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ERROR: type should be string, got "https://t.co/FJrfS3TODo @NeysunM “Go see for yourself” This interview did not make me especially interested in reading the book tbh For me this was “endogeneity” @rzhongnotes Same! No. I feel like I, as an elder millennial, am sitting right on top of a generational chasm in opinions about TikTok. (In other words I love it, might even be mildly obsessed, but I also recognize it can be very problematic.) Will be interesting to see how all the joint venture and study away sites in China end up responding - my sense is they haven’t fully grappled with this change yet. “The problem with the “who lost China” debate of the 1950s was not that the Senate got the answer wrong…but rather that it was a bad question to begin with.” https://t.co/9BmnqAd8vC “For many Chinese students, Taiwan is just a jumping-off point for other opportunities outside of Asia. Many do not want to go back to China — it is too hard to find a job these days — so they hope to move to the United States, United Kingdom, or Europe.” https://t.co/bLsCdWkrER @rzhongnotes Fair but I enjoy the existence of this possibility nonetheless Wait On a Taiwan conflict: “American defence officials say they might see unambiguous signs of imminent war, such as stockpiling of blood supplies, only a fortnight ahead.” https://t.co/JV7TdtQ7VH “Ukraine was an opportunity the military leadership wanted to seize” - sounds from this report like the PLA wants tech over the training they so badly need. https://t.co/wA6wDjNpFn https://t.co/L8SLdE8Vop .@cfmeyskens reminds us: “Seemingly only by quashing Chinese sympathy for the United States do contemporary CCP leaders think they can fulfill their longstanding political mission of overcoming China’s century of humiliation.” https://t.co/BBk2Vja0Fg 👇 True, but at the same time, the appetite among business leaders to get back to normal with China is underappreciated. “…if Chinese decision-makers once believed that a first-tier economy was too big to sanction, this past year has been disconcerting.” https://t.co/pA2nxPvjN6 @fatbits But for flight circuit breakers I would have been there as well @yaling_jiang ❤️ Spoiler: I never did return https://t.co/WPpBrxnkyx Casual racism from a sitting Mississippi state legislator: https://t.co/JmhVQVjKIy @gnrosenberg I am having steak in Reykjavik and intend to remain in blissful ignorance of whatever online nonsense I missed tyvm @gnrosenberg Here for this subtweet even if I do not know its intended target Have been wondering about this @damienics My reaction exactly All this over a balloon. 🎈 “18. Your stunning and ruinous surroundings make you suspect that the apocalypse is near, has happened, or is currently happening, though nobody seems able to name why things are the way they are.” https://t.co/MSJBGnSlMh @georgelazenby Oh that is absolutely in the mix This detail makes me wonder if this is truly an unusual change or if someone is leaking to fire up nascent China hawks: “This type of activity is not unprecedented…but the difference this time is the balloon is staying over the U.S. longer than usual.” https://t.co/eX3MbrlZNe “Minihan, Cotton and McCaul are correctly reading the Great-Power-Competition room. Biden's team prefers to deny that they've furnished the room in such a fashion.” https://t.co/sAadjbmtfj Translation may go away as a selling point for analysts but I suspect it will take longer than we think. Plus, the corpus of Chinese-language texts is enormous (& partially offline), so curation + interpretation like @ZichenWanghere provides will remain crucial. “Washington’s endgame for this conflict has always been hazy. Does it seek to compel specific changes in Beijing’s behavior, or challenge the Chinese system itself?” https://t.co/J7JTOA9D9T @thian_un We didn’t get through the whole season sadly RIP Tweetbot https://t.co/znIUNIRrpt @thian_un Loved watching this with you! @alexanderchee Gay powers at maximum! @OutInNatSec Do tell @joelight Are you in dc now?? Life update: I am moving to DC in two weeks. Would love to meet up with any China folks who will be in town! 兔年快乐！ I am once again begging students and analysts alike to refrain from starting your essays with \"Since ancient times...\" https://t.co/CQu7LGiEfA @gnrosenberg Entirely fair @gnrosenberg Well tbh I’m not sure what defines this dimension? I pair them but otherwise chaos reigns @gnrosenberg Uhh I guess I’m chaotic good on this 😮😁🌈 Looks like most of the original reports in Chinese media have been disappeared: https://t.co/7FpITXFAxk Yicai reports that these claims were in error; supposedly they refer to an applet being built into the State Council's shipment tracking platform (货运行程宝). https://t.co/yAIMCvSgPo Apparently the platform was built partly to speed up vaccine delivery: https://t.co/Kw7Ym0SomH @HongyuYang14 Absolutely. Also doesn’t map onto left-right in China in the same way as elsewhere, but still… Will never forget the conference I attended in Beijing ~2012 where a speaker asked for a show of hands from people who believed climate change was real. Less than half the room raised their hands. @donweinland Yea not sure - landlord told me building had been sold and demolition was imminent last May, but who knows @donweinland Huh I thought they were supposed to have demolished the complex on the right (my old apartment!) 👇 @alexanderchee I would read the *%#+ out of this Useful corrective thread on some of the commonly held (especially in China, now) assumptions about Omicron’s severity and the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2’s evolution Now where have I heard this sentiment before? 🤔 @chenchenzh I said the same so many times! Thankfully not on television tho \"If there is one issue that both sides seem to agree on, it is that the government is hurting its credibility by not providing reliable data on the extent of Covid outbreaks and deaths across the country.\" https://t.co/1bVKvcl0mf \"...just weeks ago, analysts, Unhedged included, assumed the zero-Covid exit would be phased in. We were all wildly wrong.\" https://t.co/V5MbL5ytag Lab-leak conspiracy theories about Covid aren't going away anytime soon, especially with Republicans in control of the House: https://t.co/LksoAbWYoL “…to the neoliberal university, a tenured professor is just some jerk taking up a valuable adjunct line…Imagined meritocracies mean little to extractive institutions.” https://t.co/X7qsInn7ev \"A doctor at Shanghai No 10 Hospital said staff had been instructed by the city’s health commission to limit Covid diagnoses. 'We are advised to label most cases as respiratory infection,' the doctor said.\" https://t.co/USXMR5F6US Immensely saddened by the loss of @blakehounshell. In addition to being a friend, he took a chance on me right out of college and gave me my first regular writing opportunity for @ForeignPolicy. I’m glad so many others also came to appreciate his talents: https://t.co/tKlKRFt5w8 I will be forever startled at how quickly DC elites let Pottinger recover his reputation after working for Trump I do wonder how long this will last...the mood in Europe is changing very quickly, though recession fears are indeed a major factor. \"Beijing’s main ploy is to attempt to reassure European counterparts that it is willing to use the closeness of its relationship with Moscow to restrain Putin from resorting to the use of nuclear weapons, Chinese and European officials say.\" https://t.co/mPUdQGcSOt U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel says the US is in discussions with South Korea on semiconductor restrictions; South Korean trade ministry says no such discussions are taking place. https://t.co/vNpIEhgRDv ICYMI: Leaked notes from an internal meeting indicate China's CDC \"was told that almost 250 million people in China—roughly 18% of the population—may have caught COVID-19 in the first 20 days of December.\" https://t.co/X6x93WrWTG @DenisonBe @ryancbriggs Happy to come up with some suggestions! I’m traveling through the weekend but if you shoot me a DM to remind me I’ll get back to you next week @dr_tey I think of it more as refusing to offer administrators useful information via that kind of categorization. I want them to focus on the content and nuance in the letter. @dr_tey I used to put a note in the letter that I make a policy of either not doing it at all or giving all students the same rank (depending on what the form requires) @pstAsiatech @CSIS I didn’t make a claim about which applications they were being trained for? ICYMI: Really fascinating interview with @CSIS's Greg Allen on semiconductors and US national security. \"On the Biden administration, this policy is really about training AI models in data centers and supercomputing facilities.\" https://t.co/gdihbgKtpU @HopkinsIT Took me about a month of waiting, too I’m having flashbacks to the first New York and Italy outbreaks @AGhiselliChina I’m quite new to it but seems like a port of the journalism spaces on Twitter for the moment. Mastodon in bio ofc In case we all end up on Post: https://t.co/0iJEr7dvjn So many folks in my Shanghai network now testing positive for the first time @profandrewm But she’s right that the underlying data will still be there, no? @profandrewm She’s not really focused on effectiveness in that thread Contact-tracing apps are (probably) going away, but: @1NRSmith So sorry to hear this. “More than half of Chinese say they will put off travel abroad, for periods from several months to more than a year, even if borders re-opened tomorrow.” Fear of infection and of quarantine on return top the reasons. https://t.co/xn5JSsNcDn “Tesla did not respond to repeated requests for comment.” https://t.co/h5Xu7QqPxF .⁦@evefairbanks⁩ has the smartest take on Twitter’s fall that I’ve seen. “Twitter has also been magic. The jokey mood around Twitter’s failure…may be a way to temporarily push aside the breathtaking awareness of this complementary truth.” https://t.co/aC17CK3LyW “But just yesterday, suddenly, I’m not afraid anymore…When they shouted out ‘Xi Jinping, step down,’ I suddenly felt it didn’t matter anymore. I can report this thing…If they aren’t afraid to say it, then I’m also not afraid to type it.” https://t.co/ksj5nou7t3 @AGhiselliChina @B_Herscovitch @CourtneyFung Was working on a Chinese influence project down under and justified watching for research ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯ @AGhiselliChina @B_Herscovitch @CourtneyFung I enjoyed it! Hearing similarly. We need to be careful not to equate signals that the move away from zero-Covid has *started*, often at the top (which I still think is the case) and an actual easing of burdens for people living through this (which is going to take a long while). “'It’s a bit like a gaydar,' one former EU diplomat quipped about developing an aptitude for detecting Chinese spies. 'Hard to explain, but once you know, it gets easier.'\" https://t.co/k22bjceIGq Wait, now they're more or less denying that long-Covid even exists? \"There are no confirmed sequelae of COVID-19, at least not yet evidence of sequelae\" https://t.co/CZU0RRCB71 Some very good points from @gwbstr's newly reactivated newsletter, especially 1) that no one can agree on what \"decoupling\" means and 2) the US doesn't have much of a leg to stand on when it argues that \"data privacy\" is a core value. https://t.co/0zfpYcoOkk @rzhongnotes Sigh. So sorry you’re going through this. Link: https://t.co/Z20EfMIKkI \"二十世纪八十年代末九十年代初，国际国内发生严重政治风波，世界社会主义出现严重曲折...在这个决定党和国家前途命运的重大历史关头，江泽民同志带领党的中央领导集体，紧紧依靠全党全军全国各族人民，旗帜鲜明坚持四项基本原则，维护国家独立、尊严、安全、稳定...\" Lightly edited machine translation from the Xinhua obituary of Jiang's death: \"In the late 1980s...[a] serious political crisis occurred at home...Jiang Zemin...clearly adhered to the four basic principles to safeguard national independence, dignity, security and stability.\" A severely under-appreciated point. Tsinghua alumni: \"We believe that Tsinghua University should initiate a survey of workers’ living conditions or allow faculty and students to conduct their own surveys and allocate a certain amount of resources to housing workers.\" https://t.co/ugvnDyhMMt Peking University students: \"We believe that the reason for the recurrence of these situations is that without mandatory orders linking epidemic preparedness to the appointment and removal of officials, it is difficult to enforce them seriously.\" https://t.co/ugvnDyhMMt I think this is far from clear. https://t.co/cKkRpsEwuJ Tonight is a reminder that the 老百姓 are worth rooting for. @JurassicDunk @yungkitty404 You’re quite mistaken if you think this involves only a couple hundred people https://t.co/POK8Yl4ohx Even my extremely apolitical WeChat feed is seeing these https://t.co/YdbEfORiZp Years of belief in China that Covid should not be allowed to run rampant, coupled with lackadaisical approaches to masking + vaccinations, make me skeptical that we’ll see the end of zero-Covid soon. We have to remember that many Chinese still support it. But time will tell. 6/6 I suspect there’s no easy way to answer that question, even with Beijing’s resources. 6/x So as usual, this is not just a simple story of the Chinese people opposing an authoritarian government. In addition to well-known concerns about hospital capacity, Beijing needs to weigh public sentiment on both sides here. Is fear of the virus or rage at lockdowns stronger? 5/x …namely, many, many Chinese have been very happy with zero-Covid; @alecash effectively highlighted this for @thechinaproj earlier this month: https://t.co/19lqeMIqF2 4/x There’s an understandable tendency for English-language media to focus on resistance to draconian policies in China, but that can obscure important parts of what is actually happening… 3/x As we’ve been seeing in places like Shijiazhuang and Zhengzhou, fear of the virus is plausibly just as strongly a part of public sentiment as anger about “unscientific” lockdown policies. 2/x Let’s talk about China’s zero-Covid predicament. There’s lots of excitement abroad that the protests around the country might be generating a make-or-break point for the policy in Beijing, but that seems too simplistic a take to me. 1/x Beijing Daily: \"Supermarkets have sufficient stock and supplies are stable!\""

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://t.co/jZt5pmTCt9 @gwbstr Oh, yea, you’re right. That’ll teach me to fire off a tweet too quickly I do miss Taiwan dreadfully @crushspread Yea, people are ignoring all the problems with definition of “cases” and attribution of deaths, etc etc. Easier, but wrong, to take official stats at face value We aren’t talking enough about how odd these stats are. If we take Omicron mortality rate to be about 0.3% (controlling for vaccination status, see https://t.co/7LCwoVOrIq), we should be seeing hundreds of deaths in Guangdong alone. @se_parkinson Following @pxpcxrn7 A few other notable changes went public around the same time Feel this very viscerally; I moved to Shanghai in 2017 and left in 2020. "

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://t.co/m3x51ucSlS https://t.co/cpW998tafz An important point: \"After nearly two years of duelling rhetoric from afar, [Bali] was a chance for both men to assess, in person, the other’s changes since the last time they met, in 2017—adjustments in tone, urgency, confidence, and vulnerability.\" https://t.co/5612wwYnQG It is…fascinating how many people think I need an explanation for this @JElkobi More, true, but not actually sophisticated in most cases Some Chinese websites are truly like windows into a lost internet era https://t.co/5HsXbKTAep Europe is really wrestling with itself over the China question these days Still hoping against hope the Twitter ship won’t go down, but in case it does: @ehundman@mastodon.sdf.org. Please comment with your handle if you’d like to stay connected there! @maggiewittlin @scottjshapiro Maggie. @yzilber Yes it’s an interesting dynamic to watch, like seeing the lurkers come to the fore Suzhou incoming https://t.co/Iw8E8XCBct Now a Pangoal fellow?? https://t.co/lHANNDORvo @rzhongnotes I’m so sorry 😔 @dhnexon Just getting started and still skeptical of the mastodon thing but I’m @ehundman@mastodon.sdf.org (have found if you’re on a non-adjacent server you have to search the full address to find people, and sometimes it takes a minute) @time_137 @gwbstr Yea that’s my favored hypothesis for the moment And even Baidu https://t.co/MYjNkynrrB And now Sanya municipality https://t.co/h3Y5sBgfjZ And now Xinjiang influencers https://t.co/2nw12b4t85 Strange that this morning amidst the chaos of M*sk’s Twitter, the promoted tweets in my feed are suddenly for Chinese provinces and universities. Current “dark season” mood @alexanderchee I forgot about this but now remember doing the same! \"'I used to buy bubble tea at full price without blinking an eye,' said Chen, 24. 'Now I only go to those cafés providing [discount] vouchers.'” https://t.co/U72MO32Gbo “When you see an indication of reopening, local investors react to that very quickly and very strongly...It’s a very different angle from international investors, who are still looking at this as a market with too many unknowns.\" https://t.co/xewNGdQpa6 \"Now, truth can be sometimes a nebulous concept...\" Immigrant silver linings: accidentally bought heavy cream for my coffee and my mornings have never been more decadent “The geopolitical competition can actually be helpful…the U.S. doing more [on climate] can lead China to do more.\" https://t.co/r7gEVLTfhn A generally good dive into Taiwan's situation from @brhodes. Interesting that Tsai has so enthusiastically adopted the DC line about TSMC/semiconductors, calling Taiwan's dominance in the sector its \"silicon shield.\" https://t.co/ummNHCd3wB @niubi Got check says months within taking office but we shall see @danaedholakia Yea, I'm hoping the reporting is just thin here “The market is cherry-picking facts in search of any sign of zero-Covid relaxation...The bottom line to understand China policy is, the higher prominence attached to a specific policy is, the more sophisticated manoeuvre such a policy exit would require.” https://t.co/M0xQfV61xc The relevant quote: \"Beijing is planning to launch a vaccination campaign later this year for vulnerable groups, aiming for 95% of people aged 60 or above to receive two doses, some of the people said.\" One thing that has been puzzling me about this WSJ report: why is there no mention of boosters in the vaccination campaign? Chinese vaccines need to be boosted to offer solid protection (in line with mRNA vaccines) against severe disease. https://t.co/DAB2m1lxcO HBR, 2021: \"If foreign companies in China send a significant portion of their China-based production to the US while tariffs continue to be a dominant decoupling tool under the Biden administration, the impact on revenues and profits could be severe.\" https://t.co/et3cFFYwhU @DrLiuCao Thank you! \"The country will still move aggressively to stamp out even small outbreaks...People will still need to use health codes on their phones to access public spaces, and travelers entering the country will face quarantines and rounds of Covid tests.\" https://t.co/DAB2m1lxcO Canada: \"...an undisclosed senior government official..., who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, told The Globe and Mail that many people in government don’t realize how difficult cooperating with China will be.\" https://t.co/s6IKIFSa6y Hive mind: any recommendations for a VPN to tunnel *into* China for research? Haven't needed one in a while! Wait, did people not think this would (almost) inevitably be the case? It’s a direct consequence of the way the Party operates @lnachman32 I was thinking the same but have no idea how to select a server? Fascinating @Truman518000 Pretty much @GabrielCorsetti The well-reported discussions referred specifically to business executives The rumors about zero-Covid are fascinating but so far I see nothing at all that is concrete except the moves toward easing quarantines for business executives traveling in … am I missing something? @rzhongnotes The mood in Europe is changing very quickly tbh @profmusgrave The texts are truly extraordinary @rzhongnotes Done @rzhongnotes It’s almost like even (former?) journalists can fall prey to motivated reasoning 🤔 Oh okay then: “The HKMA has said that senior executives attending the financial summit can opt to leave Hong Kong—on a private jet—if they test positive.” https://t.co/Ogm0EEHfXo @alexanderchee Loooove @chenchenzh @david__moser Yea, if that’s all, not a big deal @KendrickKuotes @Journal_IS @DrJLHazelton @Pearson_ink Send me a copy please! 👇 This is interesting too: \"China’s State Administrator Market Regulator (SAMR) has shown a willingness to disrupt tech mergers and acquisitions...Because Beijing cannot respond to the US in kind, it may rely on nationalistic indigenization campaigns to save face at home.\" .@rhodium_group on Biden's semiconductor controls: \"Beijing has few retaliatory options. Restrictions on critical inputs like rare earths would only accelerate diversification efforts and hurt exports at a time when China’s economy is already struggling.\" https://t.co/MhFfn5Z0ny @guysflavortown Totally agree that the military (and Navy in particular) are stretched thinner than they should be but that is just as much a matter of mismatched goals as it is of funding Not a Republican in the WSJ opinion pages arguing we need more military spending to \"put American hard power in Mr. Xi’s path before it is too late\" on the basis of uncritically citing the Heritage Foundation's assessments that the US military is \"weak.\" https://t.co/DlKdGvTK5Y And Andy Rothman, contrary to almost all other reads of the Party Congress and Xi, expects Xi to be \"pragmatic\" on the economy, \"primarily because...pragmatism has made China rich and kept the Party in power over the last few decades.\" https://t.co/hkI4dvt9xL \"Wall Street’s most vocal bull\" Marko Kolanovic expects both growth recovery and gradual easing of Covid controls in China soon (it is not clear why, exactly) https://t.co/ZDds31BJc7 .⁦@Bkerrychina⁩ on ⁦@alexjoske⁩’s new book Spies and Lies: “He describes a world my own observations don’t validate, and one I find hard to believe actually exists.” https://t.co/FraCw6R0Se @gwbstr I have questions @gwbstr Oh boy \"...in China, average scores on standardized admissions tests for those accepted into its military academies over the past few years fell well below those accepted into the most well-regarded universities.\" https://t.co/EjBTlJStDP Good news for business types wanting to get back into China more easily: six national regulators jointly \"asked local authorities to facilitate multinational companies’ executives, technicians and their families to travel into China.\" https://t.co/y7x4VnAXhi Jeorg Wuttke: \"We have to get away from the idea that China’s policy is still basically tailored to economic growth.\" https://t.co/dndlxDgEmQ Wow: The Biden admin's semiconductor rules \"'have halved the number of available candidates for senior positions in chipmakers and toolmakers', said a Shanghai-based headhunter.\" https://t.co/ikuoQCyXUw This could be great, and mucosal vaccines are indeed thought to be more effective at preventing infection. Though I'd always heard Chinese traditionally favored injections as the most effective medicine. “The family motto has always been: ‘Keep a fast junk in the harbour with gold bars and a second set of papers’. The modern equivalent would be a private jet, a couple of passports and foreign bank accounts.” https://t.co/UfVME8xnws https://t.co/UfVME8xnws Party Congress fallout: \"Hong Kong equities are at 13-year lows. The offshore renminbi has cratered too. HK’s drop was more than triple the fall in the two mainland benchmarks...This all points to panic among overseas investors.\" https://t.co/l7QpLI8MAE “…the growing competition between the U.S. and China has actually made American citizenship more attractive to many families.” https://t.co/u880ADpeVM @rzhongnotes *hugs* Found in Helsinki https://t.co/1RCTNA4PzH More or less precisely my read of the refocus on security @chenchenzh Yes if that lesson hadn’t already been learned, it had better be clear now @BrianTHart Yep, they had ample opportunity to get him out before the journalists came in if health was the only issue at play @profandrewm I agree that is an important data point but I remain not entirely convinced by the illness scenario @jeeeberts @BeijingPalmer This is technically true, but my sense is that tones are often linked to gestures such that they might be visibly identifiable. Lifting the head for a 2nd tone, that sort of thing “There’s been a lot about the premier-as-savior talk — that these officials could stay around and push back against Xi, but obviously that’s not going to happen.” https://t.co/qfEB8fzuCD Official media running with the illness scenario. Convincing! https://t.co/REc4j78Ltq Beware of certainty from analysts with very little information Tectonic shifts afoot this weekend in China We know almost nothing so far, but:"

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://t.co/lFF7Tmormb You know you’ve been watching China too long when a bust in this dream of a bookstore (see full thread!) looks at first glance like a 大白 China nerds: What are your favorite books (or reports) on EU-China relations? Agree, and I will support anyone who does. But as I have good reason to know, that middle is an increasingly uncomfortable position to be in while exchanges wither and each side hardens their views of the other. Very dangerous: “During a visit to Australia last month…John Bolton said that even if [Trump] didn't make a comeback, it was ‘a near certainty’ that the 2024 Republication presidential nominee would move to recognise Taiwan as an independent country.” https://t.co/kUlNcL6HMw Hu Xijin perhaps getting tired of Covid-zero policies too? “The people must trust the state, but the state must also trust the understanding of the people.” https://t.co/MN3YFGwqFK @ncNewsReader Very minimal @lu12121212 Harsh but fair Remarkable how quickly Taiwan’s political cachet in the US expanded Somehow I'd missed that the PRC decided to sanction the CEOs of Raytheon and Boeing on the basis of their \"involvement\" in the latest arms sale to Taiwan: https://t.co/SSV8AGv5tF \"Insurers have raised prices by 67% on average for political risk coverage linked to China...Insurers are underwriting new policies, but 'cautiously and selectively' in China and have reduced their capacity for Taiwan exposure.\" https://t.co/oZLsV2iJM9 .⁦@joshchin⁩ “One of our most surprising discoveries in working on state surveillance was how unconcerned the Party seemed to be with our reporting…If anything, Beijing seemed to embrace this notion that it was all-seeing.” https://t.co/xmoxn26m4C Covid really brought this dynamic to the fore \"Now the final stage has begun: An official forgetting. As with the Cultural Revolution of the 1960s, Tiananmen in 1989 and other violent campaigns since, the party is moving to erase traces of its actions in Xinjiang from history.\" https://t.co/KFjgQmQoAv Worth remembering amidst concerns Chinese scientists are returning home from US labs: \"U.S. officials and experts say most Chinese scientists who immigrate to the U.S. remain here — and many have made significant contributions to U.S. defense technology.\" https://t.co/mEEOtJRIBc Not great as worries about a Taiwan conflict persist. \"Barring a decision by Xi to overturn the age limits, it is likely that no one with operational expertise will remain on the new\" Central Military Commission. https://t.co/ZtpV24MMo2 Darwin: \"Mr. Dummett said the U.S. and Australian militaries keep using the port, suggesting they have no serious security worries. The U.S. is building a new fuel depot nearby.\" https://t.co/z7Y15M3NJb \"The Biden administration already has used the Defense Production Act and other authorities to invest nearly $200 million...to increase the U.S. capacity to process rare earth elements, such as neodymium.\" https://t.co/fA78Ofd81l Sad: \"Cathay Pacific is a shadow of its former self as a result. Hong Kong has lost its position as a global hub and will struggle to regain it because other hubs have taken advantage of it.\" https://t.co/1N5bhuaqNj \"A security committee in southwest China warned local cadres, 'Don’t simplistically equate \"nothing has gone wrong\" with \"nothing will go wrong,\"' adding, 'At every moment always act as if we’re walking on thin ice, as if on the edge of an abyss.'\" https://t.co/2kfmX1m0pF Republicans against ESG: “How is it again that you can discourage investment in American energy when you own, or when you’re controlling board seats, of an American energy company, but you’re pushing it offshore to a Chinese energy company?” https://t.co/BSDTd2T5DG \"Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has said Beijing could invoke its Anti-Secession Law to seek reunification with Taiwan, in an escalation of rhetoric over the self-ruled island.\" https://t.co/t8EIN1t2Ax The GT on \"a paradox faced by South Korea: the country can't decouple from the US in terms of semiconductor technologies, but neither can it reduce reliance on China's huge market.\" https://t.co/gu1R8EZwSd This was certainly my conclusion Merics: China's “'securitization of everything' extends beyond Xi’s tenure and will continue to define China’s domestic and international behavior until there is a substantial ideological shift.\" https://t.co/RLZwDvx0PJ \"Faced with falling birth rates, authorities in Anhui are gearing up to remove bans on unmarried women having children.\" https://t.co/GjQ3wQkDob \"Local governments in Hubei, Anhui, Shanxi provinces and the Ningxia Hui autonomous region issued notices in April to local hospitals to limit their use of medical and testing equipment to those produced domestically.\" https://t.co/2H1tl78R3z \"...what would happen if supply chains and financial flows between the US and China were cut off tomorrow? What’s the day-one plan?\" https://t.co/2iwxtgI938 \"Unlike in the West — where, politically, robots are viewed with suspicion for their potential to supplant unskilled manufacturing workers — in China, the rise of automation is seen as central to the country’s future growth.\" https://t.co/8FdmLrh08g \"The appeal of a perfectly engineered society is real. How far the model spreads will depend not just on Mr. Xi’s ambitions and performance but on how well the world’s democracies deal with the same set of challenges.\" https://t.co/ax3k7Dy7MC \"'Why do I dare not upgrade my house and my car, even if I have the money?' she said. 'Everything is unknown.'\" https://t.co/fxgLy9q0XO “In one example documented by Chinese media, a police ‘service’ station in Madrid tracked down a man wanted in China for environmental pollution and had him sit down for a video call w/ public security agents & a prosecutor from China’s Zhejiang province.” https://t.co/TqvaoBjAMx @MariaRepnikova I mean I think it is going to remain exceedingly difficult for years, at least Absolutely agree - so many people have set markers like this for the end of zero-Covid and they have continued to be wrong. \"But it is a mistake to look at what Xi is doing this week through the prism of China-Russia bilateral ties alone. Over the past two decades, the Chinese have invested heavily in a policy that builds strong ties with Beijing’s Central Asian neighbors.\" https://t.co/pHh8VubZ0D @GJosephRoche @nyushanghai Thank you! I’ve heard very good things @Schwarz_Michael That’s great to hear! I’ll circle back once I’m settled @katharintai @nyushanghai Berlin is definitely happening soon - will shoot you a note when I make a plan! @GilbertGravis A pet peeve of mine as well, though of course such moves are also intensely personal for most @China_Digital I’ll reach out once I’m settled! Would love to chat about this. @rauaut Thanks! @SPCmonitor @nyushanghai Me too! I miss it. In my new role I’ll of course be continuing my work on China’s politics and foreign policy, as well as starting some new work on China’s technology sector and economic policies. Professional update: like so many others, I’m leaving academia. I’ve resigned my position at @nyushanghai & am excited to say I’ve accepted a Senior China Analyst role with the China Office of Finnish Industries in Helsinki. Please reach out with tips or connections in the area! “Talk of the ‘political properties’ (政治属性) of science popularization is a salient reminder that…the CCP has regarded science…as intimately inter braided with political claims to truth as a source of political power.” https://t.co/Q8fKLOFILr “The nearly three dozen Chinese cities under some form of lockdown represent one-third of China’s entire economic output.” https://t.co/5yT53dFsSg Identifying + studying these phenomena pose huge empirical challenges - especially in China - but doing so can also expand our understanding of crucial phenomena like China's military effectiveness, civil-military relations, foreign policy, & even center-local relations. 8/8 As we've seen in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, assessments of a country's military power will often mislead if we focus on hardware and spending at the expense of the human side of the military organization: training, morale, leadership, motivation. 7/x My data are, of course, incomplete - evident censorship means I can't tell how common refusals to serve are in the PLA. But even knowing it is a concern for leaders has implications for how we should analyze the PLA's likely performance in, say, a China-Taiwan conflict. 6/x (On insubordination happening at multiple levels of the military organization, see, e.g., https://t.co/I1dYRNlUOs. On the multiple potential motivations for such insubordination, see, e.g., my work with @se_parkinson https://t.co/cEvakKQXcx.) 5/x Existing research shows insubordination happens at all levels of military orgs & has many motivations beyond fear of suffering, so this consistency in Chinese reporting on PLA deserters indicates such reports are restricted; desertion, in other words, is a concern for leaders 4/x I find that mainland reporting on this phenomenon is remarkably consistent, typically asserting (1) that only young, inexperienced soldiers desert; (2) that such soldiers all fear hardships and fatigue (怕苦怕累); and (3) that punishments are always severe and varied. 3/x Titled \"Fearing Hardships and Fatigue? Refusals to Serve in China's Military, 2009-2018,\" the piece draws on a new database I have developed of over 200 publicly reported cases of soldiers in the PLA who refused to fulfill their service obligations. https://t.co/QSG91PXl4v 2/x Years ago while I was speaking on military insubordination, a commenter argued that such disobedience must be impossible in China. Today, I have an article out in the Journal of Contemporary China showing that is wrong: disobedience does indeed occur in China's military! 1/x @rzhongnotes I knew I recognized that look Thread: @jerometenk @JohnHolbein1 I’m sure there are others but this is the one I use https://t.co/vquV27CkUc @jerometenk @JohnHolbein1 I have used IFTTT for this for years to great effect! The program I found sends liked links to Instapaper Quite a change for anyone familiar with 田子坊 *was just, ugh Some of these takes are absolutely wild. Not a single one of these actions was Pelosi’s own. https://t.co/HTjh1Zy47W @dhnexon @profptj No but sounds right up my alley! Sure is something to watch, in real time, so many analysts realize that the boundaries of what defines a “crisis” are blurry, contested, and often only agreed upon well after the fact. If this is borne out, looks like the fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis may be a go... One of the world’s preeminent experts on China’s military and foreign policy, on China’s response to Pelosi’s visit: A handful of direct flights are now being allowed into Beijing, after a ban of over two years. https://t.co/IDradiyfzI “Work family” Thread: solid evidence against the Wuhan lab-leak conspiracy theories is now published in a @ScienceMagazine paper that has survived multiple rounds of (reportedly highly critical) peer review. @rzhongnotes A friend was telling me they make some with thicker paper for mixed media now? @AaronLecklider @brianbhalley We love to see it Useful thread assessing a possible Pelosi visit against the context of the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait crisis Should probably note also that this comment was made in the context of calling for “peaceful reunification” between the mainland and Taiwan. Wild story about a bored Chinese housewife gaming Wikipedia: “The content she wrote is of high quality and the entries were interconnected, creating a system that can exist on its own…Zhemao single-handedly invented a new way to undermine Wikipedia.” https://t.co/qGnUHIv6RI https://t.co/73feF76pWA What’s going on with investment in China: shot; chaser. https://t.co/AiXre6nzzG https://t.co/1FNYihjowU Love this take; I always struggle to explain why fluency is such a strange concept to someone who has been studying a language long enough to know it very well. Both in the sense that lockdowns are a brutal blunt-force tool against this virus, and in the sense that interest has waned, allowing Shanghai authorities to do this much more quietly than last time. Extremely disheartening “Mr. Wray said the FBI is opening a new counterintelligence investigation into China roughly every 12 hours. Mr. McCallum said MI5 was running seven times as many investigations into suspicious Chinese activity now as it was in 2018.” https://t.co/9wYivFm0nd @AOHSUsometimesY Whenever it feels comfortable! Took me ten days or so after round 2 (round 1 involved double pneumonia so took much longer) “Li Houchen, a blogger and podcaster, compared Shanghai residents to easily startled birds, on edge because they had exhausted their ability to cope with stress.” https://t.co/W8tWl7vmf1 Now do more flights @profmusgrave American expats: both, interchangeably, depending on context Useful yes, also ramps expectations to be always available to coworkers and bosses up to 110% .⁦@MichaelSchuman⁩ on his truly Kafkaesque experience with getting back into China: “when it comes to China, optimism is a dangerous thing.” https://t.co/6SQyJzMumR @AGhiselliChina Interesting. We haven’t gotten an update yet Anecdotal confirmation: https://t.co/4WlCWG2ZDA Rumors swirling that Shanghai is no longer requiring PU letters for those aiming to enter China on a work visa. See, e.g., https://t.co/bpbh0fPHpY “It’s definitely motivated us, being locked down at school for 40 days. We were able to focus on studying.” https://t.co/tG9FCZv8oA Now this is interesting: “KMT Chairman Eric Chu decried those who call them pro-China. ‘We are mislabelled by some people, some media says we are a pro-China party - it's totally wrong. We are a pro-U.S. party, forever,’ he said, speaking in English.” https://t.co/LzH4IlSNd8 ICYMI: “Amazon will close its Chinese ebook store next year, marking the latest retreat as western technology companies scale back operations in the world’s largest consumer market.” https://t.co/l8TBIbQMM6 “The Biden administration says Xi’s techno-authoritarianism, military muscle-flexing & efforts to subvert the rules-based int’l order require immediate attention. But that urgency is betrayed by a lopsided policy that refuses direct contact w/Xi’s China.” https://t.co/6XCB9dusqm https://t.co/tgaeoSY1B9 “A ruthless, battle-hardened revolutionary and nationalist, [Deng] backed those reforms that promised to make one-party rule…work better…Still, when re-read in 2022, his speech on the reform of party and state leadership sounds like a cry of dissent.” https://t.co/rWhhFjr2ZT https://t.co/1fNW62zspa .@BillKirbyHBS: “The question is not if, but when and how, China will begin to ‘live with COVID-19’…The problem is that under China’s stifling political climate, this notion cannot be uttered, let alone debated.” https://t.co/hVLi4mVAHf @joelight Sounds auspicious to me! “New satellite imagery reviewed by The Wall Street Journal shows that after several years of work in the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai, China’s third carrier, known as a Type 003, may be afloat in coming weeks or even days.” But planes for it aren’t ready. https://t.co/d14BxbsHx6 “There is downside for Xi from zero-Covid but the question is, is it meaningful and what’s the practical impact?” https://t.co/4DsZUv7O0O .@SusannahCPatton’s view from Australia: “China is already winning throughout much of Asia on both the economic and diplomatic fronts, and nothing the United States is doing seems likely to change that.” https://t.co/2AvFQ64pOr “Multiple sources in the Canadian Forces and the federal government tell Global News that Chinese jets are repeatedly ‘buzzing’ a Canadian surveillance plane that is part of a United Nations mission over international waters.” https://t.co/ErKNZmNsEc https://t.co/qt4AONVJLW “We did not find indications of influence of Chinese administrators on Dutch politics…Nevertheless, there is a deliberate drive to step up party building efforts, particularly in those European countries w/a larger number & size of Chinese-invested firms” https://t.co/CzRgsdRydT 👏 @rzhongnotes: “Chinese people are not a monolith. Their speech may be censored, but they remain far from unified in the way they consume news, form opinions on societal issues and think about the future of their country, to say nothing of the world...” https://t.co/xmlcPv5PiT @StevenStashwick Not sure why both can’t have a zero-sum view; this isn’t an either-or situation. And I don’t think many would agree that the US would be happy operating under any form of PRC preponderance .⁦@PeterBeinart⁩: “Even more worrying is the Biden administration’s approach to China, which sees Beijing primarily as a threat to American global supremacy and thus defines relations with the world’s other superpower in largely zero-sum terms.” https://t.co/Ej67rcr5wB “‘Unlike Wuhan, Shanghai never declared a lockdown, so there is no “ending the lockdown”’, said censorship directives issued to media on Tuesday.” https://t.co/P09X06RiT5 “U.S. authorities are ready to implement a ban on imports from China's Xinjiang region when a law requiring it becomes enforceable later in June.” https://t.co/WSTE8YiS7w “The cost of the effort alone, estimated at 200 billion yuan ($30.1 billion), is about equal to the gross domestic product of Estonia…That’s only 0.2% of China’s 2021 output, but could rise to 1.8% if smaller cities follow suit.” https://t.co/i9LeIzBAOZ “‘The United States doesn’t have a significant presence in the Pacific at all,’ said @AnnaPowles, a senior lecturer in security studies…‘I’m always shocked that in Washington they think they have a significant presence when they just don’t.’” https://t.co/6NTF73wbbl “When you are coding, you are also writing comments and setting up names for the variables. Which developer, while writing code, would like to be thinking whether their code could trigger the list of sensitive words?” https://t.co/eV40dQjL7U “Since the start of 2022, there has been a marked uptick in China’s Foreign Ministry and the country’s cybersecurity firms calling out alleged US cyberespionage. Until now, these allegations have been a rarity.” https://t.co/aiGhCGmUs9 Another big incursion into Taiwan’s ADIZ. “So far in 2022 Taiwan has reported 465 incursions, a near 50% increase on the same period last year. The sheer number of sorties has put the air force under immense pressure.” https://t.co/sOwaQrkblv “The end of Shanghai’s lockdown does not mean returning to pre-COVID ways of living."