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Many statistical models have likelihoods which are intractable: it is impossible or too expensive to compute the likelihood exactly. In such settings, a common approach is to replace the likelihood with an approximation, and proceed with inference as if the approximate likelihood were the exact likelihood. |
We develop a theory of finite-dimensional polyhedral subsets over the Wasserstein space and optimization of functionals over them via first-order methods. Our main application is to the problem of mean-field variational inference, which seeks to approximate a distribution $\pi$ over $\mathbb{R}^d$ by a product measure... |
This paper consider penalized empirical loss minimization of convex loss functions with unknown non-linear target functions. Using the elastic net penalty we establish a finite sample oracle inequality which bounds the loss of our estimator from above with high probability. |
We consider an unknown response function $f$ defined on $\Delta=[0,1]^d$, $1\le d\le\infty$, taken at $n$ random uniform design points and observed with Gaussian noise of known variance. Given a positive sequence $r_n\to 0$ as $n\to\infty$ and a known function $f_0 \in L_2(\Delta)$, we propose, under general condition... |
We provide conditions for the stochastic dominance comparisons of a risk $X$ and an associated risk $X+Z$, where $Z$ represents the uncertainty due to the environment and where $X$ and $Z$ can be dependent. The comparisons depend on both the copula $C$ between the distributions of $X$ and $Z$ and on the distribution o... |
Kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD) is a widely used kernel-based measure of discrepancy between probability measures. It is often employed in the scenario where a user has a collection of samples from a candidate probability measure and wishes to compare them against a specified target probability measure. |
We provide in this paper a fully adaptive penalized procedure to select a covariance among a collection of models observing i.i.d replications of the process at fixed observation points. For this we generalize previous results of Bigot and al. and propose to use a data driven penalty to obtain an oracle inequality for... |
Almost sure convergence rates for linear algorithms $h_{k+1} = h_k +\frac{1}{k^\chi} (b_k-A_kh_k)$ are studied, where $\chi\in(0,1)$, $\{A_{k}\}_{k=1}^\infty$ are symmetric, positive semidefinite random matrices and $\{b_{k}\}_{k=1}^\infty$ are random vectors. It is shown that $|h_n- A^{-1}b|=o(n^{-\gamma})$ a.s. for ... |
We consider the sampling problem for functional PCA (fPCA), where the simplest example is the case of taking time samples of the underlying functional components. More generally, we model the sampling operation as a continuous linear map from $\mathcal{H}$ to $\mathbb{R}^m$, where the functional components to lie in s... |
Research on nearest-neighbor methods tends to focus somewhat dichotomously either on the statistical or the computational aspects -- either on, say, Bayes consistency and rates of convergence or on techniques for speeding up the proximity search. This paper aims at bridging these realms: to reap the advantages of fast... |
We study the Cramér type moderate deviation for partial sums of random fields by applying the conjugate method. The results are applicable to the partial sums of linear random fields with short or long memory and to nonparametric regression with random field errors. |
This paper develops the theoretical framework and the equations of a new robust Generalized Maximum-likelihood-type Unscented Kalman Filter (GM-UKF) that is able to suppress observation and innovation outliers while filtering out non-Gaussian measurement noise. Because the errors of the real and reactive power measure... |
In this paper, we introduce a new extension of the generalized linear failure rate distributions. It includes some well-known lifetime distributions such as extension of generalized exponential and generalized linear failure rate distributions as special sub-models. |
We are presenting a method of linear regression based on Gram-Schmidt orthogonal projection that does not compute a pseudo-inverse matrix. This is useful when we want to make several regressions with random data vectors for simulation purposes. |
Let $X = \{X_{u}\}_{u \in U}$ be a real-valued Gaussian process indexed by a set $U$. It can be thought of as an undirected graphical model with every random variable $X_{u}$ serving as a vertex. |
The ``sample amplification'' problem formalizes the following question: Given $n$ i.i.d. samples drawn from an unknown distribution $P$, when is it possible to produce a larger set of $n+m$ samples which cannot be distinguished from $n+m$ i.i.d. samples drawn from $P$? In this work, we provide a firm statistic... |
We consider unbiased estimation of a sparse nonrandom vector corrupted by additive white Gaussian noise. We show that while there are infinitely many unbiased estimators for this problem, none of them has uniformly minimum variance. |
This paper investigates limiting spectral distribution of a high-dimensional Kendall's rank correlation matrix. The underlying population is allowed to have general dependence structure. |
In Gaussian graphical models, the zero entries in the precision matrix determine the dependence structure, so estimating that sparse precision matrix and, thereby, learning this underlying structure, is an important and challenging problem. We propose an empirical version of the $G$-Wishart prior for sparse precision ... |
We establish minimax convergence rates for classification of functional data and for nonparametric regression with functional design variables. The optimal rates are of logarithmic type under smoothness constraints on the functional density and the regression mapping, respectively. |
We establish a generic theoretical tool to construct probabilistic bounds for algorithms where the output is a subset of objects from an initial pool of candidates (or more generally, a probability distribution on said pool). This general device, dubbed "Occam's hammer'', acts as a meta layer when a pr... |
This paper presents the nonparametric inference for nonlinear volatility functionals of general multivariate Itô semimartingales, in high-frequency and noisy setting. Pre-averaging and truncation enable simultaneous handling of noise and jumps. |
General classes of bivariate distributions are well studied in literature. Most of these classes are proposed via a copula formulation or extensions of some characterisation properties in the univariate case. |
In this paper, we determine which non-random sampling of fixed size gives the best linear predictor of the sum of a finite spatial population. We employ different multiscale superpopulation models and use the minimum mean-squared error as our optimality criterion. |
This paper deals with minimax rates of convergence for estimation of density functions on the real line. The densities are assumed to be location mixtures of normals, a global regularity requirement that creates subtle difficulties for the application of standard minimax lower bound methods. |
Lai and Robbins (1985) and Lai (1987) provided efficient parametric solutions to the multi-armed bandit problem, showing that arm allocation via upper confidence bounds (UCB) achieves minimum regret. These bounds are constructed from the Kullback-Leibler information of the reward distributions, estimated from specifie... |
We address the questions of identifying pairs of interacting neurons from the observation of their spiking activity. The neuronal network is modeled by a system of interacting point processes with memory of variable length. |
Tang and Xu [Biometrika 101 (2014) 333-350] applied the minimum $\beta$-aberration criterion to selecting optimal designs for screening quantitative factors. They provided a statistical justification showing that minimum $\beta$-aberration criterion minimizes contamination of nonnegligible $k$th-order effects on the e... |
Maximum-type statistics of certain functions of the sample covariance matrix of high-dimensional vector time series are studied to statistically confirm or reject the null hypothesis that a data set has been collected under normal conditions. The approach generalizes the case of the maximal deviation of the sample aut... |
In this paper, a new family of resampling-based penalization procedures for model selection is defined in a general framework. It generalizes several methods, including Efron's bootstrap penalization and the leave-one-out penalization recently proposed by Arlot (2008), to any exchangeable weighted bootstrap resamp... |
There is a lack of point process models on linear networks. For an arbitrary linear network, we consider new models for a Cox process with an isotropic pair correlation function obtained in various ways by transforming an isotropic Gaussian process which is used for driving the random intensity function of the Cox pro... |
We revisit the classical problem of nonparametric density estimation but impose local differential privacy constraints. Under such constraints, the original multivariate data $X_1,\ldots,X_n \in \mathbb{R}^d$ cannot be directly observed, and all estimators are functions of the randomised output of a suitable privacy m... |
We construct a novel estimator for the diffusion coefficient of the limiting homogenized equation, when observing the slow dynamics of a multiscale model, in the case when the slow dynamics are of bounded variation. Previous research suggests subsampling the data on fixed intervals and computing the corresponding quad... |
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the asymptotic behavior of the Durbin-Watson statistic for the stable $p-$order autoregressive process when the driven noise is given by a first-order autoregressive process. It is an extension of the previous work of Bercu and Proïa devoted to the particular case $p=1$. |
Given a composite null hypothesis H, test supermartingales are non-negative supermartingales with respect to H with initial value 1. Large values of test supermartingales provide evidence against H. As a result, test supermartingales are an effective tool for rejecting H, particularly when the p-values obtained are ve... |
In many applications, the dataset under investigation exhibits heterogeneous regimes that are more appropriately modeled using piece-wise linear models for each of the data segments separated by change-points. Although there have been much work on change point linear regression for the low dimensional case, high-dimen... |
We propose a new approach to sequential testing which is an adaptive (on-line) extension of the (off-line) framework developed in [10]. It relies upon testing of pairs of hypotheses in the case where each hypothesis states that the vector of parameters underlying the dis- tribution of observations belongs to a convex ... |
Recent studies show that transformer-based architectures emulate gradient descent during a forward pass, contributing to in-context learning capabilities - an ability where the model adapts to new tasks based on a sequence of prompt examples without being explicitly trained or fine tuned to do so. This work investigat... |
We provide a framework for empirical process theory of locally stationary processes using the functional dependence measure. Our results extend known results for stationary Markov chains and mixing sequences by another common possibility to measure dependence and allow for additional time dependence. |
In the present note we consider the problem of constructing honest and adaptive confidence sets for the matrix completion problem. For the Bernoulli model with known variance of the noise we provide a realizable method for constructing confidence sets that adapt to the unknown rank of the true matrix. |
We study the problem of stationarity and ergodicity for autoregressive multinomial logistic time series models which possibly include a latent process and are defined by a GARCH-type recursive equation. We improve considerably upon the existing results related to stationarity and ergodicity conditions of such models. |
This paper reports on recent results related to audiophonic signals encoding using time-scale and time-frequency transform. More precisely, non-linear, structured approximations for tonal and transient components using local cosine and wavelet bases will be described, yielding expansions of audio signals in the form t... |
This paper shows how to use the Kohonen algorithm to represent multidimensional data, by exploiting the self-organizing property. It is possible to get such maps as well for quantitative variables as for qualitative ones, or for a mixing of both. |
The paper deals with the problem of estimating the M$^2$ (i.e. multivariate and multidimensional) spectral density function of a stationary random process or random field. We propose the $f$-truncated periodogram, i.e. a truncated periodogram where the truncation point is a suitable function $f$ of the sample size. |
We consider the problem of estimating a mixture of power series distributions with infinite support, to which belong very well-known models such as Poisson, Geometric, Logarithmic or Negative Binomial probability mass functions. We consider the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) and show that, under ve... |
Normal mixture distributions are arguably the most important mixture models, and also the most technically challenging. The likelihood function of the normal mixture model is unbounded based on a set of random samples, unless an artificial bound is placed on its component variance parameter. |
The nonlinear effects of environmental variability on species abundance plays an important role in the maintenance of ecological diversity. Nonetheless, many common models use parametric nonlinear terms pre-determining ecological conclusions. |
We consider linear models for stochastic dynamics. To any such model can be associated a network (namely a directed graph) describing which degrees of freedom interact under the dynamics. |
Two requirements for pivoting a cumulative distribution function (CDF) in order to construct exact confidence intervals or bounds for a real-valued parameter $\theta$ are the monotonicity of this CDF with respect to $\theta$ and the existence of solutions of some pertinent equations for $\theta$. The second requiremen... |
Contemporary data assimilation often involves millions of prediction variables. The classical Kalman filter is no longer computationally feasible in such a high dimensional context. |
The network flow optimization approach is offered for Bayesian segmentation of gray-scale and color images. It is supposed image pixels are characterized by a feature function taking finite number of arbitrary rational values (it can be either intensity values or other characteristics of images). |
Understanding the effects of the choice of the tree on the joint distribution of a tree-structured Markov random field (MRF) is crucial for fully exploiting the intelligibility of such probabilistic graphical models. Tools must be developed in this regard: this is the overarching objective of this paper. |
For $\mathcal{O}$ a bounded domain in $\mathbb{R}^d$ and a given smooth function $g:\mathcal{O}\to\mathbb{R}$, we consider the statistical nonlinear inverse problem of recovering the conductivity $f>0$ in the divergence form equation $$ <br>\nabla\cdot(f\nabla u)=g\ \textrm{on}\ \mathcal{O}, \quad <br>u=0\ \textrm{o... |
We present a new method for high-dimensional linear regression when a scale parameter of the additive errors is unknown. The proposed estimator is based on a penalized Huber $M$-estimator, for which theoretical results on estimation error have recently been proposed in high-dimensional statistics literature. |
A model for a subject's beliefs about a phenomenon may exhibit symmetry, in the sense that it is invariant under certain transformations. On the other hand, such a belief model may be intended to represent that the subject believes or knows that the phenomenon under study exhibits symmetry. |
An empirical Bayes problem has an unknown prior to be estimated from data. The predictive recursion (PR) algorithm provides fast nonparametric estimation of mixing distributions and is ideally suited for empirical Bayes applications. |
We study in this paper the problem of least absolute deviation (LAD) regression for high-dimensional heavy-tailed time series which have finite $\alpha$-th moment with $\alpha \in (1,2]$. To handle the heavy-tailed dependent data, we propose a Catoni type truncated minimization problem framework and obtain an $\mathca... |
The problem of estimating the shift (or, equivalently, the center of symmetry) of an unknown symmetric and periodic function $f$ observed in Gaussian white noise is considered. Using the blockwise Stein method, a penalized profile likelihood with a data-driven penalization is introduced so that the estimator of the ce... |
This paper investigates the detection and estimation of a single change in high-dimensional linear models. We derive minimax lower bounds for the detection boundary and the estimation rate, which uncover a phase transition governed the sparsity of the covariance-weighted differential parameter. |
To perform statistical inference for time series, one should be able to assess if they present deterministic or stochastic trends. For univariate analysis one way to detect stochastic trends is to test if the series has unit roots, and for multivariate studies it is often relevant to search for stationary linear relat... |
We study predictive density estimation under Kullback-Leibler loss in $\ell_0$-sparse Gaussian sequence models. We propose proper Bayes predictive density estimates and establish asymptotic minimaxity in sparse models. |
We study the fundamental problem of calibrating a linear binary classifier of the form $\sigma(\hat{w}^\top x)$, where the feature vector $x$ is Gaussian, $\sigma$ is a link function, and $\hat{w}$ is an estimator of the true linear weight $w^\star$. By interpolating with a noninformative $\textit{chance classifier}$,... |
Accurate traffic demand estimation is critical for the dynamic evaluation and optimization of signalized intersections. Existing studies based on connected vehicle (CV) data are designed for a single phase only and have not sufficiently studied the real-time traffic demand estimation for oversaturated traffic conditio... |
A log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) is a doubly stochastic construction consisting of a Poisson point process with a random log-intensity given by a Gaussian random field. Statistical methodology have mainly been developed for LGCPs defined in the $d$-dimensional Euclidean space. |
The AMP Markov property is a recently proposed alternative Markov property for chain graphs. In the case of continuous variables with a joint multivariate Gaussian distribution, it is the AMP rather than the earlier introduced LWF Markov property that is coherent with data-generation by natural block-recursive regress... |
This paper deals with the extreme value analysis for the triangular arrays, which appear when some parameters of the mixture model vary as the number of observations grow. When the mixing parameter is small, it is natural to associate one of the components with "an impurity" (in case of regularly varying distr... |
Gibbs point processes (GPPs) constitute a large and flexible class of spatial point processes with explicit dependence between the points. They can model attractive as well as repulsive point patterns. |
It is a standard criterium in statistics to define an optimal estimator the one with the minimum variance. Thus, the optimality is proved with inequality among variances of competing estimators. |
Many causal and structural effects depend on regressions. Examples include policy effects, average derivatives, regression decompositions, average treatment effects, causal mediation, and parameters of economic structural models. |
We consider integer-valued GARCH processes, where the count variable conditioned on past values of the count and state variables follows a so-called Skellam distribution. Using arguments for contractive Markov chains we prove that the process has a unique stationary regime. |
It is a well-known fact that multivariate Student $t$ distributions converge to multivariate Gaussian distributions as the number of degrees of freedom $\nu$ tends to infinity, irrespective of the dimension $k\geq1$. In particular, the Student's value at the mode (that is, the normalizing constant obtained by eval... |
Up to date, only lower and upper bounds for the optimal configuration of a Square Array (A2) Group Testing (GT) algorithm are known. We establish exact analytical formulae and provide a couple of applications of our result. |
The Burr III distribution is used in a wide variety of fields of lifetime data analysis, reliability theory, and financial literature, etc. It is defined on the positive axis and has two shape parameters, say $c$ and $k$. |
The best-known and most commonly used distribution-property estimation technique uses a plug-in estimator, with empirical frequency replacing the underlying distribution. We present novel linear-time-computable estimators that significantly "amplify" the effective amount of data available. |
A test of the null hypothesis that a hazard rate is monotone nondecreasing, versus the alternative that it is not, is proposed. Both the test statistic and the means of calibrating it are new. |
We consider the stochastic heat equation whose solution is observed discretely in space and time. An asymptotic analysis of power variations is presented including the proof of a central limit theorem. |
Driven by a wide range of applications, many principal subspace estimation problems have been studied individually under different structural constraints. This paper presents a unified framework for the statistical analysis of a general structured principal subspace estimation problem which includes as special cases n... |
Some integral properties of Jack polynomials, hypergeometric functions and invariant polynomials are studied for real normed division algebras. |
In this work, we provide robust bounds on the tail probabilities and the tail index of heavy-tailed distributions in the context of model misspecification. They are defined as the optimal value when computing the worst-case tail behavior over all models within some neighborhood of the reference model. |
In the context of large-scale multiple testing, hypotheses are often accompanied with certain prior information. In this paper, we present a single-index modulated (SIM) multiple testing procedure, which maintains control of the false discovery rate while incorporating prior information, by assuming the availability o... |
An important question in statistical network analysis is how to estimate models of discrete and dependent network data with intractable likelihood functions, without sacrificing computational scalability and statistical guarantees. We demonstrate that scalable estimation of random graph models with dependent edges is ... |
In this paper, we propose some estimators for the parameters of a statistical model based on Kullback-Leibler divergence of the survival function in continuous setting. We prove that the proposed estimators are subclass of "generalized estimating equations" estimators. |
We are deeply appreciative of the initiative of the editor, Marina Vanucci, in commissioning a discussion of our paper, and extremely grateful to all the discussants for their insightful and thought-provoking comments. We respond to the discussions in alphabetical order [<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1409.5291" data-... |
Best linear unbiased prediction is well known for its wide range of applications including small area estimation. While the theory is well established for mixed linear models and under normality of the error and mixing distributions, the literature is sparse for nonlinear mixed models under nonnormality of the error o... |
We consider two continuous Itô semimartingales observed with noise and sampled at stopping times in a nonsynchronous manner. In this article we establish a central limit theorem for the pre-averaged Hayashi-Yoshida estimator of their integrated covariance in a general endogenous time setting. |
Under certain conditions, the largest eigenvalue of a sample covariance matrix undergoes a well-known phase transition when the sample size $n$ and data dimension $p$ diverge proportionally. In the subcritical regime, this eigenvalue has fluctuations of order $n^{-2/3}$ that can be approximated by a Tracy-Widom distri... |
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a classical method for reducing the dimensionality of data by projecting them onto a subspace that captures most of their variation. Effective use of PCA in modern applications requires understanding its performance for data that are both high-dimensional and heteroscedastic. |
In nonparametric statistics an optimality criterion for estimation procedures is provided by the minimax rate of convergence. However this classical point of view is subject to controversy as it requires to look for the worst behaviour reached by an estimation procedure in a given space. |
The paper presents a novel asymptotic distribution for a mle when the log--likelihood is strictly concave in the parameter for all data points; for example, the exponential family. The new asymptotic distribution can be seen as a refinement of the usual normal asymptotic distribution and is comparable to an Edgeworth ... |
Certain tasks in high-dimensional statistics become easier when the underlying distribution satisfies a local-to-global property called approximate tensorization of entropy (ATE). For example, the Glauber dynamics Markov chain of an ATE distribution mixes fast and can produce approximate samples in a small amount of t... |
In this work we present a simple estimation procedure for a general frailty model for analysis of prospective correlated failure times. Earlier work showed this method to perform well in a simulation study. |
The subject of this work is two treatment groups random coefficient regression models, in which observational units receive some group-specific treatments. We provide A- and D-optimality criteria for the estimation of the fixed parameter and the prediction of the random effects. |
Recent years have witnessed much progress on Gaussian and bootstrap approximations to the distribution of max-type statistics of sums of independent random vectors with dimension $d$ large relative to the sample size $n$. However, for any number of moments $m>2$ that the summands may possess, there exist distributi... |
A transmitted, unknown radar signal is observed at the receiver through more than one path in additive noise. The aim is to recover the waveform of the intercepted signal and to simultaneously estimate the direction of arrival (DOA). |
The estimation of the Lévy density, the infinite-dimensional parameter controlling the jump dynamics of a Lévy process, is considered here under a discrete-sampling scheme. In this setting, the jumps are latent variables, the statistical properties of which can be assessed when the frequency and time horizon of observ... |
In the Gaussian sequence model $Y=\mu+\xi$, we study the likelihood ratio test (LRT) for testing $H_0: \mu=\mu_0$ versus $H_1: \mu \in K$, where $\mu_0 \in K$, and $K$ is a closed convex set in $\mathbb{R}^n$. In particular, we show that under the null hypothesis, normal approximation holds for the log-likelihood rati... |
Asymptotics of maximum likelihood estimation for $\alpha$-stable law are analytically investigated with a continuous parameterization. The consistency and asymptotic normality are shown on the interior of the whole parameter space. |
We consider the problem of estimating the mean of a normal distribution under the following constraint: the estimator can access only a single bit from each sample from this distribution. We study the squared error risk in this estimation as a function of the number of samples and one-bit measurements $n$. |
The analysis of high dimensional survival data is challenging, primarily due to the problem of overfitting which occurs when spurious relationships are inferred from data that subsequently fail to exist in test data. Here we propose a novel method of extracting a low dimensional representation of covariates in surviva... |
Spatial-temporal linear model and the corresponding likelihood-based statistical inference are important tools for the analysis of spatial-temporal lattice data. In this paper, we study the asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimates under a general asymptotic framework for spatial-temporal linear models. |
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