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In this work we study the set size distribution estimation problem, where elements are randomly sampled from a collection of non-overlapping sets and we seek to recover the original set size distribution from the samples. This problem has applications to capacity planning, network theory, among other areas. |
We have shown in previous work that statistical inference for cooperative sequential adsorption model can be based on maximum likelihood estimation. In this paper we continue this research and establish asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator in thermodynamic limit. |
Understanding the distributions of spectral estimators in low-rank random matrix models, also known as signal-plus-noise matrix models, is fundamentally important in various statistical learning problems, including network analysis, matrix denoising, and matrix completion. This paper investigates the entrywise eigenve... |
Exponential family random graph models (ERGMs) can be understood in terms of a set of structural biases that act on an underlying reference distribution. This distribution determines many aspects of the behavior and interpretation of the ERGM families incorporating it. |
The M-estimators of multivariate scatter are known to have breakdown points no greater than 1/(p+1), where p is the dimension of the data. In high dimension, the breakdown points are usually considered to be disappointingly low. |
Characterizing the asymptotic distributions of eigenvectors for large random matrices poses important challenges yet can provide useful insights into a range of statistical applications. To this end, in this paper we introduce a general framework of asymptotic theory of eigenvectors (ATE) for large spiked random matri... |
We prove some efficient inference results concerning estimation of a Ornstein-Uhlenbeck regression model, which is driven by a non-Gaussian stable Levy process and where the output process is observed at high-frequency over a fixed time period. Local asymptotics for the likelihood function is presented, followed by a ... |
There has been significant study on the sample complexity of testing properties of distributions over large domains. For many properties, it is known that the sample complexity can be substantially smaller than the domain size. |
The Portmanteau test provides the vanilla method for detecting serial correlations in classical univariate time series analysis. The method is extended to the case of observations from a locally stationary functional time series. |
Let $\hat\Sigma=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n X_i\otimes X_i$ denote the sample covariance operator of centered i.i.d.~observations $X_1,\dots,X_n$ in a real separable Hilbert space, and let $\Sigma=\mathbb{E}(X_1\otimes X_1)$. The focus of this paper is to understand how well the bootstrap can approximate the distribution ... |
This article contains two main theoretical results on neural spike train models. The first assumes that the spike train is modeled as a counting or point process on the real line where the conditional intensity function is a product of a free firing rate function s, which depends only on the stimulus, and a recovery f... |
Given i.i.d. data from an unknown distribution, we consider the problem of predicting future items. An adaptive way to estimate the probability density is to recursively subdivide the domain to an appropriate data-dependent granularity. |
This paper explores the information-theoretic limitations of graph property testing in zero-field Ising models. Instead of learning the entire graph structure, sometimes testing a basic graph property such as connectivity, cycle presence or maximum clique size is a more relevant and attainable objective. |
In this paper, we draw attention to a promising yet slightly underestimated measure of variability - the Gini coefficient. We describe two new ways of defining and interpreting this parameter. |
We revisit the problem of constructing predictive confidence sets for which we wish to obtain some type of conditional validity. We provide new arguments showing how ``split conformal'' methods achieve near desired coverage levels with high probability, a guarantee conditional on the validation data rather tha... |
In this paper, we propose a method based on GMM (the generalized method of moments) to estimate the parameters of stable distributions with $0<\alpha<2$. We don't assume symmetry for stable distributions. |
In the problem of aggregation, the aim is to combine a given class of base predictors to achieve predictions nearly as accurate as the best one. In this flexible framework, no assumption is made on the structure of the class or the nature of the target. |
One-parameter natural exponential family (NEF) plays fundamental roles in probability and statistics. This article contains two independent results: |
Many multivariate data analysis techniques for an $m\times n$ matrix $\m Y$ are related to the model $\m Y = \m M +\m E$, where $\m Y$ is an $m\times n$ matrix of full rank and $\m M$ is an unobserved mean matrix of rank $K< (m\wedge n)$. Typically the rank of $\m M$ is estimated in a heuristic way and then the lea... |
We consider the problem of computationally-efficient prediction with high dimensional and highly correlated predictors when accurate variable selection is effectively impossible. Direct application of penalization or Bayesian methods implemented with Markov chain Monte Carlo can be computationally daunting and unstabl... |
We construct new tests of exponentiality based on Yanev-Chakraborty's characterization of exponential law. We calculate limiting distributions of new tests, local Bahadur efficiency for common alternatives and describe conditions of their local asymptotic optimality. |
For time series with high temporal correlation, the empirical process converges rather slowly to its limiting distribution. Many statistics in change-point analysis, goodness-of-fit testing and uncertainty quantification admit a representation as functionals of the empirical process and therefore inherit its slow conv... |
We study the computational cost of recovering a unit-norm sparse principal component $x \in \mathbb{R}^n$ planted in a random matrix, in either the Wigner or Wishart spiked model (observing either $W + \lambda xx^\top$ with $W$ drawn from the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble, or $N$ independent samples from $\mathcal{N}(0,... |
We define Letac-Wesolowski-Matsumoto-Yor (LWMY) functions as decreasing functions from $(0,\infty)$ onto $(0,\infty)$ with the following property: there exist independent, positive random variables $X$ and $Y$ such that the variables $f(X+Y)$ and $f(X)-f(X+Y)$ are independent. We prove that, under additional assumptio... |
We propose an estimator of the kernel-based conditional mean dependence measure obtained from an appropriate modification of a naive estimator based on usual empirical estimators. We then get asymptotic normality of this estimator both under conditional mean independence hypothesis and under the alternative hypothesis... |
Statistical models that possess symmetry arise in diverse settings such as random fields associated to geophysical phenomena, exchangeable processes in Bayesian statistics, and cyclostationary processes in engineering. We formalize the notion of a symmetric model via group invariance. |
This study focuses on recurring unemployment, that is people with two or more spells of unemployment during the period of observation (July 1993 - August 1996). First, a classification is obtained which is then used to examine the specific role of occasional jobs during a spell of unemployment and, in this context, th... |
Consider an autoregressive model with measurement error: we observe $Z_i=X_i+\epsilon_i$, where $X_i$ is a stationary solution of the equation $X_i=f_{\theta^0}(X_{i-1})+\xi_i$. The regression function $f_{\theta^0}$ is known up to a finite dimensional parameter $\theta^0$. |
We consider the limiting distribution of the quantity $X^s/(X+Y)^r$, where $X$ and $Y$ are two independent Binomial random variables with a common success probability and a number of trials $n$ and $m$, respectively, and $r,s$ are positive real numbers. Under several settings, we prove that this converges to a Normal ... |
Gaussian graphical models represent the backbone of the statistical toolbox for analyzing continuous multivariate systems. However, due to the intrinsic properties of the multivariate normal distribution, use of this model family may hide certain forms of context-specific independence that are natural to consider from... |
Approximate message passing (AMP) emerges as an effective iterative paradigm for solving high-dimensional statistical problems. However, prior AMP theory -- which focused mostly on high-dimensional asymptotics -- fell short of predicting the AMP dynamics when the number of iterations surpasses $o\big(\frac{\log n}{\lo... |
We deal with the problem of the mean square optimal estimation of linear transformations of the unobserved values of a continuous time stochastic process with periodically correlated increments. Estimates are based on observations of the process with a continuous time stochastic noise process which is periodically cor... |
In Bayesian nonparametric models, Gaussian processes provide a popular prior choice for regression function estimation. Existing literature on the theoretical investigation of the resulting posterior distribution almost exclusively assume a fixed design for covariates. |
We propose new bounds on the error of learning algorithms in terms of a data-dependent notion of complexity. The estimates we establish give optimal rates and are based on a local and empirical version of Rademacher averages, in the sense that the Rademacher averages are computed from the data, on a subset of function... |
Rejuvenation in particle filters is necessary to prevent the collapse of the weights when the number of particles is insufficient to sample the high probability regions of the state space. Rejuvenation is often implemented in a heuristic manner by the addition of stochastic samples that widen the support of the ensemb... |
Causal reasoning has gained great attention over the last half century as it allows (or at least intends) to answer questions which go above those within the capabilities of classical inferential statistics using just observational data. So far, causal research has been focused mostly on the i.i.d. setting. |
When performing Bayesian data analysis using a general linear mixed model, the resulting posterior density is almost always analytically intractable. However, if proper conditionally conjugate priors are used, there is a simple two-block Gibbs sampler that is geometrically ergodic in nearly all practical settings, inc... |
Multiple imputation (MI) inference handles missing data by imputing the missing values $m$ times, and then combining the results from the $m$ complete-data analyses. However, the existing method for combining likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) has multiple defects: |
In the recent paper [5], a Bayesian approach for constructing confidence intervals in monotone regression problems is proposed, based on credible intervals. We view this method from a frequentist point of view, and show that it corresponds to a percentile bootstrap method of which we give two versions. |
In one-dimensional density estimation on i.i.d. observations we suggest an adaptive cross-validation technique for the selection of a kernel estimator. This estimator is both asymptotic MISE-efficient with respect to the monotone oracle, and sharp minimax-adaptive over the whole scale of Sobolev spaces with smoothness... |
We give a thorough description of the asymptotic property of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the skewness parameter of a Skew Brownian Motion (SBM). Thanks to recent results on the Central Limit Theorem of the rate of convergence of estimators for the SBM, we prove a conjecture left open that the MLE has asy... |
Many standard estimators such as several maximum likelihood estimators or the empirical estimator for any law-invariant convex risk measure are not (qualitatively) robust in the classical sense. However, these estimators may nevertheless satisfy a weak (Krätschmer/Schied/Zähle 2012, 2014) or a local (Zähle 2016) robus... |
Many numerical methods for recovering ODE solutions from data rely on approximating the solutions using basis functions or kernel functions under a least square criterion. The accuracy of this approach hinges on the smoothness of the solutions. |
Estimation of a regression function from independent and identically distributed data is considered. The $L_2$ error with integration with respect to the distribution of the predictor variable is used as the error criterion. |
A projective moving average $\{X_t, t \in \mathbb{Z}\}$ is a Bernoulli shift written as a backward martingale transform of the innovation sequence. We introduce a new class of nonlinear stochastic equations for projective moving averages, termed projective equations, involving a (nonlinear) kernel $Q$ and a linear com... |
Instance ranking problems intend to recover the true ordering of the instances in a data set with a variety of applications in for example scientific, social and financial contexts. Robust statistics studies the behaviour of estimators in the presence of perturbations of the data resp. |
We consider the classical problem of estimating a vector $\bolds{\mu}=(\mu_1,...,\mu_n)$ based on independent observations $Y_i\sim N(\mu_i,1)$, $i=1,...,n$. Suppose $\mu_i$, $i=1,...,n$ are independent realizations from a completely unknown $G$. |
We provide an efficient algorithm for the classical problem, going back to Galton, Pearson, and Fisher, of estimating, with arbitrary accuracy the parameters of a multivariate normal distribution from truncated samples. Truncated samples from a $d$-variate normal ${\cal N}(\mathbf{\mu},\mathbf{\Sigma})$ means a sample... |
We conduct a review of the fiducial approach to statistical inference, following its journey from its initiation by R. A. Fisher, through various problems and criticisms, on to its general neglect, and then to its more recent resurgence. Emphasis is laid on the functional model formulation, which helps clarify the ver... |
We conduct an in-depth analysis of the Bayes risk of clustering in the context of Hidden Markov and i.i.d. models. In both settings, we identify the situations where this risk is comparable to the Bayes risk of classification and those where its minimizer, the Bayes clusterer, can be derived from the Bayes classifier.... |
This paper studies the use of a machine learning-based estimator as a control variate for mitigating the variance of Monte Carlo sampling. Specifically, we seek to uncover the key factors that influence the efficiency of control variates in reducing variance. |
We show that the stick-breaking construction of the beta process due to Paisley, et al. (2010) can be obtained from the characterization of the beta process as a Poisson process. Specifically, we show that the mean measure of the underlying Poisson process is equal to that of the beta process. |
Advances in data science are leading to new progresses in the analysis and understanding of complex dynamics for systems with experimental and observational data. With numerous physical phenomena exhibiting bursting, flights, hopping, and intermittent features, stochastic differential equations with non-Gaussian Lévy ... |
We present a new approach for random sampling of contingency tables of any size and constraints based on a recently introduced $\textit{probabilistic divide-and-conquer}$ technique. A simple exact sampling algorithm is presented for $2\times n$ tables, as well as a generalization where each entry of the table has a sp... |
We study the optimal sample complexity of learning a Gaussian directed acyclic graph (DAG) from observational data. Our main results establish the minimax optimal sample complexity for learning the structure of a linear Gaussian DAG model in two settings of interest: |
A new nonparametric approach, based on a decision tree algorithm, is proposed to calculate the overlap between two probability distributions. The devised framework is described analytically and numerically. |
We prove a central limit theorem for the components of the largest eigenvectors of the adjacency matrix of a finite-dimensional random dot product graph whose true latent positions are unknown. In particular, we follow the methodology outlined in \citet{sussman2012universally} to construct consistent estimates for the... |
We study a distributed estimation problem in which two remotely located parties, Alice and Bob, observe an unlimited number of i.i.d. samples corresponding to two different parts of a random vector. Alice can send $k$ bits on average to Bob, who in turn wants to estimate the cross-correlation matrix between the two pa... |
The univariate generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is the most commonly used tool for analyzing the properties of rare events. The ever greater utilization of Bayesian methods for extreme value analysis warrants detailed theoretical investigation, which has thus far been underdeveloped. |
This paper deals with the estimation of the unknown distribution of hidden random variables from the observation of pairwise comparisons between these variables. This problem is inspired by recent developments on Bradley-Terry models in random environment since this framework happens to be relevant to predict for inst... |
In testing for correlation of the errors in regression models the power of tests can be very low for strongly correlated errors. This counterintuitive phenomenon has become known as the "zero-power trap". |
Gaussian Processes (GP) are widely used for probabilistic modeling and inference for nonparametric regression. However, their computational complexity scales cubicly with the sample size rendering them unfeasible for large data sets. |
This paper discusses particle filtering in general hidden Markov models (HMMs) and presents novel theoretical results on the long-term stability of bootstrap-type particle filters. More specifically, we establish that the asymptotic variance of the Monte Carlo estimates produced by the bootstrap filter is uniformly bo... |
We consider testing statistical hypotheses about densities of signals in deconvolution models. A new approach to this problem is proposed. |
Chatterjee, Diaconis and Sly (2011) recently established the consistency of the maximum likelihood estimate in the $\beta$-model when the number of vertices goes to infinity. By approximating the inverse of the Fisher information matrix, we obtain its asymptotic normality under mild conditions. |
We develop $(\epsilon,\delta)$-differentially private projection-depth-based medians using the propose-test-release (PTR) and exponential mechanisms. Under general conditions on the input parameters and the population measure, (e.g. we do not assume any moment bounds), we quantify the probability the test in PTR fails... |
This paper investigates the effects of smoothed bootstrap iterations on coverage probabilities of smoothed bootstrap and bootstrap-t confidence intervals for population quantiles, and establishes the optimal kernel bandwidths at various stages of the smoothing procedures. The conventional smoothed bootstrap and bootst... |
A general lower bound is developed for the minimax risk when estimating an arbitrary functional. The bound is based on testing two composite hypotheses and is shown to be effective in estimating the nonsmooth functional ${\frac{1}{n}}\sum|\theta_i|$ from an observation $Y\sim N(\theta,I_n)$. |
We reexamine the classical linear regression model when the model is subject to two types of uncertainty: (i) some of covariates are either missing or completely inaccessible, and |
Sorted l1 regularization has been incorporated into many methods for solving high-dimensional statistical estimation problems, including the SLOPE estimator in linear regression. In this paper, we study how this relatively new regularization technique improves variable selection by characterizing the optimal SLOPE tra... |
We consider the problem of link prediction, based on partial observation of a large network, and on side information associated to its vertices. The generative model is formulated as a matrix logistic regression. |
Suppose that $\m{U} = (U_1, \ldots , U_d) $ has a Uniform$([0,1]^d)$ distribution, that $\m{Y} = (Y_1 , \ldots , Y_d) $ has the distribution $G$ on $\RR_+^d$, and let $\m{X} = (X_1 , \ldots , X_d) = (U_1 Y_1 , \ldots , U_d Y_d )$. The resulting class of distributions of $\m{X}$ (as $G$ varies over all distributions on... |
The problem of skewness is common among clinical trials and survival data which has being the research focus derivation and proposition of different flexible distributions. Thus, a new distribution called Extended Rayleigh Lomax distribution is constructed from Rayleigh Lomax distribution to capture the excessiveness ... |
This paper addresses the problem of regularity properties of functions represented as an expansion in a wavelet basis with random coefficients in terms of finiteness of their Besov norm with probability 1. Such representations are used to specify a prior measure in Bayesian nonparametric wavelet regression. |
We study a novel class of affine invariant and consistent tests for multivariate normality. The tests are based on a characterization of the standard $d$-variate normal distribution by means of the unique solution of an initial value problem connected to a partial differential equation, which is motivated by a multiva... |
Let $A$ and $B$ be independent, central Wishart matrices in $p$ variables with common covariance and having $m$ and $n$ degrees of freedom, respectively. The distribution of the largest eigenvalue of $(A+B)^{-1}B$ has numerous applications in multivariate statistics, but is difficult to calculate exactly. |
Particle filters (PFs) is a class of Monte Carlo algorithms that propagate over time a set of $N\in\mathbb{N}$ particles which can be used to estimate, in an online fashion, the sequence of filtering distributions $(\hat{\eta}_t)_{t\geq 1}$ defined by a state-space model. Despite the popularity of PFs, the study of th... |
Estimating parameters of drift and diffusion coefficients for multidimensional stochastic delay equations with small noise are considered. The delay structure is written as an integral form with respect to a delay measure. |
We consider the problem of approximating a given element $f$ from a Hilbert space $\mathcal{H}$ by means of greedy algorithms and the application of such procedures to the regression problem in statistical learning theory. We improve on the existing theory of convergence rates for both the orthogonal greedy algorithm ... |
When permutation methods are used in practice, often a limited number of random permutations are used to decrease the computational burden. However, most theoretical literature assumes that the whole permutation group is used, and methods based on random permutations tend to be seen as approximate. |
We generalize the results of \cite{Capistran2016} on expected Bayes factors (BF) to control the numerical error in the posterior distribution to an infinite dimensional setting when considering Banach functional spaces and now in a prior setting. The main result is a bound on the absolute global error to be tolerated ... |
We propose a novel probabilistic method for detection of objects in noisy images. The method uses results from percolation and random graph theories. |
Hawkes processes are often applied to model dependence and interaction phenomena in multivariate event data sets, such as neuronal spike trains, social interactions, and financial transactions. In the nonparametric setting, learning the temporal dependence structure of Hawkes processes is generally a computationally e... |
This work resolves the following question in non-Euclidean statistics: Is it possible to consistently estimate the Fréchet mean set of an unknown population distribution, with respect to the Hausdorff metric, when given access to independent identically-distributed samples? Our affirmative answer is based on a careful... |
We propose a novel approach to sufficient dimension reduction in regression, based on estimating contour directions of small variation in the response. These directions span the orthogonal complement of the minimal space relevant for the regression and can be extracted according to two measures of variation in the res... |
The problem of constructing confidence regions for the median in the nonparametric measurement error model (NMEM) is considered. This problem arises in many settings, including inference about the median lifetime of a complex system arising in engineering, reliability, biomedical, and public health settings. |
We study the adaptation properties of the multivariate log-concave maximum likelihood estimator over three subclasses of log-concave densities. The first consists of densities with polyhedral support whose logarithms are piecewise affine. |
The Newcomb-Benford probability distribution is becoming very popular in many areas using statistics, notably in fraud detection. In such contexts, it is important to be able to determine if a data set arises from this distribution while controlling the risk of a Type 1 error, i.e. falsely identifying a fraud, and a T... |
The Bayesian methods for linear inverse problems is studied using hierarchical Gaussian models. The problems are considered with different discretizations, and we analyze the phenomena which appear when the discretization becomes finer. |
We propose a new statistical procedure able in some way to overcome the curse of dimensionality without structural assumptions on the function to estimate. It relies on a least-squares type penalized criterion and a new collection of models built from hyperbolic biorthogonal wavelet bases. |
We consider the following data perturbation model, where the covariates incur multiplicative errors. For two $n \times m$ random matrices $U, X$, we denote by $U \circ X$ the Hadamard or Schur product, which is defined as $(U \circ X)_{ij} = (U_{ij}) \cdot (X_{ij})$. |
The choice of the prior distribution is a key aspect of Bayesian analysis. For the spatial regression setting a subjective prior choice for the parameters may not be trivial, from this perspective, using the objective Bayesian analysis framework a reference is introduced for the spatial Student-t regression model with... |
This paper considers a wide family of semiparametric repeated measures regression models, in which the main interest is on estimating population-level quantities such as mean, variance, probabilities etc. Examples of our framework include generalized linear models for clustered/longitudinal data, among many others. |
Bai (2010) and Bai et al. (2012) proposed robust mixture regression method based on the M regression estimation. However, the M-estimators are robust against the outliers in response variables, but they are not robust against the outliers in explanatory variables (leverage points). |
Point processes are finding growing applications in numerous fields, such as neuroscience, high frequency finance and social media. So classic problems of classification and clustering are of increasing interest. |
In this paper, an alternative count distribution suitable for modeling over dispersed, zero vertex unimodality and monotonically decreasing data sets. Though the proposed probability model includes Gauss Hypergeometric special function, it possesses simple and closed expressions for various distributional characterist... |
Covariance operators of random functions are crucial tools to study the way random elements concentrate over their support. The principal component analysis of a random function X is well-known from a theoretical viewpoint and extensively used in practical situations. |
This paper considers the problem of inferring the causal effect of a variable $Z$ on a dependently censored survival time $T$. We allow for unobserved confounding variables, such that the error term of the regression model for $T$ is correlated with the confounded variable $Z$. |
In the multidimensional setting, we consider the errors-in-variables model. We aim at estimating the unknown nonparametric multivariate regression function with errors in the covariates. |
This note considers a finite dimensional statistical model for the Calderón problem with piecewise constant conductivities. In this setting it is shown that injectivity of the forward map and its linearisation suffice to prove the invertibility of the information operator, resulting in a Bernstein--von-Mises theorem a... |
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