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DiagRare-Bench randomized evidence and stated-prior experiment

DiagRare-Bench

DiagRare-Bench evaluates how strongly a language model changes its diagnostic ranking when patient evidence changes after a disease-prior feature is accounted for. The public panel contains general-purpose and medically specialized open-weight checkpoints evaluated under the same protocol.

For case $x$ and diagnosis $d$, the primary rank model is

Um(d,x)=γprior(m)p(d)+γevidence(m)e(d,x). U_m(d,x)=\gamma_{\mathrm{prior}}^{(m)}p(d)+\gamma_{\mathrm{evidence}}^{(m)}e(d,x).

The fitted $\gamma_{\mathrm{evidence}}$ is an output-level measure of evidence responsiveness. The paper validates its interpretation by changing the data distribution, assigning evidence independently in a randomized experiment, and measuring sequential diagnostic revision.

Paper

DiagRare-Bench: Separating Disease Priors from Patient Evidence in Language Models for Clinical Diagnosis
Dharini Raghavan, Amritpal Singh
ICLR 2027 Conference Submission

Benchmark at a glance

  • 984 primary diagnostic cases
  • 82 diseases across nine organ systems
  • 25 open-weight checkpoints in the released model panel
  • 27 target/confounder pairs in the randomized 3 x 3 experiment
  • 82 target/confounder pairs in the sequential revision task
  • Negative-control cases with clinically irrelevant text
  • QLoRA supervised adaptation examples used in the paper

Evidence responsiveness and diagnostic accuracy

Main results

Across the 21 checkpoints with identifiable baseline estimates, evidence responsiveness is associated with top-1 accuracy ($r=0.843$). The cross-model ordering transfers to CUPCase ($r=0.662$) and RareArena ($r=0.790$) under a different evidence representation. Baseline evidence responsiveness predicts the finite-difference effect of randomized evidence ($r=0.689$, $p=5.5\times10^{-4}$) and sequential recovery ($r=0.860$, $p=9.8\times10^{-6}$).

The prior coefficient does not receive a symmetric validation claim; it is used as a conditioning coordinate for the specified disease-prior feature.

Sequential diagnostic revision

Files

Path Description
structured/vignettes.csv 984 primary diagnostic cases
structured/ontology.csv disease-frequency metadata and disease-finding relations
structured/vignettes_negative_control.csv irrelevant-text negative-control cases
interventions/causal_grid.csv randomized evidence/stated-prevalence prompts
interventions/sequential_anchoring_cases.csv two-step sequential revision cases
metadata/model_metadata.csv checkpoint identities, families, parameter counts, upstream HF repositories, specialization flag
finetuning/debias_sft.jsonl supervised adaptation examples used in the QLoRA experiment
DATASHEET.md construction, intended use, and limitations

Download

pip install -U "huggingface_hub>=0.34"
hf download Dharini24/DiagRare_Bench --repo-type dataset --local-dir ./DiagRare_Bench

External case-report evaluations

The paper also evaluates all 3,562 CUPCase reports and all 22,901 RareArena cases. Those datasets remain in their original repositories and retain their original licenses and attribution; they are not repackaged in this dataset.

Intended use and safety

DiagRare-Bench is a research benchmark for studying diagnostic decision behavior. It does not evaluate clinical safety and does not establish that any language model is suitable for patient care. A high evidence-responsiveness value should not be interpreted as a deployment recommendation or safety certificate.

Citation

@misc{raghavan2026diagrarebench,
  title  = {{DiagRare-Bench: Separating Disease Priors from Patient Evidence in Language Models for Clinical Diagnosis}},
  author = {Raghavan, Dharini and Singh, Amritpal},
  year   = {2026},
  note   = {ICLR 2027 Conference Submission},
  url    = {https://openreview.net/forum?id=0Eua4EkYht}
}
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