d: half-space-like open sets and exterior open sets. These open sets can be disconnected. |
Let $X^1, ..., X^k$ and $Y^1, ..., Y^m$ be jointly independent copies of random variables $X$ and $Y$, respectively. For a fixed total number $n$ of random variables, we aim at maximising $M(k,m):= E \max \{X^1, ..., X^k, Y^1, >..., Y^{m} \}$ in $k = n-m\ge 0$, which corresponds to maximising the expected lifetime ... |
We prove a Central Limit Theorem (CLT) in the non-commutative setting of random matrix products where the underlying process is driven by a subshift of finite type (SFT) with Markov measure. We use the martingale method introduced by Y. Benoist and J.F. Quint in the iid setting. |
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